The Reform UK Party (latest nigel farage vehicle) is it to be laughed at or not

[andysays]

In a situation where the Tories are the largest party by seats? Yes. Formally, within the UK system, the existing PM carries on if there is a hung parliament, and it is up to them to resign if they cannot find a way to govern. Convention has it that the outgoing PM then recommends that the leader of the largest opposition party be invited to attempt to form a government.

https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/hung-parliament/

This being the UK, these are conventions rather than constitutional absolutes, but that is how it would go down. At no point would Farage be asked to attempt to form a government if the Tories had more seats than Reform. If the Tories are the largest party by seats, that means they will necessarily have increased their seat number from what it is now, quite probably by a significant number. This isn't a situation in which the Tories are collapsing - it's a situation in which they are somewhat recovering. So a tory leader goes to the King and suggests a government in which that tory leader is not the PM? No, I don't see the circumstances in which they would simultaneously a) be in a position to do that as leader of the largest party and b) be so weak as not to be able to propose themselves as PM.

Within this hypothetical scenario, it is still possible that Farage says Reform won't support a Tory-led coalition unless he's PM, but he is willing to put together his own coalition with himself as PM.

The constitutional conventions that you mention only really relate to the order in which party leaders are given the opportunity to form a government. Farage wouldn't be the first to be given chance, but if other options aren't successful, he may still get one in the end.

I don't think this will actually happen, but it won't be prevented by constitutional convention.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Within this hypothetical scenario, it is still possible that Farage says Reform won't support a Tory-led coalition unless he's PM, but he is willing to put together his own coalition with himself as PM.

The constitutional conventions that you mention only really relate to the order in which party leaders are given the opportunity to form a government. Farage wouldn't be the first to be given chance, but if other options aren't successful, he may still get one in the end.

I don't think this will actually happen, but it won't be prevented by constitutional convention.

The point being that he would not be asked before the Tories are asked. So the tories agree to a coalition with Farage as PM after having offered a coalition with him as, say, Home Secretary, and having had that rejected? These are very unlikely scenarios. And within this hypothetical, the Tories would be pleased to be the biggest party again. I stress that point as it is important - they would not be collapsing.

 

[emanymton]

Within this hypothetical scenario, it is still possible that Farage says Reform won't support a Tory-led coalition unless he's PM, but he is willing to put together his own coalition with himself as PM.

The constitutional conventions that you mention only really relate to the order in which party leaders are given the opportunity to form a government. Farage wouldn't be the

What about a situation in which the Tory party is falling apart and Farage could command a majority of Tory right, Ulster Unionsts and Reform. A majority doesn’t have to be all from the same party.

The 1922 committee might decide that Farage is the only option.

These would need the Tory party to split so they no longer have the highest number of seats.

 

[danny la rouge]

The Tory party is simultaneously falling apart and winning more seats in parliament?

Why not?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Why not?

Quite. The Labour Party won a lot of seats in July. It was unpopular at the time and even less popular now.

As things stand neither Labour, Tory or Reform are likely to poll above 30% at the next GE

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Quite. The Labour Party won a lot of seats in July. It was unpopular at the time and even less popular now.

Yes, and not a hint of falling apart. Not even a hint of humility after receiving just one third of the votes.

In terms of unlikely scenarios, I could see some form of National Government of Tories and Labour as a more likely scenario than a Tory/Reform coalition with the Tories the larger party and Farage as PM. I stress that I see both as unlikely but the latter vanishingly so.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

In a situation where the Tories are the largest party by seats? Yes. Formally, within the UK system, the existing PM carries on if there is a hung parliament, and it is up to them to resign if they cannot find a way to govern (this helps to explain Ramsay MacDonald, btw, as he was already the PM before he ended up governing as the leader of a rump National Labour party with a couple of dozen MPs). Convention has it that the outgoing PM then recommends that the leader of the largest opposition party be invited to attempt to form a government.

https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/hung-parliament/

This being the UK, these are conventions rather than constitutional absolutes, but that is how it would go down. At no point would Farage be asked to attempt to form a government if the Tories had more seats than Reform. If the Tories are the largest party by seats, that means they will necessarily have increased their seat number from what it is now, quite probably by a significant number. This isn't a situation in which the Tories are collapsing - it's a situation in which they are somewhat recovering. So a tory leader goes to the King and suggests a government in which that tory leader is not the PM? No, I don't see the circumstances in which they would simultaneously a) be in a position to do that as leader of the largest party and b) be so weak as not to be able to propose themselves as PM.

I think that what will happen is Labour will just scrape through the next election, with Reform taking a huge chunk of seats. What’s left of the Tories will merge with them, and Farage will walk into number 10 at the following election.

 

[moochedit]

I know this keeps coming up but has anyone got to the bottom of it. I am not signed into Twitter and I can see them I’m using an iPhone. Safari browser.

I am not signed in to "x" either and i can see them ok on android chrome.

 

[kenny g]

It's a VERY different system in the US.

The FPTP system makes things very hard for new entrants to get anywhere near a majority, the electoral map maths doesn't show how Reform can do it, they would need to take a lot of seats right across the south, but they are next to nowhere in most counties.

They have as much chance of getting a majority, as I have of winning the National Lottery, which I don't even play.

The US primaries plus electoral college system isn't exactly PR either. Trump's original victory jumped more or at least equivalent hurdles than and to those thrown up by FTP.

 

[kenny g]

I think that what will happen is Labour will just scrape through the next election, with Reform taking a huge chunk of seats. What’s left of the Tories will merge with them, and Farage will walk into number 10 at the following election.

That is a 9 year crystal ball your holding. Nige isn't old but he is hardly a picture of health. Based on his current trajectory I would bet more on him pushing up dandelions by that stage.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

That is a 9 year crystal ball your holding. Nige isn't old but he is hardly a picture of health. Based on his current trajectory I would bet more on him pushing up dandelions by that stage.

One can but hope

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The US primaries plus electoral college system isn't exactly PR either. Trump's original victory jumped more or at least equivalent hurdles than and to those thrown up by FTP.

Not really. He won the nomination of one of the two established parties. Actual outsiders usually get nowhere near leaping those hurdles. Perot came closest in recent times but still wasn't that near really. Meanwhile the two houses are totally dominated by those two parties. A couple of independent senators who are allied with the Dems. Is there anyone else?

 

[emanymton]

Not really. He won the nomination of one of the two established parties. Actual outsiders usually get nowhere near leaping those hurdles. Perot came closest in recent times but still wasn't that near really. Meanwhile the two houses are totally dominated by those two parties. A couple of independent senators who are allied with the Dems. Is there anyone else?

Yep, in the UK as with the US the populist right will come into power (arguably already did with Johnson) as part of the existing main party of the right not from outside it.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Yep, in the UK as with the US the populist right will come into power (arguably already did with Johnson) as part of the existing main party ii the right not from outside it.

Yes, the point I would stress is that 'already did' bit.

You should never say never as established parties can collapse. The Liberals did here 100 years ago. More recently, both established parties collapsed in France. But the Tories have been around for an awfully long time. I wouldn't bet against them coming back from this recent low.

 

[emanymton]

Yes, the point I would stress is that 'already did' bit.

You should never say never as established parties can collapse. The Liberals did here 100 years ago. More recently, both established parties collapsed in France. But the Tories have been around for an awfully long time. I wouldn't bet against them coming back from this recent low.

I'm prepared to admit I could be totally wrong and they collapse further, but I see them recovering a lot in the next election. I wouldn't be surprised if Reform actually loose seats at the next election.


As with UKIP I think Farage and the like can succeed without actually winning much if you know what I mean.

 

[brogdale]

I'm prepared to admit I could be totally wrong and they collapse further, but I see them recovering a lot in the next election. I wouldn't be surprised if Reform actually loose seats at the next election.


As with UKIP I think Farage and the like can succeed without actually winning much if you know what I mean.

Current polling that suggests the vermin might add 100 seats to their GE 2024 tally showing that dissatisfaction with Starmer's LP will inevitably translate into some degree of electoral progress for the vermin. But that same polling also suggests significant progress for the refUKers; as of now I can't see them going backwards in terms of seats.

 

[brogdale]

Talk about the script being written for the Faragists...

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Talk about the script being written for the Faragists...

View attachment 457720

Explains why, like with the WASPI women, Badenoch has been so muted. On both issues there isn’t a gnat’s bollock between them and Starmer and co.

As you say, Farage and co must be struggling to believe their luck.

 

[emanymton]

Current polling that suggests the vermin might add 100 seats to their GE 2024 tally showing that dissatisfaction with Starmer's LP will inevitably translate into some degree of electoral progress for the vermin. But that same polling also suggests significant progress for the refUKers; as of now I can't see them going backwards in terms of seats.

We will see, people may switch back to the Tories to avoid splitting the vote. How likely that is, is one of the big open questions.

 

[pbsmooth]

Talk about the script being written for the Faragists...

View attachment 457720

Hence it being brought up by Musk and co, I guess.

 

[steeplejack]

A second challenge that I do think Reform have is that they are very much built around Farage. That is something that may change but if he fell in front of a bus tomorrow then the wheels come could off the whole thing - as they did with UKIP after Farage left.

Very true-easy to forget that Reform were flatlining irrelevances under the previous ‘leader’, Tice, who had all the popularity and charm of MK Dons.

Farage’s ego will block what Reform need for long term viability- a succession plan.

 

[brogdale]

Hence it being brought up by Musk and co, I guess.

Yeah, Musk seems very determined to promote this racist wedge-issue. He seems unaware or uncaring that the issue of alignment with SYL has actually been a crucial point of divergence between the refUKers and the rump UKIP crowd.

 

[Lotte]

Musk is also the same guy who hung out with Ghislaine Maxwell and Jeffrey Epstein, but he's OK with grooming kids when the right people do it.

 

[The39thStep]

Perhaps its time to consider some transparency legislation on foreign funding of political parties and NGOs

 

[Lotte]

Talk about the script being written for the Faragists...

View attachment 457720

It's so fucking transparent why Badenoch is calling for it now. Farage lives rent free in her head.

 

[brogdale]

"...no tweets…on this..."

 

[cupid_stunt]

"...no tweets…on this..."


View attachment 457813

It's certainly caused a problem for Farage, because as you pointed out up the page, he really doesn't like SYL/TR, nor want any association with him or any of those EDL/BNP types that support him, the Telegraph has highlighted the issue.

Why Musk’s love-in with Tommy Robinson presents a problem for Nigel Farage

On Boxing Day, Nigel Farage was describing Elon Musk as “a bloody hero” and confirming that he was expecting a “reasonable-sized donation” from the billionaire to Reform UK.

Barely a week later, Mr Musk’s love-in with Mr Farage’s party is looking a little awkward. Mr Musk, who began the day accusing Sir Keir Starmer of failing to go after grooming gangs, ended it by calling for the release of the far-Right activist Tommy Robinson, who was jailed in October for contempt of court for repeating false allegations against a Syrian refugee.

Mr Musk retweeted posts describing Robinson as a “political prisoner” and separately said: “Britain needs Reform now!”

Nor is this a case of personal animus, which might be easier for Mr Farage to compartmentalise.

Mr Farage left Ukip because its then-leader Gerard Batten had appointed Robinson as an adviser and had become “pretty obsessed with the issue of Islam, not just Islamic extremism, but Islam, and Ukip wasn’t founded to be a party fighting a religious crusade”. “[He is] also obsessed with this figure Tommy Robinson.”

Is he now worried that Mr Musk has similarly become obsessed with Robinson? We do not know, as Mr Farage has not yet publicly responded to Mr Musk’s tweets in support of Robinson (whose adopted name was borrowed from a prominent football hooligan).

Zia Yusuf, Reform UK’s chairman, is a Muslim. What will he make of Mr Musk’s support for a man who has called Islam “a fascist and violent religion”?

Mr Farage has made his views on Tommy Robinson plain. He is toxic and so is everything he stands for. The problem is that a perception could quickly – no matter how wrongly – grow that because Mr Farage is close to Mr Musk, Mr Farage must also be a supporter of Robinson.

And, this is going to be the interesting bit...

It seems likely that Mr Farage will quietly warn his new friend that Robinson is bad news. Whether or not Mr Musk takes heed is another matter.

If Mr Musk fails to publicly distance himself from Robinson, Mr Farage will have a serious decision to make, part of which will be whether it would be right to accept the money he is now expecting from Mr Musk – money which could be transformative for Reform UK.

In the meantime, Conservatives who warned that Mr Farage would come to regret cosying up to Mr Musk might well be allowing themselves a satisfied smile.

..

 

[Lotte]

...why the fuck does he want to put Phillips in prison?

 

[ddraig]

...why the fuck does he want to put Phillips in prison?

for not doing a national inquiry into grooming gangs

 

[Lotte]

The Tories had their chance. They turned it down. I don't see him calling for them to be jailed. 'Jess Phillips is a rape genocide apologist who's protecting the gangs'. But the Tories who were in government and turned the enquiry down, they're not?