Is the Tory Era Over? Farage Predicts Massive Shift to Reform

[brogdale]

How about this then?

Reform UK spokesman says that candidate’s comments on whether Britain should have stayed neutral in WW2 were ‘probably true’.

From this BBC article: Reform candidate said UK should have been neutral against Hitler

Sounds like we need the Clash to play Victoria park again.

 

[hitmouse]

...they'd send a limousine anyway?

 

[brogdale]

...they'd send a limousine anyway?

innit?

 

[bemused]

Doesn't Farage say this at every election? I'd like to see him elected, it would be comedy.

 

[two sheds]

Fucking hell the air time he'd get only this time he'd be even more smug smug smug

 

[Kaka Tim]

probably not likely - be it would be amazing if he failed to win the seat. Maybe lozza fox should stand as well to split the gammon vote?

 

[cupid_stunt]

probably not likely - be it would be amazing if he failed to win the seat. Maybe lozza fox should stand as well to split the gammon vote?

Too late now, but both UKIP and the Heritage Party are standing against Farage.

 

[8ball]

bet he's written worse things since then

That’s not a bet I’ll be taking you up on.

 

[Lotte]

I don't know about a shift to Reform, but I do worry the Tories in exile will go increasingly bonkers, bouyed by the apparent success of Trumpism and will lean into courting social media troglodytes with extreme homophobia as well as extreme transphobia; making working conditions more like the US and curtailing parental leave in the name of 'productivity'; outright insurance health model; and even towards banning abortion, despite the fact that absolutely no one wants that. All in the name of 'Things were good in the old days, so if it we make it like the old days, when we didn't have poncey stuff like human rights and equality, things will be better again'. And the media will remain on their side and spend four years going on about how the Labour government is chaos, they're costing YOU money for their CRAZY WOKE SCHEMES, that crime is rampant (whether it is or not, but if you say it enough times, no one checks) - and then people will vote the fuckers back in next time.

I mean, when you've got Kemi Badenoch freely admitting they stacked the government with transphobes because they wanted to harm trans people as much as possible, that's a warning sign. And where there's transphobia, homophobia isn't far behind.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Too late now, but both UKIP and the Heritage Party are standing against Farage.

is it the same person? maybe wearing a different barbour jacket?

 

[Cloo]

I mean, when you've got Kemi Badenoch freely admitting they stacked the government with transphobes because they wanted to harm trans people as much as possible, that's a warning sign. And where there's transphobia, homophobia isn't far behind.

Oh yeah, an extra-loopy Tory party would certainly go for the 'Homosexuality is an adult topic that children shouldn't be hearing about' idiocy.

 

[PR1Berske]

As a political nerd of many years standing, I've heard "this year will be the year when Party X finally splits" more times than I've had hot dinners. However, only now does it feel remotely realistic.

If – IF – the Tories are reduced to a rump and Farage wins Clacton, then it's possible that the majority of Tory MPs are from the loopier wing. Farage will suggest an unofficial alliance. If you know your history you'll know that the SDP-Liberal Alliance didn't last long, a merger was always on the cards.

So if the rump happens, and Farage is elected, and an unofficial alliance becomes an effective takeover, then remaining mainstream small-c conservatives will have to make a choice. They could stick with it, being like mainstream members in the current MAGARepublican party, or they fly away to either Starmer's broad church Labour Party, or the stable hands of the Libdems (remember that some of the Change UK lot went LibDem after their outfit imploded).

For maximum nerdery, I wonder if the current LDs and any wantaway Tories would have to agree on a name change to make the incoming members more comfortable (Liberal and People's Democrats? Mainstream Democrats? Probably not Reformist Democrats.)

The boy has cried wolf on UK parties realigning for decades. Both the SDP and ChangeUK are warnings from history. But maybe this year could be the one....

 

[Jennaonthebeach]

I mean, when you've got Kemi Badenoch freely admitting they stacked the government with transphobes because they wanted to harm trans people as much as possible, that's a warning sign. And where there's transphobia, homophobia isn't far behind.

Even if it isn't transphobia is bad in and of itself, surely?

 

[Lotte]

Yeah, it is. But the fact it's government-endorsed transphobia makes it worse. And nobody is going to challenge her on it.

 

[InArduisFouette]

I mean, when you've got Kemi Badenoch freely admitting they stacked the government with transphobes because they wanted to harm trans people as much as possible, that's a warning sign. And where there's transphobia, homophobia isn't far behind.

closely followed by open ,active attacks on the disabled and/or open active attacks on reproductive rights

 

[Dystopiary]

closely followed by open ,active attacks on the disabled

Already happening and has been for years.

 

[redsquirrel]

See, you use all this thinking, but everyone knows there's absolutely no difference whatsoever about life under the Blair/Brown/Starmer governments and that under a potential Führage government because neither Blair, Brown or Starmer conform to the resolutions of a 17th International, held in a phone box in Neasdon on a Thursday night in February 1983.

/PetulantUrbanTeenager mode off.

But no one on U75, and barely anyone outside it, has argued anything like this. It's just a stupid strawman. These days the majority of regular U75 political posters are pretty middle of the road social democrats, its not Trots or communists arguing that they can't bring themselves to vote Labour on the 'hold the nose thread', its the people from the political tradition you claim to represent.

My considered view is that you're right, that eventually a far right, Trumpian/Führagist Tory party will emerge as the government - and it's going to be shit. Unrelenting, diabolical shit. But that by voting Labour, by knocking on doors, by getting involved, you push that government further off into the future - that it's far better to live for 5, or 10, or 15 years under a frankly uninspiring Starmerite government, and then 5/10/15/forever under a Trumpian/Führagist authoritarian, dystopian nightmare, than it is by just accepting that Trumpian/Führagist hellscape right now because Starmer isn't going to nationalise the railways on day 4.

hitmouse has already answered this part. It's hardly a hard left position that the growth of the hard right has occurred because the centre left has abandoned any form of class politics and embraced, extended and pushed further neo-liberal policies. Cas Mudde is a total liberal and he makes this point.

Successful politics is the realisation that you can either have some of what you want, some that you aren't happy with, and a bit of what you really don't like, or you can have none of what you want, and a lot of what you really can't live with - and that one of those is very much better than the other.

Apart from when the party you've been a member of for 10+(?) years advocates what ... some very, very minor changes to foreign policy? Then it becomes a matter of principle to leave that party, despite it advocating home and economic policies that you claim you've been supportive for your life.

Seriously take the beam from your own bloody eye. Loads of people, including more than a few U75's, did join, become active, door knock etc for the LP - and last week you were talking about how useful it is that they can now be expelled.

 

[Hotel Chocolate]

The Conservative Party dies to be replaced by something more right-wing.

Also if Farage and ReformUK beat the Conservatives in percentage points of votes yet get a minuscule number of seats this will highlight the inadequacies of our present electoral system FPTP and there will be an outcry and a demand for Proportional Representation.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Sorry if done already but refuk candidate says uk should have been neutral with hitler

Reform UK candidate apologises over Hitler neutrality comments

Ian Gribbin says his grandparents were "Russian Jews fleeing persecution" and his comments were taken out of context.

www.bbc.co.uk

But it's skipping D-day, and not this shit, that gets you in trouble.

 

[SpookyFrank]

My considered view is that you're right, that eventually a far right, Trumpian/Führagist Tory party will emerge as the government - and it's going to be shit. Unrelenting, diabolical shit. But that by voting Labour, by knocking on doors, by getting involved, you push that government further off into the future - that it's far better to live for 5, or 10, or 15 years under a frankly uninspiring Starmerite government, and then 5/10/15/forever under a Trumpian/Führagist authoritarian, dystopian nightmare, than it is by just accepting that Trumpian/Führagist hellscape right now because Starmer isn't going to nationalise the railways on day 4.

Starmer is absolutely critical to the project of dragging the country over to the far right. It's vital for Farage, Braverman and whoever else that the entire mainstream political spectrum is anti-worker and anti-immigration.

 

[Dogsauce]

Also if Farage and ReformUK beat the Conservatives in percentage points of votes yet get a minuscule number of seats this will highlight the inadequacies of our present electoral system FPTP and there will be an outcry and a demand for Proportional Representation.

And we will piss ourselves laughing at their utter hypocrisy when they start demanding this, having taken advantage of it for decades when there was a reasonably solid left-of-centre majority in the country.

 

[tim]

Too late now, but both UKIP and the Heritage Party are standing against Farage.

A reflection of the fact that people who have been politically associated with him in the past all seen to hate him. The Tory Party has for long been a very unhappy place. Farage would bring even more discord were he to join.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

But it's skipping D-day, and not this shit, that gets you in trouble.

Well that and being Prime Minister as against a minor party no-hoper.

 

[Rob Ray]

See, you use all this thinking, but everyone knows there's absolutely no difference whatsoever about life under the Blair/Brown/Starmer governments and that under a potential Führage government because neither Blair, Brown or Starmer conform to the resolutions of a 17th International, held in a phone box in Neasdon on a Thursday night in February 1983.

/PetulantUrbanTeenager mode off.

I wonder if the liberal set will ever cotton on that sneering at people for not joining the long march to centrism as the only possible option to stop the far right is actually highly productive for the far right. You'd have thought Tea Party --- Trump, Berlusconi --- Meloni, the direction of Euro elections and soon Macron's ouster might have been a tip off, but not so far ...

 

[brogdale]

Starmer is absolutely critical to the project of dragging the country over to the far right. It's vital for Farage, Braverman and whoever else that the entire mainstream political spectrum is anti-worker and anti-immigration.

I'd go a little further in saying that a Starmer-led "Labour" government is a metric of the success of the right-wing, neoliberal project. If, when the electorate inevitably seek change, all they get is a vaguely watered-down version of what the right would implement; what's not to like for the right?

 

[DaveCinzano]

Economically they are my kids with a credit card, and politically they are Reform with more sex cases.

Someone from the Comms team at Matthew Parker Street just called - they're looking for a radical change to their messaging and think you might have what it takes

 

[skyscraper101]

I wonder how the racist contingent will take it. They like their tokens, but only to a point. These are people who chose Liz Truss over Sunak, remember.

I don't really buy the racial element here. Maybe a very small contingent, but my feeling is they overwhelmingly went for Truss because she spoke to their simplistic notions of low taxes / high growth. I don't think anyone was knives out for Sunak because of his ethnicity, it's that he was seen as some sort of pragmatist (and back stabber of their hero Johnson). Full of loons more than racists IMO.

 

[PR1Berske]

See, you use all this thinking, but everyone knows there's absolutely no difference whatsoever about life under the Blair/Brown/Starmer governments and that under a potential Führage government because neither Blair, Brown or Starmer conform to the resolutions of a 17th International, held in a phone box in Neasdon on a Thursday night in February 1983.

/PetulantUrbanTeenager mode off.

My considered view is that you're right, that eventually a far right, Trumpian/Führagist Tory party will emerge as the government - and it's going to be shit. Unrelenting, diabolical shit. But that by voting Labour, by knocking on doors, by getting involved, you push that government further off into the future - that it's far better to live for 5, or 10, or 15 years under a frankly uninspiring Starmerite government, and then 5/10/15/forever under a Trumpian/Führagist authoritarian, dystopian nightmare, than it is by just accepting that Trumpian/Führagist hellscape right now because Starmer isn't going to nationalise the railways on day 4.

Successful politics is the realisation that you can either have some of what you want, some that you aren't happy with, and a bit of what you really don't like, or you can have none of what you want, and a lot of what you really can't live with - and that one of those is very much better than the other.

Exactly this.

I prefer electoral politics over anything else. Trump is very close to a victory and there's a very real chance that the US won't see another election again. He's that extreme.

I fully sign up to your closing paragraph.

 

[Rob Ray]

Exactly this.

I prefer electoral politics over anything else. Trump is very close to a victory and there's a very real chance that the US won't see another election again. He's that extreme.

I fully sign up to your closing paragraph.

Can you think of any historic reasons why, despite everything, Trump is neck and neck with Biden today?

 

[ska invita]

I wonder if the liberal set will ever cotton on that sneering at people for not joining the long march to centrism as the only possible option to stop the far right is actually highly productive for the far right. You'd have thought Tea Party --- Trump, Berlusconi --- Meloni, the direction of Euro elections and soon Macron's ouster might have been a tip off, but not so far ...

If for the sake of shorthand we take the leaders of centrism to be the PMC, the one thing I think is a defining factor of these kind of people is that their arrogance and self certainty is nuclear proof.... It's that certainty that's got them to where they are in the world and absolutely nothing other than perhaps being buried in the ground up to the neck and fed nothing but ayahuasca will change that