Is the Tory Era Over? Farage Predicts Massive Shift to Reform

[nino_savatte]

Quite. Anyone would think... nah, surely not?

 

[mojo pixy]

I keep reading the thread title as

Farage Predicts Massive Shit to Reform

and it's so apposite I just can't stop seeing it

 

[MickiQ]

The Frog Lord's attempts to persuade people that he is still even slightly relevant are getting rather sad these days

 

[CooltanRefugee]

Meh. One or other of the main parties is always over for the foreseeable, never coming back etc. And yet here they both are still.

yes the main parties reform from within when they feel they have to. they'll stay around. But UKIP is still the best UK example of a radical 'wedge' party getting results. They're trying to do the difficult second album (or third, it may be). It may never work for them again. But the left has never managed it, for all the small parties it's launched. Neither has the animal welfare party, the women's party etc.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Loathe as I am to say it, the Führage is probably correct (broadly) in that if you are are Mr or Mrs Suburban looking for a centrist dad bank manager government, you ain't going to be voting Tory anytime in the next decade because the Tories have wedded themselves to gloriously incompetent chaos.

Economically they are my kids with a credit card, and politically they are Reform with more sex cases.

Personally I think Reform as a vehicle will simply flow into the Tories, with Reform and it's weirdos taking over the party machine (to the extent that it's voters haven't done so already), and Falange almost certainly becoming leader for the 2030 GE with a supporting cast of Truss, Braverman etc...

My people, centrist dad Tories/ex-tories, aren't going to vote for that type of stuff - think the post -97 Tory vote collapse, but on steroids.

Under FPTP there is no prospect of Reform (or any other party for that matter) dislodging the two main parties. The Tories in opposition will enter open civil war (although the civil war is pretty evident in government to be fair) over the future of the Party. The fight will be over a populist party guided by the ideas of the new right with a leader like Baddenoch/Jenrick (under those conditions Farage and co will be influential and will flow in to the Tories, but seriously he's not going to be the leader) and relentlessly promoted by the new right on social media or will they coalesce under a programme of right centrism led by some like Mordaunt and enjoy legacy media rehabilitation.

The existential bit is that it's hard to see how they win an election in either circumstance. There currently isn't a big enough mass in the UK ready for a populist right party, although it would be more competitive a) than the current leadership and b) will become even more popular after 5 years of flaccid Starmerism/Reeves brand of supply side economics. But, a revitalised centrist party would be in a crowded marketplace.

Like Labour is 2015, a split in the Tory ranks over the soul of the party seems inevitable. But, like Labour, if one happens it’ll go nowhere.

 

[Dogsauce]

A lot of people won’t forgive them for fucking the economy, and they do have some significant culpability for this, more so than Gordon Brown did yet people went on about that for at least a decade. It’s a long road back.

 

[Rob Ray]

Given the very high likelihood that Labour will faceplant directly out of the gate (because none of of the mainstream press apart form the Guardian is going to give Starmer a honeymoon period) and find itself in a constant state of sub-Thick of It crisis over the next four years my personal fear is that Reform's showing will empower the Tory hard right which, backed by the Telegraph, Mail, Standard etc, could grab power by bringing in a new set of faces and a Meloni-style appeal against incomeptent technocracy, backed by the broader EU shift right. I could very easily see 2028-9 becoming an absolute shitshow.

 

[kebabking]

I think it'll be the chaos of endless PM's, the Truss/lettuce/mortgages thing, and possibly most visceral, the COVID rule breaking thing.

I think these things have far greater traction than the economy thing because a) economies eventually break, it's what they do, however much you might criticise this or that policy that contributed to the economy breaking, and b) the above stuff is why a good slice of toryland votes Tory: they want sensible, boring, moderately competent, rule of law government (that safeguards what they see at their interests...).

They want bank managers, not political agitators - and it's worth, I think, restating quite how divorced the Tory membership is from the 'broad Tory church 'electorate: There's barely any constituency party membership left that isn't far more UKIP/Brexit/Reform than it is the 'old' Tory party of Hague/Cameron/May. Truss, Johnson and Führage are their idols - and most interestingly, the membership genuinely believes that these people are vote winners.

 

[Dogsauce]

Given the very high likelihood that Labour will faceplant directly out of the gate (because none of of the mainstream press apart form the Guardian is going to give Starmer a honeymoon period) and find itself in a constant state of sub-Thick of It crisis over the next four years my personal fear is that Reform's showing will empower the Tory hard right which, backed by the Telegraph, Mail, Standard etc, could grab power by bringing in a new set of faces and a Meloni-style appeal against incomeptent technocracy, backed by the broader EU shift right. I could very easily see 2028-9 becoming an absolute shitshow.

My suspicion is that the far-right European project coordinated by Bannon etc. hasn’t really thrown much effort into the UK yet, because the Tory party has been singing their tune to some extent. Wiith Starmer in power the gloves will come off, dark money will flow, bots will bot and we’ll start seeing more large scale reactionary protests akin to the yellow vest/ fuel protest stuff. Most of the press will play along either ideologically or just for the clicks.

 

[ska invita]

My suspicion is that the far-right European project coordinated by Bannon etc. hasn’t really thrown much effort into the UK yet, because the Tory party has been singing their tune to some extent. Wiith Starmer in power the gloves will come off, dark money will flow, bots will bot and we’ll start seeing more large scale reactionary protests akin to the yellow vest/ fuel protest stuff. Most of the press will play along either ideologically or just for the clicks.

its an interesting prediction, might come to pass, things can always get worse, but I would challenge that it hasnt been happening in the UK up till now....hard to quantify but the right-of-the-conservatives political sphere has exploded in the last decade in the UK from what I can see

 

[Rob Ray]

I think the UK far-right has had a different experience because the focus has been on winning specific concessions within the structures of power (Brexit, immigration, tax, transphobia) rather than capturing it. But all the infrastructure is there to shift to a more Bannonite model once they gain their greatest desire and become the Oppressed Outsiders rather than carrying the faintly absurd whiff of screaming about how hard done by you are from a 14-year-long pulpit of people doing roughly what you wanted.

 

[hash tag]

"and that "a vote for Reform is a vote for Keir Starmer".
BBC News - MP 'suspended after endorsing Reform UK candidate'

MP Lucy Allan 'suspended after endorsing Reform UK candidate'

Lucy Allan says she quit the Conservatives in order to endorse Reform's Alan Adams.

www.bbc.com

 

[Hollis]

The other thing to remember is that there is a growing number of young men who are being groomed into right-wing and misogynistic beliefs on social media. The far right is investing a lot in this and it may pay out.

Maybe. But I do wonder how much of the Andrew Tate fanboi stuff survives late adolescence, having a partner and family, or just exposure to life beyond social media.

Personally, I hope Reform is still a protest vote, and with the Tories in a mess they're still scraping 10%. It will be interesting if the LibDems become the official opposition... because then things could go one of two ways..

 

[ska invita]

Maybe. But I do wonder how much of the Andrew Tate fanboi stuff survives late adolescence, having a partner and family, or just exposure to life beyond social media.

I agree on that - however - look at mainland europe and what the far right are achieving in electoral politics there - that also includes archaic church taught male and female roles etc as part of its cultural groundwork. That may not be full on Tate poison but its a slightly watered down version of the same

 

[ska invita]

Read an interesting speculation today - a what if - what if Labour has now fully occupied the political position that the Conservatives held in the 90s and become the defacto centre right party into the future...

The Conservatives are unable to do anything now other than become a party of the further/far right, certainly will be drawn ever closer and close to UKIP/REFORM etc.

Labour in power will only consolidate their centre right credentials. Control over the party will be iron fisted. The notion of Labour as a political coalition laid to rest once and for all. Centre right politics will be cemented at every step.

The Tories will be doomed, with their electoral base basically ageing and dying off, and never able to tack nearer the old centre right that they once occupied.

The space to the left of Labour will become cavernous.

 

[Petcha]

Reform are now polling 6 points behind the Tories and gaining. And yet due to our ridiculous electoral system probably won't win a single seat. Farage has gifted Starmer the swing he needs by splitting the right. Cheers Nige.

 

[Saul Goodman]

Read an interesting speculation today - a what if - what if Labour has now fully occupied the political position that the Conservatives held in the 90s and become the defacto centre right party into the future...

The Conservatives are unable to do anything now other than become a party of the further/far right, certainly will be drawn ever closer and close to UKIP/REFORM etc.

Labour in power will only consolidate their centre right credentials. Control over the party will be iron fisted. The notion of Labour as a political coalition laid to rest once and for all. Centre right politics will be cemented at every step.

The Tories will be doomed, with their electoral base basically ageing and dying off, and never able to tack nearer the old centre right that they once occupied.

The space to the left of Labour will become cavernous.

That seems like exactly what's happening. A labour government that Thatcher would be proud of.
The far left is a dead duck but never underestimate the far right vote.

 

[Balbi]

Reform are now polling 6 points behind the Tories and gaining. And yet due to our ridiculous electoral system probably won't win a single seat. Farage has gifted Starmer the swing he needs by splitting the right. Cheers Nige.

To be fair he did the same favour to Johnson in 2019 by only standing against Remain Tories and Labour MPs, if you look at the "red wall" stuff the diff between the Tories and Labour was often the Brexit Party vote split.

It's now he's just going to finally try and stamp on the Tory party's neck.

 

[Epona]

(cough) - grand total of .... two council seats.

Grand total of 3 posts from the OP

 

[Petcha]

He's the ultimate troll, got to give him credit there

 

[Petcha]

We could be in a situation where he wins more of the popular vote across the country than the Tories and still end up with no presence in the Commons. Sometimes our fucked up first past the post system does work I guess.

Our model shows Reform UK performing strongly in a number of seats but still a long way off winning in any. Our current model puts the right-wing party in second place in 27 seats, including eleven seats in Yorkshire (e.g. Barnsley North, Barnsley South, Doncaster North) and eight in the North East (e.g. Hartlepool, Houghton and Sunderland South).

First YouGov MRP of 2024 general election shows Labour on track to beat 1997 landslide | YouGov

Not only would Starmer’s majority be bigger than the number Tony Blair achieved in 1997 (179), but it would in fact be the second largest majority in British political history after Stanley Baldwin’s figure of 210 in 1924.

yougov.co.uk

 

[existentialist]

Nigel Farage predicts a drastic political shift, with Reform UK poised to snatch nearly all of the Conservative vote in the next general election. Following significant performances in the local elections, Farage sees Reform evolving into the main rival against Labour. "The argument that a vote for Reform is a wasted vote has almost disappeared," says Farage. As the Tories reel from recent losses, the momentum builds for Reform.

Ed: spammy link removed

I think you should stop playing with yourself.

 

[existentialist]

Isn't it odd how he's not engaged in any discussion?

These cunts only engage in discussion on their terms.

 

[PR1Berske]

The greatest trick the right wing pull is coming across as "blokes down the pub". Griffin, Robinson, Farage, and of course Trump, all campaigning on grievance and revenge having weaponised nostalgia (how do you make America great again? stop people of colour from voting and restrict abortion. how does Britannia rule the waves? Sidestep parliament and get an elite coterie to rubber stamp everything, bugger the little people).

 

[8ball]

The greatest trick the right wing pull is coming across as "blokes down the pub". Griffin, Robinson, Farage, and of course Trump, all campaigning on grievance and revenge having weaponised nostalgia (how do you make America great again? stop people of colour from voting and restrict abortion. how does Britannia rule the waves? Sidestep parliament and get an elite coterie to rubber stamp everything, bugger the little people).

You missed Johnson imo.

Tbh I can only see Farage as “bloke down the pub” out of the examples you have given. The others being “cunt banned from the pub” and “cunt no one talks to at the pub”.

 

[PR1Berske]

You missed Johnson imo.

Tbh I can only see Farage as “bloke down the pub” out of the examples you have given. The others being “cunt banned from the pub” and “cunt no one talks to at the pub”.

Fair about Johnson.

 

[Serge Forward]

Maybe a stretch but I can sort of see the possibility of the Tories going the way of the Italian Christian Democrats with groups like Refuk filling in as the UK version of La Liga or Fratelli to take their place. Meanwhile, the likes of Braverman, Truss, etc would move to the more openly fash type party while more "moderate" Tories drift towards Labour and Lib Dems

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

its an interesting prediction, might come to pass, things can always get worse, but I would challenge that it hasnt been happening in the UK up till now....hard to quantify but the right-of-the-conservatives political sphere has exploded in the last decade in the UK from what I can see

Although having said that, this thread has just reminded me that I need to update my letterbox.

Years ago, the neighbourhood grapevine was discussing how our posties had to deliver election propaganda campaign materials, even from the BNP, which folk in the neighbourhood thought was awful in the context of our mixed-race postie and colleagues not being able to opt out of the Royal Mail's legal obligation to deliver such materials.

I didn't want postie to think I agreed with or voted for them, and I wanted him to have justification to not deliver it through my letterbox, so I put strip of masking tape on my letterbox and wrote 'No BNP leaflets, thank you'.

In the years since, I've had to update it to 'No Brexit or BNP leaflets, thank you' and then 'No UKIP, Brexit or BNP leaflets, thank you'.

Now I need to update it to 'No Reform, UKIP, Brexit or BNP leaflets, thank you'.

It gives me some small comfort that they've come and gone, faded into obscurity, hopefully Reform is next.

Although conversely, these right-wing parties (and their media enablers) seem to have shifted the Overton window further rightwards.

 

[Don Baumgarten]

Although having said that, this thread has just reminded me that I need to update my letterbox.

Years ago, the neighbourhood grapevine was discussing how our posties had to deliver election propaganda campaign materials, even from the BNP, which folk in the neighbourhood thought was awful in the context of our mixed-race postie and colleagues not being able to opt out of the Royal Mail's legal obligation to deliver such materials.

I didn't want postie to think I agreed with or voted for them, and I wanted him to have justification to not deliver it through my letterbox, so I put strip of masking tape on my letterbox and wrote 'No BNP leaflets, thank you'.

In the years since, I've had to update it to 'No Brexit or BNP leaflets, thank you' and then 'No UKIP, Brexit or BNP leaflets, thank you'.

Now I need to update it to 'No Reform, UKIP, Brexit or BNP leaflets, thank you'.

It gives me some small comfort that they've come and gone, faded into obscurity, hopefully Reform is next.

Although conversely, these right-wing parties (and their media enablers) seem to have shifted the Overton window further rightwards.

You’ll always have these cranks clinging to their sad politics, the only reason we hear about them so often is that a fair few cretins with money and/or influence propagate this kak.

If anything they help foster the idea of community when people such as yourself and those in your community show solidarity to one another. Especially when:

(cough) - grand total of .... two council seats.

this is the result of their campaigning

 

[8ball]

Although having said that, this thread has just reminded me that I need to update my letterbox.

Years ago, the neighbourhood grapevine was discussing how our posties had to deliver election propaganda campaign materials, even from the BNP, which folk in the neighbourhood thought was awful in the context of our mixed-race postie and colleagues not being able to opt out of the Royal Mail's legal obligation to deliver such materials.

I didn't want postie to think I agreed with or voted for them, and I wanted him to have justification to not deliver it through my letterbox, so I put strip of masking tape on my letterbox and wrote 'No BNP leaflets, thank you'.

In the years since, I've had to update it to 'No Brexit or BNP leaflets, thank you' and then 'No UKIP, Brexit or BNP leaflets, thank you'.

Now I need to update it to 'No Reform, UKIP, Brexit or BNP leaflets, thank you'.

It gives me some small comfort that they've come and gone, faded into obscurity, hopefully Reform is next.

Although conversely, these right-wing parties (and their media enablers) seem to have shifted the Overton window further rightwards.

Do you need the Tory leaflets to line the rabbit hutch or something?