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The 2019 General Election

I think we've already been over this...but...I've actually bothered to look it up now.(noticing today how quickly it got dark wot prompted it)

So, perhaps surprisingly (? it not being the Solstice - shortest day) Johnson seems to have chosen a date for the General Election which falls within the 5 day period of earliest sunsets (15:51pm). Although, because of the sunrise differences 12/12/19 has, in total 5 minutes more light than the days around the Solstice.

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So, well done Johnson...you've actually determined GE day will, pretty much, feel like the shortest day to many folk. Heard some ERO or summat from the IoW (likely to have one of the latest sunset times) say that he reckoned that there'd be approx 7.5hrs of darkness for polling.

Anyway...nerding over.

Excellent nerding. I've actually been wondering if a December election will mean fewer older voters turning out. Have we done that yet?
 
I'll accept that the contradictions in and between labour's members, voters and activists could never easily be resolved. But the problem is what Labour did with those contradictions, all the decidingnot to decide, waiting till this that or the other NEC meeting and the rest. Labour's body language on brexit has been dreadful, a body language that made even theresa may look resolute and looks bad against the 'getting it done' narrative of the current twat. There's an element of hindsight here, admittedly, but the moment they voted for Article 50, there should have been an aggressive articulation of a lexit (of sorts - it would have been a social democratic exit vision). I've no idea, but it might well have meant some version of the single market, but allied with a real push on workers rights and the rest - and most of all tied in with a confident left agenda at home. There would have been something there for both leave and remain areas, maybe even a way of getting beyond fucking brexit.

We've obviously been round and round these issues, but I only mention is a component of labour's current problems. They haven't really got much to say to either leave or remain areas.
That's exactly what they did argue for. That the argument got lost amidst cretins from left and right calling for (close as damn it to) no deal or revoke may well be true, but it isnt true that they didn't make it.
 
What? Are you going to tell me it was neccessary for Blair to scrap clause 4 and move the party to the right in order to win?

That Major govt after the ERM disaster was fucked whatever Labour did.
No dear, I'm pointing out that you miss the point. Then is not now, and itmatters little whether we are talking about 1917, 1945 or 1917. Ideas aren't just like shoes that you can pull out from under the bed and slip back on your feet twenty years later. Things move on, Labour need a new and even better manifesto.
 
The thing about that argument is that if this means Labour do poorly at this election, it means using Brexit to destabilise Corbyn worked. So you're edging towards saying that there was nothing Corbyn could do to stop his leadership being destabilised.
Good job we're heading for a Labour majority then huh? :cool:

FWIW though, Corbyn has always been up against it. They could have done some things better, but jesus christ.
 
Excellent nerding. I've actually been wondering if a December election will mean fewer older voters turning out. Have we done that yet?
I'd say that there's got to be a risk of that, especially given the increased likelihood of discouraging weather, (anyone who lives off the proper/bigger M&S reductions of "Tramps' buffet" knows that a good dose of cold & rain can keep the oldies at home with Countdown, leaving the yellow labels for the younger cost-conscious:D).

The serious point is that this has the potential to really expose differential rates of Postal Vote amongst the older voters by party. Around my neck of the woods the vermin/yellow vermin have always been cynically good at the 'granny-farming' by going into homes etc. to hoover up the PV. If the LP were less likely to have their older voters (who vote) on PV then the time of the year/weather could play a role and not in a good way for them.
 
Is there any polling on what key issues are driving voters this election and in what proportions? Obviously entirely anecdotal this but most of the people I talk to day to day aren't political nerd types and have been surprised to hear a few heavy leave types I know - a few weeks ago were banging on about how anything but no deal isn't brexit, one I know def voted brexit party at euros but a couple more probably did - say they are voting labour. They're obviously not doing this based on brexit.

I know this means nothing by itself but would be interested to see what key issues are for voters and in what %s
 
And, it's why Labour is going to struggle to make this anything other than the Brexit election, which was Johnson's plan.
 
I think it would have been fine to stick with it. Sticking with it would have to mean defending it against attack from the Labour right, of course, but again I don't think that's something Corbyn should have shied away from.

I'm not advocating the targeting of swing seats over all other concerns either to be fair, I'm just saying it's hard to see how this shift towards Remain is helpful or positive.
The only detailed constituency by constituency projections of the election so far is the Best for Britain MRP, which paints a very bad picture for Labour in the Brexit leaning marginals - but it's hard to see how they could make this picture much better by tacking towards leave.

If we look at Crewe & Nantwich (line 123): the projection has the tories on 38%, Labour on 28%, LDs on 10%, Greens on 5% and Brexit on 15%. Last time, the greens didn't even stand and the LDs & UKIP were nowhere - Labour and the Tories were both on 47%.

There's 15% hard brexit and 15% hard remain votes moved from Labour / Tories to smaller parties since 2017: which 15% do they chase? I don't think there's any easy answers.
 
I don't know how all this stuff can have been possible in the middle of an internal civil war in which one side of the party was using brexit as it's main means of destabilising the other. This kind of message discipline on policy which goes against the wishes of most of the membership & support base would have been difficult at the best of times: under the conditions Labour have been (cough) labouring under the past few years? No chance.



Is this true? We can all talk about how far Labour policy goes, but it's inarguable that their manifesto completely changed the election campaign in 2017. The policies they've rolled out this time seem to be in a similar vein. Whether it gets a proper hearing is another question.
On the first para, my point is that from the Article 50 vote onwards the leadership should have been seeking to build something rather than avoiding having something because of their fear of the internal/voter divisions. Yeah, hindsight as I said, but I think there was a way through this. Not an easy one, not one that necessarily pulled the party together, but something that started with the social democratic vision, the defence of workers interests and then formulated brexit accordingly. Technically, the 6 tests (was it six?) did that, but in a rather smug way that used the tests to avoid facing up to divides, flack and the rest. The lack of that assertive message has still, right up to fucking now, left Starmer unable to answer whether he would vote for his own party's future renegotiated deal. There's very little in labour's faffing about that resonates with people's lives.

Just on the second para, we may be at cross purposes. I meant that on brexit itself labour now have very little they can offer to leave or remain areas. In terms of wider policies, they certainly have got things to say, as in 2017, over health, privatisation and the rest. That's their one hope. Trouble is the brexit silence has taken them further away from the voters.
 
That's exactly what they did argue for. That the argument got lost amidst cretins from left and right calling for (close as damn it to) no deal or revoke may well be true, but it isnt true that they didn't make it.
But as I said in reply to killer b, that was largely in the '6 tests' or the late in the day offer to May to get her deal through. It was institutional/parliamentary politics and I certainly didn't see it as part of a real, engaged, attempt at meeting the concerns that led to the leave vote.
 
No dear, I'm pointing out that you miss the point. Then is not now, and itmatters little whether we are talking about 1917, 1945 or 1917. Ideas aren't just like shoes that you can pull out from under the bed and slip back on your feet twenty years later. Things move on, Labour need a new and even better manifesto.

I think you're fucking about and being tiresome, you're not pointing anything out to me. But if Labour need a new and even better manifesto as you claim, what is better about their Brexit position now?
 
Good job we're heading for a Labour majority then huh? :cool:

FWIW though, Corbyn has always been up against it. They could have done some things better, but jesus christ.

A lot of things that could have been done better, lets be real. Don't disagree he has been in a very difficult situation though.
 
That's exactly what they did argue for. That the argument got lost amidst cretins from left and right calling for (close as damn it to) no deal or revoke may well be true, but it isnt true that they didn't make it.

What cretins from the left were calling for no deal or revoke?
 
But as I said in reply to killer b, that was largely in the '6 tests' or the late in the day offer to May to get her deal through. It was institutional/parliamentary politics and I certainly didn't see it as part of a real, engaged, attempt at meeting the concerns that led to the leave vote.
But most of those concerns weren't really anything to do with our relationship with the EU - except for around immigration. The decades of under-investment and deindustrialisation that fucked those communities and led to the breakdown in community weren't caused by the EU. They are being addressed by the rest of Labour policy, policy that would (and could) be implemented whether in the EU or not.
 
I think you're fucking about and being tiresome, you're not pointing anything out to me. But if Labour need a new and even better manifesto as you claim, what is better about their Brexit position now?
No, I'm being patronising.

And it is basically the same position on Brexit this time around - negotiate a better version still based around the six tests. They've just added the public vote now.
 
I think you're fucking about and being tiresome, you're not pointing anything out to me. But if Labour need a new and even better manifesto as you claim, what is better about their Brexit position now?

There are I think two problems with it. Firstly, the notion that corbyn is going to cut a deal with the EU, get it through the commons and set up and deliver a referendum within 6 months seems, after the past three and a half years, a somewhat stretching target. The decision to pursue bilateral agreements with 27 other countries over free movement further muddies the credibility waters.

Secondly, the ‘we are going to let the people decide’ argument sounds risible given the events that have led to the election and the fact that a number of shadow cabinet ministers have already made clear they’ll be campaigning against their own deal.
 
No, I'm being patronising.

And it is basically the same position on Brexit this time around - negotiate a better version still based around the six tests. They've just added the public vote now.

You are being fucking stupid if you are seriously arguing this line. ‘They’ve just added the public vote’ ffs
 
All it's really saying is what the interviewee thinks is the issue most people think is important. If you ask someone what they think is important atm I reckon the spread is likely going to be markedly different.

Err?

The question was - what do YOU think.
 
You are being fucking stupid if you are seriously arguing this line. ‘They’ve just added the public vote’ ffs
The public vote bit is pretty important, for sure, but what else, formally, has changed?

It's not about the reality, it's about the perception.
 
Politically Brexit is everywhere, so of course it's seen as the "most important issue" when answering a Yougov poll. But practically? It's an abstracted concept. Media fulminating on Brexit isn't the reason why hospitals are short staffed and housing is in crisis, nor is it the reason the right wing is so united against Corbyn.
 
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