Half the wealth gone of those encouraged by Daily Express articles to put their mortgages on it at $19,000.
Yes, it might go up. But right now, even this hyped up marketplace reckons it is only worth what it is worth.
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Yes, it might go up. But right now, even this hyped up marketplace reckons it is only worth what it is worth.
camouflage
gaslit at scale.
Short contracts taken in December closed at 16:00 GMT, will that paint a discernible narrative on the graphs do you think (such that we can attribute a cause and effect)?
mauvais
on reddit or something
Err, what?
bimble
floofy
I didn’t understand that either. Bf did text to say he’s make loads more money than me out of bitcoin today but his short doesn’t ‘end’ (?) till Feb.
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
Your comment is hilarious for many reasons other people have picked up. For my own part, see that bit in bold The Fornicator? The bit where you accuse me of not paying attention? Quite funny because my post was solely aimed at Ranbay who, documented here quite extensively, y'know, for those paying attention, has been waiting for such a crash in order they can pay back the fraction of a BC they owed before it spiraled horribly out of control (not to say expense) for them.
So anyway. You were saying?
mauvais
on reddit or something
This tells us nothing. Why do you think anything interesting has happened today?
camouflage
gaslit at scale.
Heresay old boy, heresay. Actually I thought it's the last friday of the month for the likes of bimbles boyfriend to collect their winnings from last month but apparently today's the day. I'm not a day trader or anything so don't be shocked and outraged if I'm wrong.
mauvais
on reddit or something
AFAIK, shorts can be ended whenever anyone likes. You seem to be implying, perhaps unintentionally, that a load of shorts ended today and therefore the price will now rebound. Someone might have told you this, but that someone is either a numpty or is interested in propagating information that causes people to buy in - bog standard manipulation.
If you were playing poker and heard 'hearsay' about someone else's hand, you probably wouldn't be inclined to take it too seriously. So...
camouflage
gaslit at scale.
On tea-leaves and watching graphs- a lot of people look at graphs of past performance and tell a story about what they mean so they can project into the future based on past understanding. It's a seductive notion really, but you may as well read your star-signs or study tea-leaves or the entrails of a chicken imo.
Sometimes there's an obvious plunge, like a China Bans Bitcoin again, or an Mt Gox scandal... usually no one is sure why because people can only ever see the "Arena" quadrant of Johari's Window. Anyway I reckon what the graph-readers are really doing is staring at shapes in clouds and making a story with them, a narrative. They like to draw lines on graphs and say "this means that", who knows... maybe there's value in there somewhere. a bunch of shorts close today at 16:00 GMT you say? (sez I), very well... let's see if it does show up on the graph, that would corroborate the story. That's not to imply that this means I for one intend to do anything about anything, I'm a dreamer, not a Doer... but curious to see if that prophecy is real.
Sometimes there's an obvious plunge, like a China Bans Bitcoin again, or an Mt Gox scandal... usually no one is sure why because people can only ever see the "Arena" quadrant of Johari's Window. Anyway I reckon what the graph-readers are really doing is staring at shapes in clouds and making a story with them, a narrative. They like to draw lines on graphs and say "this means that", who knows... maybe there's value in there somewhere. a bunch of shorts close today at 16:00 GMT you say? (sez I), very well... let's see if it does show up on the graph, that would corroborate the story. That's not to imply that this means I for one intend to do anything about anything, I'm a dreamer, not a Doer... but curious to see if that prophecy is real.
mauvais
on reddit or something
Two points, in broad agreement.
One, you can't trade reactively on news, because you are slow, in a variety of ways - no inside information and more simply, it's not your professional day job.
Two, this kind of trend & narrative analysis - which goes back to the earlier mention of technical analysis - may have some use, but not here. The more traditional an entity, and I mean like the biggest and most boring public company you can think of, IBM or something, then arguably the more you can predict patterns pertaining to it. You could look at a sudden decline in the face of bad news, like VW and Dieselgate, and credibly argue, 'that's oversold', because all of the people panicking on news have forgotten that the company is a hundred years old and has weathered much worse.
But Bitcoin movements are rapid, irrational, have basically no history, are probably manipulated, and so are inherently unpredictable. It's basically just noise, no point looking for patterns in it. Plus, as ever, correlation is not causation.
So for Joe Public, there's no point trying to be clever about it: it's just gambling.
camouflage
gaslit at scale.
I know this, it's not, I don't, didn't mean to give the impression I sit at my desk here in front of three monitors. Actually I do sit at three monitors at work but nothing to do with day trading. Anyway they all use bots and algos these days. I used the word "corroboration" to imply that saying. I do think that lots of people looking at the same graphs with the same narratives in their minds or at least the same way of thinking can induce sort of self-fulfilling prophecies to an extent... a spell easily and regularly broken.
Human beings can be clever at anything, it's what we do... satisfaction not guaranteed obvs.
bimble
floofy
I thought this was a pretty good article, particularly the bit comparing it to gold:
" Crypto-evangelists often cite gold as a similar asset class, in that it has no value beyond marginal industrial uses; its value is what people say it is. Maybe that’s a good comparison, but I’d apply it differently, by noting that the base value of gold is not just in those industrial uses, but also in the hundreds of millions of people around the world who believe that it looks good or can bestow prestige. Granted, this is a historical/cultural value, yet it’s proven pretty reliable over the past, oh, 5,000 years or so. And it comprises at least part of the price of gold, one that should persist no matter how other factors fare.
In that sense, Bitcoin has a similar base value, but it lies not in history but ideology: namely, the belief among evangelists that the world is in need of a medium of exchange backed only by computation and free from the oversight and manipulations of governments and corporations.
How many Bitcoin investors today hold to that ideal is an open question, but I think it’s safe to assume that the recent speculative bubble has not been fuelled by a mass conversion to libertarianism. If that’s right, then the base or “intrinsic” value of Bitcoin, supported by true believers, is somewhere under US$1,000 — where it was a year ago. (That’s assuming, of course, that the believers’ faith is more or less unshakeable; we’ll see what happens if the meltdown continues.)
Everything else (about US$10,000 this week) is the speculator’s share of price and has proven itself to be remarkably volatile — which is to say, hardly a good store of value. The gold price, which has seen annual moves in double-digit percentages before, is capricious enough, but it can’t hold a candle to Bitcoin.
The other problem is probably bigger: as a currency, Bitcoin sucks.."
Bitcoin’s ‘happy dream’ looking more like a nightmare after 50% fall from peak
" Crypto-evangelists often cite gold as a similar asset class, in that it has no value beyond marginal industrial uses; its value is what people say it is. Maybe that’s a good comparison, but I’d apply it differently, by noting that the base value of gold is not just in those industrial uses, but also in the hundreds of millions of people around the world who believe that it looks good or can bestow prestige. Granted, this is a historical/cultural value, yet it’s proven pretty reliable over the past, oh, 5,000 years or so. And it comprises at least part of the price of gold, one that should persist no matter how other factors fare.
In that sense, Bitcoin has a similar base value, but it lies not in history but ideology: namely, the belief among evangelists that the world is in need of a medium of exchange backed only by computation and free from the oversight and manipulations of governments and corporations.
How many Bitcoin investors today hold to that ideal is an open question, but I think it’s safe to assume that the recent speculative bubble has not been fuelled by a mass conversion to libertarianism. If that’s right, then the base or “intrinsic” value of Bitcoin, supported by true believers, is somewhere under US$1,000 — where it was a year ago. (That’s assuming, of course, that the believers’ faith is more or less unshakeable; we’ll see what happens if the meltdown continues.)
Everything else (about US$10,000 this week) is the speculator’s share of price and has proven itself to be remarkably volatile — which is to say, hardly a good store of value. The gold price, which has seen annual moves in double-digit percentages before, is capricious enough, but it can’t hold a candle to Bitcoin.
The other problem is probably bigger: as a currency, Bitcoin sucks.."
Bitcoin’s ‘happy dream’ looking more like a nightmare after 50% fall from peak
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I said all that a while ago.
bimble
floofy
Yes its the bit about how few of the current holders of btc are true believers that i liked, that's what makes it interesting.
joustmaster
offcumdun
That isn't the first time someone has posted a very similar graph about that bubble pattern.
in 2013:
joustmaster
offcumdun
and also 6 months before that, too.
Yossarian
⏭️
Would that count as a bubble? Looks like it took prices around 4 years to get back to where they were.
joustmaster
offcumdun
I don't really know what a bubble means.
Something that, once burst, never really recovers?
Or something volatile and easy to manipulate?
Tulips still have a value to this day. The first Google link I found suggest they are about £1.50 a bulb.
Yossarian
⏭️
A common definition seems to be a price rise way beyond "historic norms and intrinsic value," I guess there's not really any such thing as a historic norm with cryptocurrencies.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Creation of fictitious capital in anticipation of future returns, where those future returns never materialise?
One thing I don't think anyone denies is that the current price of btc is at least 10 and probably more like 100 times greater than any realistic valuation of its current use value. That disjoint is due purely to speculation - buying in anticipation of the price continuing to go up, rather than any consideration of use value. Is there then any rational basis to that speculation? I would say no - I don't see its use value going up - it has an inbuilt system to bring it down as mining becomes less and less rewarding, and the current limits on transaction volume are truly puny, even with bitcash.
And that's not even considering the crazy energy waste, which aside from being immoral also sets limits on its utility.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
How?
Genuine question - without mining, there is no blockchain, and with no blockchain, there are no 'third-party-free' transactions. Bitcoin's already tiny use value drops even further - its usp is gone.
8ball
Decolonise colons!
Maybe I'm not familiar enough with it, but I think there is a limit of about 21 million bitcoins that can be mined, meaning eventually you won't be able to suddenly decide to "print more money" in the way you can with other currencies.
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