Is the Tory Era Over? Farage Predicts Massive Shift to Reform

[ska invita]

That seems like exactly what's happening. A labour government that Thatcher would be proud of.
The far left is a dead duck but never underestimate the far right vote.

The far right vote in this vision is just the conservative/reform vote.

I think this is basically correct also;



There does seem to be a very real desire to destroy the conservative party....and the US analogy is a good one, a permanent managerial centre right Vs unhinged trumpian right

 

[Pickman's model]

Under FPTP there is no prospect of Reform (or any other party for that matter) dislodging the two main parties. The Tories in opposition will enter open civil war (although the civil war is pretty evident in government to be fair) over the future of the Party. The fight will be over a populist party guided by the ideas of the new right with a leader like Baddenoch/Jenrick (under those conditions Farage and co will be influential and will flow in to the Tories, but seriously he's not going to be the leader) and relentlessly promoted by the new right on social media or will they coalesce under a programme of right centrism led by some like Mordaunt and enjoy legacy media rehabilitation.

The existential bit is that it's hard to see how they win an election in either circumstance. There currently isn't a big enough mass in the UK ready for a populist right party, although it would be more competitive a) than the current leadership and b) will become even more popular after 5 years of flaccid Starmerism/Reeves brand of supply side economics. But, a revitalised centrist party would be in a crowded marketplace.

Like Labour is 2015, a split in the Tory ranks over the soul of the party seems inevitable. But, like Labour, if one happens it’ll go nowhere.

That's because it doesn't have a soul

 

[Pickman's model]

Do you need the Tory leaflets to line the rabbit hutch or something?

(((((Rabbits)))))

 

[moochedit]

Grand total of 3 posts from the OP

The op was only here to spam their website. Once editor warned them not to do it again they soon fucked off

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

Do you need the Tory leaflets to line the rabbit hutch or something?

Good point. I'm going to run out of letterbox though.

 

[Kaka Tim]

On one level its easy to cheer the fact that Refuk are eating into the tory vote, however i dont think this a good thing overall.

Right now it looks there is a real possiblity that the tories are about to suffer an unprecedented electoral disaster and are reduced to less than 100 seats. Even a proable best case scenario puts them on a 1997 level battering. Basically the return of farage and the D-Day debacle has sunk them.

But what then...? THe party will still be there with its resources, membership, powerful backers, counciiors and assests - its not going to curl up and die ...however ...
Farage looks likely to win a seat in Clacton and finally become an MP.

Whatever is left of the tories will then descend into an almighty spat as the far right of the party push to take over (badenoch and braverman at the fore) . But there will be a strong push from the membership - and farages backers within the party and from elelmets of the RW media for farage to join the tory party and go for the leadership himself. The outcome will be the tories essentailly become ReFuk - unashamed cultural warrior, populaist, xenophobic right wing nationalism. Tea Party Trump stuff. Driven by ego, dogma and magical thinking. The last vestiges of "sensible tories" (i.e. cynical cunts with horrible politics but with comptentance, intelligence and an understanding of reality) will be pushed out.

But the Trump comparison comes with a warning - sure this will probably ensure the tories are out of power for some considerable time as most voters will reject this batshittery - until the day comes when enough of them dont - when a Labour govnerment is unable or unwilling to do anything more than damage limitiation WRT the countrys economy and public services and the toxic influx of conspiracy, bigotry and right-populist narratives/fariy tales/nightmares contuniues to take root. Even out of power - the effect of these arguments, ideas and delusions being giving ever greater publicity and credibility will be toxic.

One optimistic aspect is that REfuk (and the tories) appeal to younger people (like under the age of 40) is minimal - and gets less the younger you go. This contrasts markedly with the MAGA crowd (and - I think - with far right movements in Europe) - which is why UKIP/ReFuk struggle to get any mps even if they polled in the high teens - they appeal is just too narrow. Of course that could change - but I think that unlikely with Farage at the helm. Im guessing this is closely realted to Brexit - where younger people overwhelmingly opposed it so are not likely to feel very friendly to the its atchitects.
Still - I think an escalting and ugly battle agaisnt right populism is going to be the major feature of the poltical landscape post July 4th.

 

[Karl Masks]

Braverman thinks they should merge.

 

[skyscraper101]

Whatever is left of the tories will then descend into an almighty spat as the far right of the party push to take over (badenoch and braverman at the fore) . But there will be a strong push from the membership - and farages backers within the party and from elelmets of the RW media for farage to join the tory party and go for the leadership himself.

The first bit I agree with. I'm certain that either Braverman or Badenoch will be next in line to lead the Tory party. The second bit I dunno. I can't see Farage wanting to associate himself with the failure of a Tory party when he's got his own vehicle on a roll now. He probably thinks he can be the official opposition and at the very best we might hope he pushes for a better system than FPTP.

 

[Petcha]

Say what you like about Farage, the toady cunt, but objectively he's a brilliant politician (yes i know he's lost 7 attempts or whatever to become and MP) but he's a massive disruptor with zero actual political capital. And he managed to convince half the country that leaving the EU would be beneficial to them. Many of whom probably lost their jobs as a result of their vote. He's currently dominating the news cycles once again. Superb trolling Nige.

 

[kebabking]

Braverman thinks they should merge.

As does Patel - but not Badenoch.

 

[kebabking]

On one level its easy to cheer the fact that Refuk are eating into the tory vote, however i dont think this a good thing overall.

Right now it looks there is a real possiblity that the tories are about to suffer an unprecedented electoral disaster and are reduced to less than 100 seats. Even a proable best case scenario puts them on a 1997 level battering. Basically the return of farage and the D-Day debacle has sunk them.

But what then...? THe party will still be there with its resources, membership, powerful backers, counciiors and assests - its not going to curl up and die ...however ...
Farage looks likely to win a seat in Clacton and finally become an MP.

Whatever is left of the tories will then descend into an almighty spat as the far right of the party push to take over (badenoch and braverman at the fore) . But there will be a strong push from the membership - and farages backers within the party and from elelmets of the RW media for farage to join the tory party and go for the leadership himself. The outcome will be the tories essentailly become ReFuk - unashamed cultural warrior, populaist, xenophobic right wing nationalism. Tea Party Trump stuff. Driven by ego, dogma and magical thinking. The last vestiges of "sensible tories" (i.e. cynical cunts with horrible politics but with comptentance, intelligence and an understanding of reality) will be pushed out.

But the Trump comparison comes with a warning - sure this will probably ensure the tories are out of power for some considerable time as most voters will reject this batshittery - until the day comes when enough of them dont - when a Labour govnerment is unable or unwilling to do anything more than damage limitiation WRT the countrys economy and public services and the toxic influx of conspiracy, bigotry and right-populist narratives/fariy tales/nightmares contuniues to take root. Even out of power - the effect of these arguments, ideas and delusions being giving ever greater publicity and credibily will be toxic.

One optimistic aspect is that REfuk (and the tories) appeal to younger people (like under the age of 40) is minimal - and gets less the younger you go. This contrasts markedly with the MAGA crowd (and - I think - with far right movements in Europe) - which is why UKIP struggle to get any mps even if they polled in the high teens - they appeal is just too narrow. Of course that could change - but I think that unlikely with Farage at the helm. Im guessing this is closely realted to Brexit - where younger people overwhelmingly opposed it so are not likely to feel very friendly to the its atchitects.
Still - I think an escalting and ugly battle agaisnt right populism is going to be the major feature of the poltical landscape post July 4th.

See, you use all this thinking, but everyone knows there's absolutely no difference whatsoever about life under the Blair/Brown/Starmer governments and that under a potential Führage government because neither Blair, Brown or Starmer conform to the resolutions of a 17th International, held in a phone box in Neasdon on a Thursday night in February 1983.

/PetulantUrbanTeenager mode off.

My considered view is that you're right, that eventually a far right, Trumpian/Führagist Tory party will emerge as the government - and it's going to be shit. Unrelenting, diabolical shit. But that by voting Labour, by knocking on doors, by getting involved, you push that government further off into the future - that it's far better to live for 5, or 10, or 15 years under a frankly uninspiring Starmerite government, and then 5/10/15/forever under a Trumpian/Führagist authoritarian, dystopian nightmare, than it is by just accepting that Trumpian/Führagist hellscape right now because Starmer isn't going to nationalise the railways on day 4.

Successful politics is the realisation that you can either have some of what you want, some that you aren't happy with, and a bit of what you really don't like, or you can have none of what you want, and a lot of what you really can't live with - and that one of those is very much better than the other.

 

[Kaka Tim]

The first bit I agree with. I'm certain that either Braverman or Badenoch will be next in line to lead the Tory party. The second bit I dunno. I can't see Farage wanting to associate himself with the failure of a Tory party when he's got his own vehicle on a roll now. He probably thinks he can be the official opposition and at the very best we might hope he pushes for a better system than FPTP.

I think Farage would aboslutely jump at the opportunity. Refuk are not going to replace the tories as the party of the right - the tories have a massive amount of resources that they dont and are enbedded into the political, culture and social insitutions of the UK (the cunts have been around for about 300 years after all) - Farage knows this - and that it makes much more sense to infiltrate and takeover. There was a poll the other day which had farage as the number one choice for tory leader amongst the population overall (not just tory voters )

.Election latest: Farage says poll shows Reform 'now the challengers to Labour'

Whatever he says - I have absolute faith that the nation's noble saviour will humbly answer the nations call for him to serve - if/when the time comes.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

I wouldn't see it happening personally. Essentially 'merging' is just Farage coming in and Refuk fucking off isn't it - they don't have anything to offer the Tories apart from that. Essentially winding the party up, and it seems to be doing quite nicely for them as it is. Then whoever takes over the Tory party post bloodbath would need to be in favour and I doubt whoever that is will fancy having Farage hanging round as leader-in-waiting.

 

[A380]

See, you use all this thinking, but everyone knows there's absolutely no difference whatsoever about life under the Blair/Brown/Starmer governments and that under a potential Führage government because neither Blair, Brown or Starmer conform to the resolutions of a 17th International, held in a phone box in Neasdon on a Thursday night in February 1983.

/PetulantUrbanTeenager mode off.

My considered view is that you're right, that eventually a far right, Trumpian/Führagist Tory party will emerge as the government - and it's going to be shit. Unrelenting, diabolical shit. But that by voting Labour, by knocking on doors, by getting involved, you push that government further off into the future - that it's far better to live for 5, or 10, or 15 years under a frankly uninspiring Starmerite government, and then 5/10/15/forever under a Trumpian/Führagist authoritarian, dystopian nightmare, than it is by just accepting that Trumpian/Führagist hellscape right now because Starmer isn't going to nationalise the railways on day 4.

Successful politics is the realisation that you can either have some of what you want, some that you aren't happy with, and a bit of what you really don't like, or you can have none of what you want, and a lot of what you really can't live with - and that one of those is very much better than the other.

But, but , if you take that attitude and don’t constantly and hilariously refer to ‘Shamer’ and similar how are people going to know you are better than them?

 

[Pickman's model]

Say what you like about Farage, the toady cunt, but objectively he's a brilliant politician (yes i know he's lost 7 attempts or whatever to become and MP) but he's a massive disruptor with zero actual political capital. And he managed to convince half the country that leaving the EU would be beneficial to them. Many of whom probably lost their jobs as a result of their vote. He's currently dominating the news cycles once again. Superb trolling Nige.

By half the country you mean 37.4% of the electorate

 

[Kaka Tim]

I wouldn't see it happening personally. Essentially 'merging' is just Farage coming in and Refuk fucking off isn't it - they don't have anything to offer the Tories apart from that. Essentially winding the party up, and it seems to be doing quite nicely for them as it is. Then whoever takes over the Tory party post bloodbath would need to be in favour and I doubt whoever that is will fancy having Farage hanging round as leader-in-waiting.

They can offer at least a 10% increase in their vote share with Fuck Face at the helm. Sure plenty of tory MPs dont want him - but lots of them didnt want johnson either - but their membership, large sections of the right wing media and all the shady hedge fund cunts who buzz around this sort of politics very much do. And they would put a LOT of pressure on the Parliamentary party to accepted him as an mp and for enough mps to nominate him for the final run off (remember - they will have a much smaller pool of mps pst july 4th) . Id guess he will easily beat whoever else when it goes to the members. Its by no means definite - but definitely quite possible.

 

[moochedit]

Sorry if done already but refuk candidate says uk should have been neutral with hitler

Reform UK candidate apologises over Hitler neutrality comments

Ian Gribbin says his grandparents were "Russian Jews fleeing persecution" and his comments were taken out of context.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Karl Masks]

As does Patel - but not Badenoch.

bye bye badenoch then

 

[Dogsauce]

I think their vote will be boosted above what they’re polling because of their supporters motivation to vote being stronger - similar to Brexit where the vote didn’t match national opinion. A lot of Tories and Labour won’t be bothered to turn up as they aren’t offering much to inspire people so comparatively respect may do better. I wonder if there’s targeted online shit going on to help them?

 

[hitmouse]

See, you use all this thinking, but everyone knows there's absolutely no difference whatsoever about life under the Blair/Brown/Starmer governments and that under a potential Führage government because neither Blair, Brown or Starmer conform to the resolutions of a 17th International, held in a phone box in Neasdon on a Thursday night in February 1983.

/PetulantUrbanTeenager mode off.

My considered view is that you're right, that eventually a far right, Trumpian/Führagist Tory party will emerge as the government - and it's going to be shit. Unrelenting, diabolical shit. But that by voting Labour, by knocking on doors, by getting involved, you push that government further off into the future - that it's far better to live for 5, or 10, or 15 years under a frankly uninspiring Starmerite government, and then 5/10/15/forever under a Trumpian/Führagist authoritarian, dystopian nightmare, than it is by just accepting that Trumpian/Führagist hellscape right now because Starmer isn't going to nationalise the railways on day 4.

Successful politics is the realisation that you can either have some of what you want, some that you aren't happy with, and a bit of what you really don't like, or you can have none of what you want, and a lot of what you really can't live with - and that one of those is very much better than the other.

I think you've been on urban for long enough to have encountered this argument before, but just to go over it again, I don't think the argument against supporting Starmer/Labour is that they're exactly the same as Farage, but that the likes of Farage, the AfD and Le Pen are a product of the kinds of politics promoted by people like Blair, Macron and Starmer. So from that perspective saying "back Starmer and Macron to stop Farage and Le Pen" is like saying "I hate reaping, let's all sow instead".
It's touched on in Tim's post above, but there's a lot of people who feel like things are not going particularly well and it would be nice if we could change things somewhat. Right now, in opposition, Starmer can just about manage to associate himself with that sentiment, at least enough to almost certainly get into power. Barring any major unexpected surprises, from July onwards Starmer becomes the person in charge of the present state of things. In that situation, either you have some kind of serious force that can challenge Starmer from the left, or else you leave the likes of Reform to become the default voice of opposition to the status quo, just the RN in France and the AfD in Germany. Sensible, grown-up politics.

 

[Pickman's model]

See, you use all this thinking, but everyone knows there's absolutely no difference whatsoever about life under the Blair/Brown/Starmer governments and that under a potential Führage government because neither Blair, Brown or Starmer conform to the resolutions of a 17th International, held in a phone box in Neasdon on a Thursday night in February 1983.

/PetulantUrbanTeenager mode off.

My considered view is that you're right, that eventually a far right, Trumpian/Führagist Tory party will emerge as the government - and it's going to be shit. Unrelenting, diabolical shit. But that by voting Labour, by knocking on doors, by getting involved, you push that government further off into the future - that it's far better to live for 5, or 10, or 15 years under a frankly uninspiring Starmerite government, and then 5/10/15/forever under a Trumpian/Führagist authoritarian, dystopian nightmare, than it is by just accepting that Trumpian/Führagist hellscape right now because Starmer isn't going to nationalise the railways on day 4.

Successful politics is the realisation that you can either have some of what you want, some that you aren't happy with, and a bit of what you really don't like, or you can have none of what you want, and a lot of what you really can't live with - and that one of those is very much better than the other.

the problem is that while you may be right for you, and indeed a lot of other people, to say in essence that politics is the art of the possible, that doesn't hold true for everyone else. there are and will continue to be a lot of people for who sticking a spike in the spokes seems a good idea. a lot of people who will vote for faragist pie in the sky rather than what you consider more rational parties and politics. and frankly the current labour party is likely to be an enabler for that sort of nonsense by adopting the trappings of tory politics, by announcing immigration policies in the sun of all places. i don't like the term overton window, but the labour leadership is moving it rather to the right instead of arguing against regressive, short-sighted and hostile environment policies. back in the day shammer said that the case for immigration needed to be made: but now he seems of a rather different opinion. 49% of electors in his constituency were born outside the uk. i wonder how many of them will stick with him, when he so clearly doesn't value their presence in this country as much as he used to suggest.

never mind renationalisation of the railways, some common decency would be nice to see from the labour party. but you won't get that from the soi-disant party of business. you can't be the party of bosses and expect to make things better for workers. i suspect we'll see precious little of what you want, a great deal of what you don't like and a decent-sized helping of things you really don't like. the labour party want to out-tory the tories and yet retain their traditional constituencies. i can't see that ending well.

 

[Elpenor]

Sorry if done already but refuk candidate says uk should have been neutral with hitler

Reform UK candidate apologises over Hitler neutrality comments

Ian Gribbin says his grandparents were "Russian Jews fleeing persecution" and his comments were taken out of context.

www.bbc.co.uk

Also in main GE thread

 

[8ball]

Sorry if done already but refuk candidate says uk should have been neutral with hitler

Reform UK candidate apologises over Hitler neutrality comments

Ian Gribbin says his grandparents were "Russian Jews fleeing persecution" and his comments were taken out of context.

www.bbc.co.uk

Said. Not says.

 

[Lotte]

The first bit I agree with. I'm certain that either Braverman or Badenoch will be next in line to lead the Tory party. The second bit I dunno. I can't see Farage wanting to associate himself with the failure of a Tory party when he's got his own vehicle on a roll now. He probably thinks he can be the official opposition and at the very best we might hope he pushes for a better system than FPTP.

I wonder how the racist contingent will take it. They like their tokens, but only to a point. These are people who chose Liz Truss over Sunak, remember.

 

[Pickman's model]

I wonder how the racist contingent will take it. They like their tokens, but only to a point. These are people who chose Liz Truss over Sunak, remember.

and in retrospect were they really so wrong to do so? truss was like one of those spurs managers, you like where they're taking the club as they hurtle down the table. if la truss had remained in charge we might find ourselves with better opportunities for real change than we are with this election.

 

[Pickman's model]

Said. Not says.

pedantry will out, i always say

 

[8ball]

pedantry will out, i always say

Had such things been written during this election campaign, you would have a point.

 

[Cloo]

I don't know about a shift to Reform, but I do worry the Tories in exile will go increasingly bonkers, bouyed by the apparent success of Trumpism and will lean into courting social media troglodytes with extreme homophobia as well as extreme transphobia; making working conditions more like the US and curtailing parental leave in the name of 'productivity'; outright insurance health model; and even towards banning abortion, despite the fact that absolutely no one wants that. All in the name of 'Things were good in the old days, so if it we make it like the old days, when we didn't have poncey stuff like human rights and equality, things will be better again'. And the media will remain on their side and spend four years going on about how the Labour government is chaos, they're costing YOU money for their CRAZY WOKE SCHEMES, that crime is rampant (whether it is or not, but if you say it enough times, no one checks) - and then people will vote the fuckers back in next time.

 

[strung out]

Had such things been written during this election campaign, you would have a point.

How about this then?

Reform UK spokesman says that candidate’s comments on whether Britain should have stayed neutral in WW2 were ‘probably true’.

From this BBC article: Reform candidate said UK should have been neutral against Hitler

 

[Pickman's model]

Had such things been written during this election campaign, you would have a point.

bet he's written worse things since then