Why the lib-dems are shit

[William of Walworth]

I get the feeling their 'war chest' for the next election won't amount to very much - who the fuck is going to fund them?
I wonder how many candidates they are going to be able to field.
They'll be severely lacking in foot soldiers as well.

Death Spiral.

Back to the ancient days of two-party contests in one or two seats, possibly?

 

[co-op]

Back to the ancient days of two-party contests in one or two seats, possibly?

Even where there are LD candidates, and even in areas where they are historically very strong they are in deep shit.

Consider Devon and Cornwall, home to five Lib Dem MPs with small majorities. In all five seats the Conservatives were in second place in the 2010 election. In that election, 31% of all Devon and Cornwall votes went to Conservative candidates and 26% to Liberal Democrat candidates. In the 2012 PCC election, 28% of first preference votes went to the Conservative candidate (who with second preferences won with 65%) and 12% to the Liberal Democrat candidate. Even if the relative collapse of Lib Dem support at the 2015 election is much smaller than this, it is hard to see how the party’s MPs in the region will keep their seats.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/blighty/2012/11/lots-elections

 

[Kippa]

At a local level our Lib Dem core grass roots members numbers have more or less stayed the same. Even if we loose a lot of seats (which we will), there is still a core membership that will exist after the general election.

 

[co-op]

At a local level our Lib Dem core grass roots members numbers have more or less stayed the same. Even if we loose a lot of seats (which we will), there is still a core membership that will exist after the general election.

O rly? When Lib Dem membership levels nationally 2010-2011 have plummeted 25% to their lowest in over 40 years?

 

[Kippa]

I am talking about local membership numbers, people that I see all the time. I can't speak for other areas.

 

[co-op]

I am talking about local membership numbers, people that I see all the time. I can't speak for other areas.

OK then your area is an exception - do you mind sharing where it is?

 

[Kaka Tim]

OK then your area is an exception - do you mind sharing where it is?

The borough of la la land. where most liberal democrats live these days.

 

[JimW]

The borough of la la land. where most liberal democrats live these days.

Ooh yeah, that's just up the end of Shit Creek, isn't it?

 

[co-op]

The borough of la la land. where most liberal democrats live these days.

I think the Borough of La La is now a unified authority with the relevant parts of the County Council of Denialshire.

But even so, 25% of their membership quit in the 12 months to Dec 2011, so some of them can read the writing on the wall.

I wouldn't be surprised if they lose over half their members 2010-2015. This would be bad news for anyone but especially for the LDs if they are really starting to try and design their 2015 GE strategy around the "75 bye-elections" idea that they've been discussing recently; that needs boots on the ground, and plenty of them.

 

[Louis MacNeice]

I think the Borough of La La is now a unified authority with the relevant parts of the County Council of Denialshire.

But even so, 25% of their membership quit in the 12 months to Dec 2011, so some of them can read the writing on the wall.

I wouldn't be surprised if they lose over half their members 2010-2015. This would be bad news for anyone but especially for the LDs if they are really starting to try and design their 2015 GE strategy around the "75 bye-elections" idea that they've been discussing recently; that needs boots on the ground, and plenty of them.

Surely good bye and good riddance elections.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

 

[co-op]

Surely good bye and good riddance elections.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

A bye-bye-election?

 

[redsquirrel]

Anyone want to predict how many deposits they'll lose today?

 

[killer b]

How many ya got?

 

[redsquirrel]

Results at 2010 general election


General Election 2010: Croydon North
Party Candidate Votes% ±%
Labour Malcolm Wicks 28,947 56.0 +2.4
Conservative Jason Hadden 12,466 24.1 +1.9
Liberal Democrat Gerry Jerome 7,226 14.0 −3.2
Green Shasha Khan 1,017 2.0 −0.9
UKIPJonathan Serter 891 1.7 −0.0
Christian Novlette Williams 586 1.1 N/A
Respect Mohommad Shaikh 272 0.5 N/A
Communist Ben Stevenson 160 0.3 N/A
Independent Mohamed Seyed 111 0.2 N/A
Majority 16,481 31.9 +0.5
Turnout 51,676 60.6 +8.0
Labour hold Swing +0.3


General Election 2010: Middlesbrough
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Labour Sir Stuart Bell 15,351 45.9 -11.7
Liberal Democrat Chris Foote-Wood 6,662 19.9 +1.2
Conservative John Walsh 6,283 18.8 +2.3
Independent Joan McTigue 1,969 5.9 +5.9
BNP Michael Ferguson 1,954 5.8 +3.3
UKIP Robert Parker 1,236 3.7 +1.3
Majority 8,689 26.0
Turnout 33,455 51.4 +2.7
Labour hold Swing -6.4

General Election 2010: Rotherham
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Labour Denis MacShane 16,741 44.6 −13.1
Conservative Jackie Whiteley 6,279 16.7 +3.4
Liberal Democrat Rebecca Taylor 5,994 16.0 −0.4
BNP Marlene Guest 3,906 10.4 +4.5
Independent Peter Thirlwall 2,366 6.3 +6.3
UKIP Caven Vines 2,220 5.9 +2.0
Majority 10,462 27.9
Turnout 37,506 59.0 +4.9
Labour hold Swing −8.3

 

[chilango]

I'd like to see 4th place or lower in at least 2 out of 3 of the by-elections and lost deposits in 2 out of 3. I'd call that a successful outcome for us.

 

[killer b]

definitely in Croydon. I'll be generous with the other two and say they might just scrape in.

 

[redsquirrel]

I reckon they'll lose their deposits in both Croyden and Rotherham, I don't know if they'll manage a third place in any.

 

[two sheds]

One other point is I think the likely morale of the Lib Dem campaigners phoning up punters to get them to vote at the election. I had two phone calls before the last election, and I for one will be rehearsing my tirade several weeks in advance (I'm tempted to do a script to read out to them after they've gone through their own, ending off with 'and don't you EVER fucking contact me again').

 

[belboid]

I reckon they'll lose their deposits in both Croyden and Rotherham, I don't know if they'll manage a third place in any.

They wont. Lost deposits in all three (may just scrape home in Middlesbro), and down in 6th in Rotherham

 

[chilango]

I'd like to see 4th place or lower in at least 2 out of 3 of the by-elections and lost deposits in 2 out of 3. I'd call that a successful outcome for us.

A successful night. Better than I'd hoped.

 

[redsquirrel]

Two lost deposits, one third place, one fourth and one eighth

 

[belboid]

Less than 200 ahead of the TUSC candidae as well, magnificently dire

 

[butchersapron]

Being forced to retreat into a regional party - and within that region only the more affluent bits.

 

[DrRingDing]

I reckon they'll lose their deposits in both Croyden and Rotherham, I don't know if they'll manage a third place in any.

Again polling under 5%, the Liberal Democrats lost their second deposit of the night.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20541136

You've earned a cigar ;-)

 

[two sheds]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/nov/30/nigel-farage-ukip-third-party

Nigel Farage: Ukip is now Britain's third party

The leader of Ukip, Nigel Farage, has claimed that his party has now displaced the Liberal Democrats as the "third force" in British politics after it performed strongly in three byelections.

At least will annoy some of the right people

 

[redsquirrel]

Danny 'Cunt' Alexander defending companies who don't pay any tax

 

[yield]

^ link?

 

[frogwoman]

Just had a day of the most tedious work in my life courtesy of the lib-dems objecting to the content of a free newspaper written by a council (a letter from a labour councillor who led the council who said things that they didn't like). It was a days work (and good money too) so I'm not complaining but having to take two covers of the same newspaper which looked exactly the same, folded into each other and take them out and place them on top of each other, repeat 27000 times, really??

 

[two sheds]

That'll go down under 'Work creation' in government statistics.

 

[frogwoman]

http://www.oxfordlibdems.org.uk/students-oxford-university-liberal-democrats