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Hamas/Israel conflict: news and discussion

One thing we don’t know is what the pagers were used for.

If it was for some kind of callout or alert system (as 99% of the ones that still remain are everywhere else) then they’ve (Israel) probably made a graded response - as in the attacks are in area Y so the forces in area Y only go to alert bases - more difficult.
Good point - but wouldn't it make sense to wait until the tanks were rolling before doing that? Unless I missed it, there's been nothing about Israel massing troops in the north for an imminent attack.
 
It does if the war starts in the next few days - not only have you taken out a bunch of people senior enough to get free comms you've not killed them, which means they're temporarily useless to the war effort and taking up resources.
You may also have helped unite the whole of Lebanon (the whole of Lebanon!) against you.

The way I remember the 2006, Hezbollah did all the heavy lifting on their side. How about now?
 
A mass remote control activation of lithium batteries, in the very pockets of thousands of people, triggered remotely by an attacking agent.

It's not running out of ideas. It's a brand new idea. And it is fucking terrifying.
Still no substitute for boots on the ground. And how does this get the IDF closer to that point?
 
You may also have helped unite the whole of Lebanon (the whole of Lebanon!) against you.

The way I remember the 2006, Hezbollah did all the heavy lifting on their side. How about now?

They've literally blown the balls off thousands of their opponents. I'm not saying it's right. Just that it's very inventive. Apparently most of the thousands of injuries in hospitals in Beirut are to the groin area. I don't think they were trying to kill them.
 
No it isn't. Because does this lower or raise the probability of an escalation? It makes it far more likely that shit will hit the fan, even if it (imo) makes it less likely that things will go batshit in the next few days

I'm beginning to think less likely.

Firstly because the damage they've caused to Hezbollah - the physical damage to their people, but also the organisational damage caused by Israel's very obvious penetration of Hezbollah's command, control & communication systems, their supply chains.

Israel simply needs a war with Hezbollah like it needs a hole in the head. They could go to war with Hezbollah in a similar way to how they've gone to war with Hamas, but then they'd have very little left in the tank to cope with potentially more serious threats. I think if they can avoid it, they will.

Hezbollah has been seriously compromised - and two months ago Israel killed the Hamas leader in Tehran. Mucho blood-curdling promises of retaliation were issued by Iran, but they've done very little. The supposition is that they've simply got nothing in the tank left to attack Israel with, or that they've decided that Israel's retaliation will be sufficiently destructive that it's not worth playing. The latter probably, and I think they were very disappointed by the complete failure of the missile attacks on Israel by Iran and it's proxies in April.

I think that both Hezbollah and Iran have been, to an extent, put in their box by the Israelis. I don't doubt they'll be some retaliatory rocket attacks, but I don't see anything apocalyptic if the Israelis decide that Hezbollah is an enemy they can keep at arms length until Gaza is done (in whatever form 'done' means..).

We'll see.
 
I'm beginning to think less likely.

Firstly because the damage they've caused to Hezbollah - the physical damage to their people, but also the organisational damage caused by Israel's very obvious penetration of Hezbollah's command, control & communication systems, their supply chains.
Hang on - have they penetrated Hezbollah's supply chains, systems etc., plural? Can we conclude that from what is, basically, a stunt? It's a spectacular and spectacularly destructive stunt, but it's a stunt nonetheless.
 
What would there defence be? Just asking.

This is an action taking place in another state which Israel is not at war with.

It's extra judicial killing on another states land.

I do not think this could be regarded as legitimate self defence.

Israel state is well armed to defend itself without actions like this,

As Israel state believes its a democracy and part of the west etc I don't see how they can justify this action. If they did it. So far they aren't saying it was them.

It looks like a lot of bystanders are casualties as well.

I'd imagine they would argue (if they ever admitted that it was them) that this was a limited and precisely targetted attack against members of an armed group with whom they have been in intermittent conflict for the past few decades, and they were carried out in order to prevent further violence upon their (Israeli) citizens.

Whether it would be successful is another question, but I think international law has generally been more tolerant of this sort of thing than it has been of the mass killings of civilians, civilian structures, genocidal language, starvations etc etc.
 
I'm beginning to think less likely.

Firstly because the damage they've caused to Hezbollah - the physical damage to their people, but also the organisational damage caused by Israel's very obvious penetration of Hezbollah's command, control & communication systems, their supply chains.

Israel simply needs a war with Hezbollah like it needs a hole in the head. They could go to war with Hezbollah in a similar way to how they've gone to war with Hamas, but then they'd have very little left in the tank to cope with potentially more serious threats. I think if they can avoid it, they will.

Hezbollah has been seriously compromised - and two months ago Israel killed the Hamas leader in Tehran. Mucho blood-curdling promises of retaliation were issued by Iran, but they've done very little. The supposition is that they've simply got nothing in the tank left to attack Israel with, or that they've decided that Israel's retaliation will be sufficiently destructive that it's not worth playing. The latter probably, and I think they were very disappointed by the complete failure of the missile attacks on Israel by Iran and it's proxies in April.

I think that both Hezbollah and Iran have been, to an extent, put in their box by the Israelis. I don't doubt they'll be some retaliatory rocket attacks, but I don't see anything apocalyptic if the Israelis decide that Hezbollah is an enemy they can keep at arms length until Gaza is done (in whatever form 'done' means..).

We'll see.

I really am not sure about this.

Unless there is an even worse surprise hiding in the background for Hezbollah, doing this as a warning to Hezbollah doesn't make as much sense as doing it as a prelude to something does; this is going to cause a degree of chaos which will go away probably quite quickly if it isnt exploited.

As for Iran (and a lesser extent Hezbollah), I think they have recognized that the direction of travel that most of the world is going in now on this issue - and this applies even if things calm down elsewhere - is towards at least a Palestinian state. Netanyahu probably knows this as well, hence his increasingly obvious attempts to expand the war.
 
Hang on - have they penetrated Hezbollah's supply chains, systems etc., plural? Can we conclude that from what is, basically, a stunt? It's a spectacular and spectacularly destructive stunt, but it's a stunt nonetheless.
Beeb reckoned couldn't be done purely by overloading the battery..pagers had a charge in them...
 
I'd imagine they would argue (if they ever admitted that it was them)
The ogre does what ogres can,
Deeds quite impossible for man.
But one thing is beyond his reach.
The ogre cannot master speech.

Upon a subjugated plain,
Among the merciless and slain,
The ogre stalks with hands on hips,
While drivel gushes from his lips.
 
If Hezbollah or Hamas had done this to Israeli troops' pagers it would have been called 'terrorism'. What do we call it when Israel is the perpetrator?

Reminds me read this by Noura Erakat

Israel has been pretty good at changing law. Erakat argues there is a body of law related to conflict and war. A lot built up over years. One aspect is what she calls customary law. Its up to States as a whole to agree peace meal changes to what is legally acceptable.

There is no one sovereign state to uphold international law. Customary law is that which states agree loosely on.

An example related to Gaza and this extraordinary attack on Lebanon is extra judicial killings.

Take Gaza - Israel has justified attacks some attacks as being about targeting Hamas leaders. With high death toll of civilians unfortunate.

This is not self defence. These are targeted assassination attempts.

Erakat points out that extra judicial killings like this were frowned upon. Then Israel pushed the envelope of what was accepted as customary law and its now accepted.
For example, it carries out extrajudicial assassinations of Palestinians in the West Bank that it insists are “targeted killings.” This assertion was initially rejected by all states, until the United States adopted the policy itself in its global war on terror, thereby planting a seed for this new law that allows the extrajudicial assassination of civilian or military targets off the battlefield. It’s been 20 years now, and nobody has been held to account for any extrajudicial assassinations. Israel is degrading the rules of engagement for warfare around the world. It has set in motion a trend in which other states are adopting and normalizing the same policy, making everyone less safe.

Id say that if pushed Israel state will argue by extension what its done in Lebanon counts as targeted killings within what is now accepted practise as customary law.

So to answer your question what do we call it when Israel is the perpetrator? An answer is that they are yet again expanding what is acceptable rules of engagement when a state takes armed action.

That is unless the international community as a whole condemns Israel ( alleged) action in Lebanon.


This article gives good short summary of Noura Erakat ideas in her book
 
Reminds me read this by Noura Erakat

Israel has been pretty good at changing law. Erakat argues there is a body of law related to conflict and war. A lot built up over years. One aspect is what she calls customary law. Its up to States as a whole to agree peace meal changes to what is legally acceptable.

There is no one sovereign state to uphold international law. Customary law is that which states agree loosely on.

An example related to Gaza and this extraordinary attack on Lebanon is extra judicial killings.

Take Gaza - Israel has justified attacks some attacks as being about targeting Hamas leaders. With high death toll of civilians unfortunate.

This is not self defence. These are targeted assassination attempts.

Erakat points out that extra judicial killings like this were frowned upon. Then Israel pushed the envelope of what was accepted as customary law and its now accepted.


Id say that if pushed Israel state will argue by extension what its done in Lebanon counts as targeted killings within what is now accepted practise as customary law.

So to answer your question what do we call it when Israel is the perpetrator? An answer is that they are yet again expanding what is acceptable rules of engagement when a state takes armed action.

That is unless the international community as a whole condemns Israel ( alleged) action in Lebanon.


This article gives good short summary of Noura Erakat ideas in her book
That ability to push the envelope only lasts so long as you have a superpower patron who will indulge you like a pet.

How much longer is that going to last?
 
True for Israel, certainly. I think the threat is that it may not be true for Netanyahu and his cronies, who have just declared victory against a key Hamas target but will be well aware that the moment the state of war ends they're going to be absolutely fucked.
Everyone says this, but is it true? All the Israeli liberals do is march from A to B and then wank themselves off like useless middle-class liberals everywhere. And these people are going to take down BN once the smoke clears? I don't think so.
 
The denunciations of Netanyahu and co aren't confined to the liberals, much of the Israeli right saw October 7 as an unforgiveable lapse on their watch. Plus the more hardheaded types in the political sphere will be cognisant that the best way to reset Israel's world standing after all this will be to get rid of the politicians most associated with it. And don't forget, Netanyahu specifically is still on trial for corruption and due to testify in December - if he's still a war leader at the time he'll have a much better chance of skipping prison.
 
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The denunciations of Netanyahu and co aren't confined to the liberals, much of the Israeli right saw October 7 as an unforgiveable lapse on their watch. Plus the more hardheaded types in the political sphere will be well aware that the best way to reset Israel's world standing after all this will be to get rid of the politicians most associated with it. And don't forget, Netanyahu specifically is still on trial for corruption and due to testify in December - if he's still a war leader at the time he'll have a much better chance of skipping prison.
The Israeli right are just as on-side for the war and the castration of the judiciary as BN is.

E2A: Even if they did take him down from the right, all that means is Netanyahuism without Netanyahu.
 
Some of them, sure, and as long as the war lasts they'll be loyal to the chief. But that doesn't hold once the war is done.

E2A: Even if they did take him down from the right, all that means is Netanyahuism without Netanyahu.

This I absolutely agree with. But Netanyahu's own motivation is the safety and security of Netanyahu, and in that cause, as we've seen repeatedly, he'll blow the whole world up.
 
If Hezbollah or Hamas had done this to Israeli troops' pagers it would have been called 'terrorism'. What do we call it when Israel is the perpetrator?
The definition of terrorism is action by a non-state actor. States are allowed to be violent. They have a licence to kill. However, there is such a thing as international humanitarian law, and states can commit war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide. This is a war crime, I would say.
 
I'd imagine they would argue (if they ever admitted that it was them) that this was a limited and precisely targetted attack against members of an armed group with whom they have been in intermittent conflict for the past few decades, and they were carried out in order to prevent further violence upon their (Israeli) citizens.

Whether it would be successful is another question, but I think international law has generally been more tolerant of this sort of thing than it has been of the mass killings of civilians, civilian structures, genocidal language, starvations etc etc.

Did this post on international law and armed conflict

Post in thread 'Hamas/Israel conflict: news and discussion' Hamas/Israel conflict: news and discussion

Agree international law on armed conflict has been more tolerant. Though this is not an accident.

Its partly due to it being a form of law agreed amongst states.

Noura Erakat writes in her book about she calls the legal work that Israel put in to push the envelope of what is accepted.

In the article and in more detail in her book she shows that on where Israel goes other countries follow.

And Israel puts a lot of effort into the legal side of its wars. Might sound surprising but it does.

Kevbad the Bad raises good point in there post.

If Hezbollah or Hamas had fixed the pagers of IDF/ government people in Israel. Whether on duty or not. And blown up their pagers this attack would have been condemned within minutes by western governments as terrorism. Pure and simple
 
The definition of terrorism is action by a non-state actor. States are allowed to be violent. They have a licence to kill. However, there is such a thing as international humanitarian law, and states can commit war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide. This is a war crime, I would say.
Hardly the first that they have committed and not the most egregious. This attack targeted Hezbollah fighters and organisers fairly directly which is different from indiscriminate bombing a hospital or refugee camp. Hezbollah are no strangers against crimes against humanity either as was seen in the murder of those Druze kids playing football in the occupied Golan Heights.

From a British perspective don't forget the SAS murders of innocent Afghan men when they were trying to boost their kill rate.
 
Hardly the first that they have committed and not the most egregious. This attack targeted Hezbollah fighters and organisers fairly directly which is different from indiscriminate bombing a hospital or refugee camp. Hezbollah are no strangers against crimes against humanity either as was seen in the murder of those Druze kids playing football in the occupied Golan Heights.

From a British perspective don't forget the SAS murders of innocent Afghan men when they were trying to boost their kill rate.
Or the SAS murdering Irish people in Gibraltar
 
Hezbollah
Or the SAS murdering Irish people in Gibraltar
who were planning to bomb tourists and a military band a glorious legitimate Target whose sluaghter would have brought a socialist Ireland one step closer. the same "people" who had no problem shooting babies or blowing up children. 30 years of murder and mayhem and they achieved fuck all:D
 
Hezbollah

who were planning to bomb tourists and a military band a glorious legitimate Target whose sluaghter would have brought a socialist Ireland one step closer. the same "people" who had no problem shooting babies or blowing up children. 30 years of murder and mayhem and they achieved fuck all:D

Raising the SAS killings of 3 known IRA members based on intelligence of their intentions, in any discussion about indiscriminate killings, is disgusting.
 
The interesting thing will be finding out who were the people who got the pagers - Hezbollah is a large organisation, it has perhaps 80k members, split between full-timers and part-timers, with the full-timers at perhaps 10% of it's strength.

It could be it's senior people - which would tie with why the Iranian ambassador (or someone he was standing next to) had one - it could be any subset of its members from a particular unit, or a trade (rocket engineers, security officers, force protection, planners, QM's etc.. spread throughout the wider organisation) or it could be completely random in the same way that they dish out bullets or combat jackets.
 
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