The Brexit process

[CrabbedOne]

On VoxEU Globalisation and Brexit

...
Import competition and attitudes towards immigration
We have not found evidence that higher levels of immigration are significantly related to higher support for Leave. And yet, dissatisfaction with immigration has been identified as one of the most important self-reported reasons for voters supporting the Leave option (Ipsos MORI 2016, Lord Ashcroft 2016). How can we reconcile these pieces of evidence? In our individual-level data, we find evidence that negative attitudes towards immigration are themselves determined by stronger exposure to Chinese imports, more than by the extent of immigration in the region of residence. Overall, regardless of the self-reported reasons for voting Leave, concerns with immigration might be better understood as a scapegoat for a malaise that has more structural economic origins. These are related to large scale economic transformations that inflict disproportionate losses on some sectors of society.

Conclusion
Globalisation, and in particular the Chinese import shock, was a key driver of the vote for Brexit. While free trade has generated significant welfare gains for advanced economies such as the UK, the distribution of these gains has been highly unequal. This has left some social groups and, importantly, some geographic areas, much worse off. Our results suggest that redistribution policies that spread the benefits of globalisation across society are crucial to ensure that globalisation itself is sustainable in the long run.

Well it's a theory.

This would be a bit ironic as the Three Brexiteers appear mad keen on a brave new world of free trade beyond the somewhat protectionist EU and flooding UK markets with cheap goods. Just as Trump rides in by winning Rust Belt swing states that are convinced that sort of thing is a pointed headed global conspiracy to utterly shaft the white lower orders. It has occurred to me the flyover Red Necks may be a step ahead.

 

[not a trot]

Theresa May has given a shock Brexit post to Mauricio Pochettino. She noted how he was able to get Spurs out of Europe in just two months.

 

[weltweit]

What experience does David Davis have negotiating things?

Is he a slick effective negotiator?

What is the evidence that he is good at this?

 

[butchersapron]

What experience does David Davis have negotiating things?

Is he a slick effective negotiator?

What is the evidence that he is good at this?

At what?

 

[brogdale]

I'll be honest; I'm not sure that I properly understood all of this...but it might be worth reading for those with a bit more expertise of the law?

LRB · Frederick Wilmot-Smith · Who speaks for the state?

Should the executive be permitted to take advantage of our legislative framework to exercise a quasi-legislative function? There is no easy answer to that question. One way to read the High Court’s decision is as an entrenchment of parliamentary powers, hard won from the Crown and justified by principles of representative democracy. In light of the executive’s failure to defend the judiciary in the aftermath of the decision, their incoherent proposals for leaving the EU, and broader concerns about the democratic legitimacy of Parliament, no one should feel entirely sanguine if the government’s appeal succeeds.

 

[gosub]

 

[brogdale]

Saw Antony Sher's Lear at the Barbican this afternoon, (from the £9 seats comrades), and he seemed to take particular delight in delivering these lines, after Gloucester's eyes have been put out...his pause implied that it gets a good audience response every performance.

Get thee glass eyes,
And like a scurvy politician seem
To see the things thou dost not.
(Lear, Act 4 Scene 5)

 

[Winot]

Saw Antony Sher's Lear at the Barbican this afternoon, (from the £9 seats comrades), and he seemed to take particular delight in delivering these lines, after Gloucester's eyes have been put out...his pause implied that it gets a good audience response every performance.

​

I'm seeing Glenda Jackson play Lear this week. Her delivery of those lines will be interesting given her history.

 

[brogdale]

I'm seeing Glenda Jackson play Lear this week. Her delivery of those lines will be interesting given her history.

Yep.
Obviously won't be Glenda, but Gloucester's "'Tis the time’s plague when madmen lead the blind." also created a little audience reaction.

 

[brogdale]

FWIW, today's snapped Downing St. notes transcribed...

Won’t provide more detail. We think… be offered single market. Our criteria are clear – more open the better.

Manufacturing relatively straightforward

Services harder – because French hoping for business.

biggest interest is internal market

ECJ & control of borders won’t fit.

Transitional – loathe to do it. Whitehall will hold onto it. We need to bring an end to the negotiation.

Headlines won’t change from now until March though

Why no Norway – TWO elements – no ECJ intervention… beyond our trade with Europe. Unlikely to do internal market

Trade with EU through DexU not DIT.

What is the model? Have cake & eat it.

Very French negotiating team.

Need fair process guaranteed…

Canada Plus – more on services

Europe gets a good deal

BEA model not good

 

[Diamond]

FWIW, today's snapped Downing St. notes transcribed...

​

Source?

 

[brogdale]

Source?

It's in the Mail; I won't link FORs.

 

[Diamond]

It's in the Mail; I won't link FORs.

No sign of it after quite a few mins searching - are you sure that's legit?

 

[brogdale]

No sign of it after quite a few mins searching - are you sure that's legit?

Here you go.

 

[Diamond]

Here you go.

Ta - odd that very few others seem to have picked up on this so far.

 

[butchersapron]

No sign of it after quite a few mins searching - are you sure that's legit?

Maybe they don't think - after quite a few minutes of searching - that it's legit?

 

[not-bono-ever]

i get banned once a week from the mail comments section but did not see this before todays ban

 

[brogdale]

i get banned once a week from the mail comments section but did not see this before todays ban

Only been up an hour.

 

[Diamond]

Really surprised that that's not a much, much bigger story - first proper insight into the pre-negotiations etc

 

[brogdale]

So it's Davis' thoughts.

 

[SaskiaJayne]

If it was any different from the gist of the notes then we might have cause for suprise. The description is of things much as we would expect them to be. It's almost as if this was done delibrately, for a laff even? It just seems too obvious. Perhaps this is the form the 'running commentary' will take?

 

[sleaterkinney]

I'm seeing Glenda Jackson play Lear this week. Her delivery of those lines will be interesting given her history.

I've seen it, those lines provoked a few sniggers.

 

[not-bono-ever]

The Kippers and more rabid patriotic lot are calling is a false flag or whatevs today ( I am not up to speed on the lasts conspiracy termionology).

 

[1%er]

I can see the Tory's going for, remain in the single market (but allowed to have separate trade agreements outside Europe) and the free movement of labour (not the free movement of people). Not sure they'd get it but it would be a great result for them if they did. The line would be, its great for business, jobs and the economy while limiting immigration/migration. Tory Governments until 2030

 

[Raheem]

I can see the Tory's going for, remain in the single market (but allowed to have separate trade agreements outside Europe) and the free movement of labour (not the free movement of people). Not sure they'd get it but it would be a great result for them if they did. The line would be, its great for business, jobs and the economy while limiting immigration/migration. Tory Governments until 2030

That would probably go down well, but I think they may as well ask for the Italian Alps in a gift-box.

 

[gosub]

That would probably go down well, but I think they may as well ask for the Italian Alps in a gift-box.

where would we put them?

 

[Raheem]

where would we put them?

In the loft, with the intention of putting them on eBay but never getting round to it.

 

[1%er]

That would probably go down well, but I think they may as well ask for the Italian Alps in a gift-box.

Aren't the Italian Alps up for sale, I heard they need the money to bailout the banks over there

 

[03gills]

A lot of people voted leave because they were fed up of being ignored by elitists who think they know better, so our solution? Find a way to redefine what leaving the E.U means so that we don't actually have to leave the E.U, but in a way so that the plebs won't realise.

Don't you get it? Doesn't anyone get it? People see condescending shit like this on their FB timeline or hear it from friends & wait till the privacy of the ballot box to say 'fuck you', & then don't tell the pollsters or their mates what they did because it's more fun to watch everyone scratch their head after the result.

 

[Raheem]

Don't you get it? Doesn't anyone get it? People see condescending shit like this on their FB timeline or hear it from friends & wait till the privacy of the ballot box to say 'fuck you', & then don't tell the pollsters or their mates what they did because it's more fun to watch everyone scratch their head after the result.

Where did you find out that this is what happened?