Fedayn
Well-Known Member
At the vrey least it could enable a PASOK/ND/Whatever govt more likely to wring concessions out of the Euro as long as they stay on the 'Merkel' line.
Greek Parliamentary Election
- Thread starter Red Storm
- Start date
At the vrey least it could enable a PASOK/ND/Whatever govt more likely to wring concessions out of the Euro as long as they stay on the 'Merkel' line.
According to The Guardian today:
talks in Athens could result in the socialist leader, Evangelos Venizelos, forming a coalition between his Pasok party, the centre-right New Democracy and the Democratic Left, which would be able to command a parliamentary majority and avoid the need for fresh elections next month. The Democratic Left appeared to be softening its opposition to the austerity measures, in return for Greece receiving financial help from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
Which puts off Syriza having to form a government for a bit - AND as Fedayn says, the Syriza "menace" to capitalism does strengthen a Pasok/ND/DL goverments negotiating "hand" with the EU/bankers. Will they USE this better "hand" though ? I suspect NOT, despite conning the DL into the coalition on the basis of "extra help from the EU", not enough to significantly improve the dire living conditions of most Greeks anyway. .
The important thing is that this will buy more time for the crisis to "mature" in a radical direction in Spain (banks toppling already) , Portugal and Italy, before the Greek Radical Left is faced with taking on governmental power , and the face-off with international capitalism that this implies.
talks in Athens could result in the socialist leader, Evangelos Venizelos, forming a coalition between his Pasok party, the centre-right New Democracy and the Democratic Left, which would be able to command a parliamentary majority and avoid the need for fresh elections next month. The Democratic Left appeared to be softening its opposition to the austerity measures, in return for Greece receiving financial help from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
Which puts off Syriza having to form a government for a bit - AND as Fedayn says, the Syriza "menace" to capitalism does strengthen a Pasok/ND/DL goverments negotiating "hand" with the EU/bankers. Will they USE this better "hand" though ? I suspect NOT, despite conning the DL into the coalition on the basis of "extra help from the EU", not enough to significantly improve the dire living conditions of most Greeks anyway. .
The important thing is that this will buy more time for the crisis to "mature" in a radical direction in Spain (banks toppling already) , Portugal and Italy, before the Greek Radical Left is faced with taking on governmental power , and the face-off with international capitalism that this implies.
London_Calling
Pleasant and unpatronising
17th June looking possible for the re-run.
Momentum, momentum, momentum ...
Momentum, momentum, momentum ...
Riklet
procrastinación
The talks have failed haven't they? Two pro-austerity parties pitted with one fairly anti one is going to involve some pretty huge concessions from someone, and if the government then folds anyway they could alienate their electoral base/vote irreparably.
Assuming they're not employing Lib Dems as policy advisers, I can't see it happening. There doesn't seem the incentive when they can use the next month to campaign and try and get better results or even a clearer victory in a second election next month.
Who ever wins it seems quite likely there's ground for changing attitudes towards the EU/IMF in terms of the agreed deal, as well as how they'll play it and what it will mean for Greece if they call capital's bluff, force the banks to take the proper haircut and presumably get booted out of the eurozone as a result...
Assuming they're not employing Lib Dems as policy advisers, I can't see it happening. There doesn't seem the incentive when they can use the next month to campaign and try and get better results or even a clearer victory in a second election next month.
Who ever wins it seems quite likely there's ground for changing attitudes towards the EU/IMF in terms of the agreed deal, as well as how they'll play it and what it will mean for Greece if they call capital's bluff, force the banks to take the proper haircut and presumably get booted out of the eurozone as a result...
PASOK have abandoned talks. what happens now is unclear - article suggests President will "pressure parties into a government of national salvation". lol.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18041223
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18041223
So the Democratic Left DIDN'T sell out and join PASOK/ND in a coalition after all. Can't see the President being keen for elections in June - as Syriza could get a HUGE vote - PLUS that strange "extra 50 bonus" that the Greek constitution provides (the Tories here must be tempted to go for THAT here !) Maybe the President will appoint another " government of technocrats" until further notice ?
Yup, its getting hotter and HOTTER in Greece politically !
Yup, its getting hotter and HOTTER in Greece politically !
latest poll (got this off twitter so not 100% reliable)
Poll (Metron Analysis): Syriza 20.2%, ND 17.3%, Pasok 11.6%, IndGreeks 8.4%, DemLeft 4.3%, Communists 4.2%%, GolDawn 3.7%
i think this is one of the greek polls that does not take account of abstentions, hence lower results for all than other polls. above scores add to 69%.
Poll (Metron Analysis): Syriza 20.2%, ND 17.3%, Pasok 11.6%, IndGreeks 8.4%, DemLeft 4.3%, Communists 4.2%%, GolDawn 3.7%
i think this is one of the greek polls that does not take account of abstentions, hence lower results for all than other polls. above scores add to 69%.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Yeah, let's hope the Lib Dems dont decide to include that as part any electoral reform deal in the future
"acc to constitution he has to try for last time in a meeting with all the poilitc leaders, but almost zero chance to succeed" - again, off twitter (decent source though)
Only if the Greek's have the "Burmese Model" of "Parliamentary System" forced on them. Still our "Dave" thinks the "Burmese Model" is a "Step in the right direction" apparently - so he's for it at least.
I think the Golden Dawn boneheads I've seen are more horrifying as a terrible warning of the dangers of little exercise and massive beer guts to sad middle aged uniform fantasists , than a serious indication of fighting prowess. Any self respecting workers militia would have em all scattered in an afternoon (as long as they weren't backed up with army tanks of course , as the fascists in Chile were).
below is an article that suggests 50% of Greek police voted Golden Dawn.
the methods to achieve that figure seem suspect from what i can make of it, but very insightful if true, and according to Wikipedia the paper publishing the article (To Vima) is highly regarded in Greece. centre left, apparently tied to PASOK (so could be scare story).
http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http://www.tovima.gr/afieromata/elections2012/article/?aid=457088&hl=en&langpair=auto|en&tbb=1&ie=UTF-8
major problem for any far left which wants to take power imo - would be interested to know what whether the military are the same.
the methods to achieve that figure seem suspect from what i can make of it, but very insightful if true, and according to Wikipedia the paper publishing the article (To Vima) is highly regarded in Greece. centre left, apparently tied to PASOK (so could be scare story).
http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http://www.tovima.gr/afieromata/elections2012/article/?aid=457088&hl=en&langpair=auto|en&tbb=1&ie=UTF-8
major problem for any far left which wants to take power imo - would be interested to know what whether the military are the same.
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
My Da was in Greece three days before the '67 coup. He'd been thumbing around Europe. Anyway, he got talking to a peeler on the street who seemed affable enough. . . the next minute another guy came around the corner and the peeler whipped out his truncheon and started to batter the new guy senseless. . . .
But I digress. Any new "junta" will have a civilian figleaf, and maybe even some semblance of democratic legitimacy. . . . and clear blue water between itself and the death squads that are a general feature of such regimes.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Is that a serious possibility or is that just what people are speculating over? (Serious question btw - I don't really know anything about Greece)
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
I'd call it a possibility rather than a probability (neither of which are the same as a certainty). Open, naked military dictatorship in Europe wouldn't be acceptable unless things deteriorated to an ever worse level than they are. Fortunately, there's no chance of that happening.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Like exactly how bad are things in Greece though? I keep hearing about how it's a pre-revolutionary situation, possibility of military coups, even war, etc, (and not just from here, or from trot sources) but yet people are still going on holiday there 
I must seem really ignorant, I'm sorry.
I must seem really ignorant, I'm sorry.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
What do you think will happen? Have you lived in Greece before Idris or spent any time there? what do people you know (in academia etc) say about it?
(I'm actually looking at teaching jobs in Greece/neighbouring parts of the Balkans so this might become a bit more than an academic question)
Red Storm
M14
Apart from Belarus.
Europe has long tolerated naked dictatorships in Europe. I'm sure it will begin to remember how to tolerate them again should it be necessary.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Where and when?
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
In the EU were they? And when? How many years ago? What situations did they develop out of and how has the situation changed since?
Divisive Cotton
Now I just have my toy soldiers
It depends how bad things get. It's not at that stage at the moment but who knows in a year or two
Red Storm
M14
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
An overt coup, no. A "government of national unity", perhaps with some businessmen being drafted in to serve in a "non-political" capacity, that would be something else. . .
London_Calling
Pleasant and unpatronising
I'd call it fucking retarded. FFS, get a grip.
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