The Reform UK Party (latest nigel farage vehicle) is it to be laughed at or not

[nightowl]

They're pretty much hostage to fortune as far as Reform-as-rivals is concerned. Farage's offering is heavily based on reducing immigration, which is entirely dependent on global events. They may be significantly helped, or hindered, by the fall of Assad, for example. We're seeing this to a degree with the far-right parties which have risen and falled thus far - whatever they say about "getting tough" the reality is their levers are limited unless they want to go fully murderous, which none of them quite feel able to do (as yet).

This is the thing. Farage and co are clever enough to know that their hands are tied in doing anything in terms of mass deportations, taking an aggressive approach to the small boats etc. However, they are happy to act tough and promise their supporters (some of whom seem dumb enough to believe that the 'glory' days of the British Empire are returning) everything just to get into power. It will be interesting to see what will happen if they do and suddenly have to explain to their supporters that what they voted for isn't going to happen.

 

[MrsArcanum]

This is the thing. Farage and co are clever enough to know that their hands are tied in doing anything in terms of mass deportations, taking an aggressive approach to the small boats etc. However, they are happy to act tough and promise their supporters (some of whom seem dumb enough to believe that the 'glory' days of the British Empire are returning) everything just to get into power. It will be interesting to see what will happen if they do and suddenly have to explain to their supporters that what they voted for isn't going to happen.

He does have form for being useless in an elected role.

 

[Elpenor]

A useless elected representative perhaps, but very useful for his own ends and those of his backers

 

[brogdale]

I don't claim to have checked the veracity of this analysis, but this ElectoralCalculus post sets out the % of the popular vote that the refUKers require to gain electoral power.

With 28pc of the public's vote, just 6pc more than their current support, Reform would become the largest party in parliament with just under 200 seats. In this scenario, Reform could be governing in a coalition with the Conservatives, likely with Nigel Farage as Prime Minister and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch as a deputy Prime Minister.

If their vote share increases to 31pc, Reform would get an overall Commons majority. In this case, Reform could govern on their own and Nigel Farage would be Prime Minister and able to choose his cabinet freely. This would represent an exceptional scenario, as it would be the first time in over a century when neither of the two British mainstream parties, Labour or the Conservatives, would be in power.

 

[brogdale]

For some context, here is what I think was the last Westminster polling of 2024:

 

[Ax^]

hmm angry old white man party 3rd

they would be second if it was not for all the woke Stuff

 

[Dystopiary]

For some context, here is what I think was the last Westminster polling of 2024:

View attachment 457447

Yes.

Our final voting intention poll, conducted between 12th – 16th December, shows a four point decline in Labour’s share of the vote since the general election. While the Conservatives are up one point to 25%, the biggest beneficiaries are Reform UK. The Farage-led party has increased its share of the vote by 6% since the election.

2024 in Review: Labour’s Landslide, Rising Discontent, and the Challenge Ahead | Survation

 

[Elpenor]

hmm angry old white man party 3rd

they would be second if it was not for all the woke Stuff

Except if you read the link earlier posted by 39th step it’s not just that demographic voting reform

 

[Serene]

The latest nigel farage vehicle is a Kubelwagen which he has been seen driving along the south east coast.

 

[Ax^]

Except if you read the link earlier posted by 39th step it’s not just that demographic voting reform

well seeming as you were a little vague do you mean this one

UK and US look like the angry old men are still their

 

[moochedit]

I don't claim to have checked the veracity of this analysis, but this ElectoralCalculus post sets out the % of the popular vote that the refUKers require to gain electoral power.

Pretty sure badenoch would be gone in that senario. Farage is beefing with her already about the website counter stuff.

 

[krtek a houby]

First time for everything. I wouldn't put it past Farage to order boat to be gunned down.

Interesting.

What does andysays think?

 

[andysays]

Interesting.

What does andysays think?

I still think you were talking nonsense when you predicted just over a year ago* that Farage was a future PM.

I also think it's getting increasingly tedious that you continue to pursue this pathetic beef into the New Year, and I think you really should give it a fucking rest.

* I've now checked the details and it was back in December 2023, on the basis of a couple of bullshit articles by Matthew Anconda and someone relying heavily on the opinions of Emily Thornberry, and an unsourced claim that

Steve Bannon reckons he's got the making of a future PM, as well.

 

[redsquirrel]

I don't claim to have checked the veracity of this analysis, but this ElectoralCalculus post sets out the % of the popular vote that the refUKers require to gain electoral power.

There's something up with their predictions - how can the largest party estimate be a straight line?
The number of seats Reform will take for a given % will have to be related not only to their own vote share but the vote share of other parties (i.e. a shift from Con->Rfm will result in a different gain in seats to a Lab->Rfm).
The fact that they've not bothered to give any methodological information - well beyond "assuming that Labour and Conservative voters are equally likely to defect to Reform" - about how they've got these figures is also crap

 

[cupid_stunt]

For some context, here is what I think was the last Westminster polling of 2024:

View attachment 457447

This latest Survation poll puts Reform on 20%, and it's true that's +5% compared to the GE.

However the last Survation poll before the GE had Reform on 17%, so comparing those polls like-for-like, Reform is up by 'only' 3%, which is hardly surprising considering Labour's bad start in government, but doesn't give much support to the idea they could end up being the largest party at the next GE.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election

 

[brogdale]

There's something up with their predictions - how can the largest party estimate be a straight line?
The number of seats Reform will take for a given % will have to be related not only to their own vote share but the vote share of other parties (i.e. a shift from Con->Rfm will result in a different gain in seats to a Lab->Rfm).
The fact that they've not bothered to give any methodological information - well beyond "assuming that Labour and Conservative voters are equally likely to defect to Reform" - about how they've got these figures is also crap

Good points; the assumption of equal swing from both LP & Tories is, as you say, their only stated assumption. I still think that the pollsters will struggle with this trend towards genuine 3 party contests and particularly with respect to tactical opposition to the prospects of the far right.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Good points; the assumption of equal swing from both LP & Tories is, as you say, their only stated assumption. I still think that the pollsters will struggle with this trend towards genuine 3 party contests and particularly with respect to tactical opposition to the prospects of the far right.

BiB, and rather silly, because Tories inclined to vote Reform already did that, many just as a protest and to give a kicking to the Tories for the chaos of the last few years, I doubt there's any more Tory votes to gain, and that seems to be the view of Farage and Tice, far more likely there will be a swing back to Tories, especially if they replace Badenoch with a grown up.

 

[Rob Ray]

especially if they replace Badenoch with a grown up.

To a degree, but it'll be more important for them to work out their narrative. Atm they're still not sure if they want to be confidently centrist right debunking Farage and calling out false promises, or Sensible Faragism. Continuing with the latter, I think, would be disastrous because it was Sensible Faragism being an abject failure (missing the point, as it does, of the core offer) which landed them in the mess they're currently in. But four years is a fair while to do that.

 

[MrsArcanum]

A useless elected representative perhaps, but very useful for his own ends and those of his backers

Tufton Street needs sorting out one way or another.

 

[Pickman's model]

BiB, and rather silly, because Tories inclined to vote Reform already did that, many just as a protest and to give a kicking to the Tories for the chaos of the last few years, I doubt there's any more Tory votes to gain, and that seems to be the view of Farage and Tice, far more likely there will be a swing back to Tories, especially if they replace Badenoch with a grown up.

Casual ageism does you no favours. And looking what the 'adults' in government are doing, many people may feel that the 'children' should be given a chance at the next election

 

[cupid_stunt]

Casual ageism does you no favours. And looking what the 'adults' in government are doing, many people may feel that the 'children' should be given a chance at the next election

There's no casual ageism in my post.

She is clearly an adult, and of a similiar age to David Cameron when he became PM, but, unlike him, she acts like a child, regularly picking fights, and then sulking away when she's shown up to be an idiot, as she has done over the Reform membership numbers.

 

[Pickman's model]

There's no casual ageism in my post.

She is clearly an adult, and of a similiar age to David Cameron when he became PM, but, unlike him, she acts like a child, regularly picking fights, and then sulking away when she's shown up to be an idiot, as she has done over the Reform membership numbers.

How swiftly Cameron's abject refusal to engage with the result of the 2016 referendum is forgotten. And how easily you include casual ageism in your posts, as tho children's behaviour is predominantly characterised by regularly picking fights and sulking away.

 

[MrsArcanum]

There's no casual ageism in my post.

She is clearly an adult, and of a similiar age to David Cameron when he became PM, but, unlike him, she acts like a child, regularly picking fights, and then sulking away when she's shown up to be an idiot, as she has done over the Reform membership numbers.

The application of selective memory seems to have been inherited from her predecessors too. She definitely lacks political maturity on every level.

 

[cupid_stunt]

How swiftly Cameron's abject refusal to engage with the result of the 2016 referendum is forgotten. And how easily you include casual ageism in your posts, as tho children's behaviour is predominantly characterised by regularly picking fights and sulking away.

Now talking about children, run along silly boy.

 

[brogdale]

To a degree, but it'll be more important for them to work out their narrative. Atm they're still not sure if they want to be confidently centrist right debunking Farage and calling out false promises, or Sensible Faragism. Continuing with the latter, I think, would be disastrous because it was Sensible Faragism being an abject failure (missing the point, as it does, of the core offer) which landed them in the mess they're currently in. But four years is a fair while to do that.

Made all the more problematic for them by so little centrist-right water being open between them and the Starmer administration.

 

[Rob Ray]

Reckon that'll work itself out a bit as the media continues to pretend Labour is full of big-spending lefties - they'll have plenty of opportunity to bring in a few new faces and present themselves as Back to Business.

 

[brogdale]

Reckon that'll work itself out a bit as the media continues to pretend Labour is full of big-spending lefties - they'll have plenty of opportunity to bring in a few new faces and present themselves as Back to Business.

Well, I heard on the radio this morning that Economy specific polling had already reached cross-(back)-over with the vermin out-scoring the LP so, yeah that may be a strategy for them. But, the problem looks like Badenoch being a one-trick, culture war, pony and all her instincts will be to track right to face Farage.

 

[Rob Ray]

I agree she's a bad matchup - trying to win back the votes of the most bigoted culture-war brainrotted section of your coalition via a black woman, for a start, before you even get to her actual politics appearing to simply be half-arsed Farage with a petulant streak - and don't think she'll last.

 

[Pickman's model]

Now talking about children, run along silly boy.

You just can't stop yourself.

 

[Hollis]

The scales on the vertial axis are doing some heavy lifting here... quite disappointing from John Burn-Murdoch.