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Is the Tory Era Over? Farage Predicts Massive Shift to Reform
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InArduisFouette
Well-Known Member
while the way in which the Selfservative regime have instructed the DWP to operate cannot be condone and should rightly be coondemned , i think peopel are underestimating the capacity for cruelty here
bemused
Well-Known Member
What I find weird is that given the polling for both Labour, the Greens and the LibDems the Tories seem to think becoming Reform 2.0 is the way ahead. Farage has spent his whole life farming the loony wing of the Tory party and outside the EU elections has gotten nowhere. I'm no big city political mind but it seems to me centrist groups do best and simply becoming a group that hates foreigners wouldn't seem that appealing.
steveo87
22/11/2022 - got a maths joke.
For my sins, I do genuinely believe that despite being inherently right wing, the UK (well specially the England) has a real issue with the Far Right.
Sure, there have been the 'flash points', ie the BUF, NF, BNP, UKIP/Reform, but whenever they've ever reached the point where they've been 'credible' or seemingly close to 'real' power, there seems to be a collective 'no, fuck off' and they retreat to the shadows.
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
As of now I think it's just a panicked attempt not to lose any more votes to Refuk - it probably is way too late for them to go anywhere else now tbh. I think Brexit fried a few minds before that though - the vote was a lot more complex than the right wing version in their heads and they didn't see that IMO.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Or they just collapse into infighting due to massive egos and fall apart due to that.
ska invita
back on the other side
two interesting bits from the front pages today
Telegraph saying Kemi Badenoch will be the last "big beast" by default if their wipeout poll comes true. Hard to know if they're not just trying to scare their readers into getting out the vote, but even if over-egged it could very likely wipe out a generation of Tories who move on to do other more lucrative things rather than stay in shadow cabinet. Kemi favourite in Conservative Home polls.
Also Boris J back in 2028 - I believe this
Telegraph saying Kemi Badenoch will be the last "big beast" by default if their wipeout poll comes true. Hard to know if they're not just trying to scare their readers into getting out the vote, but even if over-egged it could very likely wipe out a generation of Tories who move on to do other more lucrative things rather than stay in shadow cabinet. Kemi favourite in Conservative Home polls.
Also Boris J back in 2028 - I believe this
Zapp Brannigan
Built like a steakhouse, handles like a bistro
With the usual caveat of "bookies chase the money, not the actual likelihood of any given result", oddschecker is showing Badenoch at 1/8 for Essex North West. I'd say she's one of the Tory Rump left behind.
For comparison, Braverman is 4/7 (Labour 6/4); more vulnerable should the eventual swing be more drastic than predicted. While Braverman has her supporters, I think her profile leaves her more open to a personal "anyone but Suella" vote too.
andysays
Love and solidarity
Badenoch's and Braverman's existing constituencies have been abolished, so they are both standing in different (though similar) ones this time.
This may make prediction more difficult this time round.
Zapp Brannigan
Built like a steakhouse, handles like a bistro
Very true; I absolutely don't take bookies' odds as anything like gospel, but 1/8 would still be a hell of a thing to get wrong though. Braverman's odds look a lot more like "we think bit we don't know".
Polls that have attempted to map seats have shown a huge range; from about 40 Tory seats (simple polling numbers plugged into Electoral Calculus) up to nearly 200. My gut feeling is that Braverman's seat is in play if that number comes in around 100-120, Badenoch’s only if we're right down the low end of the scale.
skyscraper101
0891 50 50 50
She's a 60% chance of winning.
I'd love to see her lose but my gut feeling is she'll be the next Tory leader.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
I wonder how much effort Reform are putting in there? They might actually want to nobble right-wingers to put clear blue water between themselves and the continuity tories.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
krtek a houby
Merry Xmas!
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
It isn’t if you’ve been reading the Doctor Who thread.Really hope this isn't a spoiler for the show
mx wcfc
Well-Known Member
I wouldn't have thought either of them would lose many votes to Reform, which may help them cling on.
krtek a houby
Merry Xmas!
Trying to avoid, we're away and only up to Dot and Bubble...It isn’t if you’ve been reading the Doctor Who thread.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Sorry. The internet is not your friend.
Hotel Chocolate
Well-Known Member
Reform is a Tory Party it's just a rougher version of the Conservative Party. Whereas the Conservative Party is basically the aristocrats party Reform is the stockbrokers' party, slightly less posh, a bit rougher, but still basically a Tory party.
Serge Forward
Just enjoyin' my coffee.
That makes three Tory parties now. Sunak, Starmer and Farage.
ska invita
back on the other side
Interesting and I think correct point made by Peter Oborne that the moment that killed the Tory party was the expulsion of Remainer Tories in 2019 by Boris Johnson. This tipped the balance potentially irreversibly towards the loony far right control of the party.
I reckon the death dance the Tories are in with Reform means that trajectory will only increase. Hard to imagine a future generation of young centre right Tories trying to reclaim the party any time soon.
There is a degree of parallel there with Labour who are undergoing a similar attempt to become a one wing party, though the overall dynamic is different.
Anyhow, back to Johnson's purge, it's an interesting idea to think that his getting Brexit done has resulted in the death of the Tories....
I reckon the death dance the Tories are in with Reform means that trajectory will only increase. Hard to imagine a future generation of young centre right Tories trying to reclaim the party any time soon.
There is a degree of parallel there with Labour who are undergoing a similar attempt to become a one wing party, though the overall dynamic is different.
Anyhow, back to Johnson's purge, it's an interesting idea to think that his getting Brexit done has resulted in the death of the Tories....
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
I can still remember people on this site going on about how Europe/Brexit would destroy the Tories. We watched the Teresa May death spiral in hope, then Johnson somehow turned it all around. But maybe the prophecy was right after all, we just had to wait another few years for them to properly implode.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
think brexit had to seen to have failed - leaving the true belivers turning on the tories for ruining thier fantasy. Wonder how Cameron feels about his legacy? Called a referendum which broke the country then destroyed the tory party - and his only other claim to fame is that he fucked a pig.
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
The only ray of sunshine for the pig fucker is that when he left office it was said that he was the worst PM since Eden. Now he just scraped into the bottom five…
Balbi
Hey, Dean Yager!
Hah yeah that was that period where for a while he didn't have a majority in Parliament and it would have been possible to no-confidence the government and get a caretaker of other parties who could command a majority and then have a second referendum on Brexit.
Except Change UK and the really insane remainers refused because it would have made Corbyn Prime Minister as caretaker and they couldn't legitimise him in that way - so they refused and everything when great.
ska invita
back on the other side
Wow yes it's all coming back to me now.... 2019 was incredible.... Look at the poll of polls for that period..... It could've all played out so differently
ska invita
back on the other side
Good sociological discussion hereTheres a couple of books out like this one - Ive not read them though:
The Party's Over
Today, it is not a question of if, but when? What we are watching is the collapse of the most successful political party in Europe. Despite winning the December 2019 General Election, the parliamentary conservative and unionist party is facing its own demise. It no longer speaks for, or to, the...www.versobooks.com
*also climate change this next decade and onwards totally screws Conservativism economically - something that needs a big state response - green new deal is a dead cert to happen eventually - too late unfortunately
ska invita
back on the other side
Some very cheering numbers in this FT article - might as well read it all - I'll C&P it
Conservative HQ has become a “ghost ship” after the party’s devastating election defeat triggered a wave of senior staff exits, wiping out decades of experience and leaving the next leader with a big fundraising challenge.
Multiple Tory officials told the Financial Times that several veteran staff at Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) had taken voluntary redundancy as the UK’s main opposition party tries to make savings.
“With the exception of a handful of staff, almost everyone on the highest three brackets of salary — almost everyone above £50,000 — has taken voluntary redundancy,” said one senior party insider.
Another said: “CCHQ has been turned into a ghost ship.” A third senior party official added: “Any organisation should be concerned about losing corporate memory.”
Party insiders said Tory HQ had hoped to make it until the end of 2024 without moving into the red, but that would require big savings and for the new party leader to quickly raise funds.
“One big concern is that we end up being dependent on a single donor to keep going,” said one Tory grandee.
A Conservative party spokesperson said: “CCHQ always reviews and restructures its operations following a general election.“This restructure will form part of the basis of the party review that the party chairman has announced alongside the review into the general election.”
All political parties hire staff on short contracts during election campaigns and it is natural for an exodus to occur after polling day as those contracts expire. Dozens have left since the Tories suffered their worst election result in more than a century on July 4. But the Conservative exodus extends to very experienced officials such as Gareth Fox, CCHQ head of candidates; his department faces many departures.
Some senior party officials said they feared the party might be forced to close its outpost in Leeds, opened by former premier Boris Johnson in 2020 as a bridgehead to the “red wall” of traditionally Labour-voting seats, but that was firmly denied by CCHQ. Party board members said there was £5mn left in the Tory coffers after the election, which was intended to see the party machine through to the end of 2024.
But that depended on the party raising about £2mn from its annual conference in Birmingham and on the next Tory leader, due to be elected on November 2, quickly bringing in another £1mn to £2mn.
“In the longer term there is a very big issue,” said one party grandee. “We need £130mn to £160mn over a five-year parliament.” The party is haunted by the financial devastation it faced after its electoral wipeout by Tony Blair in 1997 when the Tory machine became heavily reliant on a single donor, Lord Michael Ashcroft.
Senior Tory officials said most donors were sitting on their hands, waiting for the outcome of the leadership race and to measure how well support for Labour held up in the first by-elections.
“We don’t have unions to depend on. Who is going to underwrite the centre-right movement in the UK?” said one. “None of these leadership candidates look like the sort of person who can attract mass donor support like David Cameron or Boris Johnson.”
Tory insiders said it had cost roughly £18mn a year to run the party while in government, and that it would require more to perform well in opposition without the aid of a host of special advisers on civil service salaries. The party is not expected to go bust. The Conservative Foundation, set up to strengthen the financial future of the party, has £25mn in reserve, according to one insider.
During the election campaign, the Conservative party raised only £1.9mn — a tenth of the £19mn of donations it received in the equivalent period of the 2019 general election. Labour by contrast received £9.5mn for the same period between May 30 and July 4 this year.
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Perhaps the most importnat bit of all that is
" donors were sitting on their hands, waiting for the outcome of the leadership race + . “None of these leadership candidates look like the sort of person who can attract mass donor support like David Cameron or Boris Johnson.”
What with the Tories already in power thanks to Starmer, and Reform hoovering up the swivel eyed donors, just maybe this is the beginning of some genuine financial doom for the Tories!
Conservative HQ has become a “ghost ship” after the party’s devastating election defeat triggered a wave of senior staff exits, wiping out decades of experience and leaving the next leader with a big fundraising challenge.
Multiple Tory officials told the Financial Times that several veteran staff at Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) had taken voluntary redundancy as the UK’s main opposition party tries to make savings.
“With the exception of a handful of staff, almost everyone on the highest three brackets of salary — almost everyone above £50,000 — has taken voluntary redundancy,” said one senior party insider.
Another said: “CCHQ has been turned into a ghost ship.” A third senior party official added: “Any organisation should be concerned about losing corporate memory.”
Party insiders said Tory HQ had hoped to make it until the end of 2024 without moving into the red, but that would require big savings and for the new party leader to quickly raise funds.
“One big concern is that we end up being dependent on a single donor to keep going,” said one Tory grandee.
A Conservative party spokesperson said: “CCHQ always reviews and restructures its operations following a general election.“This restructure will form part of the basis of the party review that the party chairman has announced alongside the review into the general election.”
All political parties hire staff on short contracts during election campaigns and it is natural for an exodus to occur after polling day as those contracts expire. Dozens have left since the Tories suffered their worst election result in more than a century on July 4. But the Conservative exodus extends to very experienced officials such as Gareth Fox, CCHQ head of candidates; his department faces many departures.
Some senior party officials said they feared the party might be forced to close its outpost in Leeds, opened by former premier Boris Johnson in 2020 as a bridgehead to the “red wall” of traditionally Labour-voting seats, but that was firmly denied by CCHQ. Party board members said there was £5mn left in the Tory coffers after the election, which was intended to see the party machine through to the end of 2024.
But that depended on the party raising about £2mn from its annual conference in Birmingham and on the next Tory leader, due to be elected on November 2, quickly bringing in another £1mn to £2mn.
“In the longer term there is a very big issue,” said one party grandee. “We need £130mn to £160mn over a five-year parliament.” The party is haunted by the financial devastation it faced after its electoral wipeout by Tony Blair in 1997 when the Tory machine became heavily reliant on a single donor, Lord Michael Ashcroft.
Senior Tory officials said most donors were sitting on their hands, waiting for the outcome of the leadership race and to measure how well support for Labour held up in the first by-elections.
“We don’t have unions to depend on. Who is going to underwrite the centre-right movement in the UK?” said one. “None of these leadership candidates look like the sort of person who can attract mass donor support like David Cameron or Boris Johnson.”
Tory insiders said it had cost roughly £18mn a year to run the party while in government, and that it would require more to perform well in opposition without the aid of a host of special advisers on civil service salaries. The party is not expected to go bust. The Conservative Foundation, set up to strengthen the financial future of the party, has £25mn in reserve, according to one insider.
During the election campaign, the Conservative party raised only £1.9mn — a tenth of the £19mn of donations it received in the equivalent period of the 2019 general election. Labour by contrast received £9.5mn for the same period between May 30 and July 4 this year.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Perhaps the most importnat bit of all that is
" donors were sitting on their hands, waiting for the outcome of the leadership race + . “None of these leadership candidates look like the sort of person who can attract mass donor support like David Cameron or Boris Johnson.”
What with the Tories already in power thanks to Starmer, and Reform hoovering up the swivel eyed donors, just maybe this is the beginning of some genuine financial doom for the Tories!
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