Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

Ukraine: Unsubstantiated rumours and speculation

I don't see in that how 10 days is calculated. The underlying logic has to be correct. This isn't a war that Russia can sustain indefinitely. But if we don't know the exact state of things, how can we make such an exact prediction?
We're not the ones making the predictions. Being an ex-commanding general of US European forces, I imagine he's well learned on the Russian military as a requirement of the job. And the prediction was conditional. So he knows it may not end up like that.
 
We're not the ones making the predictions. Being an ex-commanding general of US European forces, I imagine he's well learned on the Russian military as a requirement of the job. And the prediction was conditional. So he knows it may not end up like that.
It was a general "we". He does seem to be making a fairly precise short-term prediction without precise knowledge of the underlying conditions. Whatever his experience or qualifications, there's an obvious problem there, even if he is fundamentally right in that Russia has limited time.
 
It’s been reported that the Syrian troops and private military contractors will be used to police/pacify occupied territories, freeing up troops in those areas to take part in offensive action. Could be pretty grim having foreign fighters and shifty mercenaries with little shared culture and a background of brutality facing local protests etc.
 
It was a general "we". He does seem to be making a fairly precise short-term prediction without precise knowledge of the underlying conditions. Whatever his experience or qualifications, there's an obvious problem there, even if he is fundamentally right in that Russia has limited time.
That's all we need is another problem.
 
Latest MOD briefing probably belongs on this thread too.66D425F9-7488-4C6E-A2B4-11C86376D5E9.jpeg

It may well be exactly as they say (sending in troops from far away is a sign of desperate measures) but there’s also possibly a decision being made that soldiers from further away will be less squeamish about shooting into crowds of furious grandmothers, like on all those videos where the Russian soldiers look embarrassed and confused confronted by crowds in the occupied areas. There’s a history of that, send in the people who don’t share a language with or have relatives in the country you’re trying to batter into submission and they’ll do a more efficient job.
 
Last edited:
I don't see in that how 10 days is calculated. The underlying logic has to be correct. This isn't a war that Russia can sustain indefinitely. But if we don't know the exact state of things, how can we make such an exact prediction?

It's based on the assumption that people are making rational decisions based on good information, which they're almost certainly not. Putin doesn't seem like the sort to take bad news well, so the reports he gets are likely to be sugar-coated.

Spending two decades dismantling the very concept of objective truth may turn out to have undesirable consequences. Who knew.
 
It's based on the assumption that people are making rational decisions based on good information, which they're almost certainly not. Putin doesn't seem like the sort to take bad news well, so the reports he gets are likely to be sugar-coated.

Spending two decades dismantling the very concept of objective truth may turn out to have undesirable consequences. Who knew.
yep this, that man saying that the Russian offensive with 'culminate' in 10 days what does that actually mean, even if it is the case that in ten days the soldiers are left with no food and no fuel freezing their arses off that doesn't necessarily translate into them being ordered to withdraw and go home to their families does it.
 
yep this, that man saying that the Russian offensive with 'culminate' in 10 days what does that actually mean, even if it is the case that in ten days the soldiers are left with no food and no fuel freezing their arses off that doesn't necessarily translate into them being ordered to withdraw and go home to their families does it.
Mind, they'd have trouble staying where they were in those circumstances, especially once the ammo ran out too.
 
The war will likely be settled in ten days with a ceasefire agreement and settlement on Russian terms.
Define Russian terms. They may possibly secure independence for Donetsk and Luhansk, albeit the citizens of those regions will be even more anti Russian than they were before, but the thought of Russia securing much more than that is laughable given the state of things at the moment.
 
Back
Top Bottom