US election 2020 thread

[Flavour]

The votes left to count look promising for Biden in Georgia, Wisconsin. Not sure if he can flip the others. Think PA's gone.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

On Zombie Liberalism I wrote this in August. Trumpian Conservatism & Zombie PMC liberalism = two cheeks of the same arse.

When is the penny going to drop for the left?

On (1) I agree that technocratic liberals is probably a better descriptor, so let's use that.

On (2) it is true that Biden doesn't have the personal baggage and unpopularity that Clinton had. But let's also be clear. In policy terms, in social, economic and cultural terms, Biden is about to run, essentially, the same campaign that Clinton ran and lost on in 2016. At the same point in the election cycle Trump trailed Clinton by 9% and now trails Biden by the same, but with two key differences from then and now that are being overlooked:

a) Trump support is strengthening among white voters (74% of the electorate) and the solid segment of support among Hispanic voters is moving in the right direction. The latest polling shows white voter satisfaction with Trump is 20% higher than it was at this point 4 years ago. Among Hispanic voters the latest WSJ poll showed his support increasing from 28% (2016) to 31% (now).
b) On all polls Trump remains in the lead on the economy and by a larger margin than in 2016

The same WSJ poll showed that among 'up for grabs' voters Trump has a 10% lead over Biden. The latest NSBC poll (and others) show the Biden lead decreasing in both the Rust Belt and Sunbelt states. The lead for Biden is approaching margin of error levels and this is before the campaign really intensifies.

Finally, landslide victories are normally won by candidates who are popularly perceived to be the candidate of 'change' and 'modernity'. Insurgent campaigns develop momentum, energy and engagement as a result. Biden is running a campaign based on the polar opposite. It's essential offer is to reset and return America back to some point in the past (Before Trump, the 90’s, whatever). The problem with that of course is that a return to the past isn't going to motivate people outside the base that it already has. Like Trump and the GOP the Democrats remain unpopular. The form of politics that Biden is to his core remains deeply unpopular. Most of the Biden support is based on lesser evilism rather than positive factors.

If 2016 taught the Democrats anything is was that the only way to beat Trump decisively is by acknowledging the surging desire for change and to put forward a programme - and a candidate - that reflects it.

The selection of Biden, and the manner in which the machine delivered him and defeated Sanders, was premised on an explicit rejection of 'change'. It was cloth eared.

It’s premised on on anAnti-Trump feeling/and a return of the professional managerial class to be enough to motivate its base and activists (because we know if nothing else that the Democrat machine alone can't win) and, crucially, to win the 'up for grabs’. It’s the same strategy as Clinton‘s basically.

It assumes the moral revulsion is enough and is wide enough to get home. It swaps an unpopular candidate for a less unpopular candidate.

As the campaign intensifies we can expect to see Biden painted at the candidate of defund the police/white BLM protestors smashing things up/antifa/stuff so off the wall that it will take the breath away.

The aim will be to motivate still angry white ‘left behind’ voters in the key states we’ve identified. It will target those fearful of civil war and riots.

It will seek to solidify the lead among the up for grabs by appeals to patriotism and yes, racism. It will seek to demotivate working class democratic support. It’s exactly how Nixon won by building an alliance of the reactionaries and the left behind and culturally angry in the 1970’s. Like then, a depressing and generational ‘culture war’ appeal over class interests can be stood up because of the essentially reactionary politics of the democrats.

I simply do not see any way to a Biden landslide. In a ‘normal’ year with a GOP candidate who wasn’t Trump I’d write Biden off now tbh. As it stands it’s 50/50

 

[Infidel Castro]

OK so uncalled states:

Arizona Biden +130,000 & 580,000 to count

Georgia Trump +102,000 & 410,000 to count

Michigan Trump +300,000 & 1.6m to count

NC Trump +76,000 & 290,000 to count

Penn Trump +678,000 & 1.9m to count

Wisconsin Trump +119,000 & 650,000 to count

Hope that's clear to read, been a long night!

So as I read this, with there being 77 electoral votes on those remaining states, and with Trump ahead in each (Arizona already called Biden), is this election Trump's to lose?

 

[bimble]

Going back to bed until Friday seems a good idea.

 

[two sheds]

Good luck to anyone in the US who's been criticizing/protesting against Trump recently.

 

[Pickman's model]

Going back to bed until Friday seems a good idea.

Yeh the second Friday in November 2024

 

[quiet guy]

This election highlights how wrong the whole vote counting process is in USA. It really needs over hauling.

 

[Epona]

Quote of the night - "Democracy has had a bad run recently"

 

[JTG]

So as I read this, with there being 77 electoral votes on those remaining states, and with Trump ahead in each (Arizona already called Biden), is this election Trump's to lose?

Assuming a full count (yeah I know!) and knowing that a lot of those votes skew urban and by mail... not necessarily.
Fully prepared to be wrong yet again but there are hundreds of thousands of votes left in Philadelphia, Detroit, Atlanta and elsewhere

But, you know, lawyers

 

[danny la rouge]

So as I read this, with there being 77 electoral votes on those remaining states, and with Trump ahead in each (Arizona already called Biden), is this election Trump's to lose?

It’s worth remembering the received wisdom that Democrats are more likely to use postal votes and that its postal votes that are taking longer to count.

 

[ska invita]

.

 

[Pickman's model]

So he's declared victory and declared fraud.

He'd know

 

[Pickman's model]

It’s worth remembering the received wisdom that Democrats are more likely to use postal votes and that its postal votes that are taking longer to count.

They have to be unfolded and flattened and everything

 

[danny la rouge]

So he's declared victory and declared fraud.

He’s won the honest votes. It’s the fraudulent votes he’s lost.

 

[Pickman's model]

The votes left to count look promising for Biden in Georgia, Wisconsin. Not sure if he can flip the others. Think PA's gone.

It's all fucked

 

[redsquirrel]

So as I read this, with there being 77 electoral votes on those remaining states, and with Trump ahead in each (Arizona already called Biden), is this election Trump's to lose?

No, in many cases the remaining votes will be from Democrat heavy constituencies. Does not mean Biden will win but you can't make the simple assumption above

 

[cupid_stunt]

According to CNN, we should have a result from Wisconsin in the next 15-20 minutes.

 

[Infidel Castro]

No, in many cases the remaining votes will be from Democrat heavy constituencies. Does not mean Biden will win but you can't make the simple assumption above

Cheers - I was wondering how real the buffer is. They look like big numbers but if there's a huge skew to Dem on the postal vote, it's no gimme.

 

[Artaxerxes]

This election highlights how wrong the whole vote counting process is in USA. It really needs over hauling.

17th century voting system for a 20th century country.

All of it needs modernising.

 

[JTG]

Assuming a full count (yeah I know!) and knowing that a lot of those votes skew urban and by mail... not necessarily.
Fully prepared to be wrong yet again but there are hundreds of thousands of votes left in Philadelphia, Detroit, Atlanta and elsewhere

But, you know, lawyers

Even in NC where there's only c5% of the vote left to count, the counties that are noticeably low on counting so far (90-95%) are blue and urban (Charlotte, Fayetteville, Raleigh)

 

[Ted Striker]

Yeah.

AN is completely out of his depth here.

Point of order: AN is, to his credit, a titan of political TV (ask Boris, who pretty much cemented him in legend).

Just a shame he's a massive twat,, and genuine Nasty Piece Of Work. Oh, and a textbook bona fide bully.

 

[ManchesterBeth]

When is the penny going to drop for the left?

Never. If it did, they would cease to function as the political and really be a communist left in action. not going to happen.

 

[scifisam]

A former British ambassador to the US pointed out that it's rather stupid of Trump to call fraud in an election that he might well turn out to have won legitimately.

And Farage was going on and on about postal votes being unfair, though even he conceded that for this election, with the pandemic, they had to be allowed. I was annoyed that AN didn't say well, it doesn't matter what your opinion is, that's the system, so they still count.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Trump is losing support among white men but gaining support among minority groups. The ‘race’ meta-narrative barfed up by liberalism is embarrassingly wide of the mark:

 

[JTG]

A former British ambassador to the US pointed out that it's rather stupid of Trump to call fraud in an election that he might well turn out to have won legitimately.

And Farage was going on and on about postal votes being unfair, though even he conceded that for this election, with the pandemic, they had to be allowed. I was annoyed that AN didn't say well, it doesn't matter what your opinion is, that's the system, so they still count.

I mean, most western states are now on some form of all-mail elections and they work absolutely fine. The west has far fewer problems than the rest of the country

 

[NoXion]

This election highlights how wrong the whole vote counting process is in USA. It really needs over hauling.

If this was a UK general election they'd have finished counting the votes by now. Shit's fucked.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

According to CNN, we should have a result from Wisconsin in the next 15-20 minutes.

Given up on CNN. Their coverage is bonkers

 

[Ted Striker]

Hmm

Lincoln Project have been great entertainment, through this tbf, fighting the good fight. Methinks Mr Sirota is spoiling for a fight - He must be new to Twitter, it's really not the arena for tit-for-tats...

 

[scifisam]

It is also fucking ridiculous that they don't keep counting the votes all night. And in PE it might be a good idea to do like the other states and start counting the postal votes on election day, not after.

 

[JTG]

Lincoln Project have been great entertainment, through this tbf, fighting the good fight. Methinks Mr Sirota is spoiling for a fight - He must be new to Twitter, it's really not the arena for tit-for-tats...

They struck me as a right wing Led By Donkeys and they're fucking rubbish