Spanish Political News

[J Ed]

To be fair, it does look like things couldn't get any worse, so what have they got to lose?

Yes, that is why they throw the Chavez/Iran/North Korea/ETA bullshit at Podemos and it just isn't working because it is patently ridiculous.

 

[JHE]

There are various things I'd quite like to come back on, but for the mo'...

do Germany really want to be seen as an arrogant bully screwing over the already impoverished greek people?

I don't know whether you intend it as a rhetorical question, but I think (i) it's a good question and (ii) the answer is definitely both yes and no!

Yes: Unless they are just talking tough before coming to a compromise agreement with the Greeks (which seems unlikely), yes, they do want to persuade Europeans that they are tough and will insist on existing agreements. They would quibble with your terminology, obviously, but essentially they want to bully Greeks, Spaniards and others into believing that there is no alternative or that the only alternative will be so awful that it's even worse than the status quo.

I think Coley is mistaken to suppose that things couldn't get even worse. It's true that some have pretty much nothing to lose. (I see some of them every day in this respectable working class-lower middle class neibourhood, begging and scavaging in bins for anything useful, anything saleable, sometimes anything edible - and, believe me, these are not fashionable young student wotsits who have taken up "dumpster-diving" as a lifestyle choice.) However, it would be wrong to think that the generality of people have nothing to lose. Incidentally, important parts of the anti-austerity movement in Spain are based on public sector workers, particularly in health and education - that is, people with something to protect. They are devoted both to the defence of their jobs and careers and the protection of public services from cuts and from other pernicious government policies, eg, privatisation.

No: Merkel and Co would prefer to be seen as prudent statesmen and women saving Europe from its more irresponsible elements. It would be mistaken to to think that hostility to the German policy will be the only reaction in Europe and I am a bit sceptical about it being the predominant one. Merkel inevitably cares about German public opinion and I reckon a lot of Germans will support a hard line against the southern Europeans. They won't see it as bullying but as economic responsibility and the legitimate protection of German interests. Hard-working Germans (and others, maybe) don't want to pay for what they are likely to see as Greek errors, let alone for Greek, Italian, Spanish, Portuguese... ones. This view will certainly not be confined to Germany. Even in Spain, among some people (not potential Podemos folk, obviously) the attitude is more or less 'we've made and are making very tough adjustments and so should the Greeks. It's not fair that we should have to pay for them.'

 

[Kaka Tim]

There are various things I'd quite like to come back on, but for the mo'...



I don't know whether you intend it as a rhetorical question, but I think (i) it's a good question and (ii) the answer is definitely both yes and no!

.'

Yeah - id go along with that. Sure large numbers of people -and not just in germany - aren't going to that sympathetic to greece - but they wont be taking to the streets over it . Greece will get still a lot of support across europe - especially in spain, france, italy, poutugal and ireland - and germany playing the nasty debt enforcer would be far more divisive than some sort of climbdown. Its kind of lose-lose for merkel really - play hardball and be the overwheening bully of europe (not a role the germans will be comfortable with given their history) - provoking a angry backlash and/or greek exit from the euro - or climbdown and give a massive boost to the anti-austerity movements - and get a pile of shit on the domestic political front.

 

[treelover]

From the Observer

Massive crowds in Madrid

We had them once, on the TUC Rallies, what happened?

 

[brogdale]

From the Observer

Massive crowds in Madrid

We had them once, on the TUC Rallies, what happened?

Nothing.QED

 

[J Ed]

New polling

http://www.elplural.com/2015/01/31/una-nueva-encuesta-da-podemos-ganador/

 

[Lo Siento.]

New polling

http://www.elplural.com/2015/01/31/una-nueva-encuesta-da-podemos-ganador/

42.5% for the PPSOE down from 73.4% at the last election (and 83.9% at the previous one)

 

[treelover]

New Poll, Podemos in lead

 

[redsquirrel]

42.5% for the PPSOE down from 73.4% at the last election (and 83.9% at the previous one)

Compared with 65%/65%/68% for the Tories+Labour in the UK (or 73/88/90 if you want to include the LDs)

Be interesting to see the equivalent for Western European countries in general.

 

[Lo Siento.]

Compared with 65%/65%/68% for the Tories+Labour in the UK (or 73/88/90 if you want to include the LDs)

Be interesting to see the equivalent for Western European countries in general.

You don't want to look at France. Too depressing.

 

[Anudder Oik]

David Fernández (CUP). Member of the catalan parliament and president of the investigation into the corruption of the former Catalan president, Jordi Pujol.
I voted CUP and they are now giving the career politicians a hard time and getting Young people interested in politics, albeit, against the system.

His hobby is collecting T-Shirts.

And he likes to take the piss.

 

[J Ed]

Pablo Iglesias (and Amy Goodman) at CUNY last night, haven't watched yet but may be of interest to Podemos/Spain watchers

 

[phildwyer]

Interesting piece about Venezuela's influence on Podemos:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...s-ghost-swing-spain-s-election-this-year.html

 

[JHE]

Interesting piece about Venezuela's influence on Podemos:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...s-ghost-swing-spain-s-election-this-year.html

I have little objection to that very unsympathetic article, since it is pretty accurate. Even the story about the apparently mild-mannered Luis Alegre's appalling treatment of his senior colleague at the Complutense is true, I believe. (Albiac earned the hatred of Alegre and others for two crimes: criticism of the Bolivarian Revolution and supporting Israel's right to exist.)

However, though the article mentions money and influence, it doesn't really explain what influence Chavismo has had on Podemos. I think it has had an enormous influence on how Podemos communicates (massively more successfully than the trad left) and how they would do things if they ever got power (focusing on remaking the constitution, as Chavez did).

IMO, the Bolivarian Revolution has turned into a disaster for the Venezuelan people (and it is good finally to hear Iglesias distancing himself from some of the repression in Venezuela) but I'm not at all sure Chavez's influence on Iglesias, Monedero, Alegre, Errejón and the rest is necessarily a bad thing. Chavez (and other Lat Am pols) taught them: ambition, the importance and possibility of communicating with people as they are, not as some lefty dogmatist imagines they are, to be effective builders of a popular movement based on the issues that really concern people, the possibility of such a movement winning elections and using the remaking of the constitution as a way of developing that movement to move to a more radical programme.

(Podemos is not going to form the next Spanish government alone. It does look very possible, however, that Podemos will be a major party after the next election and perhaps the least bad outcome would be a coalition including Podemos and PSOE.)

 

[phildwyer]

Podemos is not going to form the next Spanish government alone.

What makes you so sure?

 

[JHE]

What makes you so sure?

It's too early to be absolutely sure, but it looks like Podemos' percentage of the vote, if it does well, will be in the high 20s or even low 30s.

El Pais, which is pretty anti-Podemos, though less anti-Podemos than the article you linked, is pushing the line that Podemos has peaked. I'm not sure if El Pais is right about that. We'll see, but one thing is clear. Podemos has not only gained many supporters. It has also gained many opponents. There are lots of people who will be determined to vote against Podemos.

To get a majority of seats in Congress, Podemos would have to get about 45% of the vote, as PP did in 2000 and 2011. To stand much chance of forming a minority government, and having to make deals with other parties to get its legislation through, Podemos would have to get a %age of the vote in the high 30s at least. PSOE formed minority governments with 39% in 1993, 43% in 2004 and 44% in 2008. PP formed a minority government with 39% in 1996.

At the moment it looks like the left - understood broadly enough to include PSOE - will have a majority after the next election. If that happens, will the various parties, and in particular PSOE and Podemos, do a deal? Podemos has not excluded the possibility of forming a coalition with PSOE.

 

[phildwyer]

El Pais, which is pretty anti-Podemos, though less anti-Podemos than the article you linked, is pushing the line that Podemos has peaked. I'm not sure if El Pais is right about that.

I suppose no-one can be sure, but my guess is that they're wrong.

It depends on two factors: (1) the economy, (2) Syriza. If Syriza push the line that they need help from a Podemos government strongly enough, and if the economic crisis continues to worsen, I suspect that Podemos' support will continue to grow until the election, and that they'll win an absolute majority.

Mind you, I'm always wrong about elections.

 

[JHE]

It depends on two factors: (1) the economy, (2) Syriza.

Yes, I agree, especially re Greece. (There is one other factor: the credibility or otherwise of what the parties say they'll do about corruption.)

On the economy: The forecasts are that economic revovery will continue at a snail's pace. I think the latest figure for growth in 2014 was 1.4%. Unemployment is officially at almost 24%. An ILO report in January predicted that the unemployment rate in Spain would continue to be above 21% until at least 2019. With a recovery like that, people can legitimately see it as things getting better or things getting even worse depending on their point of view. If you didn't have a job and you get a temp job in 2015, that's a small improvement. On the other hand, if you continue without an income for another year, you are not just in the same rotten situation. You are even worse off, as savings are exhausted, debts pile up, hopes crumble...

 

[DotCommunist]

correct me if I'm wrong, but union corruption and PSOE corruption with it were a large part of breaking away some of the traditional PSOE voters into indignatos (sp) leading to Podemos support.

aren't those people going to take a fucking dim view if podemos did go into coalition with PSOE

 

[JHE]

There have been cases of corruption in PSOE for decades, and in the unions, notably in Andalucia where made-up training courses have been used as a ploy to steal large sums of money in the form of public subsidies for training. In the Caja Madrid scandal, people from all main parties (including the United Left) and both main unions and people from employers associations had their snouts in the trough.

Of course, that doesn't mean all politicians or all trade unionists are corrupt. Even Iglesias has begun to be less sweeping when talking about 'the caste' as he calls them. He doesn't say that all PSOE pols are part of 'the caste'. There are corrupt people who serve the rich and stuff their pockets - they are 'the caste' - and there are other people blah blah blah. He also mentions his ability in the European Parliament to get on with people in other parties, even PP.

Another poll was reported last night on the telly showing PP ahead (though massively down on their vote in 2011):

PP: 27,8%
Podemos: 23,6%
PSOE: 21,5%
C’s: 6,4%
UPyD: 4%
IU: 3,8%

If in November the results were anything like that, a lot of people would want the centre left to get its act together and get PP out of government.

(If you add together the left vote there, you get 49%. If you added the votes for other left parties in Catalonia, Galicia and the Basque Country and elsewhere, not shown on that little table, you would get >50%.)

 

[treelover]

here is what he was saying .............. know very well that the key to understanding the history of the past five hundred years is the emergence of specific social categories, called “classes.” And I am going to tell you an anecdote. When the 15-M movement first started, at the Puerta del Sol, some students from my department, the department of political science, very political students — they had read Marx, they had read Lenin — they participated for the first time in their lives with normal people.
They despaired: “They don’t understand anything! We tell them, you are a worker, even if you don’t know it!” People would look at them as if they were from another planet. And the students went home very depressed, saying, “They don’t understand anything.”
[I’d reply to them], “Can’t you see that the problem is you? That politics has nothing to do with being right, that politics is about succeeding?” One can have the best analysis, understand the keys to political developments since the sixteenth century, know that historical materialism is the key to understanding social processes. And what are you going to do — scream that to people? “You are workers and you don’t even know it!”
The enemy wants nothing more than to laugh at you. You can wear a T-shirt with the hammer and sickle. You can even carry a huge flag, and then go back home with your flag, all while the enemy laughs at you. Because the people, the workers, they prefer the enemy to you. They believe him. They understand him when he speaks. They don’t understand you. And maybe you are right! Maybe you can ask your children to write that on your tombstone: “He was always right — but no one ever knew.”
When you study successful transformational movements, you see that the key to success is to establish a certain identity between your analysis and what the majority feels. And that is very hard. It implies riding out contradictions.
Do you think I have any ideological problem with a forty-eight hour or a seventy-two-hour wildcat strike? Not in the least! The problem is that organizing a strike has nothing to do with how badly you or I want to do it. It has to do with union strength, and both you and I are insignificant there.
You and I may wish that earth were a paradise for all mankind. We can wish whatever we want, and put it on a t-shirt. But politics is about strength, it is not about wishes or what we say in assemblies. In this country there are only two unions with the ability to organize a general strike: the CCOO and the UGT. Do I like that? No. But it is what it is, and organizing a general strike is very difficult.
I’ve manned the picket lines in front of the bus depots in Madrid. The people there, at dawn, you know where they had to go? To work. They were no scabs. But they would be fired from their jobs, because at their jobs there were no unions to defend them. Because the workers who can defend themselves, like those in the shipyards, in the mines, they have strong unions. But the kids that work as telemarketers, or at pizza joints, or the girls working in retail, they cannot defend themselves.
They are going to be canned the day after the strike, and you are not going to be there, and I am not going to be there, and no union is going to be there guaranteeing them that they’re going to sit down with the boss and tell him: you’d better not fire this person for exercising their right to strike, because you are going to pay a price for it. That doesn’t happen, no matter how enthusiastic we may be.
Politics is not what you or I would like it to be. It is what it is, and it is terrible. Terrible. And that’s why we must talk about popular unity, and be humble. Sometimes you have to talk to people who don’t like your language, with whom the concepts you use to explain don’t resonate. What does that tell us? That we have been defeated for many years. Losing all the time implies just that: that people’s “common sense” is different [from what we think is right]. But that is not news. Revolutionaries have always known that. The key is to succeed in making “common sense” go in a direction of change.
César Rendueles, a very smart guy, says most people are against capitalism, and they don’t know it. Most people defend feminism and they haven’t read Judith Butler or Simone de Beauvoir. Whenever you see a father doing the dishes or playing with his daughter, or a grandfather teaching his grandkid to share his toys, there is more social transformation in that than in all the red flags you can bring to a demonstration. And if we fail to understand that those things can serve as unifiers, they will keep laughing at us.
That’s how the enemy wants us. He want us small, speaking a language no one understands, in a minority, hiding behind our traditional symbols. He is delighted with that, because he knows that as long as we are like that, we are not dangerous.
We can have a really radical discourse, say we want to do a general wildcat strike, talk about the people in arms, brandish symbols, carry portraits of the great revolutionaries to our demonstrations — they are delighted with that! They laugh at us. However, when you gather together hundreds, thousands of people, when you start convincing the majority, even those who voted for the enemy — that’s when they start to be afraid. And that is called “politics.” That is what we need to learn.
There was a fellow here who talked about the Soviets in 1905. There was that bald guy – a genius. He understood the concrete analysis of a concrete situation. In a time of war, in 1917, when the regime had crashed in Russia, he said a very simple thing to the Russians, whether they were soldiers, peasants, or workers. He said: “bread and peace.”
And when he said “bread and peace,” which is what everyone wanted — for the war to be over and to have enough to eat — many Russians who had no idea whether they were “left” or “right” but did know that they were hungry, they said: “The bald guy is right.” And the bald guy did very well. He didn’t talk to the Russians about “dialectical materialism,” he talked to them about “bread and peace.” And that is one of the main lessons of the twentieth century.
Trying to transform society by mimicking history, mimicking symbols, is ridiculous. There is no repeating other countries’ experiences, past historical events. The key is to analyze processes, history’s lessons. And to understand that at each point in time, “bread and peace,” if it is not connected to what people think and feel, is just repeating, as farce, a tragic victory from the past.

Long piece posted on Another Angry Voice F/B page, its from a speech by Pablo Inglesias, I reckon it has some sharp universal insights into left politics as well, it certainly makes our 'left leaders' Callinicos, etc look pathetic.

http://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/podemos-pablo-iglesias.html

Here is AAV's article on Podemos

 

[Favelado]

Monedero is dodgy as fuck. I want Podemos to get rid. Mad conspiracy theorist and dodgy business dealings are the last thing the alternative to the casta needs. There's no way that amount of cash shifting his way from Venezuela is okay.

 

[treelover]

 

[Coolfonz]

Long piece posted on Another Angry Voice F/B page, its from a speech by Pablo Inglesias, I reckon it has some sharp universal insights into left politics as well, it certainly makes our 'left leaders' Callinicos, etc look pathetic.

I have been waiting a long long time to hear a leftist speak like this, to be able to articulate it so well. People rattling on about "replacing capitalism", calling each other 'comrade', flattering their own egos by telling everyone else they are not really "socialist" or "communist". Self defining these -isms so that only they can be holders of the truth. Meanwhile power walks by on the other side of the street mocking us.

You know you can join Podemos. You don't have to be from Spain.

 

[Favelado]

The feeling I have here is that Podemos might be peaking a bit early. They have to hold on until November and it feels like they're just starting to have a few wobbles. There's no way they're going to poll less than 15% at the elections but they need to get some kind of second wind going before they begin to head the wrong way in the polls. I think Monedero filling his boots has damaged them and there'll be more trouble on its way - a lot of it made up by the press obviously.

 

[Coolfonz]

Sadly I think you are right. But I console myself with the long game. I'm very fond of Podemos, also slightly less so Syriza, because they signify the start of a new kind of left movement which is a) actually left wing and b) wants to win.

I've said many times and sorry if i've said it here before, if you cannot explain your politics and engage a boat load of day trippers on a ferry to Calais or a room full of Ukip voters or XYZ FC supporters then what the fuck are you doing? I said this once on a Left Unity debate thing, back then I lived abroad and one of the party hierarchy told me to go join a party over there. When did these people become part of the problem? I don't understand it.

 

[treelover]

How did the left here in the 30's, etc explain things?, I think there were lots of references to 'the common man'

 

[phildwyer]

I've said many times and sorry if i've said it here before, if you cannot explain your politics and engage a boat load of day trippers on a ferry to Calais or a room full of Ukip voters or XYZ FC supporters then what the fuck are you doing?

Who do you think is unable to do this?

 

[J Ed]

Monedero is dodgy as fuck. I want Podemos to get rid. Mad conspiracy theorist and dodgy business dealings are the last thing the alternative to the casta needs. There's no way that amount of cash shifting his way from Venezuela is okay.

As far as even the most serious allegations (and they are still allegations) of Venezuelan money going to Podemos go, and a lot of it AFAIK is coming from the Venezuelan opposition who are more than a little bit liberal with their definition of the truth, if it were true then so what? Would Venezuelan money finding its way to Podemos be any different to Spanish and US money flooding into the coffers of the actually violent Venezuelan opposition? Also, why is it any more dodgy for a party to receive money from a foreign democratically elected government than it is for political parties to receive money from foreign corporations which are basically run like dictatorships?

 

[Favelado]

As far as even the most serious allegations (and they are still allegations) of Venezuelan money going to Podemos go, and a lot of it AFAIK is coming from the Venezuelan opposition who are more than a little bit liberal with their definition of the truth, if it were true then so what? Would Venezuelan money finding its way to Podemos be any different to Spanish and US money flooding into the coffers of the actually violent Venezuelan opposition? Also, why is it any more dodgy for a party to receive money from a foreign democratically elected government than it is for political parties to receive money from foreign corporations which are basically run like dictatorships?

The money went to Monedero but before Podemos existed, so it can't have been a donation from the Venezuelan government to them. I think if you have set yourselves up at the anti-corruption party and within nine months there's someone in your ranks having to explain the 400,000 euros resting in his account, it's really damaging. Also, imagine such a donation did happen - again as the anti-corruption party you should probably make sure you're the ones telling people about it and not your enemies. Monedero has been railing against the rich while sitting there fucking loaded. It all sits really badly with me.

I have a problem with Monedero being a conspiracy loon too. Anyone who thinks George Bush set up the 9/11 attacks should probably not be number 3 in your party. I like Iglesias however and hope Podemos do really well. I can vote in the locals and it will either be them or IU for me.