The Reform UK Party (latest nigel farage vehicle) is it to be laughed at or not

[Lotte]

Same, a bulldog in a red rosette could get voted in where I live.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

All this talk of polls and numbers of people on the ground…

You did all just see what happened in the USA, yeah

The Reform threat is very, very real. The world is marching ever further towards right wing populism. Anyone thinking Farage hasn’t got a shot of being PM in 4.5 years time is in total denial of a glaringly obvious reality.

 

[Poot]

This doesn't hold with my experience of the toriest of tories, the farmers/landowners.
Loads voted reform last time. I know of at least two who have left the tory membership to join reform.

I know these people, too. I would say they're Never Labour voters. They don't even trust Lib Dems. Luckily we only get one vote each in spite of how much of the country we own, so there will continue to be pockets of self-serving right wingers who only speak to each other about the terrible tax-taking monsters in power. They will swither between tory and reform depending who's promising them and their cash the best deal. Not sure anything can be done about them, although I understand the French had some good ideas two or three hundred years ago.

 

[cupid_stunt]

All this talk of polls and numbers of people on the ground…

You did all just see what happened in the USA, yeah

The Reform threat is very, very real. The world is marching ever further towards right wing populism. Anyone thinking Farage hasn’t got a shot of being PM in 4.5 years time is in total denial of a glaringly obvious reality.

It's a VERY different system in the US.

The FPTP system makes things very hard for new entrants to get anywhere near a majority, the electoral map maths doesn't show how Reform can do it, they would need to take a lot of seats right across the south, but they are next to nowhere in most counties.

They have as much chance of getting a majority, as I have of winning the National Lottery, which I don't even play.

 

[Rob Ray]

All this talk of polls and numbers of people on the ground…

You did all just see what happened in the USA, yeah

The Reform threat is very, very real. The world is marching ever further towards right wing populism. Anyone thinking Farage hasn’t got a shot of being PM in 4.5 years time is in total denial of a glaringly obvious reality.

He hasn't got a shot of achieving a working majority for Reform as things stand, and it's highly unlikely he'll break out of the core 25% he's aiming at to the point of getting one in the next four years (eight or nine, who knows). There's no such thing as endless growth, least of all in politics, and he's already gathered all the most likely suspects based on his political stance. His big problem is that they aren't well placed for FPTP, which isn't getting fixed easily.

It's not impossible, though at the moment seems unlikely, that he could get the job as senior partner of a right-wing coalition, but such a public declaration of second tier status would essentially be suicide for the Tories and they know it. In fact this is one reason most political commentators are so baffled by Badenoch's recent spat over membership numbers - that shit's a second-tier concern, very bad optics to be engaging in it. The other option of course is a merger with him at the head (can't see him accepting anything less), but Tories are Tories, giving away control especially to Farage would be anathema to a very large section of the party loyalists.

So while yes the Reform threat is very real (and people on this site have been warning about not underestimating Farage for quite a while) it's worth not charging too far in the other direction and declaring it the next government in waiting. All we can say with reasonable confidence is that Labour will devastate itself, the Tories may or may not pull themselves together, and Reform are posed for significant gains if they don't fuck it all up.

 

[Spymaster]

It's a VERY different system in the US.

The FPTP system makes things very hard for new entrants to get anywhere near a majority, the electoral map maths doesn't show how Reform can do it, they would need to take a lot of seats right across the south, but they are next to nowhere in most counties.

They have as much chance of getting a majority, as I have of winning the National Lottery, which I don't even play.

This isn't quite correct but even if it was, they don't have to win an overall majority for Farage (or someone like him) to become PM, and certainly don't need one for Reform to become a very significant player in UK politics. In fact, they already are.

 

[cupid_stunt]

This isn't quite correct but even if it was, they don't have to win an overall majority for Farage (or someone like him) to become PM, and certainly don't need one for Reform to become a very significant player in UK politics. In fact, they already are.

Define what you mean by 'someone like him', someone else in Reform?

 

[Ax^]

This isn't quite correct but even if it was, they don't have to win an overall majority for Farage (or someone like him) to become PM, and certainly don't need one for Reform to become a very significant player in UK politics. In fact, they already are.

aye who know you could form a party of political part of just the racist tory voters

and it would gain such traction you think the tory party had picked a non white leader

 

[Smokeandsteam]

They have started well with membership now at 150k x £25, that's £3.75m right there.

Given that Reform is a company and not a party, what membership benefits are there? I assume that they do not elect the leader or their NEC or set policy at conference?

So, what do they get for their £25 per year?

 

[chilango]

Playing by the traditional rules of British electoral politics (i.e. Boomer norms from the 1960s to the 1980s that dominate broadcast political discourse) you cannot see any path to Government for Reform.

...but, we're already seeing those norms disintegrating. The SNP, Sinn Fein, the Greens etc. etc. Both Labour and the Tories are really exposed right now and either or both could collapse, taking the two party system with them.

Should this happen, all bets are off.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Given that Reform is a company and not a party, what membership benefits are there? I assume that they do not elect the leader or their NEC or set policy at conference?

So, what do they get for their £25 per year?

They had a national conference a few months ago, and approved a constitution to democratise Reform, which in theory will give the membership the ability to remove Farage as leader.

There's two problems with that, firstly the leadership is dragging their feet in introducing it, so it may not even happen. Secondly, IIRC, it would take a massive 50% + 1 of the membership to submit letters of no confidence to trigger a leadership election, which is highly unlikely to ever happen.

So, basically even if the constitution is introduced, it will mean fuck all.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

They had a national conference a few months ago, and approved a constitution to democratise Reform, which in theory will give the membership the ability to remove Farage as leader.

There's two problems with that, firstly the leadership is dragging their feet in introducing it, so it may not even happen. Secondly, IIRC, it would take a massive 50% + 1 of the membership to submit letters of no confidence to trigger a leadership election, which is highly unlikely to ever happen.

So, basically even if the constitution is introduced, it will mean fuck all.

Ta. I missed that change in their constitution.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

Playing by the traditional rules of British electoral politics (i.e. Boomer norms from the 1960s to the 1980s that dominate broadcast political discourse) you cannot see any path to Government for Reform.

...but, we're already seeing those norms disintegrating. The SNP, Sinn Fein, the Greens etc. etc. Both Labour and the Tories are really exposed right now and either or both could collapse, taking the two party system with them.

Should this happen, all bets are off.

This is pretty much my view. So many people don’t seem to have caught on to how things are changing, or the pace of that change. This isn’t the politics of the 80’s anymore, and we’re never going back.

 

[Lotte]

All this talk of polls and numbers of people on the ground…

You did all just see what happened in the USA, yeah

The Reform threat is very, very real. The world is marching ever further towards right wing populism. Anyone thinking Farage hasn’t got a shot of being PM in 4.5 years time is in total denial of a glaringly obvious reality.

That's exactly why I'm worried. I know the American system is nothing like ours, but people want change and easy answers, and everywhere seems to be moving further and further right.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Ta. I missed that change in their constitution.

Well, as I say, the constitution is yet to be introduced, but here's a link.

For the first time at its conference, members voted on a policy motion to adopt a new constitution, which sets out party rules and the responsibilities of the leadership.

In his conference speech on Friday, Farage said the party needed to be more “professional”.

The party’s chairman Zia Yusuf put the new constitution to a vote on the conference floor on Saturday.

He said the party would become a not-for-profit organisation governed by the party’s new rulebook, with no shareholders.

However...

But members will be able to remove Farage - or any other party leader - in a no-confidence vote.

A vote can be triggered if 50% of all members write to the chairman requesting a motion of no confidence.

Reform MPs can also force a vote if 50 of them, or 50% of them, write to the chairman requesting one. But this only applies if there are more than 100 Reform MPs in Parliament - a high bar.

Reform UK votes to give members more control

Reform UK’s new constitution is approved in a vote at its party conference in Birmingham.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[littlebabyjesus]

This isn't quite correct but even if it was, they don't have to win an overall majority for Farage (or someone like him) to become PM, and certainly don't need one for Reform to become a very significant player in UK politics. In fact, they already are.

They do have to be the biggest party in parliament, though. And even that might not be enough.

It's right to take the threat of Farage and Reform seriously, but they are still a very long way from a position in which they could form a government as the senior partner.

If we're doing predictions, my prediction is that the last election was the low point for the Tories and they will win back voters from Reform at the next election, but not enough to prevent Labour from forming the next government on a much reduced majority. At some point over the next four years, Labour will change tack somewhat on their economic plans and that will be just enough to save them.

There's something to laugh at in four/five years' time.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Well, as I say, the constitution is yet to be introduced, but here's a link.

Thanks for that. As you say, it’s near impossible for the leader to be removed given those rules. It also appears that the leader has the power to appoint to the NEC (or board) of the party

 

[danny la rouge]

This isn't quite correct but even if it was, they don't have to win an overall majority for Farage (or someone like him) to become PM, and certainly don't need one for Reform to become a very significant player in UK politics. In fact, they already are.

Yup. I don’t think it’s an at all fanciful possibility that at some point the Tory party needs Reform in order to form a government. Both numerically, and politically. I can foresee circumstances in which the Reform narrative is more influential than the Tory one. In many way it already is. And it’s not a stretch to imagine that Reform, while perhaps not in terms of seats, becomes so powerful a player that the price of their cooperation is that the PM is one of their number.

(Remember during Ramsay MacDonald’s second term in office, he was not the leader of the largest party. That coalition was dominated by the Tories in terms of seats, yet the PM was not one of their number).

I am not “predicting” this, but it’s by no mean impossible or unprecedented. I’m not sure why some are so ready to dismiss it out of hand.

 

[danny la rouge]

They do have to be the biggest party in parliament, though.

No they don’t.

 

[MrsArcanum]

This doesn't hold with my experience of the toriest of tories, the farmers/landowners.
Loads voted reform last time. I know of at least two who have left the tory membership to join reform.

Farmers/landowners are few in number, just have visible poster sites. One estate will easily net more voters.

 

[brogdale]

A "Reform source" quote from this Guardian piece about the refUKers' optimism about a possible Runcorn by-election:

“We are first out of the blocks on this one,” said a Reform source. “The Labour majority is massive, but when you look at the demographics in all areas, it is everything you would want for a Reform seat. If you wanted to win somewhere with such a large majority, you’d probably need an unpopular government, a bad economy and a scandal. Obviously, you’ve got all three.

“People think their public services are getting worse, and we think we have a story to tell on that. It’s also about community and promoting the family. People forget that we are opposing the two-child benefit cap. We think we can be the party that lets people show their anger at the Labour government.”

So much to unpack, there.

 

[andysays]

This isn't quite correct but even if it was, they don't have to win an overall majority for Farage (or someone like him) to become PM, and certainly don't need one for Reform to become a very significant player in UK politics. In fact, they already are.

This is the thing.

All the focus on this thread recently has been on whether and how Farage might become PM.

The reality is that he and his parties have become very significant in the past decade, and for most of that time Farage wasn't even an MP.

 

[cupid_stunt]

A "Reform source" quote from this Guardian piece about the refUKers' optimism about a possible Runcorn by-election:

So much to unpack, there.

They are very likely to do well in any by-elections, as a protest vote.

 

[brogdale]

They are very likely to do well in any by-elections, as a protest vote.

Dependent on geography, obviously. There's still plenty of places where the LDs would be the recipients of such protest voting.

 

[chilango]

Regardless, the scene is set.

Increasingly authoritarian right-wing technocrats versus increasingly authoritarian right-wing populists.

The vanishing number of comfortable liberals have thrown their lot in with the former and the dregs of the so-called Left are throwing their lot in with the latter.

Hope lies outside of Politics.

 

[emanymton]

All this talk of polls and numbers of people on the ground…

You did all just see what happened in the USA, yeah

The Reform threat is very, very real. The world is marching ever further towards right wing populism. Anyone thinking Farage hasn’t got a shot of being PM in 4.5 years time is in total denial of a glaringly obvious reality.

I agree with you in general, but think you are overstating things a tad, Trump still had to stand as the candidate for one of the 2 main parties and that will me the same here, the next election here will almost certainly be won by a right wing populist type, but they will be leading the Tory party.

 

[MickiQ]

Given that Reform is a company and not a party, what membership benefits are there? I assume that they do not elect the leader or their NEC or set policy at conference?

So, what do they get for their £25 per year?

An outlet for their feeling of otherwise futile outrage and the delusion that they're doing something to change the world, pretty much the same reason as people join any political movement.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Yup. I don’t think it’s an at all fanciful possibility that at some point the Tory party needs Reform in order to form a government. Both numerically, and politically. I can foresee circumstances in which the Reform narrative is more influential than the Tory one. In many way it already is. And it’s not a stretch to imagine that Reform, while perhaps not in terms of seats, becomes so powerful a player that the price of their cooperation is that the PM is one of their number.

(Remember during Ramsay MacDonald’s second term in office, he was not the leader of the largest party. That coalition was dominated by the Tories in terms of seats, yet the PM was not one of their number).

I am not “predicting” this, but it’s by no mean impossible or unprecedented. I’m not sure why some are so ready to dismiss it out of hand.

Not sure the MacDonald example is particularly relevant here, though. He split the Labour party to force through cuts that the Tories agreed with. And he did so from a position in which he was already PM, having become so initially because he was the leader of the party with the most seats. It's a very particular circumstance that doesn't really have any parallels here.

 

[danny la rouge]

Not sure the MacDonald example is particularly relevant here, though. He split the Labour party to force through cuts that the Tories agreed with. And he did so from a position in which he was already PM, having become so initially because he was the leader of the party with the most seats. It's a very particular circumstance that doesn't really have any parallels here.

Yeah, I’m not making a parallel there. I even put it in brackets to remove it from my main argument. I’m pointing out that the PM does not have to be leader of the largest party.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Yeah, I’m not making a parallel there. I even put it in brackets to remove it from my main argument. I’m pointing out that the PM does not have to be leader of the largest party.

Doesn't have to be, no. But some pretty extraordinary circumstances are needed to make it so. I wouldn't see that happening if the Tories were in a position to form a majority with Reform, but with the Tories as the larger party by seats. Maybe if their seat numbers were very, very close, but for that to happen, a lot has to change in the next four years. In such circumstances, there could also be a chance of a National Government of the Tories with Labour. Chaos and another election pretty swiftly would be my prediction if there were a broad three-way split of seats between Labour, Tories and Reform.