US election 2020 thread

[planetgeli]

The 50/1 Trump offer with William Hill, which is obviously a promotion, will not be unconnected to increased advertising and media exposure in the States as Caesars Entertainment this week announced a £3billion buy-out of the company.

 

[planetgeli]

And btw you can get 15/8 with BetFred and 19/10 with betfair.

US Politics Betting | American Political Odds | Oddschecker

US politics betting for all American markets. Get 2020 Election odds, including Democrat and Republican candidates, plus midterm specials and much more

www.oddschecker.com

Article on money going on Trump but Biden's favouritism.

2020 US Election Odds: Donald Trump dominates betting but Biden clear favourite

Joe Biden is the clear favourite to win the election with the bookmakers, but that's not putting punters off backing Donald Trump.

www.oddschecker.com

 

[Dogsauce]

Just a quick visualisation of what's occurring in the TX suburbs and the direction of travel in recent years:

That does show that strongly republican areas are also getting out to vote, don’t let generally high turnout make you too optimistic. Remember the right has good form for getting the vote out in recent years, it’s the same characters pushing stuff through social media.

 

[JTG]

That does show that strongly republican areas are also getting out to vote, don’t let generally high turnout make you too optimistic. Remember the right has good form for getting the vote out in recent years, it’s the same characters pushing stuff through social media.

It shows swing and that is the point

ETA: it also shows population growth in the suburbs. My whole point through this thing is to emphasise that the Texas suburbs are changing rapidly and this is illustrated by a bigger electorate, higher turnout and movement to the left even if that is starting from a deep red point. It's not really good enough to just say "strongly Republican areas are turning out" given all of this

 

[moochedit]

The 50/1 Trump offer with William Hill, which is obviously a promotion, will not be unconnected to increased advertising and media exposure in the States as Caesars Entertainment this week announced a £3billion buy-out of the company.

Internet gambling in illegal in the states as far as i am aware (except possibly in Nevada) and i believe us banks have to block any card payments to foreign betting sites.

 

[planetgeli]

Internet gambling in illegal in the states as far as i am aware (except possibly in Nevada) and i believe us banks have to block any card payments to foreign betting sites.

Yes it is illegal.

This hasn't stopped one British company taking $231million on the outcome. There's no way some of that isn't from America.

 

[Streathamite]

Bristol!

tbh, I was pretty certain of that, but I didn't want to be a party-pooper

 

[Streathamite]

Do you think there's any truth to those dementia rumours?

From all I hear from my stateside contacts - it's probably untrue. He trips over his words, but that's more due to the legacy of his stammer than anything else. Also, the evidence of your own ears and eyes. A presidential campaign is a gruelling, arduous 15 month thing, but he's been sharp, alert, composed and focussed throughout - note his exasperation during the first debate, with "oh, quit your yapping, man !"

 

[JTG]

From all I hear from my stateside contacts - it's probably untrue. He trips over his words, but that's more due to the legacy of his stammer than anything else. Also, the evidence of your own ears and eyes. A presidential campaign is a gruelling, arduous 15 month thing, but he's been sharp, alert, composed and focussed throughout - note his exasperation during the first debate, with "oh, quit your yapping, man !"

Honestly, there's a lot wrong with him politically but I think all this mental deterioration stuff is a bit of a reach and somewhat distasteful

 

[Streathamite]

At the end of the day, one has to remember a lot of people vote Republican because they always vote Republican - an awful lot of his support is the middle class who do just this, even if they have to hold their noses.

actually, quite a lot of his traditional Republican support is melting away - hence the remarkable figures coming out of TX, GA, IA, AZ, MT, NC

 

[Streathamite]

Honestly, there's a lot wrong with him politically but I think all this mental deterioration stuff is a bit of a reach and somewhat distasteful

agreed, on both counts.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Bristol!

I think it's a combination of using social media, esp Twitter, but also having a halfway decent mental filter to assess what info 'seems' correct/useful and what doesn't. I have a mediocre history degree but one thing it taught me was how to assess sources of evidence and use them

Also, I'm an info sponge

We really have turned into a circus when someone in Bristol can follow our politics like its a football league.

 

[Streathamite]

What is a "normal" political movement?
People being attracted to political groups/parties based on style, on what they think the political group represents rather than its detailed policies is hardly abnormal.

I think that what bimble is possibly referring to is that the psychology of the whole Trump thing is more akin to a religious cult than most political movements.
i'm guessing, mind.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

I gave Harrison a small donation. I'm glad I could help Lindsey Graham have a lousy day. Its not enough to work to get rid of Trump. All of his enablers down-ballot need to go too.

He should keep in mind that the Republicans went all the way to the Supreme Court to fight for the notion that money = free speech. People across the country are just exercising their first amendment rights when they donate large amounts of cash to see the back of him. Does the phrase "he don't like it up him" apply here?

 

[Cloo]

actually, quite a lot of his traditional Republican support is melting away - hence the remarkable figures coming out of TX, GA, IA, AZ, MT, NC

Here's hoping... I think the incompetence over covid is hitting home

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Odds also reflect what people are told. It's not something that occurs to gamblers in a vacuum! But if LBJ is right about trump's odds being 13/8 despite more money going on him, suggests to me bookies are confident in a Biden win. If on the one hand you have the incumbent with much of the weight of the state behind him and on the other a rather lacklustre challenger I'd expect trump to be round evens rather than c.3/2.

As far as I know, and I could be wrong, bookies work on an 'overound' which guarantees whatever the outcome they win. So in a two horse race if they get a lot of money for A they will lengthen the odds of B to get more bets on B thereby limiting their exposure. Put briefly, the odds on Biden and Trump are not their guess of who is going to win, its a purely financial formula reflective of the bets they have had at that point.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I think that what bimble is possibly referring to is that the psychology of the whole Trump thing is more akin to a religious cult than most political movements.
i'm guessing, mind.

Yeah, but that's also bollocks

 

[JTG]

We really have turned into a circus when someone in Bristol can follow our politics like its a football league.

Tbh I'm just an election geek who's been following US elections for 20 years

 

[two sheds]

How did you call the last one?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

How did you call the last one?

Don't ask that....

 

[littlebabyjesus]

As far as I know, and I could be wrong, bookies work on an 'overound' which guarantees whatever the outcome they win. So in a two horse race if they get a lot of money for A they will lengthen the odds of B to get more bets on B thereby limiting their exposure. Put briefly, the odds on Biden and Trump are not their guess of who is going to win, its a purely financial formula reflective of the bets they have had at that point.

Not quite, though. If twice as much money is going on Trump than Biden, they will lose out if Trump wins. They have taken the view that Trump is more unlikely to win than the odds they're offering, so they conclude that the offer has value to them, but bookies can and do lose on particular races/events.

eg

If they are offering 2-1 on Trump and 1-2 on Biden and have taken £4 on Trump and £2 on Biden, they win £3 if Biden wins, and they lose £6 if Trump wins. So they just need to think that the odds on Trump winning are worse than 2-1 to see value in making that offer. (And to have the £6 in the kitty to cover the payout if they lose.)

 

[JTG]

How did you call the last one?

Tbf I was in Thailand having a good time over the last week or so so missed the exciting bit
However, I do remember my first response being "they shouldn't have put up such a shit candidate then"

 

[Pickman's model]

As far as I know, and I could be wrong, bookies work on an 'overound' which guarantees whatever the outcome they win. So in a two horse race if they get a lot of money for A they will lengthen the odds of B to get more bets on B thereby limiting their exposure. Put briefly, the odds on Biden and Trump are not their guess of who is going to win, its a purely financial formula reflective of the bets they have had at that point.

Yes, I appreciate that. I know these aren't actual probabilities as you say. In fact I don't think I've commented on this as you seem to think I have.

 

[Streathamite]

Yeah, but that's also bollocks

ermm - why?

 

[two sheds]

Tbf I was in Thailand having a good time over the last week or so so missed the exciting bit
However, I do remember my first response being "they shouldn't have put up such a shit candidate then"

Even if you'd have gone for Clinton you'd only have been one out.

 

[frogwoman]

Many, possibly most political movements have a lot in common with cults tbh.

 

[JTG]

Even if you'd have gone for Clinton you'd only have been one out.

I was surprised she lost but not shocked. A normal sized polling error plus the electoral college can do that. She put far too many people off in the end and the emails were just the catalyst people needed to jump ship

 

[Streathamite]

Does the phrase "he don't like it up him" apply here?

deoes this mean you've been watching some rather quaint old Brit sitcoms, or is the phrase a thing in America too?

 

[JTG]

Many, possibly most political movements have a lot in common with cults tbh.

I agree to an extent. They're always coalitions of people with different motivations and will necessarily be fluid as a result. Some people will always want to go all in and look a bit unhinged to everyone not in the bubble.
That said, many more just vote for their own pragmatic or cultural reasons without ever being culty

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

deoes this mean you've been watching some rather quaint old Brit sitcoms, or is the phrase a thing in America too?

You caught me! Yes, I've been watching British sit-coms. Our public broadcast station carries them on Saturdays.