US election 2020 thread

[Artaxerxes]

Are there any particular parts of the armed forces that Trump might consider to be more on his side than others or than the pentagon in general?

Not really, a few privates but Trump spent last few years insulting everyone senior and pissing on soldiers respect so though they'd vote for him because republican none of them are going to die for him or set America on fire.

Now if it was the cops he'd be on firmer ground

 

[Flavour]

Exactly, who needs the army when you have loyal and highly militarised police departments?

 

[Spymaster]

I’m not saying I think he’ll succeed in staying in power, only that complacency and sitting back trusting that it’s all fine just an old man shouting at the sky is a mistake.

There’s not much else to do at the moment. The legal challenges have to be seen to be defeated and we can be very confident that they will be. Let them run their courses. All of this gerrymandering with defence officials is just him holding up a middle finger as his head disappears into the water. Enjoy it. There will be no coup and Biden will swap them all around again in a couple of months.

 

[Yossarian]

Exactly, who needs the army when you have loyal and highly militarised police departments?

There are 18,000 law enforcement agencies in the US - if they want to destroy the country by battling the military and each other in a chaotic civil war, I guess the rest of the world will have to buy some popcorn and wait it out, but I'm not sure if that's Trump's endgame.

 

[bimble]

The main thing that Esper (the now sacked Defence Secretary) did to piss off Trump was when he publicly stated that it would be unacceptable to invoke the insurrection act, as trump mooted he was considering doing, back in june.
If nobody goes out into the streets to do mass demonstrations there's no chance of anything like that happening, but thats exactly what i see some people calling for now, with the best of intentions.
It is the historians who are most alarmed at the moment, not the lawyers.
eg) Thread by @TimothyDSnyder on Thread Reader App

 

[JTG]

Meanwhile at the counts:

152m votes counted so far, more than 15m higher than the previous record
Joe Biden's lead has passed 5m votes
Joe Biden has passed 10m votes in California, the first candidate ever to record eight figures in a single state
Biden lead in California is 4.9m

 

[SpookyFrank]

Meanwhile at the counts:

152m votes counted so far, more than 15m higher than the previous record
Joe Biden's lead has passed 5m votes
Joe Biden has passed 10m votes in California, the first candidate ever to record eight figures in a single state
Biden lead in California is 4.9m

So California effectively accounts for Biden's entire lead in the popular vote.

 

[existentialist]

So California effectively accounts for Biden's entire lead in the popular vote.

Trump is evidently suing the wrong states

 

[littlebabyjesus]

So California effectively accounts for Biden's entire lead in the popular vote.

There is another way of expressing that. Even if you take out California, Biden still leads. Wasn't true of Clinton last time.

 

[JTG]

So California effectively accounts for Biden's entire lead in the popular vote.

Yes, though a small lead elsewhere is starting to emerge as other large states (NY, IL) work through their mail ballots

 

[ohmyliver]

but getting the US military to act as Trump's personal muscle is going to be a much more difficult challenge than finding compliant loons to stuff into the DOD.

Especially after this summer when military top brass put out 'remember US military, your oath is to the US, and the US constitution, not a specific president' public statements.

 

[Thaw]

Stupid little provincial blimp prick. He knows exactly what he is doing. Cunt.

"provincial"?

 

[Dogsauce]

His game is to delegitimise Biden’s election as much as he can, partly for his own ego, but also to give a cause to his supporters, so that they feel like oppressed victims and have something to rally around in future elections. The right runs on victimhood these days, more than the left ever did. You’re not allowed to be racist anymore and it’s just not fair etc. Fuel for the political engine.

 

[frogwoman]

Trump administration removes senior defense officials and installs loyalists, triggering alarm at Pentagon

The Trump administration has carried out sweeping changes atop the Defense Department's civilian leadership structure, removing several of its most senior officials and replacing them with perceived loyalists to the President.

edition.cnn.com

 

[bimble]

Especially after this summer when military top brass put out 'remember US military, your oath is to the US, and the US constitution, not a specific president' public statements.

But this man says (which i didnt know) "the uniformed military don't give orders to the armed forces, that's the president and the secretary of defence. . They [the military] will follow orders of the president of the united states unless they are illegal".
Which is what kebabking already said, but that being the case i don't see why people think it would be hard to get the army to do stuff, as long as that stuff is legal.

 

[JTG]

There is another way of expressing that. Even if you take out California, Biden still leads. Wasn't true of Clinton last time.

Eight states have shown a swing towards Trump thus far: AK, HI, NY, IL, MS, UT, AR, FL

UT - Evan McMullin took a big slice of votes in 2016 so it's a reversion to the norm
AR - Probably some kind of residual Clinton vote effect in 16 so a reversion to the norm
HI - massive increase in turnout (33%) in a low turnout state so maybe just brought out more Trump inclined voters
NY, IL, AK - all still have a significant chunk of votes to count so may follow national trend eventually. NY possibly had a Clinton (former state Senator) effect in '16
FL - Cuban-Americans in Miami. Also, it's Florida
MS - It's Mississippi

Average swing of 1.9% to Biden in battleground states, 1.1% in the rest
Biggest swings were 8.8% in Nebraska second district; 8.6% in Colorado; 8.5% in Maine first district

 

[JTG]

as long as that stuff is legal.

And there's the catch

 

[JTG]

NYT have contacted every single state asking about election fraud and come up with nothing. Quotes lifted from the Graun so you don't have to look:

“There’s a great human capacity for inventing things that aren’t true about elections,” said Frank LaRose, a Republican who serves as Ohio’s secretary of state. “The conspiracy theories and rumors and all those things run rampant. For some reason, elections breed that type of mythology.”

Steve Simon, a Democrat who is Minnesota’s secretary of state, said: “I don’t know of a single case where someone argued that a vote counted when it shouldn’t have or didn’t count when it should. There was no fraud.”

“Kansas did not experience any widespread, systematic issues with voter fraud, intimidation, irregularities or voting problems,” a spokeswoman for Scott Schwab, the Republican secretary of state in Kansas, said in an email Tuesday. “We are very pleased with how the election has gone up to this point.”

 

[JTG]

His game is to delegitimise Biden’s election as much as he can, partly for his own ego, but also to give a cause to his supporters, so that they feel like oppressed victims and have something to rally around in future elections. The right runs on victimhood these days, more than the left ever did. You’re not allowed to be racist anymore and it’s just not fair etc. Fuel for the political engine.

I think this is a large part of it. It's fuel for the fire, grist for the mill. Keep their movement healthy beyond Trump's presidency.

The other part I guess is the long shot of delaying the process long enough that votes don't get certified in time for electors to be appointed. There's no chance of that in Nevada, which is completely run by Democrats; Pennsylvania the GOP legislature have said they'll go with the popular vote and there's a Dem governor to contend with as well; Georgia... yeah I guess there's a greater issue of an institutionally entrenched GOP messing around but they're currently fighting their own SoS over that. You can figure out others if you like.

Point is, it's a long shot

 

[mauvais]

But this man says (which i didnt know) "the uniformed military don't give orders to the armed forces, that's the president and the secretary of defence. . They [the military] will follow orders of the president of the united states unless they are illegal".
Which is what kebabking already said, but that being the case i don't see why people think it would be hard to get the army to do stuff, as long as that stuff is legal.

There's a lot of difference between giving an order and having it executed as you actually wanted by a complex hierarchy of professionals with their own degrees of autonomy.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

But this man says (which i didnt know) "the uniformed military don't give orders to the armed forces, that's the president and the secretary of defence. . They [the military] will follow orders of the president of the united states unless they are illegal".
Which is what kebabking already said, but that being the case i don't see why people think it would be hard to get the army to do stuff, as long as that stuff is legal.

Key point there being 'legal'. Even you are resorting to the legal process to give Trump a route towards retaining power.

tbh what is playing out here is really nothing more than the pathology of an extreme narcissist. In the big debate in history about the importance of 'great men' vs wider processes, the answer is normally 'both': so Lenin could only get into power due to the conflluence of many historical processes, but that Lenin got into power in 1917 and not somebody else very certainly affected how the revolution would go. In this instance, there are none of the historical processes to back Trump up. Anyone else would have conceded on Saturday. Trump didn't, but the outcome will be exactly the same in the end. He doesn't get to affect the course of history just by refusing to concede. The necessary preconditions for a coup don't exist.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

Meanwhile, world leaders are congratulating Biden as president elect, and the saner members of the GOP have too. What Trump does now is getting more irrelevant by the day, the huge unstoppable machine of global politics has simply thundered past him.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Meanwhile, world leaders are congratulating Biden as president elect, and the saner members of the GOP have too. What Trump does now is getting more irrelevant by the day, the huge unstoppable machine of global politics has simply thundered past him.

But, but, but...

 

[JTG]

Other news:
Cal Cunningham has conceded to Thom Tillis in the NC Senate race which probably gives you an idea about how Dems feel about their chances of closing the gap in the Presidential there
AZ - still Trump closes the gap but still he's not hitting the margins needed to win. Now needs to win the remaining c45,000 votes by 20 points to win the state

 

[BlanketAddict]

Meanwhile, world leaders are congratulating Biden as president elect, and the saner members of the GOP have too. What Trump does now is getting more irrelevant by the day, the huge unstoppable machine of global politics has simply thundered past him.

It is at least, interesting, that Russia and China have so far stayed silent.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

It is at least, interesting, that Russia and China have so far stayed silent.

And of no help to Trump whatsoever.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

It is at least, interesting, that Russia and China have so far stayed silent.

Has North Korea said anything yet?

 

[bimble]

The necessary preconditions for a coup don't exist.

what are they then?

(i'm not enjoying myself by the way, and don't intend to keep this up until January, fully hope that i'll just feel a bit daft in a week or so when its all over).

 

[Humberto]

And of no help to Trump whatsoever.

Is a few European leaders congratulating Biden on the phone really that helpful though?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Is a few European leaders congratulating Biden on the phone really that helpful though?

Yes.