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2016 Holyrood Election Thread: polling, coverage, issues.

Considering the Carmichael situation what's the likelihood of the LD scum holding Orkney and Shetland?
I've not seen any constituency specific polls. The result in Westminster last year was very close, so it could be that there's an effect from the fallout of the Carmichael thing. Remember that while Orkney and Shetland is one constituency in Westminster but two for Holyrood (plus the regional list, which is Highlands and Islands).

No latecomers to race for isles' Holyrood seat

Orkney man appeals for second votes as he throws hat into ring as list candidate for region

First Minister due in Orkney on campaign tour
 
no jizz. quite sad to be reduced to this state, actually.

to think I joined the board thirteen years ago as such a rosy-cheeked left-liberal with a firm belief in the parliamentary process.

I have no time whatever for the competing neoliberal "brands" now. Important to show your contempt I suppose, though.
 
I've not seen any constituency specific polls. The result in Westminster last year was very close, so it could be that there's an effect from the fallout of the Carmichael thing. Remember that while Orkney and Shetland is one constituency in Westminster but two for Holyrood (plus the regional list, which is Highlands and Islands).

No latecomers to race for isles' Holyrood seat

Orkney man appeals for second votes as he throws hat into ring as list candidate for region

First Minister due in Orkney on campaign tour
Well I hope they don't let the rest of Scotland down.
 
Increased majority predicted for SNP in voting system specifically designed to stop them getting a majority (and in which Labour never had a majority even when they were "weighing votes instead of counting them"):



"BREAKING @tns_global poll sees SNP increase majority as Lab loses 10 seats. Gains also for Tories, LibDems + Greens"

Note that Tories and LibDems also set to gain, via list votes.
 
Not a pisstake.

No, I know. Was a clumsy attempt at emphasizing my incredulity at the scene :).

In other news, I saw some polling on tweeters suggesting the SNP will be increasing their number of seats, which is impressive if entirely predictable.
 
Well, that was a horrible 5 minutes watching the shouty men.

Weird, though - it can't really be to Sheridan's benefit to join up with Sean Clerkin etc, and it probably isn't to their benefit to join up with him. Then again, for all I know, maybe it IS beneficial to both. All a bit odd.

Is it just a case of anywhere there can be shouting going on, Tommy Sheridan has to be there?
 
Michael Gray‏@GrayInGlasgow
Central Ayrshire MP @Dr_PhilippaW spent her parliamentary recess performing breast cancer operations in Palestine.

CfjXmWbWIAEVdM_.jpg
 
image.jpeg I received this leaflet from the SNP this morning. I think it demonstrates quite well the founding fallacy of (small n) nationalism: that there is unity of interests among all who share a nation.

Everyone benefits "most" from the same policies?

So, the same policies equally serve people with funds in offshore accounts and basic rate tax payers? The same policies equally serve landowners and tenants? The same policies equally serve CEOs and workers? Everyone benefits most from all of those and more?
 
Read it for yourself.

Our record
That's a list of what the SNP believes is its achievements, not an answer to the point I raised.

Since you're presumably responding to my post let me ask you directly: do you think there is a unity of interests between all who share a nation? And taking one specific that I raised, do you think that it is a) possible b) desirable to design a policy which sees both landowners and tenants benefiting the same?
 



According to this analysis, the SNP will win all of the constituencies in 6 out of 8 regions, meaning they pick up no list seats in those 6 regions.
 



According to this analysis, the SNP will win all of the constituencies in 6 out of 8 regions, meaning they pick up no list seats in those 6 regions.


That would be :
SNP : 71 (+2)
Labour : 25 (-12)
Conservatives :20 (+5)
Greens :10 (+8)
Lib Dems : 3 (-2)

worth pointing out those projections come from a Scottish Greens candidate. And the yougov its based on had Labour up 2 points so I'd guess it was sampled before PFIgate started
 
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That's a list of what the SNP believes is its achievements, not an answer to the point I raised.

Since you're presumably responding to my post let me ask you directly: do you think there is a unity of interests between all who share a nation? And taking one specific that I raised, do you think that it is a) possible b) desirable to design a policy which sees both landowners and tenants benefiting the same?
I thought this was a thread about what was actually happening?

You posted something which implied that policies can't be good for everyone...I posted what the SNP have actually done. Your premise is silly...of course one policy can't benefit everyone.

I posted a hundred examples of policies enacted.

What did you think of my response? I think what they've done...especially in the current climate...is very impressive. Don't you? Do you have something better? Actually offer for real?

No-one has come up with a non-fantasy alternative.

That's why most people in Scotland are and have been voting for them. That's why independence is inevitable. What we want up here is different from what they have down there and across the seas to both sides. Are you for or against that? Or are you falling back on your 'just interested' reply? Because it's not really what's happening, is it?
 
God, you're defensive.

I thought this was a thread about what was actually happening?

Well, when I posted the thread my idea was that things that came up in the course of the campaign would be discussed. This leaflet was really actually posted through my letterbox. I thought I'd discuss the wording, and the apparent thinking behind that wording.

Your premise is silly...of course one policy can't benefit everyone.
It's not my premise: it's the premise of the leaflet. "Who benefits most from our policies? Everybody". Whether you take that as a whole, or by looking at particular policies, I don't agree with the thinking: there is not a unity of interests between rich and poor. I believe that it's neither possible nor desirable to design either an overall programme or a single policy that reflects that basic premise.

Let's take land reform, the issue I singled out as an example. I think that in trying the appease landowners, the SNP government produced a bill that was timid and toothless. Which is my point: it demonstrates that there is no unity of interests between rich and poor. And actually SNP conference agreed with that analysis. (And yes, Aileen McLeod, the SNP Environment Minister in the last parliament, later tabled a number of amendments to try to bring the Bill a bit closer to the policy that party conference would like to see, but the result is still a missed opportunity on the whole. And of course landowners are howling with indignation about even the most tiny changes, but they would, wouldn't they?). Which brings me to the wider question you raise: you want my assessment of the SNP.

You posted the link that is on the leaflet (I'd already read it, but thank you, it's a useful addition to the thread). What do I think of the list as a whole? - Overall it's a moderately centre-left programme, containing some useful measures, but also some I disagree with. For example the Council Tax freeze. That's had a very detrimental effect on local authority services. (And, yes, local government in general and local authorities themselves need wholesale reform, but a council tax freeze doesn't deliver that. Left to the bureauracies themselves to prioritise, what happens when income is frozen is that the top jobs are protected, and the frontline services are cut. And people providing those frontline services end up with poorer terms and conditions and with reduncancies. And yes, local taxation needs reform to something more progressive, but again a tax freeze doesn't equal progressive taxtion). The council tax freeze is not a progressive measure, it's austerity.

Yes, I accept that the SNP government is restricted in what it can do by the constraints of devolution. But then they have also refused to use some of the newer powers. On taxation, for example, the SNP government has been completely unconvincing. The arguments put forward by John Swinney and re-iterated by Nicola Sturgeon on why they don't want to use the top rate or tax are effectively neoliberal arguments. Very disappointing.

And that points up the inherent antisyzygy of the party-in-power. The SNP of conference policy and debate is considerably to the left of the SNP government in practise. The SNP of rhetoric and public presentation is also considerably to the left of what is actually delivered. You ask what I'd prefer? Well, something matching the rhetoric; something more akin to what is expressed in conference. That'd be a start.
 
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