Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[bimble]

There is actually loads of wiggle room in my stance in terms of what I might choose to believe about how rational he is. Nor have I claimed that it was a great move for him that cannot possible backfire on him. But I have said that it is possible to explain this war without needing to include a storyline where Putin has gone mad.

Although many aspects of this war are about Putin, its still not all just about one person, he didnt just personally draw up a military plan one afternoon for this war that involved half a tank wandering into Kyiv unopposed. The people doing all the tedious planning can and probably will make loads of mistakes of various forms in their planning, but they've still got more knowledge of their capabilities and what might actually be within the bounds of possibility, and that includes the timescales for potential victory. Putin will have influenced their plans and may even have meddled in the detail of them. They could even be naive in ways that could result in numerous comedies of error. Their experience in other conflicts may still have left them woefully unprepared for this particular invasion against this sort of foe. I dont exclude these possibilities, but I'm not going to treat them as a certainty, or start making wild claims about Putin becoming so desperate this quickly that he actually intends to use nuclear weapons. The nuclear rhetoric is a warning to other nations about where some the red lines are, a reminder of where escalation ultimately leads to when it involves nuclear powers.

All of that makes sense.
If there’s no real reason to think the war is going worse than he expected it to, what’s the explanation for him escalating to the raise nuclear readiness rhetoric on day 3 though- apparently in response to sanctions & mean words- I mean why not keep that in reserve?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Not necessarily. OFCOM has the only juristiction over the UK now following Brexit. The equivalency that existed before between EU/UK licenses is no longer a thing.

That said, while I'm no fan of RT it must be OFCOM who takes the decision in accordance with its own guidelines. And that must be totally independent of government pressure or it could have knock on implications far wider (not to mention it just turns the UK into another Russia/China with regards to control over media).

You missed the point, RT transmits via the SES Astra satellites, the company is based in Luxembourg, so if as reported the EU is banning RT that could extend to require SES Astra satellites to cease carriage, that in turn means there will be no signal for Sky & Freesat boxes, and as they probably use that satellite feed to deliver the channel to other platforms*, such as Freeview & Virgin, again it would disappear.

If that happens, there's no decision for OFCOM to take, OFCOM doesn't own or control the satellites, nor does Sky or Freesat.

Of course, it would be still available 'on demand' if there's an app on certain smart TVs or Sky/Virgin boxes, there certainly isn't on my Freesat box, or otherwise fluffing around using some other kit connected to the internet, but if it disappears from linear tv, most of what little audience it has will disappear too.

* It is possible that they could feed other platforms from a non-EU owned satellite, or even the internet, but that would require the other platforms to make changes to their set-ups, that could involve needing different kit, which they could make difficult or even refuse. That wouldn't work with Sky/Freesat boxes connected to standard satellite dishes, which are positioned to receive signals only from the position where the SES Astra satellites are.

 

[cupid_stunt]

The rouble has recovered a bit, currently down 26% against the USD, the central bank has more than double their interest rate from 9.5% to 20%.

Ouch!

 

[Spymaster]

Good going here...

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Nah, it didn’t sink. Just got a bit wet inside apparently.

 

[bimble]

If the pilots are Ukrainian then this doesn’t count as direct intervention?

 

[strung out]

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If the pilots are Ukrainian then this doesn’t count as direct intervention?

Presumably the same as any other weapons and equipment supplied by Ukraine's allies?

I read that the Ukrainian pilots were leaving Ukraine to get the planes rather than them being brought in to Ukraine by British or EU pilots.

 

[Yossarian]

Nah, it didn’t sink. Just got a bit wet inside apparently.

Perhaps only a partial sinking, but he still gets full marks for effort.

 

[Pickman's model]

Good going here...

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Yeh I posted about this yesterday, 3461. This place gets ever more like the bbc

 

[Spymaster]

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If the pilots are Ukrainian then this doesn’t count as direct intervention?

Apparently not, though I’m not sure that Blofeld will see it that way. Also, the talk is of the package being worth 500 million Euros. That’s only 4 Eurofighters, though I suppose they could be giving them cheaper stuff.

 

[Pickman's model]

Apparently not, though I’m not sure that Blofeld will see it that way. Also, the talk is of the package being worth 500 million Euros. That’s only 4 Eurofighters, though I suppose they could be giving them cheaper stuff.

Are these eurofighters with the concrete or cannon?

 

[bimble]

I have absolutely no idea where the dodgy senator would have got this from or if it’s totally made up. But IF if it’s based on real info on what Russia was expecting that would explain a bit. He posted it yesterday.

 

[Pickman's model]

There's a load of auld shite in the news about the ruble collapsing to its lowest ever level against the dollar. It's 114 to the dollar. But at the end of 92 there were more than 400 rubles to the dollar. When I was in Russia in 2018 there were 80 to the pound, so it doesn't feel to me like we're really being told the truth about the situation there. Or the BBC can't remember the real collapse of the ruble in the 90s

 

[JimW]

I have absolutely no idea where the dodgy senator would have got this from or if it’s totally made up. But IF if it’s based on real info on what Russia was expecting that would explain a bit. He posted it yesterday.

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[Yossarian]

I have absolutely no idea where the dodgy senator would have got this from or if it’s totally made up. But IF if it’s based on real info on what Russia was expecting that would explain a bit. He posted it yesterday.

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Rubio's the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee so he's supposed to be getting the same information as the president, AFAIK.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Ukrainian troops have a message for Russians and it's a strong one.

Spoiler: Spoiler: Violent scenes, injuries, a lot of swearing

 

[bimble]

Rubio's the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee so he's supposed to be getting the same information as the president, AFAIK.

So maybe its true, or at least that's what the best-paid spies say that Putin expected to happen, in which case its all definitely gone not as planned.

 

[tim]

Yeh I posted about this yesterday, 3461. This place gets ever more like the bbc

Has Nadine Doris threatened to defund us again?

 

[Pickman's model]

Has Nadine Doris threatened to defund us again?

Defang defund and debonaire according to the last email I saw

 

[Spymaster]

All of that makes sense.
If there’s no real reason to think the war is going worse than he expected it to, what’s the explanation for him escalating to the raise nuclear readiness rhetoric on day 3 though- apparently in response to sanctions & mean words- I mean why not keep that in reserve?

Yeah, I disagree with elbows. It’s very clearly not going the way the Russians expected (see tons of dead Russian armour and troops for little gain after 4 days, no air superiority, a swiftness and decisiveness of international reaction that they clearly weren’t expecting, a full-on run on Russian banks, and now pre-written press releases which, if true, point loudly to the fact that this is a fuck-up). That’s not to say they may not get their shit together in the coming days but Putin threatening nuclear war can’t possibly be where they wanted to be 4 days after the invasion.

 

[platinumsage]

There's a load of auld shite in the news about the ruble collapsing to its lowest ever level against the dollar. It's 114 to the dollar. But at the end of 92 there were more than 400 rubles to the dollar. When I was in Russia in 2018 there were 80 to the pound, so it doesn't feel to me like we're really being told the truth about the situation there. Or the BBC can't remember the real collapse of the ruble in the 90s

Perhaps you don't remember that the current ruble is worth 1000 old pre-1998 rubles. So yes, it's at a lower level than in the early 90s.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Yeah, I disagree with elbows. It’s very clearly not going the way the Russia expected (see tons of dead Russian armour and troops for little gain after 4 days, no air superiority, a swiftness and decisiveness of international reaction that they clearly weren’t expecting. a full-on run on Russian banks, and now pre-written press releases which, if true, point very clearly to the fact that this is a fuck-up). That’s not to say they may not get their shit together in the coming days but Putin threatening nuclear war can’t possibly be where they wanted to be 4 days after the invasion.

And, if reports are believed, forcing Belarus to send in troops to help them to.

 

[mauvais]

Apparently not, though I’m not sure that Blofeld will see it that way. Also, the talk is of the package being worth 500 million Euros. That’s only 4 Eurofighters, though I suppose they could be giving them cheaper stuff.

They will probably be providing European-owned MiGs - Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria operated them at least until recently. One of them had Su-25s too.

Can't provide anything else really as there's no training.

 

[Yossarian]

So maybe its true, or at least that's what the best-paid spies say that Putin expected to happen, in which case its all definitely gone not as planned.

Just saw that Rubio also tweeted this a few days ago.

 

[chilango]

Where's all this EU "lethal aid" going to end up when the war's over? What rag-tag band of insurgents will come out if it all freshly armed and combat hardened?

 

[Spymaster]

Where's all this EU "lethal aid" going to end up when the war's over? What rag-tag band of insurgents will come out if it all freshly armed and combat hardened?

Depends on who wins.

 

[ska invita]

And, if reports are believed, forcing Belarus to send in troops to help them to.

I dont think thats out of desperation.....my reading of the Belarus troop action, plus their constitutional change to have nukes is that its part of drawing a clear new red line on what is the Russian 'empire' front line - its basically saying if theres no more buffer zone between Nato and Russia we're going to push the hot border back west. This would match the Biden talk of "re-establishing the Soviet Union".

 

[Yossarian]

What rag-tag band of insurgents will come out if it all freshly armed and combat hardened?

The legitimate Ukrainian government, possibly.

 

[Pickman's model]

Perhaps you don't remember that the current ruble is worth 1000 old pre-1998 rubles. So yes, it's at a lower level than in the early 90s.

There is much about 1998 I don't remember. And 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2002

 

[dilute micro]

The weather in Ukraine is supposed to be snowy Tues-Friday. I wonder how that might affect Russia's movements or air.

I have absolutely no idea where the dodgy senator would have got this from or if it’s totally made up. But IF if it’s based on real info on what Russia was expecting that would explain a bit. He posted it yesterday.

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"air dominance in first 12 hours" - shows that the Russian planners were absolutely clueless - not a big surprise though. And then after having seen that they didn't quite have air dominance, they didn't recommit to achieving it before going forward. They probably have time constraints and that overrode common sense.

"bypass...urban areas" - Now that the Russians have a huge column on the road coming into Kyiv, I wonder why the Ukrainians didn't anticipate it and blow sections of the roads up to force the tanks and trucks to rut into the mud and slow them down and use up fuel while they work it out.

 

[existentialist]

I have absolutely no idea where the dodgy senator would have got this from or if it’s totally made up. But IF if it’s based on real info on what Russia was expecting that would explain a bit. He posted it yesterday.

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What's not conjecture is pulled out of his arse.