US election 2020 thread

[frogwoman]

Surprised Trump's pardoning of drug offenders like Alice Johnson hasn't been mentioned here unless I've missed something

 

[JTG]

Cheers. So, all to play for in Nevada.

Yeah it's a slim lead but the chances are that Biden still wins - ballots largely from Vegas. Everyone had a mail ballot in NV so no particular difference unless for some reason the returns yesterday were GOP leaning. Provisional ballots tend to break Dem as well

 

[strung out]

Seriously guys, you all just need to chill out. Biden has got this in the bag

 

[Lord Camomile]

Seriously guys, you all just need to chill out. Biden has got this in the bag

Even if he has, I fear what comes next won't be chill.

 

[JimW]

Surprised Trump's pardoning of drug offenders like Alice Johnson hasn't been mentioned here unless I've missed something

Recall seeing it mentioned, turns out it was our disinterested Trump observer posting: Good things Trump has done as President

 

[JimW]

Seriously guys, you all just need to chill out. Biden has got this in the bag

One of those old school thin plastic ones where the handles break halfway home and spill your shopping.

 

[MickiQ]

Oh, he's started tweeting, and he's not a happy bunny.

It's a process called counting probably not an easy one for him to grasp

 

[gentlegreen]

I suppose Trump being dragged out in a strait jacket after fouling the walls of the oval office might be almost as effective as a landslide ...

 

[Wilf]

Seriously guys, you all just need to chill out. Biden has got this in the bag

Pennslyvania looks like a lost cause tbh.

 

[JTG]

Things that can/will still happen

• Recounts - if a state's within a percentage point. So that could go for any of these close races but especially Wisconsin. Think it needs to be requested by a candidate. Rarely changes the outcome
• Litigation - there are law suits happening in Pennsylvania now but it's unclear how this paves a path to the Supreme Court. They can't just refer it upwards, there needs to be a reason
• Some states are able to keep receiving and counting mail ballots sent by yesterday for the next week so if it's particularly close, don't expect a call, NC is one of those and I think NV too

 

[frogwoman]

There is a bit of praise in some circles for his approach to North Korea oddly enough. Listened to an interesting podcast on that the other day in which it was said that it will be hard for Biden or a hawkish republican to go back to total non engagement and sanctions after this

 

[Flavour]

Pennslyvania looks like a lost cause tbh.

Not sure about that.

 

[Pickman's model]

Seriously guys, you all just need to chill out. Biden has got this in the bag

yes. and how do you think things will go between now and when trump leaves office?

 

[JTG]

Pennslyvania looks like a lost cause tbh.

Philly, Pittsburgh and their suburbs still have hefty chunks of votes to count so no, it isn't

 

[Pickman's model]

There is a bit of praise in some circles for his approach to North Korea oddly enough. Listened to an interesting podcast on that the other day in which it was said that it will be hard for Biden or a hawkish republican to go back to total non engagement and sanctions after this

and to be fair the trump administration has been forthright about what's happening in xinjiang.

but that's a couple of pebbles in one side of the balance against some fucking huge rocks on the other

 

[cupid_stunt]

Pennslyvania looks like a lost cause tbh.

CNN reporting Trump's lead has dropped by 80k in the last hour, from around 630k to 550k, with almost a million votes to still count, so anything is possible.

 

[Lord Camomile]

So, does anyone know what the actual case is that will be taken to the Supreme Court? I'm assuming they'll have to make a passing attempt to dress up "we don't want their votes to count"?

<edit: ah, ok, just caught this

Things that can/will still happen

• Litigation - there are law suits happening in Pennsylvania now but it's unclear how this paves a path to the Supreme Court. They can't just refer it upwards, there needs to be a reason

So... no? >

 

[JTG]

So, does anyone know what the actual case is that will be taken to the Supreme Court? I'm assuming they'll have to make a passing attempt to dress up "we don't want their votes to count"?

They don't have one yet

 

[JTG]

<edit: ah, ok, just caught this

So... no? >

I mean, they may find something but there was loads of litigation before the election sorting out ballot deadlines etc so they need to find something new

 

[Poot]

Seriously guys, you all just need to chill out. Biden has got this in the bag

You are the person who just dumped 138,000 ballots and I claim my five pounds.

 

[strung out]

Pennslyvania looks like a lost cause tbh.

What makes you say that? Trump is currently 500k ahead but there are still over 3m votes left to count, primarily from Democratic strongholds and early voters (strongly Democratic). Washington Post have got it as leaning towards Biden at the moment.

 

[chilango]

If you like a gamble Nevada is the place to do it!

The house always wins

 

[NoXion]

Yeah on that point there was interview last night on France 24 news channel with a trump voting woman kitted out in a mask and surgical gloves who kept praising the economy etc. I've seen other trump supporters say stuff like 'Don't say trump supporters don't wear masks, I support the president and I always wear a mask and wash my hands!' so maybe it hasn't been so politicized among some people.

I always thought that the anti-mask/covid-denying thing was more of a loon obsession, rather than Trumpist. There's an overlap in that particular Venn diagram, but it's quite far from being a circle.

 

[chilango]

One of those old school thin plastic ones where the handles break halfway home and spill your shopping.

 

[planetgeli]

What makes you say that? Trump is currently 500k ahead but there are still over 3m votes left to count, primarily from Democratic strongholds and early voters (strongly Democratic). Washington Post have got it as leaning towards Biden at the moment.

cupid_stunt said 1 million. The figure I have is 1.6 million to count.

 

[JTG]

What makes you say that? Trump is currently 500k ahead but there are still over 3m votes left to count, primarily from Democratic strongholds and early voters (strongly Democratic). Washington Post have got it as leaning towards Biden at the moment.

Similarly, there are around 350,000 or so left in Georgia in Atlanta and surrounding counties and if they break 2-1 to Biden he wins more or less. Quite possible

 

[Nine Bob Note]

The house always wins

But who wins the house?

 

[Tankus]

Think Covid for-and-against broke mainly on partisan lines.

theres nowhere to draw the line
the split is marginally urban v country, even in places like california (though a lot less so than some other states)
though a 60/40 split in an area is still pretty even considering
View attachment 237308
View attachment 237309

(ETA: point already made by Crispy i see belatedly)

USPS statistics on mail-in ballots 'look worse than they actually are': report

According to data released on Wednesday, the United States Postal Service failed to deliver thousands of absentee ballots around the country before the cut-off times — but the official data actually misrepresented delivery rates, as the Postal Service stopped scanning many of the ballots to...

www.rawstory.com

South Florida includes Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties, the largest Democratic stronghold in the state. President Donald Trump is projected to carry Florida by more than 3 percent, due in large part to an apparent giant drop in Democrats’ margin in the area.

This data comes after U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan ordered USPS to inspect its facilities for lost mail-in ballots and deliver them on time. USPS refused to comply with the order, saying that it was not practical to do so. Sullivan is scheduled to hold a hearing later today about USPS non-compliance with his directive

.

scanned in to the sorting offices , but not scanned out

 

[JTG]

Biden expected to address the American people at some point today

 

[strung out]

cupid_stunt said 1 million. The figure I have is 1.6 million to count.

Guardian live updates:





If 5.5m votes = 64%, then that leaves over 3m left to count.

Guardian live update could be out of date of course.