US election 2020 thread

[Pickman's model]

The absurdity is priceless and the ridicule deserved. I bet whatever admin minion in the Trump team made the booking is getting it in the neck.

not to mention the chest, back and defensive wounds to the hands and forearms

 

[andysays]

i really wouldn't worry too much Tankus , a quick look down the fetid pit of trumpty twitter suggests that the longer this drags on the fewer people will be interested in showing up to support a massive loser.
this was nice for instance.
View attachment 238038

Surprised she hasn't claimed her followers are being STOLEN!!1!

 

[Sprocket.]

I've been reading about the get out the vote effort of the Navajo and Hopi nations. If you recall, the Navajo have been very hard hit by Covid 19. When they asked for help with supplies the Trump Administration sent native tribes body bags.

Arizona flips! Navajos contribute to historic shift - Navajo Times

For only the second time in the last 70 years, Arizona voters went for the Democratic candidate for president, and Navajo voters contributed to the swing.

navajotimes.com

Looking closely at the Arizona returns, it appears that it was the Navajo who put Biden over the top and helped flip Arizona.

The moral of the story is don't fuck with the Navajo.

I found this while reading through the latest edition Yuwipi Woman, it made me smile.

 

[JTG]

JTG , Thats pretty remarkable considering covids impact on the economy

Looking at that graph it very much looks like things were taking a downward slide, then the stimulus came along and took things up before a down turn again. But I guess it's perception that counts and they still sit higher than they did four years ago. In terms of the fundamentals of popularity, Trump was doing well and it seems only the handling of Covid and all his other bullshit have dragged him down

 

[kabbes]

I suspect it’s a trick of the median. We are used to thinking of the median as being more representative of the “average person” than the mean, but that doesn’t mean it can replace an overview of the complete range. If the richest 51% of people double their money and the other 49% of people lose everything, the median will show a doubling.

So when the US sent everybody a $1200 paycheque, the only thing that matters for the median assessment is — was the person sitting at the 50th percentile more or less than $1200 worse off before that cheque arrived? I don’t find it hard to believe that even if 20% of people lost their job, the 50th percentile person was broadly as they were before that $1200 arrived.

To reiterate: it’s a trick of the maths. It doesn’t tell you anything about what has happened to the bottom half of society, wealth-wise. Only what happened to the person exactly in the middle.

 

[JTG]

I suspect it’s a trick of the median. We are used to thinking of the median as being more representative of the “average person” than the mean, but that doesn’t mean it can replace an overview of the complete range. If the richest 51% of people double their money and the other 49% of people lose everything, the median will show a doubling.

So when the US sent everybody a $1200 paycheque, the only thing that matters for the median assessment is — was the person sitting at the 50th percentile more or less than $1200 worse off before that cheque arrived? I don’t find it hard to believe that even if 20% of people lost their job, the 50th percentile person was broadly as they were before that $1200 arrived.

To reiterate: it’s a trick of the maths. It doesn’t tell you anything about what has happened to the bottom half of society, wealth-wise. Only what happened to the person exactly in the middle.

Yeah that makes perfect sense

 

[moochedit]

Why Trump's appeal was wider than you (or I) may have expected: it's the economy stupid - or at least people's perception of the economy and their place in it

What is "cares"?

 

[JTG]

What is "cares"?

Coronavirus Aid, Relief & Economic Security Act - the stimulus package.
They love a good acronym in Washington

 

[moochedit]

Coronavirus Aid, Relief & Economic Security Act - the stimulus package.
They love a good acronym in Washington

Ok. Equivalent of furlough then.

 

[kabbes]

Ok. Equivalent of furlough then.

Except that they gave it to everybody

 

[SpookyFrank]

JTG , Thats pretty remarkable considering covids impact on the economy

Much of the impact of covid will be deferred, even more so than here in the UK where there has been more in the way of national lockdown measures.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Looking at that graph it very much looks like things were taking a downward slide, then the stimulus came along and took things up before a down turn again. But I guess it's perception that counts and they still sit higher than they did four years ago. In terms of the fundamentals of popularity, Trump was doing well and it seems only the handling of Covid and all his other bullshit have dragged him down

In these 'are you better off now than then' polls, there is also the factor that, over the course of a person's working lifetime, they tend on average to get promotions and earn more as time goes on, see their debts start going down, etc.

 

[Dogsauce]

Except that they gave it to everybody

Even my mate who’s lived in Leeds for about a decade. Surprised they included overseas citizens.

 

[prunus]

I suspect it’s a trick of the median. We are used to thinking of the median as being more representative of the “average person” than the mean, but that doesn’t mean it can replace an overview of the complete range. If the richest 51% of people double their money and the other 49% of people lose everything, the median will show a doubling.

So when the US sent everybody a $1200 paycheque, the only thing that matters for the median assessment is — was the person sitting at the 50th percentile more or less than $1200 worse off before that cheque arrived? I don’t find it hard to believe that even if 20% of people lost their job, the 50th percentile person was broadly as they were before that $1200 arrived.

To reiterate: it’s a trick of the maths. It doesn’t tell you anything about what has happened to the bottom half of society, wealth-wise. Only what happened to the person exactly in the middle.

Or even to the top half - it is possible for the median income to rise at the same time as everybody else’s income falls. Medians should always be looked at along with means (and vice versa) - which is just a lazy way of saying look at the shape of the whole distribution - single statistics can never describe it all. IMO.

 

[not-bono-ever]

For a nation founded on cannibalism ( Jamestown 1609) it would be fitting to see the GOP resort to this unsavoury practice again

 

[Pickman's model]

For a nation founded on cannibalism ( Jamestown 1609) it would be fitting to see the GOP resort to this unsavoury practice again

the donner kebab celebrates american cannibalism

 

[krtek a houby]

For a nation founded on cannibalism ( Jamestown 1609) it would be fitting to see the GOP resort to this unsavoury practice again

GOP will eat itself

 

[moochedit]

Even my mate who’s lived in Leeds for about a decade. Surprised they included overseas citizens.

Us citizens have to pay us income tax even if living overseas so maybe that has something to do with it.

 

[JTG]

Us citizens have to pay us income tax even if living overseas so maybe that has something to do with it.

They retain voting rights forever don't they? Fairly sure I know of people who are retired overseas and have no intention of returning 'home' but who have the vote

 

[moochedit]

They retain voting rights forever don't they? Fairly sure I know of people who are retired overseas and have no intention of returning 'home' but who have the vote

Yes i think that is correct.

 

[2hats]

To reiterate: it’s a trick of the maths. It doesn’t tell you anything about what has happened to the bottom half of society, wealth-wise. Only what happened to the person exactly in the middle.

Always examine the KDE.

 

[Sue]

Us citizens have to pay us income tax even if living overseas so maybe that has something to do with it.

Yeah. My American colleagues have been away for 12 and 15 years respectively, are still liable for income tax there (even though all their income is here and on PAYE) and could and did both vote.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Us citizens have to pay us income tax even if living overseas so maybe that has something to do with it.

They have to do a tax return. However, they get credits for the taxes they pay in the country they live in. So an American living in the UK is very likely to pay zero US income tax. They'll be eligible for UK furlough money as well, so paying them US furlough doesn't really make sense.

 

[moochedit]

Yeah. My American colleagues have been away for 12 and 15 years respectively, are still liable for income tax there (even though all their income is here and on PAYE) and could and did both vote.

Yep i believe boris johnson had to pay us income tax until he renounced his us citizenship a few years back. He was born in new york to british parents who returned to the uk afterwards.

 

[two sheds]

Always examine the KDE.

Liked to make it look like I had any idea of what that was

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

I vaguely remember that doctors without borders going into a first nation region to help them with the covid.

Is this the area that they went to?

I'm not certain. I do know that they've set up a few day clinics. I think most of those were in the southern US and were heavily attended.

 

[not-bono-ever]

I'm not certain. I do know that they've set up a few day clinics. I think most of those were in the southern US and were heavily attended.

Massive Pop up medical care and dentistry staffed by volunteers is still a regular occurrence in Appalachia - people camping out for days to be in the queue

 

[2hats]

Liked to make it look like I had any idea of what that was

Kernel Density Estimation.

 

[two sheds]

I know, I looked it up which didn't help

 

[Tankus]

trump's going to claim the vaccine was down to him , and the information was deliberately released after most of the election tabulations were done in order that it wouldn't count .

And this will be used as another reason why he should stay on