2016 Holyrood Election Thread: polling, coverage, issues.

[danny la rouge]

Election 2016 dashboard

"Sean Swan casts a critical eye over the psephology of the contest and the implications for each of the main parties."

 

[redcogs]

Not entirely on topic, but the divisions within the Scottish Left remain absolutely tragic.

i will vote SNP in the main ballot (for an unworthy candidate). i want to cast for a socialist on the list vote, yet find at least three possible alternatives. Both the RISE and 'Solidarity' election broadcasts are good IMV, i aint seen the Communist Party one. But a fragmented Left vote is such a huge waste of potential.

Very sad.

 

[steeplejack]

The divisions on the Scottish Left will only begin to "heal" with the disappearance of Tommy Sheridan and his political party /fanclub from the scene. It really is that simple. Gail Sheridan has said that it will be the end of the road for Tommy if he fails to get in this time; given the clown-running-across-a-minefield antics of his party in the last two weeks, that seems likely to be quite soon.

RISE are staunchly pro-indy, a mix of the old SSP and electorally minded elements within the RIC. I am deeply skeptical of their performance thus far which seems to be an unhealthy blend of shouty Trot megaphone antics coupled with SYRIZA's E-list "stardust". I very much doubt they will be elected anywhere, as few outwith the far left scenesters and readers of the National have heard of them (despite obvious delusion to the contrary amongst the more prominent candidates).

The CPB are the vote, in the North-East at least, for the anti-independence left; their one list candidate's twitter seems to offer little more than re-tweeting Better Together and Scottish Labour lines. No thanks.

A plague on all their houses, to be honest.

 

[redcogs]

It is interesting that one person could be perceived to be at the root of the current alienated situation within the Scottish Left. Tommy is in his early fifties i believe, and could have 30 years activity in him. If the radical section of Scotland's population has to place socialist politics on hold until the mid 21st century, just because one individual has badly fucked up, then we truly are wasted.

Time is said to be a great healer, but a two generation delay before a recombination of the socialist Left can begin may be too long. Scotland's parliament needs a return to the days of a clear and passionate socialist voice, and i reckon that, however difficult, in the interests of humanity, the Left needs to get beyond the bitterness associated with past trauma.

i've no idea where such a process starts though.

 

[butchersapron]

It is interesting that one person could be perceived to be at the root of the current alienated situation within the Scottish Left. Tommy is in his early fifties i believe, and could have 30 years activity in him. If the radical section of Scotland's population has to place socialist politics on hold until the mid 21st century, just because one individual has badly fucked up, then we truly are wasted.

Time is said to be a great healer, but a two generation delay before a recombination of the socialist Left can begin may be too long. Scotland's parliament needs a return to the days of a clear and passionate socialist voice, and i reckon that, however difficult, in the interests of humanity, the Left needs to get beyond the bitterness associated with past trauma.

i've no idea where such a process starts though.

You're making a clear suggestion that it starts around Sheridan though. Aren't you?

 

[butchersapron]

And yeah, he was the one who blew it apart. One person.

 

[redcogs]

You're making a clear suggestion that it starts around Sheridan though. Aren't you?

That isn't my essential feeling butchers'.

It is hard to imagine a Scottish Left in which Sheridan (and his acolytes) did not have a role. After all, he does have significant ability, and retains at least some respect amongst the electorate (capable of filling meeting rooms etc).

The problem, as ever, is how the Left can create an organisational form that can simultaneously control the super egos that emerge from time to time, and provide an internal atmosphere that is attractive, democratic, and habitable for 'ordinary' people who want change.

Probably you agree its a project that aint easy.

 

[danny la rouge]

NB: contains a link to the Daily Record.

 

[gosub]

off the back of that survation poll.

 

[DexterTCN]

Massive distrust of Rise...behind Ukip. Fucking hell.

Interesting

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

Massive distrust of Rise...behind Ukip. Fucking hell.

Interesting

Massive lack of anyone having even heard of RISE, most likely.

 

[Celyn]

Massive distrust of Rise...behind Ukip. Fucking hell.

Interesting

What? Does that mean that RISE is somehow a sneaky power supporting UKIP by the back door? Which can't make sense, really. So is it that RISE is polling lower than UKIP? That can't be true, surely?

 

[Celyn]

Massive lack of anyone having even heard of RISE, most likely.

You think? That could be the case. Hard for me to guess.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

You think? That could be the case. Hard for me to guess.

It's the usual left thing - micro-groupings that no-one outside the incestuous bubble knows or cares about. Well, rarely knows or cares about anyway. The SSP had a thing going for a while, but look how that turned out.

 

[Celyn]

Well, yes, that's sort of the thing - I don't know much about anything and I can't go out leafletting and canvassing. For me, oh yeah, I see a lot about RISE, but that's likely only 'cos I follow it on Twitter and RISE tends to get a good enough publicity in some media quarters.

I would like RISE to be real and useful, but I fear it might not be and might be a bit of misdirection. And I'm quite sure that Cat Boyd, the holy saint of RISE around here, might be a wonderful person, but holy shit, what is wrong with the left?

It's all People's Front of Judea, and is all bad. And sad. Ach, you know the script.

 

[DexterTCN]

Massive lack of anyone having even heard of RISE, most likely.

They've had big puff pieces in the guardian, daily record, herald, scotsman and bbc recently.

Up here...that's actually a bad thing.

The recent ERS fuss made things worse.

They are seen as factional, divisive and pugnacious whereas the independence movement is about trying to foster cohesion and unity. Rise are targeting the votes of other independence-supporting parties.

Hopefully they'll be smothered out of existence on May the 5th.

Boyd and the other positives within their group should read the signs and jump ship, they would be welcome in other parties. Not colin fox and his gang, obviously.

 

[danny la rouge]

It's the usual left thing - micro-groupings that no-one outside the incestuous bubble knows or cares about. Well, rarely knows or cares about anyway. The SSP had a thing going for a while, but look how that turned out.

Exactly this. Nobody in the real world knows who or what RISE are.

 

[murphy1970]

The central weakness in the SNPs belief in the inevitability of independence is the nature of the SNP vote.
The SNP make much of their electoral success, whilst never reflecting on the fact that certain areas that are now considered key SNP safe areas, are also No voting, and going on a crude class basis, the sort of rural, middle class seat which used to habitually re-elect Conservatives or Liberals.
I have no doubt the SNP will skate this election, and I equally have no doubt that many people voting SNP on their managerial record wouldn't consider voting Yes to independence in a new referendum.
I'm prepared to be proved wrong, and as a Yes campaigner and natural pessimist, I'll be happy to be proved wrong, but I don't see any evidence that the No vote from the referendum has crumbled to any great extent and barring some exceptional political upheavals or contingencies, I find it unlikely there will be any fresh referendum within the next 5 or 6 years.

 

[gosub]

The central weakness in the SNPs belief in the inevitability of independence is the nature of the SNP vote.
The SNP make much of their electoral success, whilst never reflecting on the fact that certain areas that are now considered key SNP safe areas, are also No voting, and going on a crude class basis, the sort of rural, middle class seat which used to habitually re-elect Conservatives or Liberals.
I have no doubt the SNP will skate this election, and I equally have no doubt that many people voting SNP on their managerial record wouldn't consider voting Yes to independence in a new referendum.
I'm prepared to be proved wrong, and as a Yes campaigner and natural pessimist, I'll be happy to be proved wrong, but I don't see any evidence that the No vote from the referendum has crumbled to any great extent and barring some exceptional political upheavals or contingencies, I find it unlikely there will be any fresh referendum within the next 5 or 6 years.

All political careers end in failure, the longer SNP is in power the more "blame Westminster" to every fuckup will wear thin. However the process may take longer given a media that tries to find an angle to blame SNP for everything

 

[danny la rouge]

"With little more than a week and a half to go to the Scottish Parliament election (albeit with Labour remarkably still to unveil its manifesto) it seems there is nothing that can stand in the way of a second SNP overall majority. However, the battle for second place is evidently not resolved, as indeed is the question of who might come fourth.

Two polls published last week both put the SNP comfortably in pole position. The first came from BMG Research in what represented that company’s first ever published poll north of the border. Reported in The Herald, it put the SNP on 53% on the constituency vote and 46% on the list. The second was from Survation for the Daily Record. It also put the SNP on 53% on the constituency vote though, as is typical of the company’s polls, it put the nationalists rather lower on the list at 43%. Neither figure was more than a point different from either Survation’s poll earlier this monthfor Unison or that for the Daily Record itself in mid-March."

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2016/04/labour-still-struggle-to-secure-second-place-2/

 

[danny la rouge]

 

[danny la rouge]

So, the election has up until now been pretty boring, mainly because the results are not really in question, and there's no effective opposition. The SNP are expected to do very well, and the only interest is how badly Labour will do: will they be beaten into 3rd place?

Now, along comes what is being called Dandygate. Nicola Sturgeon was pictured posing holding a copy of the Sun; a bit of a wrong step to say the least in the week of the Hillsborough findings. Now, this won't really affect the outcome on Thursday, but it has led to some fallout. Most entertainingly that some SNP supporters are claiming that the orginal picture was of her holding up a copy of the Dandy, but that this was either doctored by malicious Unionists or by the duplicitious Sun. Whatever the truth of what the original picture was, the Dandy one doing the rounds is a poor photoshop, as anyone who looks at the pixels round Nicola's fingers could tell.

SNP die-hards are saying that the boycott south of the border doesn't apply here, because the Scottish edition of the Sun is really a different paper to the Sun produced in England. While it's true that there is a different editor and the editorial policy is often quite different, to the extent that the Sun in Scotland did not carry the infamous "The Truth" headline after Hillsborough (nor did it splash with the "apology" 25 years later, though it carried a small box on its front page), it is still the Sun, it is still owned by News Group Newspapers Ltd, part of Murdoch's empire, and last week it still followed the English edition in ignoring the Hillsborough findings on its front page. If you buy a Scottish Sun, the money still goes to Murdoch.

Nobody is saying that this will change much about the results on Thursday, but it is a serious mis-step by Sturgeon. And it calls into question just what sort of values she holds.

 

[danny la rouge]

Buzzfeed's version of events:

There's An Absurd Photoshop Conspiracy About Nicola Sturgeon And The Dandy

 

[The Boy]

Whatever the truth of what the original picture was, the Dandy one doing the rounds is a poor photoshop, as anyone who looks at the pixels round Nicola's fingers could tell.

Or anyone who remembers holding a copy of The Dandy - I know my hands were smaller back then, but it deffo wasn't tabloid size, was it?

 

[gosub]

Nicola Sturgeon in 2012 (when the Dandy was last printed)

 

[weepiper]

A facebook friend phoned the SNP to ask if the Sun picture was real:

the SNP office has phoned me up - I can confirm that the picture in the SNP endorsement is an endorsement of the Sun's position of supporting independence...

 

[danny la rouge]

Not liking that because I like the news. But because it's what we thought.

 

[gosub]

Going by the clothing (fucking hate myself for saying that) I would say it was taken on the 29th Feb 2016, when Mrs Sturgeon was in London, giving a speech outlining her support for staying in the EU over a month or so before that cover was printed

 

[danny la rouge]

 

[Fedayn]

Ftom the Daily Record political editor.

David Clegg‏ @davieclegg

I took a picture of Nicola being pictured holding The Sun if that helps clear anything up...
2 May 2016, 00:09:14