Who will win the 2024 US election?

[brogdale]

The stars are coming right for 2025

and when he comes to have tea with Charles he'll have visited Clacton first.

 

[ID47]

My Esperanto is well rusty these days. I did know several first language Esperanto speakers, mind. Also, I believe George Soros grew up with Esperanto as his first language. Join the dots!!!

First language Esperanto speakers? Where are they, in some kind of a cult?

 

[Pickman's model]

First language Esperanto speakers? Where are they, in some kind of a cult?

Think about it...

 

[The39thStep]

Dr Soros was very good to me.

What is the worst that can happen?

 

[ID47]

Think about it...

I'm trying to!

Edit: Native Esperanto speakers - Wikipedia 350 families in the world. Interesting the bit about using a bridge language, we did that in my own family with Italian as the bridge language.

 

[chandlerp]

I need to drown my sorrows, just checked when my local micro-pub opens, expecting it to be 11am, but it's 9am, way too early, but I am actually considering it.

Can't drink all day if you don't start in the morning

 

[danny la rouge]

View attachment 449935

The first sentence is bizarre.

 

[Serge Forward]

I'm trying to!

Okay, let me explain. Two people from different countries meet at some international Esperanto event who have no knowledge of each other's first language. They get married, have babies, etc. Guess which language is spoken at home...

Edit: I see you got there in the end

 

[Artaxerxes]

I thought Kamala could do it - clearly she couldn't , actually woke up at 3am and watched some of the results - BBC was awful, so switched to C4 and that was more palatable . Trump can only do one term though - his age (82 in 2028?) and the constitution stops him, he'd have to get a constitutional amendment overturned and a new one agreed - and I don't think he has the states to do that.

Trump is basically allowed to do what he wants, the courts and media agree on this

 

[ID47]

Okay, let me explain. Two people from different countries meet at some international Esperanto event who have no knowledge of each other's first language. They get married, have babies, etc. Guess which language is spoken at home...

Thanks, I edited, as I wrote we did the same but with Italian.

 

[philosophical]

Don't be silly

Maybe I am being silly, but I believe nationalism is about circling the wagons and saying you are one of us, and you others are not one of us, and we can reject and hate ‘the other’ if circumstances demand.
Isn’t an attitude like that the roots of racism?
My brother lives in Ballycasey, I hold an Irish passport, and I am aware of the anti foreigner sentiment that exists in parts of the Republic of Ireland. Maybe I am the only person that sees the problems with that kind of cultural attitude.
Centuries of British oppression is not an excuse or cover or justification for dangerous nationalism.
The victory of the vote to leave in the UK was an expression of nationalism, which as far as I can see was the majority shitting the bed for everybody to wallow in.
Like what good has that expression of nationalism done? It certainly hasn’t unified the geography of the island of Ireland into one entity.

 

[Rompipalle]

The first sentence is bizarre.

Well, the precise choice of words is not mine. It’s the overall sentiment and response to the sheer stupidity of people who appear to be wilfully blind and amoral.

Who in their right mind would want a self-serving, lying rapist who cannot even string a coherent sentence togather to lead their country?

 

[theCIA]

 

[tommers]

Well, the precise choice of words is not mine. It’s the overall sentiment and response to the sheer stupidity of people who appear to be wilfully blind and amoral.

Who in their right mind would want a self-serving, lying rapist who cannot even string a coherent sentence togather to lead their country?

People who see toothpaste costing $8.50.

 

[planetgeli]

There is some very bad predicting on this thread. Probably the worst predicting anyone has ever seen.

I may have been lampooning Trump style wise but I wasn't joking.

Welcome back to Earth.

 

[quimcunx]

Well, the precise choice of words is not mine. It’s the overall sentiment and response to the sheer stupidity of people who appear to be wilfully blind and amoral.

Who in their right mind would want a self-serving, lying rapist who cannot even string a coherent sentence togather to lead their country?

Straight white men apparently. No one seems to be surprised at that or blaming them.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

People who see toothpaste costing $8.50.

Quite. The fact that the liberal elite still seems blithely unaware that their 'economic recovery' doesnt mean shit if you work all week and still can't afford to buy basic essentials should be the final nail in their coffin.

 

[Rompipalle]

People who see toothpaste costing $8.50.

Do you really imagine that Trump will reduce the cost of toothpaste?

That sack of corrupt, useless shite doesn’t give a toss about the cost of anything.

He is only interested in power and money - and only for anyone named Trump. Everyone else can go f*uck themselves, now they’ve done what he needed them to do.

 

[Idris2002]

The stars are coming right for 2025

"Who has disturbed my rest of 80 years?"

What is the worst that can happen?

You're thinking of Dr. Pepper.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

the sheer stupidity of people who appear to be wilfully blind and amoral.

Who in their right mind would want a self-serving, lying rapist who cannot even string a coherent sentence togather to lead their country?

Seriously? Have you heard yourself? Have the day off.

 

[The39thStep]

Daniel Oliveira's contribution ( in the Portuguese paper Expresso) to the post mortem makes some interesting points.

The Economy won over democracy

On one side, there was democracy, on the other, the economy. Inflation did the same to the US government as it did to others. And the poorest, most punished by inflation, are blacks and Latinos. Some fled to Trump. This time, there is no great exercise to be done to explain Trump's victory. It was the economy, stupid! If Trump wins, the Americans will once again put an authoritarian, now more dangerous, in power for the most common reason known to politics: their pockets did not like the last four years.


According to CNN's exit poll, more than half of Donald Trump's voters did not trust the election results even before the vote. More than 70% of voters were worried about violence after the election. Voting was still underway and Trump was already talking, preemptively, about fraud in Philadelphia. If he lost, we would be in trouble.
The democratic issue is therefore not a scarecrow raised by the Democratic Party. And a vote for Kamala was little more than a vote against Trump . She was the one who came out on the ballot to run against him. She did not win the primaries and, apart from being the first female President, she did not mobilize for positive reasons.

If, on one side, there was democracy, on the other was the economy. According to the same CNN poll, 7% are enthusiastic about the path the country is taking, 19% are satisfied, 43% are dissatisfied and 29% are angry. In other words, 72% are not happy. 58% disapprove of Joe Biden's term in office .
It would only be possible to overcome this if the defense of democracy overcame the daily lives of most people, something that rarely happens. According to the same polls, 35% valued democracy, 31% the economy, 14% abortion, (only) 11% immigration and 4% foreign policy. This was where the hope lay.
Biden's economic results weren't bad. But the ones that were most affected by inflation were the usual ones. The same thing happened to the US government as to the governments of almost all democracies. The relationship between inflation, which wages didn't keep up with, and the increase in house prices with the vote is obvious in any analysis of the electoral map. And it was predictable.

In this scenario, Trump did not stop at the presidency, where, by stealing Democratic voters and strengthening the Republican base, he achieved an unusual right-wing victory in the popular vote. He secured control of the Senate and, at the time of writing, the Democrats are retreating in the House of Representatives.

When the time came to count the votes, the Democrats discovered what was always going to happen. By transforming the party into an alliance of minorities and abandoning the representation of workers, they prepared the moment when the identity of minorities would succumb to the belonging of these minorities to the social majority of workers. In reality, the poorest, most affected by inflation, are blacks and Latinos. Some of them fled to Trump .

When the Democrats gave up on the “deplorables,” as Hillary Clinton called them, they abandoned the white working-class electorate. When inflation punished everyone, Hispanics and blacks were not grateful for an identity-based representation that ignores economic and social issues . This was partly offset by the female vote , which, throughout the West, has resisted the misogynistic and toxic aggression of right-wing populism. And with a female candidate and a new centrality of abortion in the political debate, it made a difference. But it was not enough.

This time, there is no great effort to explain Trump’s victory. It was the “economy, stupid!” Just as Trump lost in 2020 because of the pandemic. As has happened to so many governments.

 

[Serge Forward]

Do you really imagine that Trump will reduce the cost of toothpaste?

There'll be very fine toothpaste at $1.50. It'll be beautiful, etc...

 

[Rompipalle]

Quite. The fact that the liberal elite still seems blithely unaware that their 'eonomic recovery' doesnt mean shit if you work all week and still can't afford to buy basic essentials should be the final nail in their coffin.

The USA is hardly unique in that regard. There are vast swathes of people in the UK and other countries who are in the same position.

Electing Trump - a rich useless turd - is not going to change anything for them. In four years time, they will be no better off and will wonder why they even bothered.

 

[planetgeli]

Quite. The fact that the liberal elite still seems blithely unaware that their 'economic recovery' doesnt mean shit if you work all week and still can't afford to buy basic essentials should be the final nail in their coffin.

And this is it. "It's the economy, stupid". The economy was way at the top of every list I saw deciding how people voted. Many, many people will have voted against the incumbents, those responsible, rather than voting specifically for Trump (though enough obviously did that too).

Oh and I see Daniel Oliveira agrees with me, Thanks The39thStep

 

[Rompipalle]

Seriously? Have you heard yourself? Have the day off.

I don’t need the day off. He is a convicted felon who should already be in jail, where he belongs.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

The USA is hardly unique in that regard. There are vast swathes of people in the UK and other countries who are in the same position.

That is correct. And that is why large parts of Europe are electing right populists. it explains why Reform are polling 20% here.

People aren't stupid. They know they are poor and getting poorer. They know the parties that they have voted for their whole lives offer no answers.

 

[steveo87]

I mean, it's a shot moment to find I was right...

 

[Rompipalle]

That is correct. And that is why large parts of Europe are electing right populists. it explains why Reform are polling 20% here.

People aren't stupid. They know they are poor and getting poorer. They know the parties that they have voted for their whole lives offer no answers.

Trump, Farage et al have precisely zero interest in the people who elected them.

You only need to ask the people of Clacton… their MP spends more time sucking Trump’s flabby old sphincter than he does in his own constituency.

 

[Rimbaud]

What with?

If Putin takes Ukraine and probably a chunk of Moldova, and has Chinese economic backing and a friendly US going out of their way to cause divisions in Europe by backing far right parties and giving money and political backing to the likes of Orban's Hungary, it won't take him long to gather up a force to conquer a country like Latvia with 1/25th of Ukraine's population and not far off 1/10th the size.

 

[Yossarian]

There'll be very fine toothpaste at $1.50. It'll be beautiful, etc...

We're going to cut taxes on billionaires, impose tariffs of 500% on imports, kill off any chance of reviving the expanded child tax credit, and put the world's richest man in charge of abolishing all kinds of government oversight of corporations, and toothpaste will still become cheaper, it's called squeeze-down economics