Greek Parliamentary Election

[love detective]

Yep, you have raised a bit of a fundamental poser there DownwardDog. Though if there still isn't a functioning government by June I wonder if the EU will risk possible total social meltdown by cancelling the June tranche of the bailout cash ? Though isn't it the case that the overwhelming majority of the "bailout" cash never goes near Greece - but goes straight to the Eurozone banks to help pay interest on Greece's debt ? So what is the actual scale of the non-payment of the public sector if the bailout is cancelled ?

This is the key point - the majority of the 'bail out' money that Greece 'receives' goes straight back out, in interest & capital repayments, to foreign banks or the IMF/ECB/EU itself (some of it never even goes to Greece in the first place and is held in collateral accounts outside of Greece for the benefit of bondholders). Even out of the proportion that is kept in Greece, more than half of it goes to Greek Banks. The analysis below is a good few months out of date and applies to the 2011 situation but this shows that only 19% of the bailout money received actually goes towards financing the public sector

I'd guess that the equivalent of that 19% now is probably even lower as the the estimated total greek deficit for 2012, while being something like 6% including interest payments, is something like 1% or less excluding interest payments, so they've almost got a balanced budget of income & expenditure excluding interest

If the bailout money is withheld and Greek defaults (again, but this time disorderly), Greece will leave the euro anyway and in which case the equivalent of the 19% that's currently funded by bailout cash would easily be funded in freshly printed devalued Drachma without actually causing much inflation anyway - and they'd be raking it in by revolutionary tourists wielding sterling and getting cheap holidays

what's not to like, it's win for win for everyone - and the bailout funds that were originally 'titled' Greece will need to be renamed to what they really are, i.e. a backdoor bailout for the large French & German (and Greek) banks who took the risk (and earned higher profits of the back of that risk) in lending in the first place

 

[London_Calling]

^ And this is after restructuring...

 

[contadino]

the bailout funds that were originally 'titled' Greece will need to be renamed to what they really are, i.e. a backdoor bailout for the large French & German (and Greek) banks who took the risk (and earned higher profits of the back of that risk) in lending in the first place

Isn't this pretty much what happened in Indonesia when the IMF went in 'to help'? Isn't the IMF just a mechanism to underwrite risk?

 

[where to]

Sryiza have ended their attempts to form a coalition.

Over to PASOK now.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18008179

 

[Fedayn]

Sryiza have ended their attempts to form a coalition.

Over to PASOK now.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18008179

What is interesting is that a good number of commentators now seem to be thinking that despite their inability to form a government the momentum is with SYRIZA and if new elections are calle-more when than if they seem to be saying-then SYRIZA could top the poll.

 

[redsquirrel]

Anybody heard from Dmitris? Bit surprised that he hasn't posted on this thread. I hope he's ok.

 

[love detective]

Graph below shows the projected primary account balance (income v expenditure not including debt servicing) for Greece for the next 4 years

So this idea being put around by the EU/IMF that Greece wouldn't be able to pay public sector salaries etc. if they didn't get a bailout is completely misleading - the only thing Greece wouldn't be able to pay if they didn't get the bailout is the interest & debt back to those who took the risk in lending it in the first place

Another thing that never seems to get talked about much in relation to why Greece has such a high level of debt to GDP, is its high level of military spending.

Over the last 20 years or so (up until around 2009) it spent an average of 4% of GDP each year on military spending - which made it, just prior to the crisis breaking in 2006, the third largest arms importer in the world. This expenditure is more than double the EU average of around 1.7% and pretty much unjustifiable from any kind of geo-political perspective. If Greece had just spent the EU average instead of what it did spend, it's debt/gdp ratio would have been cut from it's current 150%ish to around 98% which dwarves the reduction achieved by all these supposed bailout plans, and would have put both its debt/gdp ration and budget deficit figures in line with an average and unremarkable country struggling in the downturn

To tie this back to the original point about Greece 'bailout' effectively being a backdoor bailout for German & French banks, the biggest suppliers to Greece of military equipment over that period was.....France & Germany

Even in 2010, when social spending was cut by 1.8bn euros, Greece spent 1bn on new French & German supplied military equipment. And today, measured in GDP terms, Greece still spends the highest amount on military kit out of all other European countries. So the budget figures above would be even more healthier looking, and leave even more scope for increased social spending, if military expenditure was brought down to levels appropriate to the country's geo-political situation

 

[youngian]

Note that public debt in Ireland and Spain is lower than the UK. The difference is that they don't have central banks that can print money to pay bonds. This is partly a crisis of the ECB's strict treaty bound monterarist criterea that cannot cope with crisis. I understand the Bundesbank can though and recapitalise the ECB to issue more bonds, although the Germans still have Weimar nightmares about money in wheelbarrows. In reality inflation is the least of Club Med's problems and I doubt Porsche or Mercedes are too bothered about the Euro falling.

To be fair on Merkel she has until last year a fundamental problem with increasing lending-Berlusconi. He had no plan for economic reform and would just shake Europe down for every last penny and still come back for more. Monti is very different kind of character and this auterity plan has produced very little beyond promising headmistress Merkel they will try harder in future.

 

[youngian]

According the the Groan these are Alexis Tsipras's conditions he is demanding, in order to form a government with either of the two main parties.

1) The immediate cancellation of all impending measures that will impoverish Greeks further, such as cuts to pensions and salaries.
2) The immediate cancellation of all impending measures that undermine fundamental workers' rights, such as the abolition of collective labor agreements.
3) The immediate abolition of a law granting MPs immunity from prosecution, reform of the electoral law and a general overhaul of the political system. According to Keep Talking Greece, that would include abolishing the 50-seat bonus for the party which wins the most seats.
4) An investigation into Greek banks, and the immediate publication of the audit performed on the Greek banking sector by BlackRock.
5) The setting up of an international auditing committee to investigate the causes of Greece's public deficit, with a moratorium on all debt servicing until the findings of the audit are published.

Would it really be such a tactical mistake for the anti-austerity/anti-capitalist left to try and form a government in this situation? Definitely doomed to failure? Better on the outside pissing in, hanging out with the KKE whilst they sit back and wait for Soviets to appear/the working class to "suffer sufficiently" that they are motivated.
I'm really not sure what I think tbh, but this seems a rather problematic way of seeing things, then again a "left" coalition government might end in disaster, tactical mistakes and technocrat/military rule...

And here's his negotiating tactics with Merkel-

 

[ayatollah]

Gobsmacking stuff about Greece's military expenditure from Love Detective. I understand that Germany wouldn't ALLOW Greece to cut current big military equipment orders from German arms firms during the "austerity" crisis, in which the Greeks are being forced to cut welfare, pensions, etc, etc ! Suggests that the Greek military are STILL pretty well connected . And of course it also illustrates the crazy ongoing military standoff between fellow NATO members Greece and Turkey - Now there's another big historical can of worms that could go "hot" during this deepening Eurozone crisis ! "Never mind Austerity.. let's reconquer Byzantium !"

 

[Random]

I think you are seriously "behind the curve" on the Greek situation, Random". Far be it from me to get you to read the Left press, but for instance this from Socialist Worker's "Greece roundup" :

The strike at the Eleftherotypia newspaper continues.
Strikers are set to produce the third issue of their workers’ controlled newspaper soon.
And occupiers at the Alter TV station have stopped bosses from cutting off their electricity.
Power workers sent a delegation to the workplace—and within five minutes convinced those sent to cut off the power to stop.

Thanks, that's the kind of info I couldn't find. Where do I look on Al Jazeera? A look at their Greece coverage shows nothing on occupations.

Anyone?

 

[trabant]

Thanks, that's the kind of info I couldn't find. Where do I look on Al Jazeera? A look at their Greece coverage shows nothing on occupations.

Anyone?

A documentary (in Greek) on the occupation of the Halyvourgia Ellados steel factory in Aspropyrgos.
http://takethesquare.net/2012/02/23/eleftherotypias-workers-are-back-with-their-own-newspaper/

That link also has some info on Eleftherotypia newspaper. I've heard it mentioned by some workers from the paper that there are talks and plans of trying to set up a worker run daily. Still in the works though. Website of the workers of Eleftherotypia - http://erganet.wordpress.com/

Greek hospital in Kilkis under occupation by health staff
http://news.infoshop.org/article.php?story=20120227103334638

Will stick up more links when I have some time

 

[Random]

Just found this, which has some good paras on occupations

http://www.anarkismo.net/article/22527

 

[ayatollah]

If you put "Greece workers resistance" into the Google search there are a large range of sites about the many factory occupations and other grass roots resistance activities going on - including past articles in Socialist Worker:-

 

[youngian]

I understand that Germany wouldn't ALLOW Greece to cut current big military equipment orders from German arms firms during the "austerity" crisis, in which the Greeks are being forced to cut welfare, pensions, etc, etc ! Suggests that the Greek military are STILL pretty well connected ."

And given Greece's history I guess this not a good time to upset colonels.

 

[ymu]

Pretty sure it had more to do with not upsetting Franco-German capitalists.

 

[where to]

The first opinion polling data since Sunday's election has just been released, and it shows that support for the anti-bailout party Syriza has gained ground against the other parties.
Syriza has overtaken New Democracy, indicating that it could win the most seats if a second Greek election were run in June.
Here, via Greek journalist Efthimia Efthimiou, is the projected vote that the main candidates would receive:
Syriza: 27.7% (up from 16.78% in last Sunday's election)
New Democracy: 20.3% (up from 18.8%)
Pasok: 12.6% (down from 13.1%
Independent Greeks: 10.2% (down from 10.6%)
KKE: 7% (down from 8.48%)
Golden Dawn: 5.7% (down from 6.97%)
Democratic Left: 4.9% (down from 6.1%)
Other polling had Syriza with a smaller percentage, but still leading the other parties.

 

[where to]

oh dear. sounds like Democratic Left may be about to cave in

Important developments this evening in Greece – the Democratic Left Party has proposed the creation of an all-party unity government.
Party leader Fotis Kouvelis has called on other parties to suport his proposal of an 'ecumenical' government. That would allow the deadlock over the Greek bailout to be broken, and keep Greece in the euro.
Here's the statement Kouvelis made on live TV (via Keep Greece Talking):

I offered Venizelos to form an ecumenical government with trustworthy political personalities, a government to last until the EU elections of 2014 and thus under two conditions: That the country remains in the EU and the euro zone and that it will work towards a gradual disengagement from the Memorandum of Understanding.​

As reported at 4.17pm, the Democratic Left has dropped its previous hard line against Greek austerity. Kouvelis's plan appears to be that the government would be designed to rule until 2014.
Whisper it quietly, but Greece might just get itself a workable government after all.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/may/10/eurozone-crisis-greece-elections

 

[where to]

another poll:

Poll (Marc-Alpha tv): Syriza 23.8%, ND 17.4%, Pasok 10.8%, IndGreeks 8.7%, KKE 6%, GoldDawn 4.9%, DemLeft 4.2%

 

[where to]

How the first poll translates into seats:

Syriza: 128* (up from 52 in last Sunday's election)
New Democracy: 57 (down from 108)
Pasok: 36 (down from 41)
Independent Greeks: 29 (down from 33)
KKE: 20 (down from 26)
Golden Dawn: 16 (down from 21)
Democratic Left: 14 (down from 19)

*inc 50 seat bonus

 

[frogwoman]

Do you reckon they'll agree to it?

 

[London_Calling]

The word is the population is increasingly galvanised by Syriza and the message coming from the leadership ('Yes we can', etc). In a second election Syriza could even become the largest party and collect the extra 50 seats. Heady days.

Innit

Obv. point: as momentum grows, Syriza needs fewer and fewer coalition partners.

Late night in Berlin....

 

[Delroy Booth]

another poll:

Poll (Marc-Alpha tv): Syriza 23.8%, ND 17.4%, Pasok 10.8%, IndGreeks 8.7%, KKE 6%, GoldDawn 4.9%, DemLeft 4.2%

Faisal Islam and Paul Mason just tweeted this poll

Syriza 27%, ND 20%, Pasok 10%, IndGreeks 10%, Dem left5% (but no mention of commmunists and golden dawn)

 

[London_Calling]

^ see post #167, and here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/may/10/eurozone-crisis-greece-elections

 

[Delroy Booth]

sorry thought it was a fresh poll, what with it just being tweeted, just seen it's old news.

 

[London_Calling]

Good news never gets old

 

[Fedayn]

How the first poll translates into seats:

Syriza: 128* (up from 52 in last Sunday's election)
New Democracy: 57 (down from 108)
Pasok: 36 (down from 41)
Independent Greeks: 29 (down from 33)
KKE: 20 (down from 26)
Golden Dawn: 16 (down from 21)
Democratic Left: 14 (down from 19)

*inc 50 seat bonus

Those figures would nominally allow a majority SYRIZA/KKE/DEMLEFT government which would have been anti-austerity. However the news re DL perhaps rolling over might make that more difficult.

 

[ayatollah]

This is in many ways gobsmackingly wonderful news for socialists (and proof positive to those ex-socialists on here that have written off socialism as a philosophy with any relevance to ordinary working people, that when the capitalist system goes into crisis, socialism becomes VERY relevant). However it's also VERY scary stuff. A Syriza government would be faced with the most horrendous economic and political/social problems - and tearing up the austerity deal and cancelling all Greece's debts would provoke all sorts of open and covert acts of "retaliation " from world capitalism (look at Cuba, Chile, Nicaragua in similar circumstances).

Assuming the very non-Leninist loose Syriza coalition has the political discipline and coherence to take the radical hard road rather than bottle it in compromises (as the DL appear to have done already ), it will be incredibly important that the working classes in Spain, Portugal and Italy are inspired to copy Greece ASAP. I suspect most of us on the Left will be heavily engaged in "Greek Solidarity" work for the next year or so if this all transpires.

 

[London_Calling]

But beyond Greece, there are an awful lot of politicians and electors in many European countries taking notes. Whatever happens in Greece, it won't end in Greece.

Berlin must be petrified.

 

[where to]

polls like this just make another election less likely though.