US election 2020 thread

[two sheds]

Bristol!

That's what I thought

 

[JTG]

That's what I thought

Not the one in Connecticut either

 

[JTG]

Look I know he's Another Centrist Politician and I have no time for him beyond Nov 3rd but he is very well turned out and well presented isn't he?

 

[frogwoman]

Do you think there's any truth to those dementia rumours? I wouldn't necessarily pay them any credence and didn't really listen when people said the same about trump but some people I know seem to think there was truth to it.

 

[JTG]

Do you think there's any truth to those dementia rumours? I wouldn't necessarily pay them any credence and didn't really listen when people said the same about trump but some people I know seem to think there was truth to it.

Haven't the foggiest and tend to think long distance diagnosis of anybody is a bit off so I don't spend much time thinking about it

 

[redsquirrel]

I dont know either, and i probably am a bit bitter still but trumpism isn't a normal political movement, i mean who are these people what motivates them, its not his policies i don't think or that they admire the man its something weirder.

What is a "normal" political movement?
People being attracted to political groups/parties based on style, on what they think the political group represents rather than its detailed policies is hardly abnormal.

 

[bimble]

Yeah thats true redsquirrel, the bully thing is just me attempting to make sense of trump's personal appeal now after 4 years in a way that i can sort of understand, helps me to not just hate them all, including the members of my own family that are voting for him again.

 

[Cloo]

Tbh I'm struggling to resist Godwin's law here. Any excuse people had for being taken in by Trump last time - pissed off, disaffected, alienated, whatever - doesn't apply this time. If he loses this time but still gets 60 million votes, that's still pretty depressing. How are they different from the millions of Germans who loved Hitler?

At the end of the day, one has to remember a lot of people vote Republican because they always vote Republican - an awful lot of his support is the middle class who do just this, even if they have to hold their noses.

 

[planetgeli]

Trumps appeal?

Rich.
Successful.
Racist.

The American Dream with added racism.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Haven't the foggiest and tend to think long distance diagnosis of anybody is a bit off so I don't spend much time thinking about it

Yes, good advice. Probably applicable to those who attempt to characterise the 63 million Trump voters in psychological terms or personality traits too.

This thread is fascinating - and not in respect of predicting the results of the election.

 

[gentlegreen]

Trumps appeal?

Rich.
Successful.

whatever that actually means in his case ...

 

[JTG]

Travis County (Austin) on the verge of exceeding the 2016 total. Travis went for Beto O'Rourke by 50 points two years ago, has been having a population explosion and apparently 97% of eligible voters are registered there, which is a stunning achievement

 

[JTG]

One (completely unsubstantiated yet) theory about Texas is that as it's long been a low turnout state, it may have been harbouring sleeping Democrats who never bothered because they weren't going to win. Now the suburbs are on fire, Beto has woken them up and an influx of young working age people from Blue states has added impetus. It's more fun to vote when you think you may win.

But we shall see

 

[JTG]

Just a quick visualisation of what's occurring in the TX suburbs and the direction of travel in recent years:

 

[gentlegreen]

At the end of the day, one has to remember a lot of people vote Republican because they always vote Republican - an awful lot of his support is the middle class who do just this, even if they have to hold their noses.

I was amazed to see how public people's affiliations are in the USA and come complete with address.
I see my uncle who was Republican in Baton Rouge is still the same retired in Florida ... though I suppose he may at least have used his primary vote to vote against Trump .. but my whole family is massively embarrassing ... university professor too (albeit associate, and in forestry and not much contribution to research since his PhD)
He appears to have stripped down his Facebook profile. I like to think he's seen mine ...

Good turnout for a bunch of retirees..

Lee County voting - Google Search

 

[moochedit]

One (completely unsubstantiated yet) theory about Texas is that as it's long been a low turnout state, it may have been harbouring sleeping Democrats who never bothered because they weren't going to win. Now the suburbs are on fire, Beto has woken them up and an influx of young working age people from Blue states has added impetus. It's more fun to vote when you think you may win.

But we shall see

True but it is also possible there were some republican supporters that didn't vote in Texas as they assumed their side would win easily in previous elections. We'll know next week anyway.

 

[JTG]

So Trump held a rally in Omaha - which in itself shows where his campaign is at that he's worried the single EC vote in the district will cost him the election - and someone didn't pay the bus company to give them a ride home. Result is emergency services attending hundreds of freezing seniors stranded miles from their vehicles.

Apparently polls suggest he's not competitive in the district any more and he'll be even less so now he's intent on killing his remaining supporters

 

[JTG]

True but it is also possible there were some republican supporters that didn't vote in Texas as they assumed their side would win easily in previous elections. We'll know next week anyway.

Of course. But the leftward swing of the state over the last 20 years is undeniable

 

[littlebabyjesus]

At the end of the day, one has to remember a lot of people vote Republican because they always vote Republican - an awful lot of his support is the middle class who do just this, even if they have to hold their noses.

Yes, true, and a point of difference. Given that the other choice is a r/w candidate as well, though, why do that? Given what Trump has actually done, the only rational (non-racist) reason is that they must like the way he's rolled back climate change action. There is also the evangelical hardcore who will vote for anybody who promises to get tough on abortion. They're happy with Trump because of his choice of judges. I struggle to find the words to express my contempt for that particular group, tbh.

 

[two sheds]

Yep I saw a piece the other day about Trump backed organizations supporting anti-abortion push in Europe, and

US signs anti-abortion declaration with group of largely authoritarian governments

Move is part of a campaign by Trump administration to reorient US foreign policy in a more socially conservative direction

www.theguardian.com

 

[skyscraper101]

Anyone got any Tuesday night plans then? Stay up through the night to watch CNN or something?

I'm not usually minded to stay awake for US elections but I do want to catch the action. I seem to recall things start to be clear by early morning UK time? I usually wake by 5am so may just sleep with the telly on from 3am or something.

 

[killer b]

I found this analysis of electoral change between 2016 & the 2018 mid-terms an interesting addition to the 'why do people vote for trump' debate - their data and analysis seems to support my feelings that he was a drag on the Repub vote rather than a positive. Check it out: Explaining Electoral Change in the 2018 US Midterm Elections: The Three Components of Electoral Mandates

 

[JTG]

Anyone got any Tuesday night plans then? Stay up through the night to watch CNN or something?

I'm not usually minded to stay awake for US elections but I do want to catch the action. I seem to recall things start to be clear by early morning UK time? I usually wake by 5am so may just sleep with the telly on from 3am or something.

Afternoon/early evening nap, plan on being wide awake for the close of polls in the east. Not sure how I'll be following it but twitter probably a must

 

[gentlegreen]

I see William Hill are offering 50/1 on Trump winning - I take it that's a good sign ?

 

[killer b]

I see William Hill are offering 50/1 on Trump winning - I take it that's a good sign ?

they aren't really offering 50/1 on Trump winning - it's an 'introductory offer' to lure in marks. Their actual odds are 13/8

 

[JimW]

I know next to nothing about betting but you don't get those odds in a two horse race outside of the promos killer b mentions, do you?

 

[JTG]

Betting odds are a reflection of what people who bet think. Given that people who bet tend to lose a lot of money on their poor judgment, I don't pay much heed to betting odds

 

[strung out]

Betting odds are a reflection of what people who bet think. Given that people who bet tend to lose a lot of money on their poor judgment, I don't pay much heed to betting odds

Exactly - apparently there has been more money bet on Trump to win than Biden, which tells you everything you need to know about your typical gambler.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Exactly - apparently there has been more money bet on Trump to win than Biden, which tells you everything you need to know about your typical gambler.

Kind of. Gambling isn't really about judging the most likely winner, though. It's about finding the best value. That said, if Trump's current odds are 13/8, those are really shit value.

 

[Pickman's model]

Betting odds are a reflection of what people who bet think. Given that people who bet tend to lose a lot of money on their poor judgment, I don't pay much heed to betting odds

Odds also reflect what people are told. It's not something that occurs to gamblers in a vacuum! But if LBJ is right about trump's odds being 13/8 despite more money going on him, suggests to me bookies are confident in a Biden win. If on the one hand you have the incumbent with much of the weight of the state behind him and on the other a rather lacklustre challenger I'd expect trump to be round evens rather than c.3/2.