Local Elections 2018

[Slo-mo]

Labour won the local elections in this town whilst losing national elections in 1970, 1979, 1983, 1987 and 1992.

I don't get your point Butchers because Labour have just *lost* local elections in this town.

I'm certainly not claiming you can predict the next general election from a council election in Nuneaton. I am saying that there is a significant demographic Labour isn't connecting with.

 

[Pickman's model]

Sure. All I'm saying is that if Labour don't well in these smaller English towns (Dartford is another example) then the road to a majority gets so much harder, especially since there is no guarantee Labour will make any gains at all in Scotland.

to be honest whether it's labour or tories in charge it's a choice between vomit and shit on your kebab.

 

[Pickman's model]

I don't get your point Butchers because Labour have just *lost* local elections in this town.

I'm certainly not claiming you can predict the next general election from a council election in Nuneaton. I am saying that there is a significant demographic Labour isn't connecting with.

what was the turnout yesterday?

 

[Plumdaff]

I don't get your point Butchers because Labour have just *lost* local elections in this town.

I'm certainly not claiming you can predict the next general election from a council election in Nuneaton. I am saying that there is a significant demographic Labour isn't connecting with.

You claimed that Labour needed to win local elections here to be in with a chance at the GE. Butchers was showing there's no link between the two.

 

[butchersapron]

I don't get your point Butchers because Labour have just *lost* local elections in this town.

I'm certainly not claiming you can predict the next general election from a council election in Nuneaton. I am saying that there is a significant demographic Labour isn't connecting with.

You don't get my point about crude causation analysis and bellwether rubish? You see nothing in my post that might suggest a difference between local and national elections, something that might cause some problems for your post?

 

[Teaboy]

Well it looks like my local council (LB Richmond-upon-Thames) has changed hands. Its not entirely surprising given the tories problems here at the general election (Twickenham & Richmond Park). I'd say this is more likely a vote on May's government than any local issues although the tory council (led by Lord True, for real) were widely disliked in Twickenham due to several high profile projects which came up against fierce opposition.

What a joy to wake up to discover not only is my local MP a lib dem (Cable, no less) but now my local council is lib dem. What fun there will be in store.

 

[Slo-mo]

what was the turnout yesterday?

I've no idea. Why am I anymore likely to know that than you?

Sorry to be crabby, but I've got stuff to do, and I'm sure it's easy enough to google

 

[redsquirrel]

what was the turnout yesterday?

Down 0.1% to 34.4% in Leeds. Not seen any national figure but overall seems like it was a similar picture across the UK. Minor change on mid-30%

EDIT: Overall turnout was 35.7% in 2014 according to this

 

[Slo-mo]

You don't get my point about crude causation analysis and bellwether rubish? You see nothing in my post that might suggest a difference between local and national elections, something that might cause some problems for your post?

I don't give a shit about my post, or who won Nuneaton in 1979. I do however give a shit about who wins the next general election.And currently it's not looking great.

 

[Pickman's model]

I've no idea. Why am I anymore likely to know that than you?

Sorry to be crabby, but I've got stuff to do, and I'm sure it's easy enough to google

i'm sure it is. but please could you say what this significant demographic labour aren't connecting with is, when the turnout is (approximately) half what it would be in a general election? on what basis are you making the claim that labour is not connecting with a demographic which may well not have voted at all in the locals and might well vote in the nationals? in short you're comparing apples and asteroids: put up or shut up.

 

[Badgers]

 

[Lurdan]

to be honest whether it's labour or tories in charge it's a choice between vomit and shit on your kebab.

It's been quite a while since they tried a national unity government. Perhaps we could have both.

 

[bemused]

That was disappointing, I was hoping to wake to the sight of grumpy MPs bemoaning terrible loses. In the end, it looks like the national polling that has Labour and Tories neck and neck since the election seem about right.

 

[Pickman's model]

That was disappointing, I was hoping to wake to the sight of grumpy MPs bemoaning terrible loses. In the end, it looks like the national polling that has Labour and Tories neck and neck since the election seem about right.

i for one would like to see labour and the tories neck and neck

 

[butchersapron]

I don't give a shit about my post, or who won Nuneaton in 1979. I do however give a shit about who wins the next general election.And currently it's not looking great.

Star poster.

With a very busy day.

 

[Voley]

Twitter reckons he then tried to put a positive spin on it saying the Black Death led to the Renaissance.

 

[killer b]

Star poster.

With a very busy day.

yesterday this fucking clown was surprised to see projections of tory gains.

 

[ska invita]

Con gain in Barnet is pretty fucked. Possible anti-semitism fall out supposeldy, but Barnet has had a string of high profile council fuck ups so thats not good

I dont think this has much reflection on the next general election mainly because i think the conditions of a general election really favour Corbyn. He's a really good campaingner and comes alive in that situation x the fact that media special rules not to be biased and give more equal time to candidates means its the one window of time where he gets a look in and some possible positive coverage. I still expect Labour to better than at the last general election, but whether its enough for an outright win....who knows. Brexit Day still to come which might change everything

 

[Badgers]

Twitter reckons he then tried to put a positive spin on it saying the Black Death led to the Renaissance.

Class act

 

[Slo-mo]

yesterday this fucking clown was surprised to see projections of tory gains.

I was surprised to see projections of Tory gains, yes, and those projections were right.

Do you think that is a good thing?

 

[Pickman's model]

i'm sure it is. but please could you say what this significant demographic labour aren't connecting with is, when the turnout is (approximately) half what it would be in a general election? on what basis are you making the claim that labour is not connecting with a demographic which may well not have voted at all in the locals and might well vote in the nationals? in short you're comparing apples and asteroids: put up or shut up.

Slo-mo

 

[Pickman's model]

Slo-mo

 

[Pickman's model]

i see few staff applied to work at the count in haringey. they may reveal the results next week.

 

[Teaboy]

"Gearing up" is my new favourite euphemism for being down the pub.

 

[killer b]

I was surprised to see projections of Tory gains, yes, and those projections were right.

Do you think that is a good thing?

It was a predictable thing, given the polling. Maybe if all the amateur psephologists & pub-bore gamblers hadn't been predicting a tory wipeout, it wouldn't be possible to spin it this morning as some massive disaster for Labour.

 

[Slo-mo]

Slo-mo

I tell you what,Pickman's, why dont you give us your take on these election results? I'm sure people can't wait for your analysis.

 

[The39thStep]

From Mathew Goodwin :
Some of the more notable Tory advances:

Dudley -70% Leave
Nuneaton 65% Leave
Peterborough -62% Leave
Epping Forest -61% Leave
Basildon -67% Leave
Havant -62% Leave
Amber Valley -65% Leave
Bolton -60%ish Leave
Castle Point -73% Leave
Cannock Chase -69% Leave

 

[JimW]

From Mathew Goodwin :
Some of the more notable Tory advances:

Dudley -70% Leave
Nuneaton 65% Leave
Peterborough -62% Leave
Epping Forest -61% Leave
Basildon -67% Leave
Havant -62% Leave
Amber Valley -65% Leave
Bolton -60%ish Leave
Castle Point -73% Leave
Cannock Chase -69% Leave

Smoked out the Kippers then.

 

[not-bono-ever]

fucking lidems. I despise them more than the tories

 

[MickiQ]

I don't think the LE (any LE) results are too reliable a guide as to what will happen at a GE.
1. At about half the turnout of the GE only the most motivated voters turned out, most simply couldn't be bothered (especially I suspect young voters) for elections that they probably don't think mattered as much.
2. At GE's it's a lot less personal than LE's at most only the 2 leaders and maybe the odd individual like BoJo have a direct effect on the vote, with LE's the voter base is small enough for local individuals to have an effect.
I think the leader of Derby lost his seat to UKIP not because of anything to do with policies but because he is personally disliked, plenty of people hate Corbyn and plenty hate May but on a national scale these things balance out.

That said I think Labour are going to have their work seriously cut out for them to have any hope of winning a General Election.
I don't think they are going to make much if any inroad into the SNP vote in Scotland so they going to have to take enough seats off the Tories in England, It's do-able but it will need a big swing and all the polls seem to indicate there isn't one there.
We may just end up trading a minority Tory govt for a minority Labour one, but on the bright side there are more people for Labour to do a deal with than the Tories, the SNP and Plaid Cymru would deal for a price and maybe even the LibDems if they can get a little less toxic between now and then.

I also don't buy the general belief that the Tories are automatic beneficiaries of a collapse in the UKIP vote, they have a few real supporters of course but I think a lot of people treat them as a protest vote and thus there are probably a lot of people who would normally vote Labour in there as well as disgruntled Tory voters.
The UKIP are a spent force anyway now they were always a one man band, Farage may have been a cunt but he was a charismatic well-spoken cunt, kind of like an intelligent version of Trump now hes' gone, they're just coming over as sad little angry people with a chip on their shoulders.