US election 2020 thread

[Flavour]

GA would be so sweet but can't see it.

 

[JTG]

Guardian live updates:

View attachment 237317

View attachment 237318

If 5.5m votes = 64%, then that leaves over 3m left to count.

Guardian live update could be out of date of course.

I see your Grauniad and raise you the New York Times - 1.6m Live: Where Presidential Votes Remain to Be Counted

 

[Wilf]

One of those old school thin plastic ones where the handles break halfway home and spill your shopping.

But no longer 5p.

 

[planetgeli]

Guardian live updates:

View attachment 237317

View attachment 237318

If 5.5m votes = 64%, then that leaves over 3m left to count.

Guardian live update could be out of date of course.

That's miles behind as the Guardian have been all day.

Use Sky.

Biden 2, 431, 315
Trump 2, 981, 316
Other 73, 160
% 77%
Total 5, 485, 791
Remaining 1, 638, 613

 

[JTG]

 

[strung out]

I see your Grauniad and raise you the New York Times - 1.6m Live: Where Presidential Votes Remain to Be Counted

FFS @guardian

 

[Argonia]

Kanye got 57,000 votes I hear.

 

[Sue]

I thought you were an Arsenal fan JTG...

 

[Wilf]

What makes you say that? Trump is currently 500k ahead but there are still over 3m votes left to count, primarily from Democratic strongholds and early voters (strongly Democratic). Washington Post have got it as leaning towards Biden at the moment.

Well, we'll see. I'm not really in statistical mode, more an emotional one: that seems like a big optimistic turnaround to trudge through. So I'm hitching my emotional wellbeing to Vegas. What could possibly go wrong...

 

[JTG]

GA would be so sweet but can't see it.

Got my numbers wrong, 100k behind with 400k to count in Atlanta. They don't even need a 2-1 split

 

[strung out]

That's miles behind as the Guardian have been all day.

Use Sky.

Biden 2, 431, 315
Trump 2, 981, 316
Other 73, 160
% 77%
Total 5, 485, 791
Remaining 1, 638, 613

Fair enough - didn't realise the Guardian were that far behind! I still see the Democrats winning PA though.

 

[Wilf]

CNN reporting Trump's lead has dropped by 80k in the last hour, from around 630k to 550k, with almost a million votes to still count, so anything is possible.

Wherever this ends up, there's going to be some fascinating and/or depressing psephology to read after this. Particularly on the make up of the postal vs in person.

 

[Pickman's model]

Wherever this ends up, there's going to be some fascinating and/or depressing psephology to read after this. Particularly on the make up of the postal vs in person.

psephology is mind games for the middle classes

 

[brogdale]

So, does anyone know what the actual case is that will be taken to the Supreme Court? I'm assuming they'll have to make a passing attempt to dress up "we don't want their votes to count"?

<edit: ah, ok, just caught this

So... no? >

Sky news guest (US politics prof) suggested it was at the state constitutional level that assumptions about previous date-stamped mail-in votes being counted had not technically been ratified at state level..or some such.

 

[Wilf]

If PA does erode that 500k trump lead down to a Biden win, the president will take it on the chin and suggest the nation move on, in a spirit of unity and calm. I imagine.

 

[Lord Camomile]

Technically, that was only for the draw...

(Didn't stop me sending it to my Arsenal-supporting best friend, though )

 

[Pickman's model]

If PA does erode that 500k trump lead down to a Biden win, the president will take it on the chin and suggest the nation move on, in a spirit of unity and calm. I imagine.

president biden, i assume, as i can't see the current incumbent urging amity

 

[DJWrongspeed]

Whatever the outcome it does show how bad the polls can be. It looked like Biden had a clear margin.

Anyway , it'll go on for days but I hope that after the split 2000 election it can be the Democrats this time who are lucky.

 

[Wilf]

psephology is mind games for the middle classes

Swingometer: a party for electoral analysists where they put their car keys in a bowl. Then take them out again and go home to watch the results. All night.

 

[bimble]

not going to be luck, probably comes down to who has more & better lawyers.

 

[Pickman's model]

Joe Biden nearer to threshold for victory but race still too close to call - as it happened

Biden’s Michigan win, with 16 electoral votes, further narrows Trump’s path to victory

www.theguardian.com

 

[Pickman's model]

not going to be luck, probably comes down to who has more & better lawyers.

probably comes down to who has more amenable judges

 

[Wilf]

Whatever the outcome it does show how bad the polls can be. It looked like Biden had a clear margin.

Anyway , it'll go on for days but I hope that after the split 2000 election it can be the Democrats this time who are lucky.

What's the overall popular vote looking like (too lazy to look + must work)?

 

[Lord Camomile]

Sky news guest (US politics prof) suggested it was at the state constitutional level that assumptions about previous date-stamped mail-in votes being counted had not technically been ratified at state level..or some such.

Even though I knew it would be something petty and trumped up*, but it's still already annoying.



*leave it, it's a valid phrase and we have to reclaim it

 

[JTG]

What's the overall popular vote looking like (too lazy to look + must work)?

50.1/48.2% to Biden
A lead of 2.75 million ish

 

[danny la rouge]

What's the overall popular vote looking like (too lazy to look + must work)?

Biden 50.2%
Trump 48.3%

 

[Crispy]

Puerto Rico Statehood referendum is currently Yes 52.3:47.7 No with 95% of the votes counted.
All a bit academic with the Senate staying R

 

[Argonia]

It will be completely ridiculous if Biden gets a 50% of the popular vote and isn't elected. The American system is nuts.

 

[redsquirrel]

What's the overall popular vote looking like (too lazy to look + must work)?

On that late ballots probably will be significant. CA, and others, having votes posted on the 3rd to be valid

 

[chilango]

Swingometer: a party for electoral analysists where they put their car keys in a bowl. Then take them out again and go home to watch the results. All night.

Exit pole

(you can make that up yourselves)