Greek Parliamentary Election

[JHE]

Below is a link to an interesting compilation of "golden dawn"' Nazi propaganda from their publications. Unfortunately it is in Greek, but from the plentiful pictures you can get an idea of their glorification of the Nazis and their "Greek" collaborators during the WWII occupation.

http://jungle-report.blogspot.com/2012/03/blog-post.html

If it is really true that New Dawn are enthusiastic about the WW2 German occupation of Greece, that will surely put a cap (and a low cap) on their potential support. Obviously, to grow they have to attract support from patriotic Greeks, who in general will be repulsed by support for the murderous Nazi occupation of their country.

 

[JHE]

Apparently, the establishment parties, ND and PASOC, hope that if there are new elections, people will think they have made their protest and will return to voting for ND and PASOC. Is that likely? I wouldn't have thought so.

 

[ymu]

faisalislam
Wow. While I was out, Athens Stock Exchange closed at its lowest level for two decades, driven lower by the banks, after Syriza comments

 

[ayatollah]

Whilst that is true, they also have to consider whether they can afford to squander the momentum. Plus, there is a slim chance of their being allowed a managed exit from the Euro, in order to prevent a domino-effect.

But a "managed exit" from the Euro is only a part of Greece's overall debt and domestic capitalist robbery of the nation's wealth problems. Even if they are "allowed to leave" (in fact I'm sure the Germans would be happy to CARRY em to the exit !) a Syriza government would still be in a Chilean Allende situation. They need to WAIT a while, build up their strength, make links with working class organisations in Spain, Italy, and Portugal etc, and hold their nerve. "momentum" leading to the slaughterhouse and another 20 years of military rule is no sort of momentum at all.

 

[Threshers_Flail]

Apparently, the establishment parties, ND and PASOC, hope that if there are new elections, people will think they have made their protest and will return to voting for ND and PASOC. Is that likely? I wouldn't have thought so.

No I can't see it either. People would have voted for these two hoping they could provide stability, failing to form a coalition wont help them at all.

 

[ymu]

But a "managed exit" from the Euro is only a part of Greece's overall debt and domestic capitalist robbery of the nation's wealth problems. Even if they are "allowed to leave" (in fact I'm sure the Germans would be happy to CARRY em to the exit !) a Syriza government would still be in a Chilean Allende situation. They need to WAIT a while, build up their strength, make links with working class organisations in Spain, Italy, and Portugal etc, and hold their nerve. "momentum" leading to the slaughterhouse and another 20 years of military rule is no sort of momentum at all.

It won't be easy, but Argentina did it 10 years ago (defaulted and abandoned the dollar peg, precisely analogous to the euro periphery), and has survived the sanctions to come out with faster growth than Brazil, including faster wage growth. They have some Bolivarian support, but I'd expect Syriza to get some support from South America also, should they decide to seize the moment.

 

[Red Storm]

Greece is in a hard place. Neither sides can form government. I think Syriza know the pro-austerity parties wont go with them conditions.

There seems to be a few possibilities to break the deadlock: new elections producing a majority coalition, technocrat rule or electoral reform.

I wonder if the left in Italy and Portugal will be able to achieve similar results in the near future.

 

[Riklet]

Can anyone see anti-austerity views making enough gains and general impact throughout europe in the next few weeks that SYRIZA could actually do even better in a future vote? Perhaps that's fantasy theorising, but it would be interesting... it seems unlikely anyone is going to be able to form a stable government currently.

What's the KKE's take on this all then Papa G? I was looking at the regional vote, some very high communist party votes on some of the greek islands, up to 24.5% iirc...

 

[ymu]

Yes, I think the tide is generally turning in favour of anti-austerity. And in a second run, some loyal main party voters might decide to vote for the option with the best chance of forming a stable coalition, if they see a grouping with enough credibility to pull it off.

KKE are ruling out joining a left coalition, last I heard.

 

[Riklet]

Yeah, their reasoning for this is laid out here and some bits are kinda convincing. Like I said, I genuinly don't know what to think in this situation, it seems complex enough for it to be hard to make a certain call either way.

KKE wouldn't have even gone to the negotiating table if they'd done well, as it is SYRIZA using it as a platform to put forward their demands, and those which somewhat mirror anti-austerity political groups in Europe has caused the Greek stock market to crash to 1992 levels and will probably get people talking all over Europe.

It seems like a tactical mistake to not use and exploit this opportunity carefully, putting hands over your ears and just yelling "no no no" isn't going to achieve much. Of course, playing the current situation doesn't necessarily mean joining or actually forming a government...

 

[Fedayn]

Seems SYRIZA are now lookint at trying to form a government, with KKE it's a Left minority, without it then it's even more of a minority.

 

[ayatollah]

It's hard to determine precisely what the KKE's analysis is from its statement on its website.. it could be the English translation hindering clarity, but basically it aint buying into any Syriza lash-up coalition --- and it is tactically correct IMO - because the Left taking over "responsibility" for Greece's basket case economy just now would be a bear trap. Hard to see what happens next though, another election next month ? Even bigger majority for the "austerity rejectionist" parties ? Eventually the Left may well have (parliamentary government) "power" thrust upon them - but power based on parliamentary elections is not the same as revolutionery power from a mass upheaval - and to get out of this political trap in a Left direction, rather than a military coup , will require radical action indeed. It's a tragedy that the KKE sees itself as a reborn 1917 Bolshevik Party (led of course by Stalin.. NOT Lenin and Trotsky) , viewing every other Left party as an agent or dupe of the bourgeoisie --- hopefully a lot of the KKE rank and file will have no choice but to muck in on the side of the wider Left when things come to a head in the now not too distant future I suspect.

 

[Red Storm]

It's hard to determine precisely what the KKE's analysis is from its statement on its website.. it could be the English translation hindering clarity, but basically it aint buying into any Syriza lash-up coalition --- and it is tactically correct IMO - because the Left taking over "responsibility" for Greece's basket case economy just now would be a bear trap. Hard to see what happens next though, another election next month ? Even bigger majority for the "austerity rejectionist" parties ? Eventually the Left may well have (parliamentary government) "power" thrust upon them - but power based on parliamentary elections is not the same as revolutionery power from a mass upheaval - and to get out of this political trap in a Left direction, rather than a military coup , will require radical action indeed. It's a tragedy that the KKE sees itself as a reborn 1917 Bolshevik Party (led of course by Stalin.. NOT Lenin and Trotsky) , viewing every other Left party as an agent or dupe of the bourgeoisie --- hopefully a lot of the KKE rank and file will have no choice but to muck in on the side of the wider Left when things come to a head in the now not too distant future I suspect.

Weren't they and the Irish CP the only CPs to support sending the tanks into Prague?

 

[London_Calling]

Apparently, the establishment parties, ND and PASOC, hope that if there are new elections, people will think they have made their protest and will return to voting for ND and PASOC. Is that likely? I wouldn't have thought so.

The word is the population is increasingly galvanised by Syriza and the message coming from the leadership ('Yes we can', etc). In a second election Syriza could even become the largest party and collect the extra 50 seats. Heady days.

A real vision would be for Alexis Tsiprasto to reach outside Greece and try to find partners to oppose the entrenched Germans.

 

[phildwyer]

a Syriza government would still be in a Chilean Allende situation.

I wonder about this. I'm not sure that a bloody military coup is possible within the EU, because it would be extremely difficult to contain the fallout within one country. I'm almost tempted to say that provoking a coup would be a good idea, because that might well spark a continent-wide revolt.

Or it might not. But obviously a coup in Greece would have serious consequences for the rest of Europe. For one thing, it would seriously undermine the democratic credentials of the rest of the EU governments. It would clearly be a game-changer, and maybe anything is better than the current situation.

Or maybe not.

 

[DownwardDog]

The word is the population is increasingly galvanised by Syriza and the message coming from the leadership ('Yes we can', etc). In a second election Syriza could even become the largest party and collect the extra 50 seats. Heady days.

A real vision would be for Alexis Tsiprasto to reach outside Greece and try to find partners to oppose the entrenched Germans.

Vision is one thing but whoever is unlucky enough to be in the Greek government is going to need more money from the EU/IMF or somewhere to keep the lights on by the end of June. I don't see how they are going to get that by telling all the creditors to get fucked.

 

[London_Calling]

by telling all the creditors to get fucked.

That's not the message though is it... the current demands are impossible to bear for the Greek working class and any Greeks in conventional employment, that's not to say all demands are unreasonable. There is, however, only dignity in rejecting the policy (of the old political establishment) of total appeasement.

The inference of that last word is clear - they should use it, imo.

 

[London_Calling]

Opinion piece in the FT this morning, essentially agreeing with Syriza:

Fiscal tightening does not improve outcomes in shrinking economies. Thus, austerity is merely begetting more austerity. According to the International Monetary Fund, the ratio of gross public debt to gross domestic product will rise, not fall, in every year from 2008 to 2013 in Ireland, Italy, Spain and Portugal. It will briefly fall in Greece, but only because of its debt restructuring.

The most frightening data are for unemployment (see chart). The proportion of young people between the ages of 15 and 25 who are now without a job is 51 per cent in Greece and Spain, 36 per cent in Portugal and Italy and 30 per cent in Ireland. France is in better shape, but even there the picture is dire, with one in five young people out of work. Is it plausible that people will put up with this indefinitely? No.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/51bf429c-...mail/201259/nbe/Comment/product#axzz1uLzMOUGm

 

[Kaka Tim]

Have to say it does warm the cockles to have a european government (well nearly government) speaking all lefty and telling the banks to go fuck themselves.

Its also interesting how we've gone from 'no alternative to austerity' and iron rules of fiscal compact - to the Euro big wigs talking up softening their demands and suddenly discovering that austerity doesn't seem to work very well in the space of about three days.

Its absolutely about the balance of class forces. Cuts and attacks on living standards are politically easier then trimming the profits of the rich and powerful - so we get TINA. Until the politics off fucking over the people bite them on the arse - and then either TINA fucks off or they force it though at gunpoint. We are (hopefully) a long way from the latter option.

 

[goldenecitrone]

Its also interesting how we've gone from 'no alternative to austerity' and iron rules of fiscal compact - to the Euro big wigs talking up softening their demands and suddenly discovering that austerity doesn't seem to work very well in the space of about three days.

I notice Cameron has stopped calling it austerity and is now calling it efficiency.

 

[ayatollah]

I notice Cameron has stopped calling it austerity and is now calling it efficiency.

And mass unemployment will forthwith be referred to as a "wideranging leisure opportunity"

 

[DownwardDog]

That's not the message though is it... the current demands are impossible to bear for the Greek working class and any Greeks in conventional employment, that's not to say all demands are unreasonable. There is, however, only dignity in rejecting the policy (of the old political establishment) of total appeasement.

The inference of that last word is clear - they should use it, imo.

None of which changes the fact that they are due for their next IMF/EU handout in June and if they don't get it they won't be able to pay wages, etc.

 

[ymu]

Decent article from Seumas Milne:

European elections: if the left doesn't lead revolt against austerity, others will

As the cost of the establishment's austerity deepens, the polarisation between left and right is portrayed in much of the media as the rise of "extremes". But it's both absurd and repugnant to equate racist or xenophobic nationalists, which have kept supposedly centrist governments in power from Denmark to Italy, with leftist parties rooted in social movements that stand for a progressive political and economic alternative.

Nor is there anything "extreme" about an organisation such as Syriza that rejects a programme of social and economic destruction which is in every sense extreme – and calls for negotiation. Mainstream political choices and debates have become so narrow over the years of pro-market consensus that the reappearance of genuine alternatives is apparently too shocking to absorb.

 

[ayatollah]

None of which changes the fact that they are due for their next IMF/EU handout in June and if they don't get it they won't be able to pay wages, etc.

Yep, you have raised a bit of a fundamental poser there DownwardDog. Though if there still isn't a functioning government by June I wonder if the EU will risk possible total social meltdown by cancelling the June tranche of the bailout cash ? Though isn't it the case that the overwhelming majority of the "bailout" cash never goes near Greece - but goes straight to the Eurozone banks to help pay interest on Greece's debt ? So what is the actual scale of the non-payment of the public sector if the bailout is cancelled ? One thing's clear , short of Syriza winning a "Mexican standoff" with the EU and getting MAJOR concessions on the austerity plan ( just about possible - but what then of Spain, Portugal, Ireland, etc ? the EU's banking overlords will think) , Greece IS going to have to find alternative sources of government funding if it renages on the austerity package, and possibly goes back to the Drachma. Hairy and tough time ahead in Greece, adhering, OR NOT, to the austerity agreement. One thing is clear, adhering TO the austerity agreement is simply slaughtering Greece's economy, so how bad can going it alone after a debt repudiation be ? (answer.. "pretty bloody bad too" !)

 

[London_Calling]

Hang on, RBS is 'too big to fail' but Greece isn't?

 

[ymu]

Greece Should ‘Default Big,’ Says Man Who Managed Argentina’s 2001 Crisis

What Spain (and Portugal, and Greece, etc.) could learn from Argentina’s successful default and devaluation

Democracies can stop predatory financiers – Argentina and Bolivia are showing how





(click pics for links)

 

[phildwyer]

None of which changes the fact that they are due for their next IMF/EU handout in June and if they don't get it they won't be able to pay wages, etc.

They'd survive. They'd have to batten down the hatches and get creative pretty quickly, but they can manage without the IMF/EU cash for long enough for the situation throughout Europe to change. Meanwhile, Greece would become a rallying point for opponents of austerity throughout the world, and there's no telling where that might lead.

If I were them, I'd nationalize the banks, tax the rich until the pips squeak, and literally tell the EU to bugger off. That would win them a great many friends. It would also earn them enemies of course, but the forces of capital are ranged against them whatever they do. Time for a historical gamble.

 

[phildwyer]

Hang on, RBS is 'too big to fail' but Greece isn't?

If Greece defaults on its debts, and does so in a defiant, non-apologetic way, the other PIIGS might very well do the same. And if that happens, then why would any nation pay its debts? And if nation states don't, why should individuals? And if everyone, or even quite a lot of people, decide simultaneously that they're not going to pay their debts, then capitalism will very soon collapse.

Someone, somewhere is going to have to take the lead. It might as well be Greece.

 

[DownwardDog]

They'd survive. They'd have to batten down the hatches and get creative pretty quickly, but they can manage without the IMF/EU cash for long enough for the situation throughout Europe to change.

What does "batten down the hatches" mean? Austerity with a human face?

Default, ejection from the eurozone and feverish printing of new drachma (the Argentinean solution) would be possible alternative to rattling the mendicants' bowl in the direction of Frankfurt. We'd be through the looking glass at that point and I don't think anybody would guarantee that whatever happened from then would be better or preferable to decades of grinding austerity fuelled depression.

 

[London_Calling]

Greece doesn't have to default, but it does have to not blink first - to be prepared to say, 'fuck you, we will do this if we have to'. Lets remember, all Syriza want is sane terms, terms that allow people to live with dignity.

Implicitly, they also want an acknowledgement that contracting the economy through imposed austerity year on year for the foreseeable - and increasing the debt burden on an ever-diminishing tax base - is economics of the mad house.

The German position is absolutely untenable. Fuck appeasement.