European Elections 2019

cupid_stunt · May 23, 2019

killer b said:
regional crossbreaks have too small a sample to mean anything guys.

Yeah, but it's fun! :mad:

teuchter · May 23, 2019

brogdale said:
"tactical" voting?

""tactical" voting? :confused:

"

SpackleFrog · May 23, 2019

brogdale said:
Yeah, but bin the YG 'outlier' and the spreads don't look *so* wild:
UKIP 2% - 4%
Lab 17% - 24%
Con 12% - 14%
Green 4% - 8%
LD 12% - 17%
Change 3% - 5%
Brexit 27% - 38%

Obviously struggling with Farage though.

Think turnout is a big issue as well. I've seen suggestions that it will be much higher than normal Euro elections.

YG is an outlier, but it was an outlier in 2017 as well and the crucial point is they got the turnout right. Not saying that means anything this time but I wouldn't be surprised if it did.

SpackleFrog · May 23, 2019

cupid_stunt said:
Yeah, but it's fun!

killer b hates fun!

brogdale · May 23, 2019

SpackleFrog said:
Think turnout is a big issue as well. I've seen suggestions that it will be much higher than normal Euro elections.

YG is an outlier, but it was an outlier in 2017 as well and the crucial point is they got the turnout right. Not saying that means anything this time but I wouldn't be surprised if it did.

Agreed, but locally I'm hearing that PV turnout looks consistent with an overall 40% turnout...so up, but not massively. I think there'll be many old tories sitting on their hands tbh.

killer b · May 23, 2019

SpackleFrog said:
YG is an outlier, but it was an outlier in 2017 as well and the crucial point is they got the turnout right. Not saying that means anything this time but I wouldn't be surprised if it did.

yougov's final (conventional) poll of 2017 predicted a Tory majority. Their MRP model was more or less right, but this is a conventional poll.

brogdale · May 23, 2019

teuchter said:
""tactical" voting?"

go on...

Pickman's model · May 23, 2019

brogdale said:
go on...

this can't end well

Pickman's model · May 23, 2019

mail

littlebabyjesus · May 23, 2019

SpackleFrog said:
Think turnout is a big issue as well. I've seen suggestions that it will be much higher than normal Euro elections.

YG is an outlier, but it was an outlier in 2017 as well and the crucial point is they got the turnout right. Not saying that means anything this time but I wouldn't be surprised if it did.

Yep it's the hardest thing for pollsters to get right. They can only go on precedent, and this rather strange election doesn't have much of that.

Wilf · May 23, 2019

Too late to make any real difference to today's vote, but withdrawing the bill again is pretty much a perfect gift to farage.

littlebabyjesus · May 23, 2019

brogdale said:
Agreed, but locally I'm hearing that PV turnout looks consistent with an overall 40% turnout...so up, but not massively. I think there'll be many old tories sitting on their hands tbh.

Old people vote, though, and all the polls I've seen show Farage getting a very big chunk of the old vote. This election is likely to make Britain look a lot more brexity than it actually is, I think.

Pickman's model · May 23, 2019

Wilf said:
Too late to make any real difference to today's vote, but withdrawing the bill again is pretty much a perfect gift to farage.

I was giving interviews on my bus not cowering from the milkshake mob, insists Nigel Farage | Daily Mail Online

Pickman's model · May 23, 2019

littlebabyjesus said:
Old people vote, though, and all the polls I've seen show Farage getting a very big chunk of the old vote. This election is likely to make Britain look a lot more brexity than it actually is, I think.

yeh right on a 54% turnout or thereabouts which i've seen mooted the top brexit party vote anticipated to be 40% -> c.21.6% of your actual electorate

really brexity that

chilango · May 23, 2019

On my way to the polling station. Still torn between Labour Vs Squeegees Vs spoil.

killer b · May 23, 2019

A lot of the soft Labour vote in my orbit that I thought would maybe lean Green or Lib Dem today seem to be sticking with Labour. It's a very small sample size, but if that's replicated nationwide (

) then Labour might not do too badly.

brogdale · May 23, 2019

littlebabyjesus said:
Old people vote, though, and all the polls I've seen show Farage getting a very big chunk of the old vote. This election is likely to make Britain look a lot more brexity than it actually is, I think.

Agreed that the old tend to vote but, anecdotally, I'm hearing stories of regular tory oldsters just not voting this time. Maybe be inconsequential, but you know...

chilango · May 23, 2019

Voted Labour in the end. Just to piss off the "you can't have a Marxist in No.10" brigade.

Shit reason. But there you go.

littlebabyjesus · May 23, 2019

chilango said:
Voted Labour in the end. Just to piss off the "you can't have a Marxist in No.10" brigade.

Shit reason. But there you go.

As good a reason as any. I considered voting for someone else but went Labour in the end, for about the same reason.

teuchter · May 23, 2019

brogdale said:
go on...

"go on..." :confused:

chilango · May 23, 2019

chilango said:
Voted Labour in the end. Just to piss off the "you can't have a Marxist in No.10" brigade.

Shit reason. But there you go.

...bonus reason. It'll piss off the Leavers and Remainers I know in equal numbers

chilango · May 23, 2019

A few people kicking around the polling station. Similar numbers to usual. Only the Greens out ticking off their vote.

Pickman's model · May 23, 2019

chilango said:
A few people kicking around the polling station. Similar numbers to usual. Only the Greens out ticking off their vote.

yeh there was a green outside our polling station too

littlebabyjesus · May 23, 2019

chilango said:
...bonus reason. It'll piss off the Leavers and Remainers I know in equal numbers

I had a semi-positive reason as well. If the tories are wiped out, I don't think it helps any if labour are also wiped out. Tories only ones wiped out would be so much worse for them.

chilango · May 23, 2019

littlebabyjesus said:
I had a semi-positive reason as well. If the tories are wiped out, I don't think it helps any if labour are also wiped out. Tories only ones wiped out would be so much worse for them.

Also. I don't want the fucking Lib Dems to finish any higher.

Pickman's model · May 23, 2019

chilango said:
Also. I don't want the fucking Lib Dems to finish any higher.

i want the greens to finish above the limp dems

teuchter · May 23, 2019

I think I'm going to vote lib dem to annoy as many people on U75 as possible.

Pickman's model · May 23, 2019

teuchter said:
I think I'm going to vote lib dem to annoy as many people on U75 as possible.

a desperate cry for attention ^

Teaboy · May 23, 2019

teuchter said:
I think I'm going to vote lib dem to annoy as many people on U75 as possible.

I think a vote for team chuckie would probably trump that.

SpookyFrank · May 23, 2019

This fiasco makes me very glad I'm not registered to vote.

European Elections 2019

Who are you voting for in the European elections 2019

Labour

Conservative

Green Party

Liberal Democrats

SNP

Plaid Cymru

Our Nation

Brexit Party

UK Independence Party

Change Uk

Buckethead

Not Voting

Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.

je suis teuchter

Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts

Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts

Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism

That vase.

Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism

Starry Wisdom

Starry Wisdom

one of Maxwell's demons

Slouching towards Billingham

one of Maxwell's demons

Starry Wisdom

Starry Wisdom

Hypothetical Wanker

That vase.

Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism

Hypothetical Wanker

one of Maxwell's demons

je suis teuchter

Hypothetical Wanker

Hypothetical Wanker

Starry Wisdom

one of Maxwell's demons

Hypothetical Wanker

Starry Wisdom

je suis teuchter

Starry Wisdom

It definitely looks brighter over there..

A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel

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