US election 2020 thread

[Kaka Tim]

trump seems desperate to stop the count in pennsylvania - which is interesting cos - on the surface - it doesn't seem as likely to go blue as some of the others. Mail in ballots strongly favouring biden apparently.

 

[tim]

Can he stop the count?

Anyone who remembers "Dastardly and Muttley" will know that Trump's rabble of lawyers will never stop Yankee-Doodle pigeon getting through with his special messages.

 

[frogwoman]

I'm not too confident

 

[killer b]

He's done for. Once Michigan's in the bag Biden only needs one more, and there's three looking likely and one more possible.

 

[JTG]

Ok so stuff that can go wrong.

We can safely give Biden Michigan. Trump needs to overturn Biden's lead in Arizona (very unlikely?) or Nevada (probably unlikely?), hang on in PA (fuck knows?) and hang on in Georgia and North Carolina (probable?). He needs a bunch of probables, possibles and unlikelies to all go his way. No impossibles in there, but multiplying unlikelies together quickly produces near-impossibles.

Arizona: it's late arriving mail ballots but these won't be as Dem as we've seen elsewhere because GOP voters love voting by mail out there and the party registrations of the ballots that arrived yesterday skewed heavily Republican. HOWEVER that isn't necessarily bad news as a lot of GOP voters appear to have voted against the President in Arizona. Trump needs to win the last batch of votes being counted by 21 points to win the state
Nevada: narrow lead but it's only mail ballots and provisional ballots from Vegas left and will almost certainly carry Biden home
PA has gone, experts reckon Biden's hitting his margins in counties that have completed their counts and the rest is going heavily for him
GA & NC: dunno, possible, would be nice but yeah

 

[Nine Bob Note]

Biden now at 1/12

 

[Ax^]

I'm not too confident

whilst it still can go either way, because it was republican policy that meant the mail in vote could not be counted before election day
he team of lawyers might not have that much to stand on, even when they talking about dead people voting and the votes not being cleared properly
even after they demand 50000 republicans watch the counting

it just sort of nonsensical but this is again america with the hanging chads

 

[eatmorecheese]

Giuliani splutteringly bombastic just now

 

[JTG]

GA deficit down to 68,000 with 6% left to report. Still doable

 

[Ax^]

Biden now at 1/12

were are you getting these betting odds?

 

[Nine Bob Note]

were are you getting these betting odds?

Paddys

 

[Ax^]

Giuliani splutteringly bombastic just now

he remind me of the Simpson episode were Lisa finds out snow ball voted for Quimby

 

[Lord Camomile]

trump seems desperate to stop the count in pennsylvania - which is interesting cos - on the surface - it doesn't seem as likely to go blue as some of the others. Mail in ballots strongly favouring biden apparently.

I don't know politics, nor do I know skeezy politics, but I wonder if they figure there's merit in just muddying all the waters?

 

[Ax^]

Paddys

1/10 atm

 

[ruffneck23]

.

 

[Wilf]

I don't get the confidence about PA. From memory Biden was 550,000 behind when there were about 3.3m left to count. He's now 300,000 behind with 980k to count. Is it that this last million is even more breaking for him - it would have to be 2:1.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I don't get the confidence about PA. From memory Biden was 550,000 behind when there were about 3.3m left to count. He's now 300,000 behind with 980k to count. Is it that this last million is even more breaking for him - it would have to be 2:1.

There are conflicting numbers floating around about how many votes are left to count.

It still feels like a lot of heavy lifting to me, though.

 

[strung out]

I don't get the confidence about PA. From memory Biden was 550,000 behind when there were about 3.3m left to count. He's now 300,000 behind with 980k to count. Is it that this last million is even more breaking for him - it would have to be 2:1.

Think those figure were a bit off (Guardian probably). He was 600k behind with about 1.6m to count, so he's making up ground at exactly the rate he needs to.

 

[Wilf]

I'm still thinking this comes down to Nevada. And I'm not sure what the balance between postal and in person is for both the counted and uncounted. Anyway, it's down to Vegas.

 

[Wilf]

There are conflicting numbers floating around about how many votes are left to count.

It still feels like a lot of heavy lifting to me, though.

Exactly.

 

[Plumdaff]

NYT and Fox both officially called Michigan for Biden, yet to hear it from AP.

 

[Raheem]

I don't know politics, nor do I know skeezy politics, but I wonder if they figure there's merit in just muddying all the waters?

In Michigan, they're suing on the basis that they haven't been given effective access to the counts, so the counts need to stop until they do. This sounds like bullshit - if there's any genuine problem with the accessing counts, it's likely they could sort it out without going to court. Seems designed, instead, to serve the narrative that there are dodgy goings-on.

 

[Wilf]

Think those figure were a bit off (Guardian probably). He was 600k behind with about 1.6m to count, so he's making up ground at exactly the rate he needs to.

Ta. But that only puts it into squeaky bum, not Biden leaning.

 

[JTG]

I don't get the confidence about PA. From memory Biden was 550,000 behind when there were about 3.3m left to count. He's now 300,000 behind with 980k to count. Is it that this last million is even more breaking for him - it would have to be 2:1.

Well for a start Philadelphia still has 28% of its vote to report and Biden leads by 60 points there. The mail vote is likely to be even more in his favour. The suburban counties around it - Montgomery & Chester - haven't been quite so heavy but still have a healthy Biden lead and again, the mail votes will be even better for him. Ditto Pittsburgh, 18% of the vote to come and again it's gonna be Biden heavy

 

[JTG]

Also, in counties that have finished their counts, the numbers people reckon Biden is exactly where he needs to be - ie not getting pasted too heavily out in the sticks

 

[ignatious]

Politico and AP both calling Arizona for Biden.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

whilst it still can go either way, because it was republican policy that meant the mail in vote could not be counted before election day
he team of lawyers might not have that much to stand on, even when they talking about dead people voting and the votes not being cleared properly
even after they demand 50000 republicans watch the counting

it just sort of nonsensical but this is again america with the hanging chads

Thing about the hanging chads wheeze is that it worked, and that the governor of the state concerned just happened to be the brother of one of the candidates. Trump is an old man shaking his fist at the sky mostly atm. None of the states are stopping anything for him. The count goes on.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Giuliani splutteringly bombastic just now

Let's hope he bursts an anuerysm.

 

[Wilf]

Well for a start Philadelphia still has 28% of its vote to report and Biden leads by 60 points there. The mail vote is likely to be even more in his favour. The suburban counties around it - Montgomery & Chester - haven't been quite so heavy but still have a healthy Biden lead and again, the mail votes will be even better for him. Ditto Pittsburgh, 18% of the vote to come and again it's gonna be Biden heavy

Ta. So, essentially the last million in the barrel is more urban and more postal? My confusion is that I thought we were at that point at 3 million.

 

[prunus]

I don't get the confidence about PA. From memory Biden was 550,000 behind when there were about 3.3m left to count. He's now 300,000 behind with 980k to count. Is it that this last million is even more breaking for him - it would have to be 2:1.

So far it’s breaking nearer 4:1 though (when I last looked). I think it’s going to flip.