cathal marcs
Well-Known Member
I'm not a great fan of Pablo Iglesias but Rivera was also a snide prick with him so the circus continues.
Spanish Political News
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Libertad
Sparking up a rollie in the Reichstag
Favelado
J'adore South Shore
After my awful track record of predictions on this, I'll just sit and watch. I've no idea what's going to happen. They had a blank page for the constitution during the transición and this is what they came up with?
Rajoy was blathering on at some PP event this morning. It was on the TV in the bar I was having breakfast in. A man put down his newspaper, stood up and said, "Every day, the same fucking thing. It's on the TV. It's on the radio. It never ends." Then he left.
It was perfect.
Rajoy was blathering on at some PP event this morning. It was on the TV in the bar I was having breakfast in. A man put down his newspaper, stood up and said, "Every day, the same fucking thing. It's on the TV. It's on the radio. It never ends." Then he left.
It was perfect.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
I like how spain just rolls along in political limbo for months lol. If that was here the media and pols would be having kittens about a 'crisis'
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
Belgium went without a gov for 589 days.
Honestly I think Podemos have done exactly the right thing, voting through a PSOE government would have been a huge blow to their credibility without exacting some huge concessions from Sánchez. Even if new elections end up with a PP-Ciudadanos government or a Grand Coalition+Ciudadanos government they just have to wait for the Pasokification of PSOE.
They could so easily have sold out for power and yet they haven't.
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
PSOE y Ciudadanos negociarán a partir de ahora “conjuntamente” con otros partidos
PSOE and Ciudadanos will now negotiate jointly with other parties, how far we've come from Rivera's insistence that he would not prop up a 'coalition of losers' and Sánchez's 'neither orange, nor purple' schtick. It ensures that Podemos can never vote through one of their governments, are Ciudadanos expecting the PP to abstain in a future PSOE+Ciudadanos vote?
PSOE and Ciudadanos will now negotiate jointly with other parties, how far we've come from Rivera's insistence that he would not prop up a 'coalition of losers' and Sánchez's 'neither orange, nor purple' schtick. It ensures that Podemos can never vote through one of their governments, are Ciudadanos expecting the PP to abstain in a future PSOE+Ciudadanos vote?
I really think a PP-PSOE-C's govt is the best outcome for Podemos. Basically then there will be the caste government and the opposition.
Stick another economic downturn in there - and there is one in construction brewing right now on which the Spanish economy is still stupidly over reliant - and prospects are good. I can't help but think there must be a sizeable chunk of Podemos who think that too.
Stick another economic downturn in there - and there is one in construction brewing right now on which the Spanish economy is still stupidly over reliant - and prospects are good. I can't help but think there must be a sizeable chunk of Podemos who think that too.
It is fucking boring though all the yakking, Podemos should make something out of that.
Oh! sorry i replied to my own post. d'oh!!
Threshers_Flail
Well-Known Member
It's only a tormenta en un vaso de agua no? One which El Pais have made sure to exploit.
Favelado
J'adore South Shore
It's hard to see through the fog of the media. There have been other occasions over the past couple of years in which an anti-Iglesias schism has been reported in the press. Some Podemos activists seem to resent both a perceived creep towards a traditional party structure, and a power grab by Iglesias and his inner circle.
ABC, La Razón and yes, El Pais, are certainly going to make a meal of anything harmful to Podemos though. PSOE have a corruption scandal to deal with today, which will take some press heat off the Podemos story. If there's a real civil war going on, then it will indeed be grim to watch it unfold.
Anudder Oik
heinous pointless bellend/fucking gobshite muppet
I guess you had to be there 
JHE
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The crisis in Podemos is increasingly interesting, though reports of what's really at stake in the faction squabble differ from one paper to another and young Errejon has a tendency to speak in his sub-dialect of political academic jargon: "The movement must be built in hegemonic terms" - yup, definitely, but y'know... what exactly does he mean?
Today Rita Maestre, the spokesbod for the Ahora Madrid administration of Madrid city council, has been given a fine of 4,320 euros for her part in a protest some years ago at a chapel on the Complu campus. She and her mates were against having a chapel on the campus of a secular public educational institution and allegedly shouted some pretty strong anti-church stuff.
I don't really agree with their way of protesting, but they were fundamentally right on the question of secularism, the fine is ridiculously high and the offence of which Maestre has been convicted should not even exist. She has been convicted of offending religious feelings. If it is illegal to offend religious feelings, it is impossible within the law to discuss religion fully and freely.
Some of the things that were shouted by the protesters, according to witnesses, were bang out of order, IMO, because they were threats, but merely being provocative, irreverent or blasphemous should not be a crime.
Today Rita Maestre, the spokesbod for the Ahora Madrid administration of Madrid city council, has been given a fine of 4,320 euros for her part in a protest some years ago at a chapel on the Complu campus. She and her mates were against having a chapel on the campus of a secular public educational institution and allegedly shouted some pretty strong anti-church stuff.
I don't really agree with their way of protesting, but they were fundamentally right on the question of secularism, the fine is ridiculously high and the offence of which Maestre has been convicted should not even exist. She has been convicted of offending religious feelings. If it is illegal to offend religious feelings, it is impossible within the law to discuss religion fully and freely.
Some of the things that were shouted by the protesters, according to witnesses, were bang out of order, IMO, because they were threats, but merely being provocative, irreverent or blasphemous should not be a crime.
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J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
She was done for saying 'Vamos a quemar la conferencia episcopal, menos rosarios y más bolas chinas, contra el Vaticano poder clitoriano, sacad vuestros rosarios de nuestros ovarios', 'we are going to burn the episcopal conference, less rosaries and more anal beads (I assume that is how you translate that lol), clitoris power against the Vatican, take your rosaries out of our ovaries'
Frankly I do not see the prob, I agree with the good mayor Carmena, this is an attack on free speech. They aren't serious threats. I do think that the Spanish left goes a bit far with the anti-clericalism sometimes and has done since the Second Republic but when you consider the history of the Catholic Church in Spain it isn't really that much of a surprise that they do so.
Frankly I do not see the prob, I agree with the good mayor Carmena, this is an attack on free speech. They aren't serious threats. I do think that the Spanish left goes a bit far with the anti-clericalism sometimes and has done since the Second Republic but when you consider the history of the Catholic Church in Spain it isn't really that much of a surprise that they do so.
JHE
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...anal beads (I assume that is how you translate that lol)...
When I googled 'bolas chinas' to find out what they were, I didn't get the impression they are usually put in the person's bottom. I think they are generally worn (if that's the right term) in the vagina.
Anyway, is there a report saying that the court found that Maestre shouted what you quote? When I saw reports of the trial (some weeks ago) the words you quote were mentioned and others along the lines of 'you'll burn as in 36', but I'm not sure these were attributed specifically to Maestre.
I can't agree that it's OK to threaten arson and I'm not sure Catholics would agree that such threats are not serious, but I don't think Maestre has been convicted of making threats. According to the reports I saw earlier she has been convicted of offending religious feelings. The prohibition of offending religious feelings is plainly a serious impediment to free speech.
When I googled 'bolas chinas' to find out what they were, I didn't get the impression they are usually put in the person's bottom. I think they are generally worn (if that's the right term) in the vagina.
Anyway, is there a report saying that the court found that Maestre shouted what you quote? When I saw reports of the trial (some weeks ago) the words you quote were mentioned and others along the lines of 'you'll burn as in 36', but I'm not sure these were attributed specifically to Maestre.
I can't agree that it's OK to threaten arson and I'm not sure Catholics would agree that such threats are not serious, but I don't think Maestre has been convicted of making threats. According to the reports I saw earlier she has been convicted of offending religious feelings. The prohibition of offending religious feelings is plainly a serious impediment to free speech.
The Pale King
Well-Known Member
"The only Church that illuminates is a burning Church"
Favelado
J'adore South Shore
Ciudadanos desperate to suck some PP polla now and get them to support their pact with PSOE.
Podemos are going to ask their supporters if they should support the pact. Iglesias said he was disappointed with how attempts at negotiations went. Sometimes as a social democrat (on less ranty days - socialist on angry ones) I read Urban and think it's too paranoid.
Well, it isn't. The Spanish elections have shown that any centre-left party with vested interests in power will do anything it can to stop real lefties getting in, even if it means fellating right-wingers.
Podemos are going to ask their supporters if they should support the pact. Iglesias said he was disappointed with how attempts at negotiations went. Sometimes as a social democrat (on less ranty days - socialist on angry ones) I read Urban and think it's too paranoid.
Well, it isn't. The Spanish elections have shown that any centre-left party with vested interests in power will do anything it can to stop real lefties getting in, even if it means fellating right-wingers.
JHE
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Sometimes I think of posting about:
Polls:
Most people agree that the result of the expected June replay of the last general election will not be very different, but some polls, including the one being reported on the front page of today's ABC, suggest Podemos could lose votes and seats and that Ciudadanos could gain. One recent poll - can't remember which - indicated that between them PP and C could have a majority. The most recent I've seen (below from today's ABC) shows they would be close to a majority. They could probably get a couple more votes from the Canarian nats and be even closer.
Why? I'm not sure but I doubt it has very much to do with splits in Podemos. I think it's rooted in perceptions of who's really trying to make a deal so that Spain can have a proper government and who's not. I think Cs are seen as serious about doing a deal and are benefiting, while Podemos is seen as being obstructive and is being punished.
The perception is not fair, IMO. Both Podemos and Cs have been ruling each other out.
If Cs and PP could form a govt, would they? My guess is that Cs would be reluctant to do a deal with Rajoy still in place. If you want to present yourself as anti-corruption, it doesn't help to put Bárcenas' mate back in office.
On the other hand, if PP people got their act together to replace Rajoy with someone not known to be corrupt - for example, the current deputy PM, Soraya Sáenz de Santamaria, or the President of the Comunidad de Madrid, Cristina Cifuentes, who got her current position with support from Cs and likes to talk about how she's a pol of the centre not the right, or the President of Galicia, Alberto Núñez Feijóo - PP could (i) do better in the election and (ii) stand a better chance of getting C votes to establish a govt.
In Britain, Tories would stick the knives in their leader's back to get back in govt. What's holding back the Spanish right? Perhaps all those years supporting a doddery old dictator turned loyalty to the leader into a bad habit.
- the divisions in Podemos - not just the Iglesias/Errejón disagreement, but others too
- the daft Anarchists finally convicted last month of bombing a cathedral and their loyal, but less than frank, comrades campaigning for their freedom
Polls:
Most people agree that the result of the expected June replay of the last general election will not be very different, but some polls, including the one being reported on the front page of today's ABC, suggest Podemos could lose votes and seats and that Ciudadanos could gain. One recent poll - can't remember which - indicated that between them PP and C could have a majority. The most recent I've seen (below from today's ABC) shows they would be close to a majority. They could probably get a couple more votes from the Canarian nats and be even closer.
Why? I'm not sure but I doubt it has very much to do with splits in Podemos. I think it's rooted in perceptions of who's really trying to make a deal so that Spain can have a proper government and who's not. I think Cs are seen as serious about doing a deal and are benefiting, while Podemos is seen as being obstructive and is being punished.
The perception is not fair, IMO. Both Podemos and Cs have been ruling each other out.
If Cs and PP could form a govt, would they? My guess is that Cs would be reluctant to do a deal with Rajoy still in place. If you want to present yourself as anti-corruption, it doesn't help to put Bárcenas' mate back in office.
On the other hand, if PP people got their act together to replace Rajoy with someone not known to be corrupt - for example, the current deputy PM, Soraya Sáenz de Santamaria, or the President of the Comunidad de Madrid, Cristina Cifuentes, who got her current position with support from Cs and likes to talk about how she's a pol of the centre not the right, or the President of Galicia, Alberto Núñez Feijóo - PP could (i) do better in the election and (ii) stand a better chance of getting C votes to establish a govt.
In Britain, Tories would stick the knives in their leader's back to get back in govt. What's holding back the Spanish right? Perhaps all those years supporting a doddery old dictator turned loyalty to the leader into a bad habit.
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brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
JHE
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A likely novelty this time is that Podemos (and its existing allies in Galicia, Catalonia, the Valencian Region and the Balearic Islands) will go to the polls jointly with the United Left (IU), ie the Communist Party and its allies. IU is polling its members at the moment and it's not completely decided yet, but it's very probable. I think the big obstacle last time was that Pablo Iglesias didn't want to do a deal with his erstwhile comrades. Now he does. Errejón is very sceptical, but Iglesias seems to be winning his faction tussle with Errejón hands down.
The great hope is that the combination of the two left alliances will overtake PSOE in votes and seats. The media love using the Italian word 'sorpasso' to refer to this overtaking. It's not clear yet whether it will happen. Some recent polls have indicated that there will be 'sorpasso' if Podemos and IU combine, but not all polls agree.
If it happens, of course, Podemos will want a deal with PSOE and will try to cobble together enough votes from nationalist parties to form a government. Would PSOE agree? I don't know. Today they said they would never do a deal with PP, which basically leaves Podemos as the only possible large partner, but (i) among PSOE politicians there is a lot of opposition to doing a deal with Podemos and (ii) disagreements over the national questions - most urgently re Catalonia - remain as much a stumbling block as ever. It's difficult to imagine that in the near future PSOE will drop its opposition to the Catalan right to decide. It's equally difficult to imagine the nationalists elected in alliance with Podemos being willing to do a deal which sets aside their principles for years to come.
I would like a government dedicated to bringing down unemployment and for the foreseeable future there is no prospect of a Spanish parliament supporting any right to secede from Spain, so probably a Podemos-PSOE government with an agreement to differ openly over the right to self-determination is the best I can reasonably hope for. It just doesn't seem probable.
The only other possible goverment-making deal as far as can be seen at the moment would be a PP-Ciudadanos deal, but for that, I reckon, Rajoy would have to step down or be ousted by his chums.
If we have another right-wing government probably unemployment will continue to come down, but painfully slowly. The worst was Q1 of 2013 when unemployment reached more than 27%. It's now at 21%. The reductions are expected to slow. I remember the last economic crisis in which Spain had extremely high unemployment. It was at 24% in 1994. It came down gradually, in the last couple of years of González, through the Aznar years and through most of the Zapatero years. It got down to about 8% in 2006/2007 - in other words a dozen years to get down to a level which only seems low if you are inured to horrendously high unemployment. What's more, this time there's not going to be a building bubble creating jobs as there was last time.
Maybe this is the future, more of the same: unemployment, short-term, part-time, poorly paid jobs, emigration especially for the young and skilled, young people's financial dependence on their parents or grandparents continuing even into early middle age and a very visible layer of people who have fallen into utter destitution, but with the level of unemployment slowly slowly coming down and maybe if we're very lucky dipping under 10% before the next major recession.
While on the subject of miserable forecasts, it was reported a week ago (though partially denied the following day by the government) that, for Spain to meet its agreed deficit reduction target this year, there will have to be further cuts of €4,000 million. If this report is correct - and it comes from Spain's equivalent of the Institute of Fiscal Studies - there will be major new cuts after the election, regardless of who, if anyone, forms a new government.
The great hope is that the combination of the two left alliances will overtake PSOE in votes and seats. The media love using the Italian word 'sorpasso' to refer to this overtaking. It's not clear yet whether it will happen. Some recent polls have indicated that there will be 'sorpasso' if Podemos and IU combine, but not all polls agree.
If it happens, of course, Podemos will want a deal with PSOE and will try to cobble together enough votes from nationalist parties to form a government. Would PSOE agree? I don't know. Today they said they would never do a deal with PP, which basically leaves Podemos as the only possible large partner, but (i) among PSOE politicians there is a lot of opposition to doing a deal with Podemos and (ii) disagreements over the national questions - most urgently re Catalonia - remain as much a stumbling block as ever. It's difficult to imagine that in the near future PSOE will drop its opposition to the Catalan right to decide. It's equally difficult to imagine the nationalists elected in alliance with Podemos being willing to do a deal which sets aside their principles for years to come.
I would like a government dedicated to bringing down unemployment and for the foreseeable future there is no prospect of a Spanish parliament supporting any right to secede from Spain, so probably a Podemos-PSOE government with an agreement to differ openly over the right to self-determination is the best I can reasonably hope for. It just doesn't seem probable.
The only other possible goverment-making deal as far as can be seen at the moment would be a PP-Ciudadanos deal, but for that, I reckon, Rajoy would have to step down or be ousted by his chums.
If we have another right-wing government probably unemployment will continue to come down, but painfully slowly. The worst was Q1 of 2013 when unemployment reached more than 27%. It's now at 21%. The reductions are expected to slow. I remember the last economic crisis in which Spain had extremely high unemployment. It was at 24% in 1994. It came down gradually, in the last couple of years of González, through the Aznar years and through most of the Zapatero years. It got down to about 8% in 2006/2007 - in other words a dozen years to get down to a level which only seems low if you are inured to horrendously high unemployment. What's more, this time there's not going to be a building bubble creating jobs as there was last time.
Maybe this is the future, more of the same: unemployment, short-term, part-time, poorly paid jobs, emigration especially for the young and skilled, young people's financial dependence on their parents or grandparents continuing even into early middle age and a very visible layer of people who have fallen into utter destitution, but with the level of unemployment slowly slowly coming down and maybe if we're very lucky dipping under 10% before the next major recession.
While on the subject of miserable forecasts, it was reported a week ago (though partially denied the following day by the government) that, for Spain to meet its agreed deficit reduction target this year, there will have to be further cuts of €4,000 million. If this report is correct - and it comes from Spain's equivalent of the Institute of Fiscal Studies - there will be major new cuts after the election, regardless of who, if anyone, forms a new government.
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JHE
.
The new electoral alliance between Podemos and Izquierda Unida was approved overwhelmingly by IU members (88% of those who voted) and even more overwhelmingly by Podemos members (98% of those who voted). The two leaderships have now decided on a name: Unidos Podemos.
The polls are a bit contradictory, but there's no great change as far as I can see. Some polls indicate 'sorpasso' by just a little bit. On the other hand, at least one recent poll suggests Ciudadanos is up and Podemos down. One indicates that PP is up a little bit, to 30%, and some say this is in reaction to the Podemos-IU agreement, the suggestion being that some people may be going back to PP for fear of the newly-united Reds.
Podemos has been playing quite a good game over electoral lists for the Senate. There is a high risk that PP will have a majority in the Senate despite being very far from a majority of votes. To prevent this, Iglesias and chums have proposed a joint list with PSOE for the Senate. Iglesias' objective is clear: a joint slate with PSOE for the Senate would lead to a big anti-PP majority in Senate and the co-operation with PSOE would, following 'sorpasso', pave the way for a coalition government with Iglesias as PM. It would be very inconsistent of Sánchez to agree a joint slate and then say the parties are too different to form a government together. Sánchez has rejected the joint-slate proposal out of hand (and has started talking about Podemos and IU being the "extreme left"), but some parts of his party wanted to take up the offer, so Iglesias didn't get what he wanted, but he managed to rattle Sánchez, sow a bit of dissension in PSOE and maybe make Podemos look better than PSOE in the eyes of some anti-PP voters.
Still, it all feels a bit like a soap opera at the moment. (In this episode, Pablo and Alberto have a few beers together in Lavapies, put the world to rights and take selfies in Puerta del Sol while expressing their sincere mutual admiration.) Unless something significant changes, there'll still be stalemate after the election.
The polls are a bit contradictory, but there's no great change as far as I can see. Some polls indicate 'sorpasso' by just a little bit. On the other hand, at least one recent poll suggests Ciudadanos is up and Podemos down. One indicates that PP is up a little bit, to 30%, and some say this is in reaction to the Podemos-IU agreement, the suggestion being that some people may be going back to PP for fear of the newly-united Reds.
Podemos has been playing quite a good game over electoral lists for the Senate. There is a high risk that PP will have a majority in the Senate despite being very far from a majority of votes. To prevent this, Iglesias and chums have proposed a joint list with PSOE for the Senate. Iglesias' objective is clear: a joint slate with PSOE for the Senate would lead to a big anti-PP majority in Senate and the co-operation with PSOE would, following 'sorpasso', pave the way for a coalition government with Iglesias as PM. It would be very inconsistent of Sánchez to agree a joint slate and then say the parties are too different to form a government together. Sánchez has rejected the joint-slate proposal out of hand (and has started talking about Podemos and IU being the "extreme left"), but some parts of his party wanted to take up the offer, so Iglesias didn't get what he wanted, but he managed to rattle Sánchez, sow a bit of dissension in PSOE and maybe make Podemos look better than PSOE in the eyes of some anti-PP voters.
Still, it all feels a bit like a soap opera at the moment. (In this episode, Pablo and Alberto have a few beers together in Lavapies, put the world to rights and take selfies in Puerta del Sol while expressing their sincere mutual admiration.) Unless something significant changes, there'll still be stalemate after the election.
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J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
Good summary JHE, was going to write out something similar myself.
Very up in the air as to how the new lash up will do. Polling here from 13/05/2016
The good news here is that the electoral pact between Iglesias and Garzón would get more seats than PSOE but PSOE+IU+Podemos would have less votes than Ciudadanos and the PP. That being said, even then a potential right-wing coalition would be 11 seats short of the majority needed to govern.
BTW, can anyone explain why the Spanish media are obsessed with the Italian sorpasso when Spanish has a perfectly good verb (sobrepasar) they could be using? Am I missing something?
Very up in the air as to how the new lash up will do. Polling here from 13/05/2016
The good news here is that the electoral pact between Iglesias and Garzón would get more seats than PSOE but PSOE+IU+Podemos would have less votes than Ciudadanos and the PP. That being said, even then a potential right-wing coalition would be 11 seats short of the majority needed to govern.
BTW, can anyone explain why the Spanish media are obsessed with the Italian sorpasso when Spanish has a perfectly good verb (sobrepasar) they could be using? Am I missing something?
Favelado
J'adore South Shore
Sorpasso must relate to some specific event in Italian politics then mustn't it?
I'll try and google now.
e2a I'm guessing that due to the historically volatile nature of Italian coalition politics it is a mainstay of elections there, whereas Spain simply doesn't have that history. Therefore, it's an established phenomenon being referenced in its original language.
For something equivalent we can think of the word coup in English. As we haven't had such a thing in modern times, we use a French import word.
I'll try and google now.
e2a I'm guessing that due to the historically volatile nature of Italian coalition politics it is a mainstay of elections there, whereas Spain simply doesn't have that history. Therefore, it's an established phenomenon being referenced in its original language.
For something equivalent we can think of the word coup in English. As we haven't had such a thing in modern times, we use a French import word.
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