The Reform UK Party (latest nigel farage vehicle) is it to be laughed at or not

[danny la rouge]

Doesn't have to be, no. But some pretty extraordinary circumstances are needed to make it so.

Well like I said, I’m not predicting the circumstances needed. But I’m certainly not willing to rule them out either.

Like I said, all that’s needed is a Tory party without the arithmetic to govern alone, and without the “Uncontested Will of the People” to do so either. And with the way that Reform is driving the agenda, I don’t think it’s outlandish to imagine them in the position to demand the PM comes from their camp.

It’s perfectly plausible, with the help of the media.

 

[Funky_monks]

I know these people, too. I would say they're Never Labour voters. They don't even trust Lib Dems. Luckily we only get one vote each in spite of how much of the country we own, so there will continue to be pockets of self-serving right wingers who only speak to each other about the terrible tax-taking monsters in power. They will swither between tory and reform depending who's promising them and their cash the best deal. Not sure anything can be done about them, although I understand the French had some good ideas two or three hundred years ago.

I tend to use them as a barometer for dyed in the wool Tory voters. They make up the only instances in my life where I've met yer actual Tory Party members (As opposed to voters).

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Like I said, all that’s needed is a Tory party without the arithmetic to govern alone, and without the “Uncontested Will of the People” to do so either. And with the way that Reform is driving the agenda, I don’t think it’s outlandish to imagine them in the position to demand the PM comes from their camp.

Neither the Tories nor Labour have ever been remotely bothered by the fact that their seats mandate isn't a fair reflection of the vote share. I'm not sure they're going to start now.

 

[danny la rouge]

Neither the Tories nor Labour have ever been remotely bothered by the fact that their seats mandate isn't a fair reflection of the vote share. I'm not sure they're going to start now.

I wasn’t arguing that.

 

[Spymaster]

Define what you mean by 'someone like him', someone else in Reform?

I think it's far more likely than you or some others think possible, and certainly not a matter of lottery win odds. Politics has changed massively over the last decade and in the last 5 years in particular. A party that barely existed 7 years ago succeeded in what most thought was never going to happen and took Britain out of the EU. That was the forerunner to Reform. In their current guise they've just had 4 million people vote for them, come second in 100 odd seats, and just about to be dropped tens of millions of quid. All of this against a backdrop of a global shift to right wing populist politics. The old rules don't apply.

There's no comfort to be taken from vote maps and graphs and people on the internet banging-on about how fptp will prevent them forming a government. The old rules don't apply anymore. Reform are already a significant political force in the UK and are getting a lot stronger.

Read the first half dozen pages of this thread. Just 2 years ago people here were writing them off as a deposit-losing joke.

Not so fucking funny now is it?

 

[brogdale]

I think it's far more likely than you or some others think possible, and certainly not a matter of lottery win odds. Politics has changed massively over the last decade and in the last 5 years in particular. A party that barely existed 7 years ago succeeded in what most thought was never going to happen and took Britain out of the EU. That was the forerunner to Reform. In their current guise they've just had 4 million people vote for them, come second in 100 odd seats, and just about to be dropped tens of millions of quid. All of this against a backdrop of a global shift to right wing populist politics. The old rules don't apply.

There's no comfort to be taken from vote maps and graphs and people on the internet banging-on about how fptp will prevent them forming a government. The old rules don't apply anymore. Reform are already a significant political force in the UK and are getting a lot stronger.

Read the first half dozen pages of this thread. Just 2 years ago people here were writing them off as a deposit-losing joke.

Not so fucking funny now is it?

Eh? What you on about?

 

[cupid_stunt]

I think it's far more likely than you or some others think possible, and certainly not a matter of lottery win odds. Politics has changed massively over the last decade and in the last 5 years in particular. A party that barely existed 7 years ago succeeded in what most thought was never going to happen and took Britain out of the EU. That was the forerunner to Reform. In their current guise they've just had 4 million people vote for them, come second in 100 odd seats, and just about to be dropped tens of millions of quid. All of this against a backdrop of a global shift to right wing populist politics. The old rules don't apply.

There's no comfort to be taken from vote maps and graphs and people on the internet banging-on about how fptp will prevent them forming a government. The old rules don't apply anymore. Reform are already a significant political force in the UK and are getting a lot stronger.

Read the first half dozen pages of this thread. Just 2 years ago people here were writing them off as a deposit-losing joke.

Not so fucking funny now is it?

So, avoiding my question, come on explain what you you mean by 'someone like him'.

 

[brogdale]

The GL & RoSEland view of that MiC MRP shows the refUKers holding & gaining in Essex/Thames "gateway" and the small-boats coast. btw, I've sometimes had the misfortune to see the local news down there in Kent; I'm always shocked at how much reporting there is of the small boat arrivals.

View attachment 457152

Similarly the refUKers' impact on the SW is minimal; just WSM and Plymouth Moor View:

 

[Spymaster]

So, avoiding my question, come on explain what you you mean by 'someone like him'.

I just told you. It'll certainly be a right wing politician, and yes, I think it could be a reformer. As I said yesterday, if not next time, the time after is a very real possibility.

 

[Spymaster]

Eh? What you on about?

You think Britain would still have left the union if Farage and the Brexit Party never existed?

 

[brogdale]

Gotta say that MiC MRP constituency forecast looks grim for the North and North East...

 

[brogdale]

You think Britain would still have left the union if Farage and the Brexit Party never existed?

The Brexit party was founded over 2 years after the 2016 plebiscite.

 

[Elpenor]

Similarly the refUKers' impact on the SW is minimal; just WSM and Plymouth Moor View:

View attachment 457178

A lot of Tory gains from Labour and to an extent liberals in this projection which shows how frail the Labour majority is

 

[cupid_stunt]

I just told you. It'll certainly be a right wing politician, and yes, I think it could be a reformer. As I said yesterday, if not next time, the time after is a real possibility.

Then you changed it to if not next time, or the time after, then the time after that, i.e. after three GEs, and now it's just 'could be' a Reform MP.

A 'right wing politician' means nothing, ever Tory PM has been right wing, some people view Starmer as right wing.

FFS, I am trying to pin you down on the next GE, I was aiming at getting a bet going, and taking some money off you, but you're a slippery bugger.

 

[brogdale]

Unsurprising but noticeable degree of correlation between refUKers' predicted successes (pale blue) and the former coalfields:



Apart from Essex which merely represents a rich seam of cunts.

 

[Spymaster]

Then you changed it to if not next time, or the time after, then the time after that, i.e. after three GEs, and now it's just 'could be' a Reform MP.

A 'right wing politician' means nothing, ever Tory PM has been right wing, some people view Starmer as right wing.

FFS, I am trying to pin you down on the next GE, I was aiming at getting a bet going, and taking some money off you, but you're a slippery bugger.

I haven't changed it, I've consistently said next one or the one after for ages, but if it's a bet you're after, I'll have one with you.

What have you got in mind?

 

[Spymaster]

The Brexit party was founded over 2 years after the 2016 plebiscite.

Apologies, I'm a bit pissed.

Obvs meant UKIP.

 

[brogdale]

Apologies, I'm a bit pissed.

Obvs meant UKIP.

Ah, well there I have the upper hand; since my operation in November I've been on strictly controlled rations; just 1 beer per day.

Anyway, enough derailing; I still think what you said is addled:

A party that barely existed 7 years ago succeeded in what most thought was never going to happen and took Britain out of the EU.

I mean, quite clearly is was the vermin that took the UK our of the supra-state, but that aside, I do accept that pressure from the swivel-eyed loons outside of the PCP did influence the swivel-eyed loons within the party to agitate for a referendum. But that tradition of Euro-scepticism has a much longer pedigree than 2018 as you suggested. The grouping that finally morphed into UKIP, Sked's Anti-Federalist League, can be traced back to at least 1991 and other anti-European/nationalist factions/pressure groups can be traced back to at least 12 years before the UK joined in 1973. Brexit did not come out of nowhere; there had been very long, slow burn of nationalist agitprop.

 

[ska invita]

Yep, but interesting to see that, even at this high-water polling point for the rerUKers, their ability to impact electorally in the SE is pretty much limited to Essex and the periphery of the East Kent coast.

Margate + Ramsgate ... grim

 

[brogdale]

Margate + Ramsgate ... grim

Yep, but unsurprising given how many old racists live in Thanet. Remember this was where Farage nearly ousted Mackinlay in 2015 and he was ex-UKIP anyway.

e2a; but the Thanet constituency boundaries have been mucked about with a great deal...East Thanet...Thanet East and parts of Thanet South are all interchangeable to some degree.

 

[ska invita]

Yep, but unsurprising given how many old racists live in Thanet. Remember this was where Farage nearly ousted Mackinlay in 2015 and he was ex-UKIP anyway.

i thought that was mainly in the rest of the borough though, not in Margate and Ramsgate towns
i mean this was only 6 months ago

 

[brogdale]

i thought that was mainly in the rest of the borough though, not in Margate and Ramsgate towns
i mean this was only 6 months ago
View attachment 457190

True, but 18k cunts are predicted to outweigh the 17k disappointed LP voters.

 

[Spymaster]

Ah, well there I have the upper hand; since my operation in November I've been on strictly controlled rations; just 1 beer per day.

Anyway, enough derailing; I still think what you said is addled:

I mean, quite clearly is was the vermin that took the UK our of the supra-state, but that aside, I do accept that pressure from the swivel-eyed loons outside of the PCP did influence the swivel-eyed loons within the party to agitate for a referendum. But that tradition of Euro-scepticism has a much longer pedigree than 2018 as you suggested. The grouping that finally morphed into UKIP, Sked's Anti-Federalist League, can be traced back to at least 1991 and other anti-European/nationalist factions/pressure groups can be traced back to at least 12 years before the UK joined in 1973. Brexit did not come out of nowhere; there had been very long, slow burn of nationalist agitprop.

Yes, I made a bit of a bollox of the timelines but the substantive point stands, and that was more a comment on the effectiveness of Farage as a politician than the history of Brexit. I genuinely think that all this piss-taking and name calling from the left regarding him and Reform, is dangerously counterproductive. He is arguably the most effective British politician since the war (the other would be Thatcher). For all the ridicule and slagging off they get on here they are a very clear political force, not just at the next election, but right here and now.

What was the operation for?

 

[chilango]

Despite (or precisely because) of the very real threat Farage poses, and the very real influence he has weilded, we still do need to take the piss and ridicule him and his ilk.

...but we need to acknowledge that we're punching up, not down, and aim our blows accordingly.

 

[brogdale]

Yes, I made a bit of a bollox of the timelines but the substantive point stands, and that was more a comment on the effectiveness of Farage as a politician than the history of Brexit. I genuinely think that all this piss-taking and name calling from the left regarding him and Reform, is dangerously counterproductive. He is arguably the most effective British politician since the war (the other would be Thatcher). For all the ridicule and slagging off they get on here they are a very clear political force, not just at the next election, but right here and now.

What was the operation for?

You'll struggle to find posts where I belittle the threats from the populist far-right or indeed the cunt Falange's political acumen.

The operation was elective and to prevent dangerous degeneration.

 

[brogdale]

Despite (or precisely because) of the very real threat Farage poses, and the very real influence he has weilded, we still do need to take the piss and ridicule him and his ilk.

...but we need to acknowledge that we're punching up, not down, and aim our blows accordingly.

Yes, because ridicule is one, of a number, of strategies that can be employed to highlight how these extremists are persuading folk, including members of my own family, to vote against their own interests.

 

[Spymaster]

The operation was elective and to prevent dangerous degeneration.

Best wishes with that.

 

[brogdale]

He [Farage] is arguably the most effective British politician since the war

Nah. Thatcher implemented and progressed the neoliberal project, whereas Falange merely influenced a change in the UK's trading arrangements that has actually done very little to progress the project. The fact that he has had to regenerate various political vehicles in order to try to win the accelerated neoliberalism he thought Brexit would bring is a metric of his failure.

 

[Spymaster]

Yes, because ridicule is one, of a number, of strategies that can be employed to highlight how these extremists are persuading folk, including members of my own family, to vote against their own interests.

How's that worked out then?

You lot have been slagging off the right for over 20 years. Calling them names like Vermin, Fuhrage, Stammer, Refuck etc etc, and few people can name a left wing politician other than perhaps the outrageously successful Jeremy Corbyn, who's been forgotten, or perhaps George Galloway, who is universally considered a cunt.

Meanwhile Farage has built a party in the last 5 years that has become bigger in membership terms than the Tories, and polled 100 candidates 2nd to Labour in a General Election.

 

[Johnny Vodka]

Bottom line is that it's Reform driving the political conversation, so either it will be Farage or someone very similar to him as next PM. Any random political conversation (i.e. not with my family/friends, who are pretty left wing) tends to start with stop the boats theme, and this is in Scotland.