RileyOBlimey
Well-Known Member
Looks a fat target for those Turkish drone.
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
Looks a fat target for those Turkish drone.
RileyOBlimey
Well-Known Member
Doesn't matter that it's Spiked
The peace that could have been
After the Cold War, the West had an opportunity to bring Russia into the fold.www.spiked-online.com
Are you sure it doesn’t matter?
elbows
Well-Known Member
There is actually loads of wiggle room in my stance in terms of what I might choose to believe about how rational he is. Nor have I claimed that it was a great move for him that cannot possible backfire on him. But I have said that it is possible to explain this war without needing to include a storyline where Putin has gone mad.
Although many aspects of this war are about Putin, its still not all just about one person, he didnt just personally draw up a military plan one afternoon for this war that involved half a tank wandering into Kyiv unopposed. The people doing all the tedious planning can and probably will make loads of mistakes of various forms in their planning, but they've still got more knowledge of their capabilities and what might actually be within the bounds of possibility, and that includes the timescales for potential victory. Putin will have influenced their plans and may even have meddled in the detail of them. They could even be naive in ways that could result in numerous comedies of error. Their experience in other conflicts may still have left them woefully unprepared for this particular invasion against this sort of foe. I dont exclude these possibilities, but I'm not going to treat them as a certainty, or start making wild claims about Putin becoming so desperate this quickly that he actually intends to use nuclear weapons. The nuclear rhetoric is a warning to other nations about where some the red lines are, a reminder of where escalation ultimately leads to when it involves nuclear powers.
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
Absolutely.
gosub
~#
Spose we could send the Russian embassy a you don't have to be MAD to work here but it helps sticker
There's a slight concern in my own mind that we are getting a massively optimistic view of things, largely as a result of people re-sharing stuff that they like at massive scale rather than any more sophisticated propaganda. My hunch is that this is a powerful effect and I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Russians made some sort of, going on our current understanding, unaccountable breakthrough early next week.
Hoping that that isn't the case and there's plenty to suggest that they are genuinely ballsing it all up but we all really want to believe the good news, don't we..?
Hoping that that isn't the case and there's plenty to suggest that they are genuinely ballsing it all up but we all really want to believe the good news, don't we..?
Yossarian
⏭️
Doesn't matter that it's Spiked
The peace that could have been
After the Cold War, the West had an opportunity to bring Russia into the fold.
I see this Tim Black character isn't one to admit when he's gotten things wrong - in his previous column, on Feb. 17, he mocked Western leaders who were warning of an invasion of Ukraine, saying they were living in a "hysterical fantasy world."
"We have endured an increasingly hyperbolic, even absurd, escalation in the war-is-coming rhetoric ... Right now, they are a far greater threat to peace in Europe than Putin’s Russia is."
The West’s dangerous delusions of war
Russia's invasion of Ukraine exists in the heads of Western politicians and media.
www.spiked-online.com
RileyOBlimey
Well-Known Member
It potentially is meant to make Putin’s enemies think that, as per Nixon’s madman theory: Madman theory - Wikipedia
“I call it the Madman Theory, Bob. I want the North Vietnamese to believe I've reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war. We'll just slip the word to them that, "for God's sake, you know Nixon is obsessed about communism. We can't restrain him when he's angry—and he has his hand on the nuclear button" and Ho Chi Minh himself will be in Paris in two days begging for peace”
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Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Should We Have Seen This Coming? -Ilya Budraitskis on the Invasion of
What is the situation at this point? How extensive is the damage? It is very difficult to judge, as reports from both sides are highly contradictory. But we can already say for sure that we are talking about dozens of dead Ukrainian citizens, as well as Ukrainian and Russian military personnel...
www.versobooks.com
There appears to be some evidence for this idea, but I think it can be inferred by the fact that he invaded in the first place.
Nobody was expecting it because it seemed a transparently stupid idea. Which leaves two explanations - one, Putin is completely insane and acting irrationally. Two, Putin has fell victim to the common pitfalls of being a dictator and has been told for too long only what he wants to hear, which is that Ukraine is just Russia, and was therefore expecting to be welcomed as a liberator and could quickly form a friendly government and repress the Ukrainian nationalists.
Ukrainian men of all ages leaving Ireland to fight.
Desperately sad
It looked massive.
Poor fuckers caught in that
Desperately sad
It looked massive.
Poor fuckers caught in that
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
So what? It doesn't mean the facts (nor the opinions) in the linked article are wrong.I see this Tim Black character isn't one to admit when he's gotten things wrong - in his previous column, on Feb. 17, he mocked Western leaders who were warning of an invasion of Ukraine, saying they were living in a "hysterical fantasy world."
"We have endured an increasingly hyperbolic, even absurd, escalation in the war-is-coming rhetoric ... Right now, they are a far greater threat to peace in Europe than Putin’s Russia is."
The West’s dangerous delusions of war
Russia's invasion of Ukraine exists in the heads of Western politicians and media.
Russia-Ukraine War LIVE Updates | Elon Musk activates Starlink internet service in Ukraine
Russia-Ukraine War LIVE Updates | PM Modi conducts high-level meeting; IndiGo to join rescue efforts
It was also decided at the meeting to further enhance cooperation with the neighbouring countries of Ukraine to expedite the evacuation of Indian students, official sources said.
Not a complete dick.
elbows
Well-Known Member
It sounds very much like Russia ends up the same sort of 'expert' chatter that you are on about in the West. Probably because this sort of talk is standard 'justify and sell the war' propaganda. So thats another source of silly timescale expectations, stuff from within Russia itself. eg this was mentioned in the analysis I linked to earlier, which was from quite some weeks before the war actually started:
Mass Fire Strike on Ukraine
In NVO, Mikhail Khodarenok has written about how a possible Russian Army campaign in Ukraine won’t be any cake walk. Here’s a translation.
russiandefpolicy.com
Another reason is that I certainly couldnt exclude the genuine possibility of Russia toppling the government really quickly. I still cant, many people are taking a 'day by day' approach. I suppose in my own mind there has been an expectation that this intense first phase of the conflict entails a timescale between 'a few days and a few weeks', but with some consideration given to how often things in the past have ended up dragging on well beyond initial expectations. If the timescale stretches beyond a few weeks then it becomes a bit more reasonable to start emphasising the possibility of Russian failure, depending on the details of how and where they've ended up getting bogged down.
TopCat
Putin fanboy
Ukraine conflict: Liz Truss backs people from UK who want to fight
The foreign secretary says volunteers must make their own decision in the "fight for democracy".
www.bbc.co.uk
gosub
~#
Private jet which left Inverness for Moscow sparks furious reaction from Ian Blackford
Mr Blackford said the sight of a private jet leaving Inverness for Moscow was 'gut wrenching'.
nogojones
spelling is overrated
Of course it matters that its Spiked you twatDoesn't matter that it's Spiked
The peace that could have been
After the Cold War, the West had an opportunity to bring Russia into the fold.
dilute micro
esse quam videri
Makes me think that Putin's nuclear warning was done because he knows the world is going to see how fucked up he can make it. Don't know if that explosion was such a weapon or not but if he has to kill everybody in Kyiv I believe now that he will. I think losing and going home, in his mind, is a defeat of his empire religion.
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
Yes, I was forgetting that the reputation on here of the writers and publication matters more than the fact that they may sometimes get things right.Of course it matters that its Spiked you twat
Personally, I'd say that what doesn't matter is you.
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
Its not bollox, because I said welcome the Russians in and shoot them in the back. Its clearly a matter of perspective and context.
You are correct, agressors I don't know of anyone winning war that decends into a war of attrition.
The Ukarianians should be clever because in a numbers games they will lose. Ensure Russians walking about are greeted like friends and butchered like enemies.
History says you will win.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
If we are allowed to fight for democracy there...Ukraine conflict: Liz Truss backs people from UK who want to fight
The foreign secretary says volunteers must make their own decision in the "fight for democracy".www.bbc.co.uk
petee
no gods, no malarkey
just got the bi-weekly Bellingcat email this p.m., they've got lots of stuff going.
nogojones
spelling is overrated
Why hasn't he sent his special submarine up the Dnieper to sort it all outRussia-Ukraine War LIVE Updates | Elon Musk activates Starlink internet service in Ukraine
Russia-Ukraine War LIVE Updates | PM Modi conducts high-level meeting; IndiGo to join rescue efforts
It was also decided at the meeting to further enhance cooperation with the neighbouring countries of Ukraine to expedite the evacuation of Indian students, official sources said.www.newindianexpress.com
Not a complete dick.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
You gave three examples you said proved a point. They don't. Don't bluster on so.
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