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Ukraine: Unsubstantiated rumours and speculation

Russia's Wagner group has been involved with CAR for some time, against French backed groups and jihadists iirc. Idris2002 kebabking might know more.
Best recent thing on the Wagner group ("Waggies"?) in Africa:


E2A: OK, that one's paywalled. Have a cut and paste odyssey:
Africa Russian mercenaries leave trail of destruction in the Central African Republic Mineral-rich country is ‘perfect laboratory’ for Wagner group as Kremlin extends influence in Africa © Ashley Gilbertson/eyevine Share on twitter (opens new window) Share on facebook (opens new window) Share on linkedin (opens new window) Neil Munshi in Bangui and Max Seddon in Moscow October 22 2021 290 Print this page Receive free Africa updates We’ll send you a myFT Daily Digest email rounding up the latest Africa news every morning. When the tattooed Russian fighters arrived in Alindao, a town in the southern Central African Republic (CAR), the rebels fled — and the people rejoiced. “They were white. They were very big,” said Fatima, 32. “They looked so strange, they had tattoos everywhere — snakes, skulls, human heads . . .[but] they were going to help.” But soon stories began circulating from nearby villages — of looting and torture, killings and rape. Then one day last month they took Fatima’s brother from their home. The next, they took her to a nearby military camp, where she says three of them raped her until she lost consciousness. “They were very scary — we were all so scared,” she said. “We thought they came here to restore peace to our country. Now I wish they’d never come.” The mercenaries who attacked Alindao belong to a Kremlin-linked network of companies known as the Wagner Group that has helped president Faustin-Archange Touadéra beat back rebels and saved his government, according to security, humanitarian, diplomatic and opposition sources in the CAR. The US accuses Evgeny Prigozhin, a caterer known as Russian president Vladimir Putin’s “chef,” of bankrolling Wagner — accusations he has long denied. Sources say the group has up to 3,000 armed fighters in the country. Russia says it has some 1,100 unarmed military trainers in the CAR, part of a deal Moscow inked with Bangui in 2018. The deployment has given Russia a foothold in the region, seizing on widespread resentment at former colonial power France and using it as a template for its expansion into other troubled neighbouring countries such as Mali. But it has also prompted allegations of human rights abuses at the UN security council. The unofficial links to Wagner have given Moscow plausible deniability, analysts say. With a long history of instability, coups and armed insurrection, the CAR is for Wagner, as one diplomat in Bangui put it, “a perfect laboratory”. Here, said the diplomat, they could “show what they can do in order to sell it to other countries” eager to put down their own insurrections. Wagner’s involvement also allows Moscow to regain some of the cold war-era influence it has lost in Africa in recent decades, while antagonising the west at low political and monetary cost, according to experts who study the group. Along the way, the mercenaries have taken over gold and diamond mining areas, targeted Muslim and Fulani ethnic minorities, and had multiple altercations with members of the 15,000-strong UN peacekeeping mission, Minusca. “They have completely changed the equation on the ground,” said a security source in Bangui. “The operating environment is just ideal for them, there is no real state and you have quite a toothless government that was really looking for a way out and found it in these mercenaries.” In written answers to questions the Financial Times sent to Prigozhin’s catering company about Wagner’s operations in the CAR, Alexander Ivanov, head of the Officers’ Union for International Security, said that there were not “large numbers of Russian mercenaries” in the CAR and the Russian instructors — which the Kremlin says it sent — were not involved in any fighting or commercial activity. Activist Gervais Lakasso near the national stadium in the capital city of Bangui Much as he is angry at Russian abuses, activist Gervais Lakasso says he is glad French influence has decreased © Clément Di Roma/FT Turning away from France Wagner has already found willing customers for its services across Africa, including Mozambique, Madagascar, Sudan — and Libya, where the UN accused them of allegedly committing possible war crimes. Its next client may be Mali, an ex-French colony where the ruling military junta has suggested hiring 1,000 Wagner paramilitaries after Paris announced it would halve its 5,000-troop presence fighting the jihadist insurgency roiling the Sahel. The Malian junta fears that a French withdrawal or downsizing could make insecurity worse, and is seeking “other partners”. There are echoes here of the CAR’s experience. Bangui turned to Russia when France pulled troops out after a three-year mission that failed to quell a bloody civil war. France’s reputation in the CAR — and in other former colonies including Mali — is so low that even those who condemn the Russian presence see some small silver lining. “I’m very happy that the French influence has shrunk and is getting smaller,” said Gervais Lakasso, an artist and activist in Bangui. “[It is] one of the biggest things that makes Touadéra popular.” A Russian armoured personnel carrier driving in a street in Bangui A Russian armoured personnel carrier is seen during the delivery of armoured vehicles in 2020 © Camille Laffont/AFP via Getty Images ‘They can’t control them’

CAR has had some very serious security challenges in recent years, with Muslim communities getting atrocitied by Christian militias, and vice versa. See here:


Source is a Washington Blob component, but their setting out of the facts looks good.

So maybe some bright spark thought that "a handful of hard men" might help, even if they were muscle for hire. Well, Machiavelli had their number centuries ago.
 
Rest of that FT piece:

The Russian presence is visible in Bangui, where armed fighters dressed in fatigues ride around in bulletproof military trucks. Russian fighters help guard the president, whose national security adviser had long been Valery Zakharov, a former Russian intelligence officer.

Yet prime minister Henri-Marie Dondra denied the presence of Russian mercenaries. “We have not signed a contract with private companies, we have a contract with Russia,” he told the FT. “We have a bilateral co-operation agreement which is very clear.”

He added that to his knowledge “there are no other forces that are present” beyond Russian, UN or Rwandan troops also in the country on a bilateral agreement.

Russia’s foreign ministry said Moscow’s instructors were operating in the country legally and had helped “the CAR’s army significantly increase its fighting capacity, as a result of which its units have inflicted significant casualties on fighters of various illegal armed groups”.

But Sorcha MacLeod, member of the UN human rights council’s working group on mercenaries, said Russians and affiliated foreigners “are involved in human rights violations, they are potentially involved in war crimes”.

Dondra insisted that “whenever there have been abuses, as soon as the government is informed, we immediately start an investigation,” noting that the majority are committed by armed groups.

Last month, the CAR government released a report acknowledging for the first time that Russian instructors had committed human rights abuses. But Russia’s foreign ministry said it had not been informed: “If the insinuations about their atrocities had any real foundation, and the local population was actively protesting, the CAR’s leadership would hardly have insisted on the further presence of specialists from Russia,” it said.
An aide helps prime minister Henri-Marie Dondra clean his jacket before photoshoot
CAR Prime Minister Henri-Marie Dondra says no private security firms are present in CAR © Clément Di Roma/FT

Foreign officials, opposition figures and civil society members argue that the government is, to one degree or another, captured by Wagner, which it depends on for its security and status in power. “I think [the government] made a deal with someone and now they don’t know how to handle it,” said one foreign official in Bangui. “They can’t control them.”

It is unclear how Russian fighters are being paid for their services. Wagner-linked companies including the US-sanctioned outfits Lobaye Invest and others have made inroads in the CAR’s mining sector. Some opposition figures and foreign officials suggest it is one way the government compensates them.

With international donors, led by the EU and the World Bank, providing roughly half of the country’s $400m annual budget, “we can’t rule out that donor money is going towards paying them”, said a foreign official in Bangui.

“In a way, the [EU] and the World Bank are paying the mercenaries, which is a very awkward position to be in,” another diplomat in Bangui said.

Ivanov said the Russian instructors had “no relation to seizing control of gold and diamond extraction”. Prigozhin’s Patriot media group said Lobaye Invest worked in the CAR legally and said the officials who suggested Russian forces were being paid from western donor funds “should be prosecuted for libel and expelled from the CAR”.
‘No rules’

On May 30, Denise Brown, the number-two UN official in Minusca, travelled to an area near the border with Chad to investigate alleged human rights violations by the national army.

A public UN report notes only that “bilaterally deployed and other security personnel obstructed the access of a United Nations delegation led by” Brown.
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Poland balks at EU sanction threats, Russian mercenaries in the Central African Republic

But four sources familiar with the incident said that when Brown and her delegation landed in a helicopter, the Russian paramilitaries trained AK-47s on the group — a sign of the impunity with which they operate in the CAR.

“This is a shit show,” said one veteran security official in Bangui. “They have no rules. It’s completely different than anywhere else.”

Ivanov said he was unaware of the incident but suggested that Brown had failed to inform the CAR’s defence ministry of her travel “due to her ignorance” of local regulations and that “her unapproved flight could have been interpreted as a life-or-death threat” by personnel on the ground.

Multiple diplomats and humanitarians in Bangui warned it was only a matter of time before skirmishes between Russians and Minusca erupted into real violence.
An Imam from the town of Bria describes looting and theft by Russian mercenaries
An imam from the town of Bria describes looting and theft by Russian mercenaries © Clément Di Roma/FT

Meanwhile, civilians are bearing the brunt. In PK5, the Muslim enclave of Bangui, victims of Russian brutality are easy to find — more arrive every day.

“We have experienced all sorts of rebellions over the years, from all armed groups, and then the Russians came in and made it even worse,” said a 66-year-old imam from the mining town of Bria. “It’s complete chaos — we had no choice but to flee.”

Mercenaries had stolen his CFA Fr6m ($10,600) savings and were stealing anything they can get their hands on: old clothes, jerry cans, water bottles, the sundry possessions of the poorest people on earth. He wondered: “What do they need with our old trousers?”

“The first time they came, I was very happy, we all were — finally our suffering from the armed groups will end because they’re here to help the government and save us,” he said. “But eventually we realised [what] they were doing . . . and we ran for our lives.”
 
The BBC is reporting that Ukrainian officials say that the mayor of Melitopol may have been abducted by the Russians?
 
If I was a betting person I'd put money on Wagner not being a PMC like all the others, but a paramilitary wing of the Russian State.
But what does that mean about the nature of the Russian state, it's class character? Is the Russian federation a "degenerated bourgeois state"?

When I was in Piter all those years ago, I remember a East Euro colleague asking me if I knew anything about Mexico, because people were thinking at that point that the Mexican Institutional Revolutionary Party might be a model for the institutionalisation of the emerging post-Yeltsin order (it was clear at this point what sort of person VP was, at least to people like my colleague).

I said maybe, but you might get something more like the African Big Man model, in which ruling parties became structures for the distribution of "rents" and the accumulation of political power at the top through patronage by the Big Man at the top.

The trouble with the Big Man model is that eventually the Big Man has to die. When that occurs you get cases like, e.g., Ivory Coast after Felix Houphouet Boigny went to the great Bandung Conference in the sky. The regional inequalities produced by the (genuine) capitalist development of the country led to civil war.

Mexico may have got away from its own one-party state without full-scale civil war in that sense, but you also have massive human rights abuses, druglord private armies running wild, et cetera.

And these are cases where political leadership and patronage had institutional, regularised mechanisms. I think that whatever Putin has built in Russia is much more brittle, much less institutionalised than these other regimes. . .

The USSR survived the death of Stalin thanks to the existence of the party. There's no "Putinist Party of the Russian Federation". We all know about the regime having all its little front organizations, in the form of fake parties - but what if there's little or nothing behind those fronts?
 
frogwoman - is the Wagner group a zen koan?


Thanks for posting, slightly misleading headline, as it explains the Wagner Group does exist, just not as a single company, but a network of businesses & groups.

The first thing to understand about the Wagner Group is that there most likely is no Wagner Group. As far as researchers can tell, there is no single registered business called Wagner. Rather, the name has come to describe a network of businesses and groups of mercenaries that have been linked by overlaps in ownership and logistics networks. Entities making up the network have been described in sanctions designations by the U.S. Treasury as being involved in a wide range of activities, including working to suppress pro-democracy protests, spreading disinformation, mining for gold and diamonds, and engaging in paramilitary activity.

Paywall busted link - archive.ph
 
No idea what thread this should go in but I found it quite funny. My boss has dispatched his chauffeur to Poland with 10k in cash and a wagonload of supplies from Boots. And he's asking for suggestions for his playlist for the journey. Sorry, a bit pissed but I did lol at this. I guess it's quite sweet in a fucked up kinda way. That he has a chauffeur for starters. Any suggestions for the valiant man's playlist?
 
No idea what thread this should go in but I found it quite funny. My boss has dispatched his chauffeur to Poland with 10k in cash and a wagonload of supplies from Boots. And he's asking for suggestions for his playlist for the journey. Sorry, a bit pissed but I did lol at this. I guess it's quite sweet in a fucked up kinda way. That he has a chauffeur for starters. Any suggestions for the valiant man's playlist?
 
No idea what thread this should go in but I found it quite funny. My boss has dispatched his chauffeur to Poland with 10k in cash and a wagonload of supplies from Boots. And he's asking for suggestions for his playlist for the journey. Sorry, a bit pissed but I did lol at this. I guess it's quite sweet in a fucked up kinda way. That he has a chauffeur for starters. Any suggestions for the valiant man's playlist?



Leonard Cohen - The Partisan
 
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