Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[emanymton]

Except of course it might serve to massively increase their support in Ukraine

That's it take what tiny bit of silver lining I could see and tear it up before my eyes.

 

[CyberRose]

I'm not sure this is a great look when you claim to the world you're trying to 'denazify' Ukraine...



200,000 Russians attended a pro-war rally in Moscow

(Not to agree with the comment "it's not just Putin that's the problem")

 

[elbows]

For those feeling utterly depressed by the pessimistic posts above, this is a really good article from Lawrence Freedman (an actual expert, rather than an internet expert, on strategy, Russia, and failed military operations - he was a member of the Iraq Inquiry) about the cost to Russia, and how virtually any gain they might realise from here will have come at a terrible and high cost to them: The Bankrupt Colonialist

Have copied the opening paragraph and conclusions for those who'd rather read it here.

I'll use this article to make my current point again....

Much of the article is hinged upon what we are invited to think Putins aims are, which are then used to demonstrate how he has failed and how crazy and illogical his actions have been. And yet a full description of all his aims are not actually laid out properly in the article. A few are referred to implicitly or explicitly, but there are some gaping holes which that piece then exploits.

When I mentioned cold calculations in my previous post, I'm very much including sphere of influence grand chessboard shit, and the considerations of realpolitik. That shit is real, and it would take a new revolution of power in how humans organise across the globe and think about all manner of things in order to see the back of it. And yet so many articles and indeed our own posts have a very awkward relationship with that shit. Sometimes it is acknowledged, but sometimes it is the invisible man, or is conveniently hidden in the stained underpants of general haplessness. Or dressed smartly but bogusly in the clothes of noble aims and moral righteousness. It is conveniently mistaken for a madman, a miscalculation, propaganda is taken literally in order to provide cover and distraction.

 

[Chz]

I'm not sure this is a great look when you claim to the world you're trying to 'denazify' Ukraine...



200,000 Russians attended a pro-war rally in Moscow

(Not to agree with the comment "it's not just Putin that's the problem")

Putin's control of the media is not very far off from China or North Korea. It's difficult to blame the people when they're so comprehensively brainwashed.
Add to that the ingrained, traditional Russian paranoia of the Outside World being Out To Get Them and you get that.

 

[emanymton]

I think when people first started to say that things where not going as planned for Russia it was right to call into question how we could be certain of that. But I think it is becoming increasingly obvious that things are not going as they expected.

I doubt it was in their initial plans to have to call up thousands of Syrians or to have to move troops from Georgia let alone having to go cap in hand to China asking for rations to feed their troops. Just how far off plan is more difficult to say, and that doesn't mean things cannot be turned around for them. By all accounts they are operating a lot more effectively now than at the start.

At some point Russia will probably have a significant victory and how the 2 sides react to that could maybe matter a great deal.

 

[Cid]

I'm not sure this is a great look when you claim to the world you're trying to 'denazify' Ukraine...



200,000 Russians attended a pro-war rally in Moscow

(Not to agree with the comment "it's not just Putin that's the problem")

There's a fair bit of reporting saying public employees, students etc were 'encouraged' to attend. e.g:

 

[CyberRose]

Putin's control of the media is not very far off from China or North Korea. It's difficult to blame the people when they're so comprehensively brainwashed.
Add to that the ingrained, traditional Russian paranoia of the Outside World being Out To Get Them and you get that.

Yes, the post wasn't intended to blame the people

 

[Chz]

Yes, the post wasn't intended to blame the people

Sorry, I know you went to pains to specifically point that out. But my comment made more sense with the video than it did to the parent post on Putin not being the only problem.

 

[frogwoman]

That's only been true for the last few weeks.

Putin's control of the media is not very far off from China or North Korea. It's difficult to blame the people when they're so comprehensively brainwashed.
Add to that the ingrained, traditional Russian paranoia of the Outside World being Out To Get Them and you get that.

 

[Chz]

That's only been true for the last few weeks.

I disagree. The past few weeks have been as bad as China or North Korea. It was only approaching that level before now. There've been quite a number of anti-Putin types who've just up and vanished in the past few years - we only see and hear about the important ones.

 

[frogwoman]

I disagree. The past few weeks have been as bad as China or North Korea. It was only approaching that level before now. There've been quite a number of anti-Putin types who've just up and vanished in the past few years - we only see and hear about the important ones.

Oh for real. I just think the 'not as bad' part is yet another way he controls the public.

 

[CyberRose]

Sorry, I know you went to pains to specifically point that out. But my comment made more sense with the video than it did to the parent post on Putin not being the only problem.

A fair point. I did add that comment as an edit as I checked out the Twitter account I posted and it appears to be a fairly nationalist east european news source (hence their insistence on blaming the Russian people). My post was aimed at Putin for organising a pro-war rally

 

[frogwoman]

Like i heard both opposition and putin supporters say 'its not as bad as North korea'. And it's not- but that's deliberate.

 

[Pickman's model]

Putin's control of the media is not very far off from China or North Korea. It's difficult to blame the people when they're so comprehensively brainwashed.
Add to that the ingrained, traditional Russian paranoia of the Outside World being Out To Get Them and you get that.

We brainwash rather better in this country than I think they do in Russia

 

[Cid]

Putin's control of the media is not very far off from China or North Korea. It's difficult to blame the people when they're so comprehensively brainwashed.
Add to that the ingrained, traditional Russian paranoia of the Outside World being Out To Get Them and you get that.

I think you can overplay 'brainwashing'. People compartmentalise... There are true believers of course, but for the majority I think it's just 'get on with life'. If shit hits the fan in China, social media will fire up with speculation/division same as anywhere else. Just with somewhat more caution about how things are expressed. Of course the media environment does make a significant difference, particularly for those who don't have some workaround or other (VPN, friends etc), but it's not like people salute a picture of Xi before they go to bed every night.

 

[Chz]

No, but the overall effect - taken over the population as a whole - is a tendency to very strong nationalism and closing ranks against the Outsider. I'm sure a very healthy part of Russia or China have sceptical thoughts about their government. But, and big but, they still trust their own more than anyone else's. In a crisis they will come together, not splinter.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I see some colonel from the Guards Parachute Assault Regiment has been 'liquidated', along with his right hand man, a major and the Russians admit to a sergeant and corporal dead in the same incident. They seem to be losing a lot of high ranking officers and these kind of people don't die alone, tends to be a fair few squaddies will be killed for each officer. As the number of coffins returning to the motherland becomes a flood Putin's lies will become harder and harder for the ordinary folk to believe...

 

[Cid]

No, but the overall effect - taken over the population as a whole - is a tendency to very strong nationalism and closing ranks against the Outsider. I'm sure a very healthy part of Russia or China have sceptical thoughts about their government. But, and big but, they still trust their own more than anyone else's. In a crisis they will come together, not splinter.

I would say that depends very much on the nature of the crisis, and the lead up to it.

 

[brogdale]

Very large hats and snipers are a bad combination

Gary Cheeseman.

 

[strung out]

I see some colonel from the Guards Parachute Assault Regiment has been 'liquidated', along with his right hand man, a major and the Russians admit to a sergeant and corporal dead in the same incident. They seem to be losing a lot of high ranking officers and these kind of people don't die alone, tends to be a fair few squaddies will be killed for each officer. As the number of coffins returning to the motherland becomes a flood Putin's lies will become harder and harder for the ordinary folk to believe...

You might have already seen this, but Rob Lee is maintaining a twitter thread of all the Russian soldiers confirmed dead. Obviously there are far more then confirmed dead in the thread, but these are the ones to have been confirmed in Russia via news reports and/or public funerals, so tending to be the higher ranking soldiers.



This is a particularly noteworthy/deserved one, which might be the one you were referring to:

 

[friedaweed]

For those feeling utterly depressed by the pessimistic posts above, this is a really good article from Lawrence Freedman (an actual expert, rather than an internet expert, on strategy, Russia, and failed military operations - he was a member of the Iraq Inquiry) about the cost to Russia, and how virtually any gain they might realise from here will have come at a terrible and high cost to them: The Bankrupt Colonialist

Have copied the opening paragraph and conclusions for those who'd rather read it here.

Good read that. Cheers for posting.

 

[SpackleFrog]

That's it take what tiny bit of silver lining I could see and tear it up before my eyes.

Sorry. Should have kept my mouth shut. Unfortunately it had already occurred to me that the Ukrainian state would have less use for the Azov battalion if the fighting in Donbas was over, but that that might have some unforeseen consequences of its own.

Realistically whatever happens the fascist presence in Ukraine and the even greater fascist presence in Russia is something to be really fucking worried about.

 

[_Russ_]

He ‘gets away with it’ because a majority of posters on here like him and respect his opinions, even if not agreeing with all of them . Unlike others who perform the role of annoying comic relief.

Not sure about this majority.
One thing that really stands out in here is the use of likes, people joust with them and some use them in a rather revealing way

I.E., just the other day I noticed someone not in favour here post a reasonable thought...nobody gave him a like...his post was immediately followed by a post from one of cool guys that simply agreed with the previous post..that one got likes, (from the other cool guys of course)
Its playground politics

 

[Leighsw2]

... and so we can go round in circles about this stuff and related issues ....

Yes, I've noticed a lot of that on this thread.

 

[Sue]

Not sure about this majority.
One thing that really stands out in here is the use of likes, people joust with them and some use them in a rather revealing way

I.E., just the other day I noticed someone not in favour here post a reasonable thought...nobody gave him a like...his post was immediately followed by a post from one of cool guys that simply agreed with the previous post..that one got likes, (from the other cool guys of course)
Its playground politics

Tbh, analysing likes feels kind of playground.

 

[two sheds]

and some people you just don't want to encourage

 

[Leighsw2]

....conveniently hidden in the stained underpants of general haplessness. Or dressed smartly but bogusly in the clothes of noble aims and moral righteousness ...

I think we've probably gone far enough with these metaphors.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Potentially something a bit dodgy about that rally by the way.

 

[Dogsauce]

We brainwash rather better in this country than I think they do in Russia

They rally behind a competent strongman nationalist (current conflict excepted)

This country rallies behind an incompetent lackadaisical nationalist.

Who exactly are the fools?

 

[JimW]

I think we've probably gone far enough with these metaphors.

Stumbled into the literary jumble sale of musty tweed topcoats, as it were.