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USA 2024 Election Stats

ska invita

ska invita

back on the other side
I havent got any to share but would like to see them as they become available, and I cant keep up with other threads.

I heard one commentator I like saying it was the white male democrat vote that collapsed the most and has swung it - they didnt switch to trump but they didn't come out to vote - he said he had the stats infront of him but the source wasn't shared.

If people have stats to share please do
 
The one that actually matters:

1730977127635.png
The noteworthy thing this time round is it's the first time Trump has built his majority entirely on middle-income earners. In 2016 and 2020 his support base skewed rich. It really was the economy that won it for him.

1730979427084.png
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At the moment, with three results to declare, Trump has got about a million fewer votes than he got overall in 2020. He'll likely end up with a similar overall total than then.
In contrast, Harris has received 14 million fewer votes than Biden got in total in 2020.

I can't currently find that much, but it looks like Trump regained his 2016 vote from white men - they had moved more Dem in 2020.
 
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Apparently the overall, USA-wide turnout was something like 15million down on 2020, so if Trump's popular vote has roughly remained the same, this suggests a huge amount of Dems didn't vote this time - why? Because they couldn't bring themselves to vote for a female president? Or because in 2020 there'd been an urgent campaign to prevent Trump winning a second term, to get people who often don't bother into the voting booths? The overall turnout for 2020 was an unusually high percentage compared with previous ones.
 
scalyboy said:
Apparently the overall, USA-wide turnout was something like 15million down on 2020, so if Trump's popular vote has roughly remained the same, this suggests a huge amount of Dems didn't vote this time - why? Because they couldn't bring themselves to vote for a female president? Or because in 2020 there'd been an urgent campaign to prevent Trump winning a second term, to get people who often don't bother into the voting booths? The overall turnout for 2020 was an unusually high percentage compared with previous ones.
Click to expand...
I think part of it was Harris making it an election about principle and not distancing herself from Biden. She should have picked a vp candidate from a state with more electoral college votes too
 
One of the few bright spots in the election was the vote in favour of abortion rights in most states where it was on the ballot, despite the efforts of opponents to confuse the issue with anti-trans hate campaigns. Not sure why some Nebraskans appear to have voted in favour of both the anti-abortion rights and pro-abortion rights measures


chrome-capture-2024-11-7.png
 
According to this immediate YG fieldwork, 1 in 5 of us in the UK are (to some degree) happy with the Trump victory:

 
Some context; Nov 5th (red dot) as just one of many elections in this year in which every incumbent party, thus far, has lost share of the popular vote.

1730988322567.png
 
brogdale said:
According to this immediate YG fieldwork, 1 in 5 of us in the UK are (to some degree) happy with the Trump victory:

Click to expand...

reform got 20% of the vote in the last election so dumb racist trash are not just an american problem :thumbs:
 
scalyboy said:
Apparently the overall, USA-wide turnout was something like 15million down on 2020, so if Trump's popular vote has roughly remained the same, this suggests a huge amount of Dems didn't vote this time - why? Because they couldn't bring themselves to vote for a female president? Or because in 2020 there'd been an urgent campaign to prevent Trump winning a second term, to get people who often don't bother into the voting booths? The overall turnout for 2020 was an unusually high percentage compared with previous ones.
Click to expand...
Yeah, the 2020 turnout was very high, obviously we can't know what led to people staying at home this time round but I wonder whether the Harris campaign's absolute refusal to throw any crumbs to people upset about Gaza was one factor depressing their turnout this time round. (I mean, within my particular social media echo chamber it was definitely a big issue, but then my social media echo chamber is definitely not reflective of the wider electorate!)
brogdale said:
Some context; Nov 5th (red dot) as just one of many elections in this year in which every incumbent party, thus far, has lost share of the popular vote.

View attachment 450072
Click to expand...
Yep, the Crimethinc analysis talks about that:
crimethinc.com

History Repeats Itself: First as Farce, Then as Tragedy

In many ways, the Democrats are responsible for Donald Trump’s return to power. Let's explore why.
crimethinc.com crimethinc.com
We have long argued that in the 21st century, state power is a hot potato. Because neoliberal globalization has made it difficult for state structures to mitigate the impact of capitalism on ordinary people, no party is able to hold state power for long without losing credibility. Indeed, over the past few months, upset defeats have undermined ruling parties in France, Austria, the United Kingdom, and Japan.

In the 2024 election, both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump were already tarnished by their relationship with state power, but Harris was the one associated with the reigning administration. This is one of the reasons she lost. Tens of millions of Trump voters support his program, yes, but the voters who pushed him over the edge into victory were essentially casting protest votes.

The Democrats have done everything they could to associate themselves with the ruling order: moving their politics to the right, shifting support away from supposed “leftists” within their ranks, demobilizing protest movements. It turns out that this was a losing wager at a time when people are hungry for change.
Click to expand...
I don't think that the word "upset" holds up there, but I reckon most of the rest of it is pretty solid.
 
brogdale said:
Don't know if I'm being a bit dim here...but what happened to those vote shares when Biden beat Trump in 2020?
Click to expand...

Not sure, the other major exit poll that year had different results

The National Exit Poll reported that 64 percent of LGBT voters favored Biden and 27 percent supported Trump. If that’s true, Trump received the highest percentage of LGBT support any Republican presidential candidate has ever received — and LGBT support for Trump doubled since 2016. However, AP VoteCast found that 73 percent of LGBT voters supported Biden and 25 percent Trump, more in line with years past.
 
oh the democrats are crap but we have some really fascist on the trump side who knew what they were doing and quite a few more just went along for cheap gas these guys are wankers
 
hitmouse said:
Yeah, the 2020 turnout was very high, obviously we can't know what led to people staying at home this time round but I wonder whether the Harris campaign's absolute refusal to throw any crumbs to people upset about Gaza was one factor depressing their turnout this time round. (I mean, within my particular social media echo chamber it was definitely a big issue, but then my social media echo chamber is definitely not reflective of the wider electorate!)

Yep, the Crimethinc analysis talks about that:
crimethinc.com

History Repeats Itself: First as Farce, Then as Tragedy

In many ways, the Democrats are responsible for Donald Trump’s return to power. Let's explore why.
crimethinc.com crimethinc.com

I don't think that the word "upset" holds up there, but I reckon most of the rest of it is pretty solid.
Click to expand...
I think that's an optimistic take.

A more pessimistic interpretation (of the same phenomena) is that fascism is the most attractive option on offer for a significant number of people.
 
scalyboy said:
Apparently the overall, USA-wide turnout was something like 15million down on 2020, so if Trump's popular vote has roughly remained the same, this suggests a huge amount of Dems didn't vote this time - why? Because they couldn't bring themselves to vote for a female president? Or because in 2020 there'd been an urgent campaign to prevent Trump winning a second term, to get people who often don't bother into the voting booths? The overall turnout for 2020 was an unusually high percentage compared with previous ones.
Click to expand...
This 15 million reduction apparently isn't true. Not all votes have been counted yet. California have only counted 55% of the votes so there is about 8 million votes there not included in the current totals.
 
chilango said:
A more pessimistic interpretation (of the same phenomena) is that fascism is the most attractive option on offer for a significant number of people.
Click to expand...
Yes this cant be ruled out completely - theres a tendency for marxist left to always reduce everything to purely material conditions - its always so much more complex than that and the right and far right know this better than most. Of course materialist view is essential - I'm not dismissing it - it is central - but...

I'd also add that I expect the majority of people in the USA and also Europe (currently voting in far right politicians on a scale) don't see it as fascistic at all, and just see it as shared values <this is a real problem - I don't think people are aware of the danger
 
chilango said:
I think that's an optimistic take.

A more pessimistic interpretation (of the same phenomena) is that fascism is the most attractive option on offer for a significant number of people.
Click to expand...
Yeah, freely admit I'm trying to look on the bright side here because if you look on the less-bright side then, jesus, what is there to say. I was going to confidently say that still, the important thing is the collapse in the Dem vote, not any increase in Trump's, but then saw the post above pointing out that they've not finished counting the votes yet, so now I don't know what to think other than that the yanks should get around to counting their votes faster, or else we should get out of the habit of trying to draw conclusions about their elections.
But still, according to wikipedia, the current Trump vote total is 72,837,242 this time round compared to 74,223,975 last time round. Still bonkers that it even reaches double figures, and we'll see how that changes by the time they count all the votes, but still, that doesn't point to Trump's message really reaching more people than it did previously.
I suppose a relatively neutral way of saying it is that the not-all-powerful-but-certainly-larger-than-we'd-like fascist-leaning portion of the electorate were feeling enthused about their candidate, and the certainly-capable-of-winning-elections-under-the-right-circumstances left/liberal side of the electorate really did not seem enthusiastic?
PTK said:
I do not understand that chart. Percentage point difference between what and what?
Click to expand...
It is a bit baffling, but I think it's between percentage voting Rep and Dem of that cohort - so if it was 50/50 then the number in the bubble would be 0, if there was a 60/40 split then the number would be 20, and so on.
 
PTK said:
Well, the Electoral College meets in December, to decide who won, and their decision is certified in January. So, I as far as I know, the Presidential Election in the USA has not been officially "called".
Click to expand...
www.theguardian.com

‘It is a little analog’: how the Associated Press calls election winners in the US

AP’s David Scott talks about how the newsroom predicts who won, the ‘red mirage’ and one county’s whiteboard
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

'As far as you know' isn't very far, is it.
 
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