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The Reform UK Party (latest nigel farage vehicle) is it to be laughed at or not

Apparently Reform is currently doing a nationwide tour of regional conferences, and the spat with Badenoch looks like it going to escalate at one of those tonight, according to the The Spectator, which has always been considered to be the Tory party magazine, but since being taken over by the main backer of GB News, has been running a lot of articles on Reform.

And now Farage has escalated the row further. Ahead of his party’s regional conference in Leicester this afternoon, the Reform leader has taken to Twitter to take another pop at the Tory leader - “An apology has not been forthcoming from Kemi Badenoch regarding her crazy conspiracy theories about Reform UK. I will be giving my full response at a sold out conference tonight in Leicester.

In another nod to his new friend Musk, Farage has also promised all those interested but unable to attend that the event will be broadcast live on Twitter from 7pm this evening. Stay tuned…"An apology has not been forthcoming from @KemiBadenoch regarding her crazy conspiracy theories about Reform UK. I will be giving my full response at a sold out conference tonight in Leicester. The event will be LIVE on X from 7pm."
— Nigel Farage MP (@Nigel_Farage) January 3, 2025

 
Apparently Reform is currently doing a nationwide tour of regional conferences, and the spat with Badenoch looks like it going to escalate at one of those tonight, according to the The Spectator, which has always been considered to be the Tory party magazine, but since being taken over by the main backer of GB News, has been running a lot of articles on Reform.



The fucker's gonna milk Badenoch's stupidity for all it's worth. If any press are allowed to ask questions it would be good if they asked about the Musk/SYL connection.
 
Farage has decided not to sue Badenoch, which is a shame, as it would have been very entertaining.

Instead he's making her seat a target one, which if she's still leader of the Tories, would be funny if she lost, it'll hard to unseat her, but I guess not impossible if a load of Labour/LDs decided to lend their votes to Reform for the LOLz.

Speaking at the Reform UK East Midlands Conference in Leicester on Friday, Mr Farage told his backers: “I don’t take kindly to being accused of being dishonest.

“You can call me many things, and people do, and that’s fine, but don’t call me dishonest. I’m not and I never, ever have been.”

He added Ms Badenoch had “chosen not to take the opportunity” to apologise for her claim and his audience at the rally shouted “sue her” when Mr Farage asked: “What to do?”

The party leader, whose Clacton constituency also lies in Essex, continued: “It’s all well and good saying ‘sue her’ but you have to prove actual harm. She hasn’t harmed us. She’s given us tens of thousands more members.

“And we already have 800 supporters in her constituency, nearly 400 of whom have signed up as members, and we’ll do a big joint photograph and I’ll tell Kemi, not only are these not fake members, but we’re now going to make this a target constituency for the next general election.

“You had your chance.

“You accused me of being dishonest. You had your chance to apologise. Well now the gloves are off.”

And, the results at the GE were -

Ms Badenoch won North West Essex with 19,360 votes last July against Labour’s 16,750, majority 2,610.
Grant StClair-Armstrong came third with 7,668 votes.
He was listed as the Reform UK candidate but resigned from the party after the Times reported he previously called on voters online to elect the British National Party (BNP).

 
A Tim Bale piece about Summer 2024 polling of the demographics and values of refUKer members; no great surprises:

Just after the election, we – the Party Members Project run out of Queen Mary University of London and Sussex University – surveyed the members of five UK-wide political parties, including Reform UK. Here’s what we found.
They're:
  • Old
  • Predominantly "middle class"
  • Not very regionally biased except against London (just 5% of members from GL)
  • Traditionalist/authoritarian and self-identify as right-wing
  • Fairly similar to Tory members re. climate denial & immigration
  • >50% tax/public service cutters (more Tory than Tory members)
  • Keen on "big men" leaders inc. Farage, obvs
  • Less likely to be 'feet on the ground' activists than other party members
  • but more likely than other parties' members to promote online
That said, there must be a caveat that the rapid membership increases claimed by the party since the Summer may have altered some of these factors.
 
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The fucker's gonna milk Badenoch's stupidity for all it's worth. If any press are allowed to ask questions it would be good if they asked about the Musk/SYL connection.
Apparently Farage was asked about Musk's promotion of SYL and he didn't look very comfortable explaining how he/refUKers didn't share the enthusiasm...2:20 - 3:00 in this Youtube clip of last night's C4News:



Certainly a uncomfortable rift between Farage & Musk
 
Farage has decided not to sue Badenoch, which is a shame, as it would have been very entertaining.

Instead he's making her seat a target one, which if she's still leader of the Tories, would be funny if she lost, it'll hard to unseat her, but I guess not impossible if a load of Labour/LDs decided to lend their votes to Reform for the LOLz.

And, the results at the GE were -


A more effective way of unseating Badenoch would be for Reform supporters to vote Labour, but I very much doubt Farage will suggest that.
 
A more effective way of unseating Badenoch would be for Reform supporters to vote Labour, but I very much doubt Farage will suggest that.
Yes, because with the major exception of Badenoch being >10% up, these shares of the popular vote are not far away from the national averages for the 2024 GE, (LP 34%, Vermin 24%, refUKers 14% & LDs 12%).

1735987167624.png
 
Maybe this is all one big ruse to help Reform position itself as mainstream and reasonable alternative to Tories, by giving them a chance to say Tommy is too extreme etc. And of course just keeps Reform in the public eye. Trump playbook of constant news coverage.
 
Loser


A Tim Bale piece about Summer 2024 polling of the demographics and values of refUKer members; no great surprises:


They're:
  • Old
  • Predominantly "middle class"
  • Not very regionally biased except against London (just 5% of members from GL)
  • Traditionalist/authoritarian and self-identify as right-wing
  • Fairly similar to Tory members re. climate denial & immigration
  • >50% tax/public service cutters (more Tory than Tory members)
  • Keen on "big men" leaders inc. Farage, obvs
  • Less likely to be 'feet on the ground' activists than other party members
  • but more likely than other parties' members to promote online
That said, there must be a caveat that the rapid membership increases claimed by the party since the Summer may have altered some of these factors.
There's a longish thread on Twitter @Julius_Ktxt which has some data on Reform and other parties voting support in areas of multi depravation . There is a correlation and there is a correlation with education and qualification levels . Of course the biggest issue for areas of deprivation and low qualification levels is that the rate of non voting is normally more prevalent. That is where a populist party whether left or right could make a diffrence as centrism just doesnt cut it.

1735988383834.png
 
Maybe this is all one big ruse to help Reform position itself as mainstream and reasonable alternative to Tories, by giving them a chance to say Tommy is too extreme etc. And of course just keeps Reform in the public eye. Trump playbook of constant news coverage.
Could be, though I doubt it's all that sophisticated, tbh. More likely that the rich fella is just prone to promoting any old far-right bollox.
 
Maybe this is all one big ruse to help Reform position itself as mainstream and reasonable alternative to Tories, by giving them a chance to say Tommy is too extreme etc. And of course just keeps Reform in the public eye. Trump playbook of constant news coverage.
Ruse or not it has that effect
 
Loser



There's a longish thread on Twitter @Julius_Ktxt which has some data on Reform and other parties voting support in areas of multi depravation . There is a correlation and there is a correlation with education and qualification levels . Of course the biggest issue for areas of deprivation and low qualification levels is that the rate of non voting is normally more prevalent. That is where a populist party whether left or right could make a diffrence as centrism just doesnt cut it.

View attachment 458016
whats the bottom axis?
 
Has it though? They’ll take his cash without a seconds thought.

“Of course he may say some things we don’t agree with, that’s his right, free speech etc etc”
Oh yes, I'm not saying these psychopaths have any pangs or conscience regarding their source of funding, but that one tweet by Musk means that, what would have been unalloyed joy for the refUKers, now comes with constant media questioning and attention on the very thing by which Farage distinguished his company from UKIP and the Nazis.
 
Has it though? They’ll take his cash without a seconds thought.

“Of course he may say some things we don’t agree with, that’s his right, free speech etc etc”

Correct. The centrist attempt underway - which I have to say definitely has the whiff of panic to it - to cleave them apart is going to fail. Obviously for Reform there is a potentially serious financial upside, for Musk its influence and clear hatred for Starmer.

In respect of the Reform normalisation project this is, in fact, all good news for them. They’ve visibly rejected the organised far right, they’ve dominated social media for days and now they’ve got elite liberalism responding (pathetically badly it must be said) to its agenda.
 
one of the dynamics of the fascist creep is that association seems to work as a multiplier....we saw that when Trump sures up the KKK vote that doesnt seem to stop people voting for him and is overall good for the direction of the bigger project....puts clear water between him and the centrist-establishment-etc.

Compare to the factionalism of the left. I understand factionalism, it makes sense when you have a clear set of ideals, but the overall effect is fragmentation
 
one of the dynamics of the fascist creep is that association seems to work as a multiplier....we saw that when Trump sures up the KKK vote that doesnt seem to stop people voting for him and is overall good for the direction of the bigger project....puts clear water between him and the centrist-establishment-etc.

Compare to the factionalism of the left. I understand factionalism, it makes sense when you have a clear set of ideals, but the overall effect is fragmentation
so yeah you distance yourself when expedient and you do this

proof.png
 
one of the dynamics of the fascist creep is that association seems to work as a multiplier....we saw that when Trump sures up the KKK vote that doesnt seem to stop people voting for him and is overall good for the direction of the bigger project....puts clear water between him and the centrist-establishment-etc.
But it did.
There was a move from more centrist Republicans and independents away from Trump and the Republican Party (e.g. college educated white voters was one group that has moved towards the Democrats).
It is just that it has been more or less balanced by a move to the Republicans by non-voters and some conservative Democrat voters
 
But it did.
There was a move from more centrist Republicans and independents away from Trump and the Republican Party (e.g. college educated white voters was one group that has moved towards the Democrats).
It is just that it has been more or less balanced by a move to the Republicans by non-voters and some conservative Democrat voters

It’s also worth remembering that Reform is a start up challenging the two dominant parties of neoliberalism in the UK.

In comparison, Trump and the American right populists actually captured one of the dominant parties.

Very different starting points. The former is an insurgency project against both establishment parties. The latter is a consolidation project.
 
Maybe this is all one big ruse to help Reform position itself as mainstream and reasonable alternative to Tories, by giving them a chance to say Tommy is too extreme etc. And of course just keeps Reform in the public eye. Trump playbook of constant news coverage.
I don't think farage and musk are 8D chess players.
 
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