2016 Holyrood Election Thread: polling, coverage, issues.

[DotCommunist]

I think Slab have pissed their chips utterly tbh. Standing jim 'never done a real days graft' murphy for gods sake. For now anyway. If c-byn manages a stunning victory and a full soc/dem progam in 2016? I think theres a lot of people who broadly agree with Union but ditched labour over indyreff and in the knowledge of the limited devolution already in place. A case where the devil you know turned out to be the actual devil so switch to a party offering something other than being repeatedly fucked over in hell.

 

[danny la rouge]

I think Slab have pissed their chips utterly tbh. Standing jim 'never done a real days graft' murphy for gods sake. For now anyway. If c-byn manages a stunning victory and a full soc/dem progam in 2016? I think theres a lot of people who broadly agree with Union but ditched labour over indyreff and in the knowledge of the limited devolution already in place. A case where the devil you know turned out to be the actual devil so switch to a party offering something other than being repeatedly fucked over in hell.

Oh, there's no doubt: not all of the SNP's current vote is people who voted Yes.

 

[danny la rouge]

TNS poll shows SNP 2nd votes wasted: Alan Bisset backs RISE for a Yes parliament

“The polling has been consistent for months: the SNP will win another majority government on the constituency vote alone; voting for the SNP on the second vote is a wasted vote for indy supporters and will mean less RISE and Green MSPs and more Labour and Tory MSPs."

 

[danny la rouge]

Labour is bracing itself for electoral humiliation at the hands of the SNP

"According to one analysis, if the results were repeated on polling day Labour would drop from 37 to 26 seats, the SNP would gain one to reach 70, the Tories would gain three to reach 18, the Lib Dems would rise from five to seven and the Greens from two to eight."

Labour would be relying entirely on regional list seats, which would also see the Lib Dems and Tories gaining seats.

 

[DexterTCN]

Sorry, what have labour (aka the red tories) got to do with the upcoming election? Everyone knows what's going to happen to them. I thought that was clear?

You're also not really relaying the humour here. Prominent labourites will be climbing over each other to get on the list selection, throwing any cannon-fodder they can convince to stand for unwinnable seats.

 

[LeslieB]

labour (aka the red tories)

Because of course there is absolutely no difference between Jeremy Corbyn and David Cameron........

 

[Celyn]

Because of course there is absolutely no difference between Jeremy Corbyn and David Cameron........

Leaving aside those two, why do you recommend, as it seems you do, voting for Kezia Dugdale's lot?

 

[LeslieB]

I don't recommend voting for anyone in particular, and I'm not in Scotland so don't have any involvement in this election.

What does annoy me though, is when people lazily describe the Tories and Labour as the same. They aren't- obviously they both support the union but otherwise the differences between them are real and substantial.

 

[DexterTCN]

Perhaps you'd like to list those differences, in a Scottish context.

 

[gosub]

I'm not in Scotland either anymore but did check when last up there, the new SNP MP does under half the constituency surgeries the old Labour MP did.
The MSP that used to do them with him is standing down this election too.

 

[DexterTCN]

Did you notice this?



A tsunami, a lightning fast cultural shift. Almost every day something new strengthens it. A constant, non-violent thing. Using votes to effect long-term change when the chance comes by the people and the use of politics to the same end from the ones with power.

Some think it's a cult-like thing and dismiss it. Others laugh it off as nationalism and dismiss it. Some just dismiss it.

You've never seen (honest) results like that, I would guess, in a stable, first-world country (-ish). Carpe Diem, as they say. This is about something else.

So the polls.....what do they say? Everyone knows. Wipeout. SNP majority in a parliament designed not to have a majority. Plus the support of most of the people, not just the votes.

The only reason no-one can predict how much of a wipeout is because we haven't quite worked the voting system out yet.

 

[LeslieB]

Perhaps you'd like to list those differences, in a Scottish context.

I'm afraid I've got a million other things to do- i'll leave it to people who live there.

But you simply can't say Conservatives and Labour are the same because they aren't.......

 

[DexterTCN]

I'm afraid I've got a million other things to do- i'll leave it to people who live there.

But you simply can't say Conservatives and Labour are the same because they aren't.......

Well....they are to the majority of people in Scotland. Obviously.

I did post a graph you know. Look at the Thatcher years then the Blair years. Spot the bit where Scots felt totally betrayed and actually had the opportunity to do something about it.

What you mean is they're not the same where you are or in your experience....and that anyone who disagrees is lazy and annoying. Not feeling the love.

 

[danny la rouge]

 

[danny la rouge]

Labour's regional list candidates has been leaked (well, STV broke the embargo on the email it had been sent).

Scottish Labour list candidates for Holyrood election leaked

"Big" names jostling for the tops of lists. Clearly not confident of winning their constituency seats...

 

[Sue]

Labour's regional list candidates has been leaked (well, STV broke the embargo on the email it had been sent).

Scottish Labour list candidates for Holyrood election leaked

"Big" names jostling for the tops of lists. Clearly not confident of winning their constituency seats...

Are they still on track to lose all their constituency seats?

 

[danny la rouge]

Are they still on track to lose all their constituency seats?

Yes. Which we may well be taking for granted but it's worth remembering that the electoral system was deliberately designed to deprive the SNP of an outright majority and to force them into coalition. Indeed Labour's administrations were coalitions even at a time that they were thought of as an unstoppable electoral juggernaut.

We might be inured now to the SNP's current majority, but it was in itself remarkable. That a second one - and an even more stomping one - looks on the cards is astonishing.

And Labour is currently tying with the Tories. Yes, that deserved a new paragraph.

 

[danny la rouge]

 

[danny la rouge]

Rise Glasgow are launching their campaign this weekend.

​

RISE Glasgow | Launch event


RISE Glasgow are pleased to invite you to their campaign launch event on Friday 12th February, at 7pm.

Venue: The CCA, 350 Sauchiehall Street

We are encouraging all RISE supporters in Glasgow to attend, and help get the campaign off to a flying start.

• Find out more about RISE - Scotland's Left Alliance
  
• Meet our Glasgow candidates. They range from teachers and youth workers to independence campaigners and community activists
  
• Collect campaign materials
  
• Volunteer for election activity
  
• Hear from special guests.

More details will be announced throughout the week. In the meantime,share the Facebook event by clicking the image below. Please also tell your family, friends and contacts about the event. We look forward to seeing you there.

​

 

[gosub]

Falkirk isn't in Glasgow

 

[danny la rouge]

Falkirk isn't in Glasgow

It will be if everyone votes 2nd vote Rise.

 

[gosub]

Falkirk isn't in Glasgow

It will be if everyone votes 2nd vote Rise.

How to lose votes and scare people

 

[danny la rouge]

How to lose votes and scare people

I don't think enough people know about them to cause mass panic.

 

[gosub]

I don't think enough people know about them to cause mass panic.

Weegies are fairly notorious


That would put them 20 miles from civilization

 

[danny la rouge]

Watch it.

 

[danny la rouge]

Voters in SNP seats 'disappear' from register faster than Tory and Labour areas


"About one in 30 people eligible to vote in SNP constituencies have fallen off the register in the past year.

This compares with roughly one in 78 people in Labour seats and one in 88 in Conservative seats."

 

[danny la rouge]

"Our forecast for #sp16, SNP to win 70 seats. Tories second on 25, Labour third and lose every constituency."

 

[danny la rouge]

That's 70 SNP, 25 Tory, 22 Lab, 6 Green, 4 Lib Dem and 2 UKIP (1 Glasgow list, and 1 Central Scotland list*).



*Glasgow list region: Glasgow (Scottish Parliament electoral region) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Central list region: Central Scotland (Scottish Parliament electoral region) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[danny la rouge]

Euro ref eclipsing the Holyrood election in the media at the moment. Any views on whether that'll have an effect? Turnout maybe?

 

[Sue]

That's 70 SNP, 25 Tory, 22 Lab, 6 Green, 4 Lib Dem and 2 UKIP (1 Glasgow list, and 1 Central Scotland list*).



*Glasgow list region: Glasgow (Scottish Parliament electoral region) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Central list region: Central Scotland (Scottish Parliament electoral region) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Was trying to work out who the orange ones were (was thinking maybe independent) as I'd completely forgotten the Lib Dems even existed...

If Labour come third, does that mean yet another leadership election or will they stick with Dugdale because no-one else would go anywhere near it? (Know she's only been leader for five minutes but...)