The 2019 General Election

[belboid]

I think we've done this one before, but the position they had in 2017 worked pretty well.

the position they had in 1997 worked pretty well (electorally). But this isn't 1997.

 

[SpackleFrog]

It worked just fine, under quite different political conditions. There was a consensus on all sides that the referendum result should be honoured: that simply isn't the case anymore.

I think quite a lot of the electorate - including a lot of Remain voters - think it is still the case that the referendum result should be honoured. That circumstances appear to have changed is largely the fault of Starmer, Watson etc.

 

[SpackleFrog]

the position they had in 1997 worked pretty well (electorally). But this isn't 1997.

Anything would have worked in 1997.

 

[cupid_stunt]

It worked just fine, under quite different political conditions. There was a consensus on all sides that the referendum result should be honoured: that simply isn't the case anymore.

Totally agreed, and it's going to be hard to stop this being a Brexit election, considering it's been all consuming for the last couple of years.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Particularly given that the Tories are (very sensibly) not going to tell anyone their plans for govt, I am starting to worry that Labour have moved so far towards a Remain position that they will lose seats. Anyone care to tell me I'm wrong and it'll be ok?

You’ll be amazed to learn that I agree with you Spacklefrog.

What amazes me - on purely party political grounds, and setting aside for a moment any political analysis of the EU - is that the majority of key swing seats are leave voting.

The surrender to dumb knee jerking by remainers in such circumstances is astonishing.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Here's a kiss of death if ever there was one.

'Shameful' not to publish Russia report - Clinton

 

[killer b]

You’ll be amazed to learn that I agree with you Spacklefrog.

What amazes me - on purely party political grounds, and setting aside for a moment any political analysis of the EU - is that the majority of key swing seats are leave voting.

The surrender to dumb knee jerking by remainers in such circumstances is astonishing.

But regardless of the leave/remain lean in key swing seats, the - vast - majority of the membership, activists and MPs of the Labour Party are remain. The vast majority of their support from the 2017 election throughout the country is remain. That can't be ignored or wished away any more than the fact that key swing seats lean leave can be.

 

[SpackleFrog]

But regardless of the leave/remain lean in key swing seats, the - vast - majority of the membership, activists and MPs of the Labour Party are remain. The vast majority of their support from the 2017 election throughout the country is remain. That can't be ignored or wished away any more than the fact that key swing seats lean leave can be.

It can be challenged though. It can be discussed. Ignoring it and muddling through hasn't helped anyone.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

But regardless of the leave/remain lean in key swing seats, the - vast - majority of the membership, activists and MPs of the Labour Party are remain. The vast majority of their support from the 2017 election throughout the country is remain. That can't be ignored or wished away any more than the fact that key swing seats lean leave can be.

The vast majority of the membership, activists and MPs of the Labour Party should perhaps recognise that their own personal peccadilloes have consequences when they come into contact with the electorate.

As you correctly indicate Labour hoovered up remain support in 2017 when it had a perfectly sensible policy on Brexit.

 

[killer b]

I can't see the point in continuing this when you just ignore half of what I'm saying.

 

[Dogsauce]

Most of my bubble (majority younger than me in their thirties) are strongly Labour and strongly remain, and don’t really see a conflict, I’m seeing little leakage to lib dems (was a bit at the Euros but that wasn’t seen to matter in the same way). Other people’s bubbles may differ.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I can't see the point in continuing this when you just ignore half of what I'm saying.

Which half sorry?

Not wishing to drag it out, we've done it before, just what do you think we're ignoring?

 

[killer b]

You're going on about the 2017 policy as if it would have been fine to just stick with it.

Anyway, it's an interesting turnaround for socialists to be advocating the narrow targeting of swing seats over all other concerns.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The vast majority of the membership, activists and MPs of the Labour Party should perhaps recognise that their own personal peccadilloes have consequences when they come into contact with the electorate.

An electorate that voted 64% remain, you mean? A higher percentage of Labour voters voted remain than voters for the SNP. It's way more than 'personal peccadilloes'.

In this election, Labour needs to win a big number of votes from people who think Brexit is a really stupid thing to do generally, and that this tory hard brexit in particular is a vile thing to do. Alienate them and Labour really is fucked.

 

[Wilf]

But regardless of the leave/remain lean in key swing seats, the - vast - majority of the membership, activists and MPs of the Labour Party are remain. The vast majority of their support from the 2017 election throughout the country is remain. That can't be ignored or wished away any more than the fact that key swing seats lean leave can be.

I'll accept that the contradictions in and between labour's members, voters and activists could never easily be resolved. But the problem is what Labour did with those contradictions, all the decidingnot to decide, waiting till this that or the other NEC meeting and the rest. Labour's body language on brexit has been dreadful, a body language that made even theresa may look resolute and looks bad against the 'getting it done' narrative of the current twat. There's an element of hindsight here, admittedly, but the moment they voted for Article 50, there should have been an aggressive articulation of a lexit (of sorts - it would have been a social democratic exit vision). I've no idea, but it might well have meant some version of the single market, but allied with a real push on workers rights and the rest - and most of all tied in with a confident left agenda at home. There would have been something there for both leave and remain areas, maybe even a way of getting beyond fucking brexit.

We've obviously been round and round these issues, but I only mention is a component of labour's current problems. They haven't really got much to say to either leave or remain areas.

 

[cupid_stunt]

David Lammy has basically admitted Labour is in trouble, by calling on Corbyn to get into bed with the LidDems, etc.

Jeremy Corbyn urged to cut deals and form 'Remain alliance' to defeat the Tories

 

[Teaboy]

David Lammy has basically admitted Labour is in trouble, by calling on Corbyn to get into bed with the LidDems, etc.

Jeremy Corbyn urged to cut deals and form 'Remain alliance' to defeat the Tories

London based remain backing MP thinks Labour should go all out remain?

This is not a huge surprise, no?

 

[Artaxerxes]

Anything would have worked in 1997.

Tbf people said that in 87 and 92..

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'll accept that the contradictions in and between labour's members, voters and activists could never easily be resolved. But the problem is what Labour did with those contradictions, all the decidingnot to decide, waiting till this that or the other NEC meeting and the rest. Labour's body language on brexit has been dreadful, a body language that made even theresa may look resolute and looks bad against the 'getting it done' narrative of the current twat. There's an element of hindsight here, admittedly, but the moment they voted for Article 50, there should have been an aggressive articulation of a lexit (of sorts - it would have been a social democratic exit vision). I've no idea, but it might well have meant some version of the single market, but allied with a real push on workers rights and the rest - and most of all tied in with a confident left agenda at home. There would have been something there for both leave and remain areas, maybe even a way of getting beyond fucking brexit.

We've obviously been round and round these issues, but I only mention is a component of labour's current problems. They haven't really got much to say to either leave or remain areas.

They accepted the Tory line that the referendum result meant the need to end free movement because it showed that's what a majority wanted (it did nothing of the kind). That was a massive mistake, imo. It instantly cut off various forms of brexit that involved the single market.

 

[cupid_stunt]

London based remain backing MP thinks Labour should go all out remain?

This is not a huge surprise, no?

Nope, no surprise.

Can't see it flying myself, what with the LibDems being somewhat toxic from the coalition years for a majority of Labour voters, and Swinson claiming she would never help to put Corbyn into No. 10.

 

[Pickman's model]

Tbf people said that in 87 and 92..

and how prescient they were

 

[Teaboy]

Received the 4th or 5th lib dem flier through the post today. Not a surprise as we have an incumbent lim dem MP and is a strong remain area. What is interesting is that I have seen nothing at all from the tories. This in a seat they held going into 2017 albeit on an outlier of the lib dem collapse in 2015. Still, you'd think they'd give it a bit of a go.

This all ties in with the other news of tory mp's in London marginals trying to pretend brexit and Johnson don't exist. There is a lot of a talk on here about the Labour remain seats in the North and Midlands but it's clear to me that the tories are braced for a torrid time in London and likely other metropolitan areas not to mention the whole of Scotland.

I'm not a betting person but if I was I'd still be edging towards another hung parliament.

 

[chilango]

If people's votes are determined by Brexit Labour cannot win. They're fucked whatever position they take.

Once again.

If Labour can make it about everything, anything, else they've got a shot.

 

[SpackleFrog]

You're going on about the 2017 policy as if it would have been fine to just stick with it.

Anyway, it's an interesting turnaround for socialists to be advocating the narrow targeting of swing seats over all other concerns.

I think it would have been fine to stick with it. Sticking with it would have to mean defending it against attack from the Labour right, of course, but again I don't think that's something Corbyn should have shied away from.

I'm not advocating the targeting of swing seats over all other concerns either to be fair, I'm just saying it's hard to see how this shift towards Remain is helpful or positive.

 

[killer b]

I'll accept that the contradictions in and between labour's members, voters and activists could never easily be resolved. But the problem is what Labour did with those contradictions, all the decidingnot to decide, waiting till this that or the other NEC meeting and the rest. Labour's body language on brexit has been dreadful, a body language that made even theresa may look resolute and looks bad against the 'getting it done' narrative of the current twat. There's an element of hindsight here, admittedly, but the moment they voted for Article 50, there should have been an aggressive articulation of a lexit (of sorts - it would have been a social democratic exit vision). I've no idea, but it might well have meant some version of the single market, but allied with a real push on workers rights and the rest - and most of all tied in with a confident left agenda at home. There would have been something there for both leave and remain areas, maybe even a way of getting beyond fucking brexit.

I don't know how all this stuff can have been possible in the middle of an internal civil war in which one side of the party was using brexit as it's main means of destabilising the other. This kind of message discipline on policy which goes against the wishes of most of the membership & support base would have been difficult at the best of times: under the conditions Labour have been (cough) labouring under the past few years? No chance.

We've obviously been round and round these issues, but I only mention is a component of labour's current problems. They haven't really got much to say to either leave or remain areas.

Is this true? We can all talk about how far Labour policy goes, but it's inarguable that their manifesto completely changed the election campaign in 2017. The policies they've rolled out this time seem to be in a similar vein. Whether it gets a proper hearing is another question.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Tbf people said that in 87 and 92..

But I didn't. They were wrong.

 

[SpackleFrog]

They accepted the Tory line that the referendum result meant the need to end free movement because it showed that's what a majority wanted (it did nothing of the kind). That was a massive mistake, imo. It instantly cut off various forms of brexit that involved the single market.

No. The single market isn't really free movement from any sort of class perspective. Added to which in 2017 Corbyn pledged not to introduce any new immigration controls.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I don't know how all this stuff can have been possible in the middle of an internal civil war in which one side of the party was using brexit as it's main means of destabilising the other. This kind of message discipline on policy which goes against the wishes of most of the membership & support base would have been difficult at the best of times: under the conditions Labour have been (cough) labouring under the past few years? No chance.

The thing about that argument is that if this means Labour do poorly at this election, it means using Brexit to destabilise Corbyn worked. So you're edging towards saying that there was nothing Corbyn could do to stop his leadership being destabilised.

 

[belboid]

Anything would have worked in 1997.

 

[brogdale]

I think we've already been over this...but...I've actually bothered to look it up now.(noticing today how quickly it got dark wot prompted it)

So, perhaps surprisingly (? it not being the Solstice - shortest day) Johnson seems to have chosen a date for the General Election which falls within the 5 day period of earliest sunsets (15:51pm). Although, because of the sunrise differences 12/12/19 has, in total 5 minutes more light than the days around the Solstice.



So, well done Johnson...you've actually determined GE day will, pretty much, feel like the shortest day to many folk. Heard some ERO or summat from the IoW (likely to have one of the latest sunset times) say that he reckoned that there'd be approx 7.5hrs of darkness for polling.

Anyway...nerding over.