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As you are Our Correspondent In Catalonia, how do you think this one will pan out?

An editorail from Vilaweb
Impedir la normalització del 155 és la manera de guanyar la República

Preventing the normalization of 155 is the way to win the Republic.
Carles Puigdemont is the 130th president of Catalonia and he will continue to be. And there will not be a 131st legitimate president while he does not stop being so on his own accord or by the free vote of the Parliament of Catalonia.

This Saturday has been a very weird day. On the one hand, we can understand that the government of the Republic does not now have the capacity to impose itself on all the administrative structure of the Generalitat, since there have been evident gestures of compliance with the Spanish government. But it is also true that President Puigdemont appeared before the public through the public media and from the government building in Girona, with a clear message, demanding calmness, patience and perseverance and exercising in his capacity as president. Everything indicates that this weird interval we have experienced will be clarified on Monday, when we will check if the government can work normally or not.
If they can not behave normally, many people will experience it as a defeat. I, however, will see it just as the beginning of the game. From a game that, against what can appear, has no clear winner at all. Each contestant has his strong chips, not only Spain. And an obvious proof of this is that the European institutions have stopped the violence that, if you have no doubt, it would have been otherwise. The Catalan government is obvious that he can not do what he wants. The Spanish government either.
We have to understand what happens, assuming that on Friday there have been two decisions that have been overcome. On the one hand, the parliament has created the Catalan Republic and, on the other, the Catalan autonomous institutions have been illegally occupied by the Spanish government, using the excuse of article 155.
The Spanish government makes difficult the administrative exercise of power by the legitimate government of Catalonia. But it is evident, on the other hand, that he has not been able to settle it. Carles Puigdemont is the 130th president of Catalonia and he will continue to be. And there will not be a 131st legitimate president while he does not stop being so of his own will or by the free vote of the Parliament of Catalonia. Perhaps the Spanish government believes its thesis that the government of Catalonia should only be a large deputy. But this is not the case: the Generalitat is mainly the political representation of the Catalan people and the Generalitat still has its president.
The next few hours we will know for sure what conditions the game will have and what we have to do all together. Especially what has to be done by the immense popular movement that has led us to the proclamation of the Republic and which is the most powerful tool that this government has and which no government could imagine. I think we have to wait first to know how the president and his government want to play this game and what the parliament wants to do. Rajoy may have limited the administrative capacity of the Generalitat, but can not in any way limit policy while the president holds office, while the government continues to be the government and the parliament the parliament, but especially as more than two million Catalans are so determined to maintain our democratic rights and our institutions as we were on the first of October.
Therefore, and based on this, it is so important that the attack on the Generalitat committed by Rajoy can not be normalized in public life. This is the first and most important goal now. The battle against 155, and we have to be aware that this battle goes beyond the pro-independence parties, is now the battle to be done, the battle to sustain with the utmost firmness. Because winning it will be to consolidate the Republic.
Spain believes that it can impose its decrees on the administrative structure of the Generalitat and that with that the problem is resolved. But the key question that remains intact, right there, is how Spain thinks that it can impose its illegal norms and its collaborative institution in the town, if the citizens of Catalonia do not recognize it and if there are other institutions , starting with the city councils, who do not do it either.
You can feel as nervous as you like and express as much sadness as you like. But what we have to be aware of is that citizens and other institutions in the country are in real conditions to cause the collapse and ineffectiveness of the anti-democratic regime proposed by Madrid. And that, beyond the specific episodes of these days, achieving this inoperation will be the victory of the Generalitat and the victory of the Republic. ... the game just started.
 
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independentista parties should participate in the imposed december "Soraya" election because the combined unionist parties will only
poll 30%

This figure sounds like pure hubris. But we'll be able to tell whether its anything like realistic by whether they do participate or not.
 
This figure sounds like pure hubris. But we'll be able to tell whether its anything like realistic by whether they do participate or not.

That's what I thought when I saw it. 30% seems low for the three parties: PP, ciutadans and PSC.
 
It looks like PODEM have gone over to the independentista camp, and Podemos, their masters in Madrid, have stood down Fachin, the leader of the catalan party for this.
I watched his speech in the catalan parliament the other day. He is sound. People were speculating then that he would join the fight.

Good on him. It's the people against evil.
 
Assuming Independence is declared (and accepted). What happens next?

As much as I understand this is not a vote for a party, or a party leader - it is a vote for Independence, what would happen next?

"Puigdemont signaled his determination to go ahead with his plans this month by dismissing five members of his cabinet, all belonging to his center-right Catalan European Democratic Party (PDeCAT)."

So, here he is representing a right wing, pro-European party, whilst at the same time promoting a Leftist POV, and dismissing EU membership. Why would anyone trust him?
 
Assuming Independence is declared (and accepted). What happens next?

As much as I understand this is not a vote for a party, or a party leader - it is a vote for Independence, what would happen next?

"Puigdemont signaled his determination to go ahead with his plans this month by dismissing five members of his cabinet, all belonging to his center-right Catalan European Democratic Party (PDeCAT)."

So, here he is representing a right wing, pro-European party, whilst at the same time promoting a Leftist POV, and dismissing EU membership. Why would anyone trust him?

The parliament in Catalonia is hung, like many nowadays. They depend on coalitions. The only options they have are to the left of them. Anti-captitalist CUP are growing, too.
 
Interesting 'side show' seems to be developing, with the Belgian Immigration Minister suggesting they could offer asylum to Puigdemont...

Belgian Immigration Minister Theo Francken, a member of the Flemish separatist N-VA party, questioned whether Puigdemont could be sure of a fair trial and said he could be given asylum in Belgium if he asked for it.

"It's not unrealistic (that Belgium could protect Puigdemont), looking at the current situation," Francken told Flemish-language broadcaster VTM on Saturday.

"Looking at the repression by Madrid and the jail sentences that are being proposed, the question can be asked whether he still has the chance for an honest court hearing."

This hasn't gone done very well with Spain...

The spokesman for Spain's ruling conservative Popular Party (PP), Esteban Gonzalez Pons, described Francken's comments as "unacceptable".

These are "serious accusations against Spain's legal system" which should be "corrected immediately", he said in a statement. Francken has "violated the principles of solidarity and loyal cooperation between EU member states", Pons added.

Belgium could offer Catalan leader asylum: minister
 
Where do you get this majority from? Is it the myth of the silent majority? <snipped>?
None of that answers the question put to you.
do you think independence should go ahead without the majority support of the catalan people?
Note that question does not assume that there is a majority against independence.

Polls are quite often wrong, see brexit and Trump for example.
Overall the polling for the US presidential election gave Clinton a small, but significant, lead. Which was entirely in line with the result. The failure was in the modelling converting the polling to electoral college votes.
 
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It looks like PODEM have gone over to the independentista camp, and Podemos, their masters in Madrid, have stood down Fachin, the leader of the catalan party for this.
I watched his speech in the catalan parliament the other day. He is sound. People were speculating then that he would join the fight.

Good on him. It's the people against evil.
You grow ever more shrill and hysterical. What will you say when something really bad happens?
 
Here's one of those poll thingys to play with.

DNV2h8yWsAAgy8N.jpg
 
He'll start writing bigger and bigger!

With random capitals and punctuation, and perhaps a bit of green ink...

I don't doubt it's all a bit exciting in Barcelona right now, and that the potential consequences if it all goes badly off the rails could be pretty grim, but hysterical language both helps no one and just damages credibility.

The lesson of Peter and crying wolf ought to have been learnt.
 
No. You don't know that. Nobody does. There is absolutely no way the vote count, or the turnout can be verified. Absolutely no way.

At one point, people were even invited to attend polling stations they were not registered at to cast a vote. Who were these people? Were pro-independence supporters running from station to station voting as many times as they could? Votes went missing. Votes were prevented by force. The final count was never independently audited. There is absolutely no credibility in the 'results' given whatsoever. It was all a total fucking farce.

Meaningless as statistical evidence.
Given that I'm sceptical about there being a natural majority for secession, a point I'm about to make to Anudder Oik, it might seem odd that I'm continuing this exchange with you. But again, in your desire to trash the whole thing you overstate it. Amid what was announced, the 90-10 result, on a 42% turnout (from memory), I'm happy to admit the normal standards of an election weren't met. Equally, that there could have been a degree of creative counting. But what we really can be sure of is that there wasn't a majority for remain in that vote. And I'm confident about that because of the reasons that undermine most other conspiracy theories. There would have to have been too many people in on any plot to undermine an election result, too many things to go wrong and too much chance that such a plot would have leaked out.

Yes, it was chaotic, yes it was messy and had the possibility of irregularities, but the idea there wasn't a majority for independence in that vote is fanciful. Oh, and remember that it was Madrid's actions that, largely, led to all that.
 
Where do you get this majority from? Is it the myth of the silent majority? Who has the majority in the catalan parliament? You can't just go, oh, everyone who didn't vote in the referendum belongs to the anti independence camp. Several hundred thousand votes were confiscated and there is always a large percentage of abstention at every election. You cannot do the maths of the referendum by equating a 100% turnout of the electorate, it just isn't realistic.
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I'm not doing any of those things, I'm going off the various opinion polls that don't show a majority for secession. I'm happy to go through the list of points - I agree Catalonia has the right to secede, Madrid's actions have been appalling, ditto the EU, all that. I also hope there is communal resistance to direct rule. But if you want secession, there surely has to be evidence that a majority of the people in the region actually want it. The boycott of the referendum and turnout figures mean that wasn't achieved, despite a very good turnout from pro-indie voters. Yes, that was largely as a result of Madrid's actions. But surely to actually secede, you need consistent evidence of the desire to secede.
 
Given that I'm sceptical about there being a natural majority for secession...

Yes, it was chaotic, yes it was messy and had the possibility of irregularities, but the idea there wasn't a majority for independence in that vote is fanciful. Oh, and remember that it was Madrid's actions that, largely, led to all that.

I haven't said anything other than the result is statistically meaningless. No-one is doubting the majority vote in the referendum result. How that result came about, and how the votes were counted makes it meaningless as statistical evidence. An estimated 2,000,000 turned out to vote. An estimated 700,000 votes went missing - you cannot just assume those 700,000 would have represented similar percentages as the reported vote count. Especially if they all came from a particular region within Catalunya. All I am saying is there is absolutely no way you can rely on the reported results as evidence of anything.
 
I haven't said anything other than the result is statistically meaningless. No-one is doubting the majority vote in the referendum result. How that result came about, and how the votes were counted makes it meaningless as statistical evidence. An estimated 2,000,000 turned out to vote. An estimated 700,000 votes went missing - you cannot just assume those 700,000 would have represented similar percentages as the reported vote count. Especially if they all came from a particular region within Catalunya. All I am saying is there is absolutely no way you can rely on the reported results as evidence of anything.
of course you can, evidence there was a vote for example
 
My difficulty with the analysis of the unconditional separatist supporters here is that they defend anything and anybody as long as they're pro-independence.

The Catalan right, like the Basque, has a murky past of crude 19th century racial theory, including such notions that Catalans were less Semitic and more 'European'. Even in the 50s Jordi Pujol was making crude generalisations about Andalusians.

I don't use this as a stick to beat the present-day Catalan right, they can't automatically be accused of having these anti-x/charnego sentiments today. But it serves to show that Catalonia is just like everywhere else on the Penninsula: they don't get a free pass because they are nationalists. In many ways they are the mini-me of Spain, as I said before.

Catalonia is not magically immune from corruption. Jordi Pujol squirrelled away money abroad.

Some nationalists are right wing , fiscally and socially. Not as nasty as the golpista right of the PP, but not unlike its CD end.
 
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