Greek Parliamentary Election

[phildwyer]

What does "batten down the hatches" mean? Austerity with a human face?

No, it means "get ready for hard times." Inform the public that things are going to be very tough indeed for a few months or a year, but that the end result will be worth it. Basically shift to a wartime economy.

That would be a very hard sell, obviously, but by no means impossible. Many nations have successfully come through much worse.

 

[phildwyer]

Default, ejection from the eurozone and feverish printing of new drachma (the Argentinean solution) would be possible alternative to rattling the mendicants' bowl in the direction of Frankfurt. We'd be through the looking glass at that point and I don't think anybody would guarantee that whatever happened from then would be better or preferable to decades of grinding austerity fuelled depression.

Nobody could ever guarantee such a thing, but I'd certainly bet on it.

 

[ayatollah]

What does "batten down the hatches" mean? Austerity with a human face?

Default, ejection from the eurozone and feverish printing of new drachma (the Argentinean solution) would be possible alternative to rattling the mendicants' bowl in the direction of Frankfurt. We'd be through the looking glass at that point and I don't think anybody would guarantee that whatever happened from then would be better or preferable to decades of grinding austerity fuelled depression.

Whilst it can be demonstrated that a population gripped by revolutionery fervour is willing, for a while, to put up with hardship even beyond that imposed by capitalism , eg, Nicaragua, Cuba. What is also true, is that eventually masses of people get tired of this and before long a police state is needed (OK maybe a "worker's police state" for at least a while) to keep society functioning while the wider revolution is awaited........................

Which is why the timing of Greece's entry on a radical unilateral "rejectionist" path is so vital - it COULD be the spark that ignites Europe against capitalism - or a damp squib which ends up with Greece under a LONG military dictatorship .. or reinventing Envar Hoxha's Albania, The stakes are that high.

 

[phildwyer]

Whilst it can be demonstrated that a population gripped by revolutionery fervour is willing, for a while, to put up with hardship even beyond that imposed by capitalism , eg, Nicaragua, Cuba. What is also true, is that eventually masses of people get tired of this and before long a police state is needed (OK maybe a "worker's police state" for at least a while) to keep society functioning while the wider revolution is awaited.........................

I wouldn't call Communist Cuba or Sandinista Nicaragua "police states" of any description. By allowing their bourgeoisie to emigrate they avoided the necessity for serious repression.

Furthermore, the Cubans in particular seem to have taken great inspiration from their status as international pariahs. And surely no-one would argue that Cuban living standards are lower than they would have been under capitalism/imperialism--they'd have ended up like the Dominican Republic. Greece could do a lot worse than to follow Cuba's example.

 

[Random]

I still think the EU isn't going away soon - an authoritarian EU that basically administrates Greece like a colony is possible. Isn't much/most EU capital locked into the EU project now? Can French, German, Italian and Spanish capital survive outside the EU? The politicians are also very ideologically comitted.

The pro-EU liberals in Germany are probably saying now that they have to support a strong EU, in order to squash rising nazis, it's their historical duty, etc. Anyone read German newspapers?

 

[London_Calling]

Just a reminder of what all this is really about - what the 25% unemployment in Spain, the 22% in Greece, the 50% youth unemployment, the pillaging of pensions, the misery and despair for tens of millions of working class Europeans - and this is what having the southern European countries in the euro means to the German economy:

Germany world's biggest exporter

China is on track to overtake Germany as the world's biggest exporter after the latest figures showed a sharp rebound in exports last month.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...enges-Germany-as-worlds-biggest-exporter.html

BERLIN (AP) — Germany's unemployment rate fell to 7 percent last month with less than 3 million registered as jobless — the best April figure in 20 years, official figures showed Thursday.

http://news.yahoo.com/german-unemployment-down-7-percent-113755710--finance.html

A decade of historic boom for the Germany economy, and it continues while austerity bites deeper and deeper elsewhere.

 

[Random]

Furthermore, the Cubans in particular seem to have taken great inspiration from their status as international pariahs.

They're not pariahs, with oil-rich Venezuela nearby. And through most of the Cuban revolution there was the Communist world community - USSR support, plus military missions in Angola, etc. What international support can a rejectionist Greece get?

 

[ayatollah]

I wouldn't call Communist Cuba or Sandinista Nicaragua "police states" of any description. By allowing their bourgeoisie to emigrate they avoided the necessity for serious repression.

Furthermore, the Cubans in particular seem to have taken great inspiration from their status as international pariahs. And surely no-one would argue that Cuban living standards are lower than they would have been under capitalism/imperialism--they'd have ended up like the Dominican Republic. Greece could do a lot worse than to follow Cuba's example.

We can argue about Cuba forever - I WOULD call Cuba nowadays a repressive police state.. come on phildwyer.. it just IS. I admire Castro and Che too - and the healthcare gains of the Cuban revolution.- but they just couldn't hold on to power over such a long period without setting up a VERY repressive state over the long term. That's the way it is - The Cubans as a whole have DEFINITELY had enough of "war communism" by now....... the revolution spreads or the worker's state falls under a stalinist regime eventually. However, in the Nicaraguan case, the capitalist sabotage and funded/armed right wing insurgency simply did eventually break the will of the Nicaraguans to keep on the revolutionery road --who did avoid the worst excesses of a stalinist regime - partly because they simply couldn't go down that route given Nicaragua'sa geographic position. The Nicaraguans simply voted out the Sandinistas. Nowadays Ortega is some sort of born again Blairite free enterpriser president !

It may be that a "war communism" period would be necessary for a Greece under worker's control -- but for this not to fall eventually into the long night of stalinism would require the revolution to spread pretty quickly.

 

[Random]

But much to be talking about war communism and workers' control simply because a bunch of ex-trots and Greens got 18 per cent of the vote.

 

[Red Storm]

But much to be talking about war communism and workers' control simply because a bunch of ex-trots and Greens got 18 per cent of the vote.

Got to look to the future. Greece's future looks like it could be in the hands of Sriyza, KKE and other anti-austerity leftists.

 

[Random]

To state the obvious: events in Greece will depend on what the working class do. Are the workers occupying factories and land? Can't find any info via Google.

Real fascism, in power, or some kind of technocracy/dictatorship will arise in response to the dangers of workers' movement. If Syriza and KKE simply negotiate based on votes, and other kinds of passive support, there's no way they'll have the clout to even break with the EU, nor will they probably even try. My bet is that the soft trots in Syriza will rreach a compromise, if not now, after the next election.

 

[London_Calling]

Whoa.....

...German parliament to delay ratification of the fiscal treaty. Reuters.

 

[phildwyer]

But much to be talking about war communism and workers' control simply because a bunch of ex-trots and Greens got 18 per cent of the vote.

Maybe so. But failing that, it's hard to see how capital is going to dig itself out of the hole it has dug. It took a world war last time, and I suspect that it will take a world war this time as well.

 

[phildwyer]

They're not pariahs, with oil-rich Venezuela nearby. And through most of the Cuban revolution there was the Communist world community - USSR support, plus military missions in Angola, etc. What international support can a rejectionist Greece get?

That's the big question innit. South America is one possibility, I suppose, but I wouldn't like to be reliant on Chavez for my survival. Basically Greece would be gambling on other EU states following their lead.

 

[Random]

Maybe so. But failing that, it's hard to see how capital is going to dig itself out of the hole it has dug. It took a world war last time, and I suspect that it will take a world war this time as well.

We're not living in an age like the 1930s, when left and right were already killing each other, and militant nationalism was a mass movement in many countries. We're living in an age of mass passivity - in the sense that the mass movements have been demobilised by decades of compromises and defeats.

Whos going to launch a hot war? I think we're more likely to slowly and nastily sink into a gray technocratic soft-authoritarian version of capitalism, with dissent made very unattractive, and mass surveillance taken for granted.

 

[Random]

That's the big question innit. South America is one possibility, I suppose, but I wouldn't like to be reliant on Chavez for my survival. Basically Greece would be gambling on other EU states following their lead.

I can't see that any would. Maybe in a few years time, if an example is made of Greece.

 

[phildwyer]

We can argue about Cuba forever - I WOULD call Cuba nowadays a repressive police state.. come on phildwyer.. it just IS. I admire Castro and Che too - and the healthcare gains of the Cuban revolution.- but they just couldn't hold on to power over such a long period without setting up a VERY repressive state over the long term. That's the way it is - The Cubans as a whole have DEFINITELY had enough of "war communism" by now.......

I must emphatically disagree. My experience in Cuba was that the revolution remains extremely popular among ordinary Cubans. The only people I met who vehemently opposed the regime were criminals.

Remember that the alternative to Castro is not now, and never was, Miami-style opulence. The alternative was and remains Dominican Republic-style poverty. The Cuban people know this very well.

It may be that a "war communism" period would be necessary for a Greece under worker's control -- but for this not to fall eventually into the long night of stalinism would require the revolution to spread pretty quickly.

This I agree with.

 

[phildwyer]

Whos going to launch a hot war?

Israel.

 

[Random]

Israel.

When?

 

[phildwyer]

When?

Within ten years.

 

[Random]

So far all the things that would make an Israeli strike on Iran are tending the other way. Their military intelligence says Iran isn't going for a bomb, the two main parties have just compromised into a grand coalition, the power of Russia and China versus the USA is only growing. Israel is probably the main loose cannon in the current set up, but even there I think the politicians are more interested in business as usual, than a world-changing cataclysm.

 

[phildwyer]

Random, can you make it clear that you rather than me wrote the above post? Ta.

 

[Random]

No idea how that quote formatting got in there

 

[phildwyer]

So far all the things that would make an Israeli strike on Iran are tending the other way. Their military intelligence says Iran isn't going for a bomb, the two main parties have just compromised into a grand coalition, the power of Russia and China versus the USA is only growing. Israel is probably the main loose cannon in the current set up, but even there I think the politicians are more interested in business as usual, than a world-changing cataclysm.

I think that the Israeli military and political leadership decided some time ago, probably correctly, that their position being surrounded by violently hostile states was untenable in the long term, because eventually those states would get their act together sufficiently to either mount a successful invasion or develop a nuclear bomb.

So they decided, reasonably enough from their perspective, to destroy all the hostile neighboring states. They are following this plan by persuading the USA to fight their wars for them by proxy. So far, Egypt, Iraq, Libya and Syria have been successfully rendered impotent for the foreseeable future. Iran is next. If possible, they'd like to do Iran as they're doing to Syria--and they had a pretty good try a couple of years ago, when the Western media claimed that the Iranian election had been fraudulent. But it didn't work. Plan B is the bomb.

 

[Random]

Your post doesn't really respond to mine, it just sets out a plausible theory, based on assertion alone. What do you actually say to my points - that all the signs we can see, show that the Israeli ruling class are less in favour of a military strike, and are less able to carry it out sucessfully?

 

[phildwyer]

Your post doesn't really respond to mine, it just sets out a plausible theory, based on assertion alone. What do you actually say to my points - that all the signs we can see, show that the Israeli ruling class are less in favour of a military strike, and are less able to carry it out sucessfully?

I take your points, and agree with them too. But my post wasn't based on mere assertion, but on observation of Western policy towards the middle east. One reason for our difference may be that I live in the USA, and am therefore constantly reminded of the control that Israel exercises over my government. People in the UK often find it hard to fathom Israel's power over American foreign policy. Those Americans who are even half-awake are well aware of it.

 

[temper_tantrum]

Interesting piece by Paul Mason - views, anyone?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18004903

 

[frogwoman]

 

[ayatollah]

To state the obvious: events in Greece will depend on what the working class do. Are the workers occupying factories and land? Can't find any info via Google.

Real fascism, in power, or some kind of technocracy/dictatorship will arise in response to the dangers of workers' movement. If Syriza and KKE simply negotiate based on votes, and other kinds of passive support, there's no way they'll have the clout to even break with the EU, nor will they probably even try. My bet is that the soft trots in Syriza will rreach a compromise, if not now, after the next election.

I think you are seriously "behind the curve" on the Greek situation, Random". Far be it from me to get you to read the Left press, but for instance this from Socialist Worker's "Greece roundup" :

The strike at the Eleftherotypia newspaper continues.
Strikers are set to produce the third issue of their workers’ controlled newspaper soon.
And occupiers at the Alter TV station have stopped bosses from cutting off their electricity.
Power workers sent a delegation to the workplace—and within five minutes convinced those sent to cut off the power to stop.

There is oodles of evidence across the mass media (Al Jazeera has been OK) of popular resistance and factory occupations all over Greece nowadays. The "passivity" which you refer to as if it was a permanent fixture in the European working class, and is still admittedly almost universal in the UK, was the result of 30 years of "debt bubble" prosperity. the prosperity is OVER , bigtime, since 2008. There is no obvious way out of the new Great Depression .. just wait awhile.. eventually as austerity really bites even the British working class will start stirring, and striking, and casting its votes in new directions (not always as we on the Left would like of course !)

Like you however I'm not at all sure that the disparate groups in Syriza have the "bottle" for this struggle as it gets ever more hairy. (Which is what the KKE thinks - and thinks it will be the eventual big winner - ratherthan the Colonels and/or Golden Dawn)

 

[Idris2002]

View attachment 18992

Last Tango in Athens?