Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[DaveCinzano]

The Hurt Locker, Ukrainian Dub

 

[Pickman's model]

Not quite the point though is it? We're told that Putin controls the media and information flows and that the people of Russia don't actually know what's going on. However, somehow the information that thousands of Russian troops are dying is getting through to Russians in Russia when it's not even being reported here.

The quality of reporting in Britain is abysmal

 

[Diamond]

Wow

The EU is transforming before our very eyes in this crisis.

Fascinating to see how the bloc's deep regulatory power (SWIFT) seems to be galvanising it to open up the possibility of it becoming a genuine international political power (arguably, it has not been so to date).

e2a - here's a better informed person than me expanding on the argument:

 

[skyscraper101]

And on that note, it'll interesting to see what happens to RT in the UK, whilst OFCOM issues their UK licence to be on various platforms, like Sky & Freesat, the actual transmissions are from Luxembourg owned & operated satellites, which I suspect they use as their feed for Freeview, Virgin, etc.

So, as the EU is banning RT, that could save OFCOM from even getting involved.

Not necessarily. OFCOM has the only juristiction over the UK now following Brexit. The equivalency that existed before between EU/UK licenses is no longer a thing.

That said, while I'm no fan of RT it must be OFCOM who takes the decision in accordance with its own guidelines. And that must be totally independent of government pressure or it could have knock on implications far wider (not to mention it just turns the UK into another Russia/China with regards to control over media).

 

[Dystopiary]

What would be better is if they took in refugees from Ukraine instead, like those African students. But they won't cos racism.

Totally agree with you there.

 

[bluescreen]

Again, not quite the point. We've been led to believe that this kind of information isn't getting through to ordinary Russians because Putin has total control of the media.

ETA: thought better of this.

 

[tim]

The men described are not goodies.

 

[MickiQ]

This one is a bit special - Ukrainian farmer seemingly making off with a Russian armoured vehicle that he's hitched to his tractor:

Who's the guy chasing it? I can just imagine him shouting "Come Back with my Fucking Tank, the captain will go mental if I lose it!"

 

[elbows]

This is very long and doesn’t answer my question. Idk what you mean by ‘the sort of shit you’re coming out with’ you’ll have to be more specific.

The sort of shit where you make assumptions about how Putin feels about the wars progress so far, and the chances of him using a nuclear weapon, by looking at the length of his furniture. The point in linking to the article was to illustrate something of what an article for public consumption that describes analysis of military capabilities and war capabilities looks like when applied to this particular invasion. Painting pictures that involve debunking the stuff that always appears in sections of the press or from certain talking heads talking shit about just how ridiculously quickly a particular conflict could be won, stuff that is often done to promote and justify the war before it starts.

War planning and decisions about war made by leaders can typically be full of mistakes, I certainly dont dispute that. And there are certainly examples where leaders got carried away with their perceptions of how mighty the forces under their control really were in relation to their opponents. But where that picture genuinely exists it tends to emerge only over time, and then it takes even more time for the full ramifications become clear, ie whether too many mistakes turns into defeat, a change of goals and plans, or just some additional parts of the plan being activated.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Wow

The EU is transforming before our very eyes in this crisis.

Fascinating to see how the bloc's deep regulatory power (SWIFT) seems to be galvanising it to open up the possibility of it becoming a genuine international political power (arguably, it has not been so to date).

e2a - here's a better informed person than me expanding on the argument:

Please put that away, some of the jizz from his tweets hit me in the face, i feel sick

 

[strung out]

Is that those Ukrainians who have been released from the French foreign legion to go back and fight?

 

[dilute micro]

So now countries are pulling their people out of Russia. Wrong thing to do, imo. Ratcheting up tensions isn't always Russia's doing. Just relax.

 

[RD2003]

'Remember when the news was boring?' said the character played by Rory Kinnear in that fairly recent BBC drama, the name of which currently escapes me.

 

[bimble]

The sort of shit where you make assumptions about how Putin feels about the wars progress so far, and the chances of him using a nuclear weapon, by looking at the length of his furniture. The point in linking to the article was to illustrate something of what an article for public consumption that describes analysis of military capabilities and war capabilities looks like when applied to this particular invasion. Painting pictures that involve debunking the stuff that always appears in sections of the press or from certain talking heads talking shit about just how ridiculously quickly a particular conflict could be won, stuff that is often done to promote and justify the war before it starts.

War planning and decisions about war made by leaders can typically be full of mistakes, I certainly dont dispute that. And there are certainly examples where leaders got carried away with their perceptions of how mighty the forces under their control really were in relation to their opponents. But where that picture genuinely exists it tends to emerge only over time, and then it takes even more time for the full ramifications become clear, ie whether too many mistakes turns into defeat, a change of goals and plans, or just some additional parts of the plan being activated.

Just repeating ourselves really, you assume he’s acting & will act perfectly rationally and has access to good realistic advice. I don’t think that. He wouldn’t have embarked on this if that were true imo.

 

[rekil]

At least we’d go laughing at Mr Ski’s and Bimble’s Brexit posts

Not before the bunker creep would bang on and on about how it's time to invest in nukecoin.

 

[TopCat]

Two top Russian billionaires speak out against war

Oleg Deripaska and Ukrainian-born Mikhail Fridman call for peace, as activities come under threat from sanctions

www.theguardian.com

 

[nogojones]

The Hurt Locker, Ukrainian Dub

fag on as well.

 

[gosub]

this is why twitter is not all bad.

Great films

 

[Sunray]

120 pages in sorry for tldr

I'm puzzled why the Ukrainians didn't wave them in like they were heros. Then when they aren't looking shoot them in the back?
If the Vietnamiese, the Irish and the Afganis have taught humanity, you can't win a guriella war. Endless body bags are a very good deterrent..

 

[elbows]

Not quite the point though is it? We're told that Putin controls the media and information flows and that the people of Russia don't actually know what's going on. However, somehow the information that thousands of Russian troops are dying is getting through to Russians in Russia when it's not even being reported here.

People in Russia know a thing or two about getting information from sources that dont toe the official line. As in any country the mainstream narratives still have a big impact on peoples understanding and knowledge of a situation, but people also know where to look when they dont trust the official sources to tell the whole story.

As others have pointed out a fair chunk of Ukraine war communications and propaganda has been in the form of specific claims about Russian losses. Such information cannot be taken at face value due to its propaganda role, but when no other numbers are available it will still end up forming part of peoples sense of the scale of things, and its the sort of news that really travels.

Russia didnt want to acknowledge any losses at all until today, and today they still put no numbers on anything. If they reach a stage of coming out with their own numbers, then people will be left to make guesses as to where the real truth can be found in the range between the official Russian figures and the figures about Russian losses that Ukraine comes out with.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Just repeating ourselves really, you assume he’s acting & will act perfectly rationally and has access to good realistic advice. I don’t think that. He wouldn’t have embarked on this if that were true imo.

I agree. I see no good way out of this for him. And that just gets worse by the day. There is no way the world is going to accept this as a fait accompli even if he manages to subdue Ukraine, which he appears to be a million miles away from doing atm. Even being super-optimistic (from his pov), I don't see any good outcome for him.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Had a light bulb moment. To threaten people with nuclear anhilation is pretty much the definition of being totally fucking insane.

 

[Spymaster]

Looks like the big stuff is on the way.

Three mile column of Russian armour heading towards Kiev.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Had a light bulb moment. To threaten people with nuclear anhilation is pretty much the definition of being totally fucking insane.

Yeah but the same applies to having them in the first place.

 

[RD2003]

Doesn't matter that it's Spiked

The peace that could have been

After the Cold War, the West had an opportunity to bring Russia into the fold.

www.spiked-online.com

 

[bluescreen]

Have we had this yet?
Thread from Bellingcat exec describing how Russian state media were all prepped with a story about the successful operation in Ukraine - that was then pulled and wiped as if never existed. But there are screengrabs. So perhaps there is some insight into Putin's assumptions after all, if the screengrabs are to be believed:

 

[Artaxerxes]

Looks like the big stuff is on the way.

Three mile column of Russian armour heading towards Kiev.

Jesus. Good luck to those in Kiev tonight.

 

[Pickman's model]

120 pages in sorry for tldr

I'm puzzled why the Ukrainians didn't wave them in like they were heros. Then when they aren't looking shoot them in the back?
If the Vietnamiese, the Irish and the Afganis have taught humanity, you can't win a guriella war. Endless body bags are a very good deterrent..

Er you can win a guerrilla war. To take just Latin America, two successful guerrilla wars (Cuba and Nicaragua) out of dozens of attempts. So don't talk bollocks pls

 

[CyberRose]

Where did this idea that Russia was expecting a quick victory come from? Were there any statements from Russian officials that suggested this is what they were expecting? Or did this come from 'experts' in the Western media/governments/militaries? (And could this have simply been for propaganda purposes by setting Russia unachievable aims then saying "it's not going to plan" when it obviously didn't go to "plan"?)

Don't get me wrong, having read Putin's article about how Ukrainians are essentially Russians, I don't doubt that there is a possibility that Putin might have considered that the Ukrainians (or at least their military) would surrender quickly, but has this expectation actually been documented from any Russian sources?

Edit: bluescreen may have just answered that as I was posting...

 

[Diamond]

Jesus. Good luck to those in Kiev tonight.

Actually, I think that with those Turkish drones, it's the people in the column that you should be concerned for.



This will be a test for them. Should the Ukrainians get a Baykratyar or two above that lot then the Russians will be in for a very hard time indeed.