The Reform UK Party (latest nigel farage vehicle) is it to be laughed at or not

[brogdale]

The scales on the vertial axis are doing some heavy lifting here... quite disappointing from John Burn-Murdoch.

Yeah, and by including a main US populist right-wing party but excluding the vermin from the UK figures does look a bit like comparing apples and oranges.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Over on X Elon Musk is busily tweeting away over the Pakistani rape gangs issue.



So far he’s called for Tommy Robinson to be freed, for Phillips to be sacked and others to be jailed for their part in the cover up.

As I understand it, Reform (Rupert Lowe specifically), are using the rejection by Phillips (in October) of calls from Oldham Council for a national inquiry into CSE to weaponise (justified) public anger about the child rape gangs.

The actual facts - that these are historic appalling crimes, that the Tories were in power when they occurred, that Phillips actually supports local inquiries (like the Rotherham inquiry) etc - do not seem to have prevented Reform from cutting through on this.

Setting aside the actual issue here, where to be frank there are questions that still need to be addressed, what’s notable is:

• the formal support from Musk for Reform that we can expect to see more of in 2025.
• the extent to which the American election result is going to have an effect on UK politics and how the former is providing energy, confidence and oxygen to the populist right here.
• the effectiveness of the populist right in converting anger (in this case over events that aren’t even current) and how a variety of actors - Reform, Musk, Goodwin/GB News, the Tory right, social media influencers effectively converge together now.
• A lot of liberals seem relieved that much of this online energy does not cut over into the mainstream media. This seems irrelevant to me. It’s being viewed and shared millions of times without any assistance from the msm.
• Labour and ‘the political class’ more widely will have difficulty in responding to this. I mean, they are useless and clueless, but even if they weren’t how do they respond? Ignore it and risk allowing the rumours/claims to continue unchecked or respond and in doing so prove the effectiveness of the Reform operation…

 

[Smokeandsteam]

And to add, here we are 48 hours later and Badenoch now feels compelled to join the Reform campaign, indicating again who is calling the shots now and who trails in their wake.

She knows a ‘national inquiry’ call is bollocks but…

 

[magneze]

Can't see these tweets though.

 

[danny la rouge]

And to add, here we are 48 hours later and Badenoch now feels compelled to join the Reform campaign, indicating again who is calling the shots now and who trails in their wake.

She knows a ‘national inquiry’ call is bollocks but…

This is the sort of thing I was referring to when I pointed out that it is possible that Reform and Farage come to lead the narrative so much that a situation could arise where Farage has enough clout to ask for premiership as the price of coalition even without having a majority of votes or seats.

And to be clear once more: it’s not a prediction, it’s a possible scenario. But not an outlandish one as some seemed to believe. And how are “we” responding? Wholly ineffectively.

 

[xenon]

Can't see these tweets though.

I know this keeps coming up but has anyone got to the bottom of it. I am not signed into Twitter and I can see them I’m using an iPhone. Safari browser.

 

[xenon]

What’s the basis for rejecting a national inquiry?

 

[Ax^]

how things will likely play out

farrage and kemi spending the next few years trying to out do each other on the racism front whilst claiming to be able to lower taxes at every turn

the left and liberals will piss around blaming each out for inaction till an election is called

then kemi forms a government with the frog face twat acting into as king maker to trumps delight

 

[Lotte]

The victims already are getting justice, loads of the gangs have been sent down, what more does Badenoch want?

 

[xenon]

how things will likely play out

farrage and kemi spending the next few years trying to out do each other on the racism front whilst claiming to be able to lower taxes at every turn

the left and liberals will piss around blaming each out for inaction till an election is called

then kemi forms a government with the frog face twat acting into as king maker to trumps delight

Starmer doing his hand ringing headmaster routine. You must take your medicine. Sensible policies. Necessary pain.

 

[emanymton]

The victims already are getting justice, loads of the gangs have been sent down, what more does Badenoch want?

Headlines.

Edit- or in the modern world maybe reposts on Twitter.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

What’s the basis for rejecting a national inquiry?

The argument, which Suella Braverman offered yesterday, is that a local inquiry would likely prove more effective in actually establishing what happened in Oldham and what lessons should be learned.

Philips advised and supported Oldham going down this route.

The populist right call for a national inquiry ‘to join the dots’ seems to imagine some form of witch hunt investigation into the police, councils and social workers.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I know this keeps coming up but has anyone got to the bottom of it. I am not signed into Twitter and I can see them I’m using an iPhone. Safari browser.

I posted the twitter posts on an iPhone using safari too.

I didn’t know people were unable to see them and will use a screenshot in future if this works better

 

[2hats]

I know this keeps coming up but has anyone got to the bottom of it. I am not signed into Twitter and I can see them I’m using an iPhone. Safari browser.

Yes: failure to post a screenshot of the relevant tweet.

 

[Rob Ray]

Same bogus idea that Labour have had in aping the Tories - people might stop voting for you because your aren't Farage, that doesn't mean they will vote for you pretending to be Farage.

 

[Lotte]

What would the UK under a Reform government look like? Are we talking Russia?

 

[Ax^]

What would the UK under a Reform government look like? Are we talking Russia?

I'm guessing a children of men situation
birth rate is dropping as well


Farrage the Warden of England

 

[BusLanes]

I'm not sure I have a strong opinion about local v national enquiries in terms of getting good outcomes. Although I would suspect that the issue with local will be like the issue with national - who actually is going to set it up? The Conservatives were in charge 2010-24 and the scandals were well known for a long part of that time, yet they didn't start a national enquiry, even though now they seem to think it is a good idea. Why would a local council, often run by the same party for decades be any better about making the decision?

Feels like a pretty transparent political attack on Starmer tbh.

 

[Lotte]

I guess they feel Labour are fair game because Rotherham had a Labour MP.

 

[BusLanes]

I guess they feel Labour are fair game because Rotherham had a Labour MP.

Makes sense. But there were lots of these scandals!

 

[cupid_stunt]

This is the sort of thing I was referring to when I pointed out that it is possible that Reform and Farage come to lead the narrative so much that a situation could arise where Farage has enough clout to ask for premiership as the price of coalition even without having a majority of votes or seats.

And to be clear once more: it’s not a prediction, it’s a possible scenario. But not an outlandish one as some seemed to believe. And how are “we” responding? Wholly ineffectively.

There's plenty in the Tory party that hates Farage, not just the one nation lot, but plenty of the headbangers too, so I don't think that would never happen, it would totally destroy the Tory party.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

There's plenty in the Tory party that hates Farage, not just the one nation lot, but plenty of the headbangers too, so I don't think that would never happen, it would totally destroy the Tory party.

The Tory party - as we have known it for decades - being destroyed is the plan, in the same way as has been done to the GOP in the states. Traditional “small c” conservatives swept aside, with populist right wing, free market capitalist headbangers to replace them.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

This may prove to be wrong as it's definitley in the 'hunch' category, but my guess is that Trump's second term is going to become very fraught very quickly, and being associated with his regime is going to lose political capital.

 

[cupid_stunt]

The Tory party - as we have known it for decades - being destroyed is the plan, in the same way as has been done to the GOP in the states. Traditional “small c” conservatives swept aside, with populist right wing, free market capitalist headbangers to replace them.

That's his stated plan, which is why the Tories are unlikely to have anything to do with making him PM as the junior partner in a coalition.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

That's his stated plan, which is why the Tories are unlikely to have anything to do with making him PM as the junior partner in a coalition.

You think they’ll have a choice?

 

[danny la rouge]

There's plenty in the Tory party that hates Farage, not just the one nation lot, but plenty of the headbangers too, so I don't think that would never happen, it would totally destroy the Tory party.

Yes, it would probably destroy the Tory party. It’s very possible that a realignment on the right ends in the destruction of the Tory party. The two forces of neoliberalism and conservatism fought over Brexit, and the war isn’t over.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

You think they’ll have a choice?

In a situation where the Tories are the largest party by seats? Yes. Formally, within the UK system, the existing PM carries on if there is a hung parliament, and it is up to them to resign if they cannot find a way to govern (this helps to explain Ramsay MacDonald, btw, as he was already the PM before he ended up governing as the leader of a rump National Labour party with a couple of dozen MPs). Convention has it that the outgoing PM then recommends that the leader of the largest opposition party be invited to attempt to form a government.

https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/hung-parliament/

This being the UK, these are conventions rather than constitutional absolutes, but that is how it would go down. At no point would Farage be asked to attempt to form a government if the Tories had more seats than Reform. If the Tories are the largest party by seats, that means they will necessarily have increased their seat number from what it is now, quite probably by a significant number. This isn't a situation in which the Tories are collapsing - it's a situation in which they are somewhat recovering. So a tory leader goes to the King and suggests a government in which that tory leader is not the PM? No, I don't see the circumstances in which they would simultaneously a) be in a position to do that as leader of the largest party and b) be so weak as not to be able to propose themselves as PM.

 

[danny la rouge]

In a situation where the Tories are the largest party by seats? Yes. Formally, within the UK system, the existing PM carries on if there is a hung parliament, and it is up to them to resign if they cannot find a way to govern. Convention has it that the outgoing PM then recommends that the leader of the largest opposition party be invited to attempt to form a government.

https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/hung-parliament/

This being the UK, these are conventions rather than constitutional absolutes, but that is how it would go down. At no point would Farage be asked to attempt to form a government if the Tories had more seats than Reform. If the Tories are the largest party by seats, that means they will necessarily have increased their seat number from what it is now, quite probably by a significant number. This isn't a situation in which the Tories are collapsing - it's a situation in which they are somewhat recovering. So a tory leader goes to the King and suggests a government in which that tory leader is not the PM? No, I don't see the circumstances in which they would simultaneously a) be in a position to do that as leader of the largest party and b) be so weak as not to be able to propose themselves as PM.

What about a situation in which the Tory party is falling apart and Farage could command a majority of Tory right, Ulster Unionsts and Reform. A majority doesn’t have to be all from the same party.

The 1922 committee might decide that Farage is the only option.

 

[nightowl]

It's so clear already that the Reform agenda is likely to be the major thing at the next general election. Labour is screwed because it is just hoping it will go away but sadly it won't.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The Tory party is simultaneously falling apart and winning more seats in parliament?