US election 2020 thread
- Thread starter petee
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Ted Striker
Foot's on the other hand
The 538 explanation will be a piece of writing for the ages. Yet still he'll be the gospel in 2024 on Trump (Ivanka) vs Clinton (Hilary)
We can discount the theory that running a corpse as candidate is what fucked the Biden campaign
tbf it's not just Silver - it appears to be almost the entire polling industry, without which he has nothing else to go on other than vibes
The vibes people appear to have been slightly more accurate at this stage
ManchesterBeth
Well-Known Member
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
ManchesterBeth
Well-Known Member
what with the burst pipes this could look iffy for DJT
Yes exactly. Pretty sure I made the same point waaaay upthread somewhere - they fix the last problem. And encounter new ones. And high turnout being universally good for Dems was an assumption that held water until it didn't...
ManchesterBeth
Well-Known Member
Biden to ABC's Robin Roberts: 'I don't want to defund' the police, but Trump does
fucthest8
Cool people die horrible, preventable deaths.
Is that premature?
Well, it still may be, with only 80% ish counted ...who bloody knows? Suspect we're still going to be waiting for a complete result - for the whole thing - come next Wednesday
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
Democrats should probably have run on a platform of more than "Biden, this guys not Trump (again)"
ATOMIC SUPLEX
Member Since: 1985 Post Count: 3
That is truly insane. There is really something wrong with that country . . . The world even.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
I'm not sure people should be writing the polls off completely (except for FL that was a miss). GA still looks to be a toss-up, the margin in NH was only slightly too Biden, polling for NE-2 looks to be pretty good. Could end up being very wrong but it is also possible that by the time the final, final tallies are in there is less error than the earlier data indicated.
That's +/- 300k votes left to count and almost all in Atlanta. Biden needs them to go 2-1 to him
Could be. Margins can be tight - I think the miss on the national vote share last time was half a point too high for Hillary and 1.5 points too low for Trump. They weren't that far off, whatever people's perception
strung out
💩 🤣 🍆 💦 🧐 👻 🐝 🐈⬛
To be fair, if Georgia does go blue (just two points in it now - 350,000 votes left to count and 120,000 behind), and Biden wins the remaining swing states that he's favoured in, then it's a pretty comfortable win for Biden - 307 electoral college votes to 231. That would make 538's predictions pretty bang on. Even if Trump does pull it out of the bag, 538 always said that there was a 12% chance of the polls being wrong and Trump winning. There are certainly a few other pollsters and modellers that will have questions to answer though...
Shippou-Sensei
4:1:2.5
Everyone has a world view but it is impressive the blinkers you may gain as a US citizen.
No it doesn't good point
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Ohio counts votes up until the 14th. I'm unsure how different news outlets are accounting for those late votes in their % complete tally but it is quite possible that they are excluding them so there could be a movement there.
EDIT: Though OH still odds on to be a bad miss I agree
EDIT2: And polling for MN looks to have been pretty decent.
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Ted Striker
Foot's on the other hand
Yep, fair point. I just think it renders his whole industry irrelevant or fundamentally unfit for purpose. Its the 'sell' that they had the worlds best data scientists working on this (which is very real - you can tell by the visualisations if nothing else). But they were way off. Again. I guess they only reporting/aggregating/weighting polls, which in essence are relying on what people tell them (which were all fairly aligned). Similar to the rating agencies post 08 crash.
Shippou-Sensei
4:1:2.5
I spent some time in non urban michigan and this is a reminder of the world view they have.
When i was there i tried to find a bureau de change. No one know what I was talking about. I even used the term money exchange.l It wasn't a thing banks even thought of. I was living with my girlfriend who worked in a bank as a loan supervisor and even she did not recognise a money exchange as a thing I might be interested in.
I will remind you this state shares a border with fucking canada.
I know the terms Bureau de change wheshel and cambio. even though the euro has rendered most of those terms moot.
american is amazingly insular.
don't even get me started on the racism
When i was there i tried to find a bureau de change. No one know what I was talking about. I even used the term money exchange.l It wasn't a thing banks even thought of. I was living with my girlfriend who worked in a bank as a loan supervisor and even she did not recognise a money exchange as a thing I might be interested in.
I will remind you this state shares a border with fucking canada.
I know the terms Bureau de change wheshel and cambio. even though the euro has rendered most of those terms moot.
american is amazingly insular.
don't even get me started on the racism
beesonthewhatnow
going deaf for a living
No, they’ve always been there, in exactly the same way they’re here too. Think this can’t happen here and it’s just a USA thing? Give it a few more years.
Ted Striker
Foot's on the other hand
Wtf is all the count pausing for? They have the completed votes, no? Have you all got something better to do or not want to lay on rotating staff? (I think postals can still be received for another few days in PA?)
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