Local Elections 2018
- Thread starter chilango
- Start date
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
These results shouldn't be read as a verdict on Corbyn.
For example. Here in Reading we had a massive swing to Labour at the GE that isn't repeated in the locals.
We have a Labour council imposing cuts and candidates avoiding mentioning Corbyn.
Voters can see the difference in the message the two votes send. You'd think the commentators would too.
For example. Here in Reading we had a massive swing to Labour at the GE that isn't repeated in the locals.
We have a Labour council imposing cuts and candidates avoiding mentioning Corbyn.
Voters can see the difference in the message the two votes send. You'd think the commentators would too.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Then make a decent argument rather than repeating the BBCs (politically motivated) line.Oh yeah. We're in P&P, aren't we? Sorry, I forgot. First post in an age and I've got 'a complete ignorance of political history'. Thanks for that.
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It's worth remembering that after the 2015 LEs
Since then and with the collapse if the UKIP vote things will be even more two party (certainly in England).
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Listening to the criticism above would mean a different leader wouldn't it? That's all he's saying 'get a new leader.'
I'm not sure what Labour can do to break the polling deadlock, but I don't think that's it.
Voley
🐭
That's a good point. I'm not sure, either. I think the sad fact is that there's enough general distrust of Corbyn knocking about to make me wonder if he is electable now. I felt differently after the GE and what Smith said chimed with that.
Nor do I, but I don't think either party is really connecting with what used to be called "working class Thatcherites" at the moment.
The label "Thatcherite" is very misleading in some ways because it includes people who would never dream of voting Tory and many people who are too young to have ever voted for Thatcher.
I don't know what the answer is tbh.
Plumdaff
joy in people
This is generally in line with polling and I don't think local elections are the indicator of GE results that the commetariat often claims they are. Even so, Labour did OK really, up 32 seats. Wandsworth is a disappointment, but the Tories have held it since the late 70s it was always going to be astonishing if Labour managed that (tbh I think it's a matter of time until they do, given the politics of London). As for places like Nuneaton, leave voting small towns in the English Midlands are precisely where I'd expect the UKIP vote to return to the Tories.
Demographically it's always going to be harder for Labour to get their vote out, even harder in local elections than GEs. 1997 overwhelming victories are rare in politics, even rarer at times of polarisation like now.
Demographically it's always going to be harder for Labour to get their vote out, even harder in local elections than GEs. 1997 overwhelming victories are rare in politics, even rarer at times of polarisation like now.
Trouble is, leave voting small towns in the English Midlands are exactly the places Labour needs to win to take the keys to number 10.....
FWIW, I think Labour would have done better (although maybe not that much - enough to push them over the line on a few headline councils though, which would have totally changed the narrative this morning) without the anti-semitism row, which is a largely self-inflicted wound which can be dealt with. If they can get on top of that I'd expect to see better numbers.
But there's no route to a landslide victory, only gradual incremental chipping away, and maybe a slender victory at the next GE. The electoral coalitions formed around the two main parties are too polarised for any huge movement between the two, and there's not enough left anywhere else to pick up.
A change of tack or leadership by either party could change this, but not in any predictable way - could a more centrist pro-EU leader increase vote share for Labour? I don't know - they seem pretty much maxed out in the young metropolitan vote, but a lot of the hardening of the older vote against Labour is a personal vote against Corbyn IMO, so there could be some inroads made here... but at the same time, the brexit supporting heartlands could disappear altogether.
But there's no route to a landslide victory, only gradual incremental chipping away, and maybe a slender victory at the next GE. The electoral coalitions formed around the two main parties are too polarised for any huge movement between the two, and there's not enough left anywhere else to pick up.
A change of tack or leadership by either party could change this, but not in any predictable way - could a more centrist pro-EU leader increase vote share for Labour? I don't know - they seem pretty much maxed out in the young metropolitan vote, but a lot of the hardening of the older vote against Labour is a personal vote against Corbyn IMO, so there could be some inroads made here... but at the same time, the brexit supporting heartlands could disappear altogether.
Plumdaff
joy in people
It's 81 on the list of Labour target seats for the next election. Most of the constituencies higher up the list are in Scotland/Wales/further North in more urban seats. Not to say that Momentum won't be knocking on doors at the next GE round there as they should. I just don't think local elections are the clear bellwether of GEs they are sometimes claimed to be.
Just to add that while I absolutely realise it is only one council and only one Westminster seat, Nuneaton has gone with the nation at every general election since 1997. In 1992 Labour gained it by a whisker whilst narrowly losing nationally.
So it is the sort of place Labour needs to take.
So it is the sort of place Labour needs to take.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
You've got this the wrong way round.
Labour cannot increase its vote share by tacking to the centre and being more pro-EU. That constituency is already in the bag (as you say) and, as the old maxim goes, 'hasn't got anywhere else to go'. Even if it did go elsewehere it won't be to the Tories.
That leaves the post industrial working class vote. To win enough of this group three things would need to be changed:
1. The positon on Brexit - Labour need to explicity set out a vision of Brexit that chimes with that constituency. It should be based around investment in working class communities. labour should be seen as the best party to deliver Brexit. The current fudge has run out of road;
2. The National Investment Bank - Labour's best idea by a mile - should be put up front and centre of everything. Labout need to explain what it is, how the investment can revive dead towns and areas, provide good jobs and apprenticeships, expand public sector infrastucture work and rebuild economies in working class areas moving beyond the rules of the excluding knowledge economy;
3. Bin Corbyn and elect someone who would connect in these areas. The best candidate by a mile is McDonnell.
I dunno, time on the doorstep has shown me that Corbyn is poison for a lot of the older working class voters, and the reasons he is would be the same for McDonnell. I don't disagree with points 1 and 2 though.
The pro-EU vote isn't in the bag though - a lot of them are staying at home.
The pro-EU vote isn't in the bag though - a lot of them are staying at home.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
McDonnell is a learner on the job. He can think on his feet and has some savvy. He is flexible. Some won't like him but they will respect him and recognise he's serious about his politics. None of these things apply to Corbyn.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
every election since 1997? a long way to go to catch up with dartford's record, which is 15 general elections in a row, thus going back to 1964
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
I know you weren't. But the Blairites will - as if a centrist pro Euro withv dead politics would change the dynamic and not worsen it
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
john mcdonnell is a poster boy for lifelong learning
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Labour won the local elections in this town whilst losing national elections in 1970, 1979, 1983, 1987 and 1992.
bimble
floofy
Can you explain in simple terms why this is ? is it because of age & free time?
Sure. All I'm saying is that if Labour don't well in these smaller English towns (Dartford is another example) then the road to a majority gets so much harder, especially since there is no guarantee Labour will make any gains at all in Scotland.
ricbake
working out how
Do we know if Andrew Travers got it right in Lambeth yesterday?
Lambeth Council to hire ex-Barnet Chief Exec who resigned over election fiasco
Lambeth Council to hire ex-Barnet Chief Exec who resigned over election fiasco
Plumdaff
joy in people
Age, free time, the local elections aren't everywhere so there isn't a massive national campaign of registration and getting the vote out, far less social media coverage, beyond a certain political bubble you'd be hard pushed to know in a lot of places that an election is even happening, issues on the ground don't seem as relevant to younger people (I'm not saying this is true, just the perception)........lots of reasons.
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