US election 2020 thread

[strung out]

Good God

If it makes any difference, the remaining swing states Biden needs to win are the ones he always had a much better shot at. If they'd been called first instead of last, we could all be back in bed toasting a Biden victory by now.

 

[redsquirrel]

Sorry but all this chat about the EC not mattering is silly. The EC is everything, it determines who wins. That's it.

No one has said that the EC does not matter.
But you are confusing elections with politics. Does it not matter than the RN/FN manage to get into the second round of French election? Does if not matter that AfD were not polling well in Germany? That the BNP, UKIP, BXP did not take votes?
Populist radical right parties are growing but in most cases they are not 'winning' in the west. To follow your logic is to make that growth nothing as the electoral is everything and the political nothing.

 

[Yossarian]

Just woke up to see that Trump seems to be winning all the swing states. Is he actually on course to win this??

It's going to be a close one, and all his groundwork getting conservative judges confirmed, fucking with the US Postal Service, and casting doubt on postal voting might pay off - America would probably be COVID-free if he'd approached the pandemic with the same level of foresight and careful planning.

 

[redsquirrel]

A lot more votes to come in though. He'll have a higher proportion of the electorate by the final count. More total votes (as proportion of electorate) just suggests voters aren't 'turned off'.

I was referring to 2016 data, too early to say for 2020

 

[bimble]

You saw how many Brits voted for the openly racist Johnson right?

that would be your main conclusion from this, that half of americans are racists?

 

[Ted Striker]

To try and look at the scenarios dispassionately...I'd probably rather be Biden that Trump with a view to winning the EC. But we're all still processing that it has come to this, so rational analysis is nigh on impossible.

 

[kabbes]

Based on the Guardian’s map and looking at votes won so far in the undeclared states, it’s looking like north of 280 EC votes for Trump. There’s going to have to be some big late reversals in some key states to avoid it. Any reason to expect that to happen?

 

[JTG]

Fox has projected NE-2 for Biden. So that's one vote flipped

 

[Dogsauce]

Maybe Trump will win, but stop being an asshole afterwards, as it’s only the winning that counts for him and there’s no other battle to fight after this, so he can sit smug on his throne feeling satisfied then start pushing for socialised medicine and gun control.

 

[Ted Striker]

Based on the Guardian’s map and looking at votes won so far in the undeclared states, it’s looking like north of 280 EC votes for Trump. There’s going to have to be some big late reversals in some key states to avoid it. Any reason to expect that to happen?

Yes. PA has 2.5m postal votes to count, with (iirc) a 600k deficit. The postal votes are assumed to strongly favour Biden.

 

[JTG]

Based on the Guardian’s map and looking at votes won so far in the undeclared states, it’s looking like north of 280 EC votes for Trump. There’s going to have to be some big late reversals in some key states to avoid it. Any reason to expect that to happen?

Most of Georgia's uncounted votes are in Fulton & Gwinnett counties - the Atlanta metro - and are mostly early ballots. Which makes them extremely likely to break heavily for Joe Biden

 

[kabbes]

Well isn’t this fun.

 

[JTG]

Yes. PA has 2.5m postal votes to count, with (iirc) a 600k deficit. The postal votes are assumed to strongly favour Biden.

Ditto Michigan. Also Wisconsin's biggest and most Democratic city - Milwaukee - is going to be reporting dead last in the state

 

[Johnny Vodka]

Fuck's sake, was all looking good when I checked at 3am. Now pretty tense. Loads of good votes passing with regards to liberalising drug laws in various states tho.

 

[bimble]

really glad i booked a table in a pub this evening.

 

[maomao]

that would be your main conclusion from this, that half of americans are racists?

About a quarter to a third. And Brits.

 

[JTG]

Most of Georgia's uncounted votes are in Fulton & Gwinnett counties - the Atlanta metro - and are mostly early ballots. Which makes them extremely likely to break heavily for Joe Biden

Just to expand on this - the NYT dial was earlier pointing at a GOP win in GA but the metrics were influenced a fair bit by what was happening in neighbouring FL & NC. Now they've seen enough votes from Atlanta they rate him as an extremely slim favourite. He needs the remaining ballots to go 70% his way but that is very possible

 

[kabbes]

I guess I shouldn’t be shocked. We all said when the Dems picked Biden that they’d fucked it. In the end, Trump did his best to implode. But that doesn’t detract from the fact that the Democrats picked a wet paper bag as a contender. Hence potentially losing again to a blistering tit.

 

[William of Walworth]

JTG : Any idea of the timescale for Arizona -- what (UK) time might we know?

Are you confident?

 

[ManchesterBeth]

it's hardly as if Biden is dwarfing Trump in the PV, so it still is possible he could lose it.

 

[JTG]

Ho hum

 

[Artaxerxes]

Absolute fucking shit show.

 

[Ted Striker]

liberalising drug laws in various states tho.

They will need them.

(But seriously, can you make a list of Pirate friendly states. we could do a road trip... Easy Rider 2: Mcat and Motorbikes)

 

[JTG]

it's hardly as if Biden is dwarfing Trump in the PV, so it still is possible he could lose it.

CA still has a third of its votes to count. He will not lose the PV

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

Oh look, all the landslide predictions were wrong, who could possibly have predicted that eh?

 

[maomao]

I was referring to 2016 data, too early to say for 2020

They were turned off in 2016. A rigged Dem candidate versus a reality TV star. Trump's an actual politician now.

 

[bimble]

what the fuck is it that can account for this sort of thing ?


the last time a republican won that place seems to have been 1920.

 

[JTG]

JTG : Any idea of the timescale for Arizona -- what (UK) time might we know?

Are you confident?

No idea, sorry. 21% of the vote still left to count and he's up by six points. Seeing some conflicting info about what/where these votes are

 

[William of Walworth]

Oh look, all the landslide predictions were wrong, who could possibly have predicted that eh?

I was sceptical about landslide, but I really thought the Dems would do better in Florida

 

[Yossarian]

Ho hum

Looking good for Herman Cain in 2024.