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The 2019 General Election

Have to see how this plays out in terms of what will probably be unpredictable splits and shifts, but on the face of it it's a disaster for Labour. I suspect Farage will get a bit of stick for this and there will be a tiny boost for ukip, but the bigger picture is messy but good for the tories. It's up to Labour to present this as a capitulation by johnson, a hard right alliance etc.

Lib Dems are already doing this, using image of Borias in Falange's pocket.
 
Farage’s decision to stand aside in current Conservative-held seats and not in Labour-held seats that the Tories will be looking to gain will likely make very little difference.

YOU GOV's view, politics live

But, that's based on the idea the BP is going to stand in all Labour seats, Farage hasn't committed to doing that, and I doubt he will, considering his stated top priority is to avoid a hung parliament.
 
there's some figures in this article -

Our most recent data was collected right after the European Parliament elections in June when the Brexit party was briefly leading the polls. Taken together, the Brexit party drew 72% of its support from 2017 Conservatives and 17% from 2017 Labour voters. In Labour-held seats, this gap narrows slightly to 64% Conservatives and 24% Labour voters.

Opinium have a rising number of Labour/Leave voters returning to Labour (66% in their last poll) - I don't think you can assume this will hurt them.

the manifesto launch and response will be a key indicator.
 
1. It has, but the labour party have still held on to more than half of their 2017 leave supporters, which is currently on an upwards trend (we'll see if the latest from Farage changes this)
2. You have your percentages mixed up a bit here: 24% of the BP support was made up of Labour 2017 voters, not 24% of Labour 2017 voters voted BP in June. Either way, the EP elections are only a vague guide to Westminster voting intention at the best of times
3. A 'leave seat' is a pretty crude measure of anything - I live in a 'leave seat' where UKIP have generally polled fuck all and Labour dominate comfortably. That's not going to change here, and in plenty of other 'leave seats'

On 1 it’s already lost 2015 voters and it’s new policy of a ‘People’s Vote’ has yet to be put to the electorate. So it’s purely speculative but it wouldn’t be a massive surprise if further leave voters gets desert them now.

On 2, you are right - I did. But even so these are relatively big numbers (albeit in small turnouts)

Finally. I don’t know where you live, but in the West Midlands Bexit is likely to be a bigger issue than in 2017. Then, a lot of people (including Labour voters) assumed it was settled and voted on other issues. Given what’s happened since this won’t be the case this time round.
 
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You don’t think the fact that in the previous election you refer to Labour stood on a platform of respecting and enacting the referendum result?

That might well be a factor, it's true, but technically Labour are still committed to negotiating their own Brexit deal and hopefully that will be in the manifesto and not too hideously undermined by the Labour right.

Hopefully.
 
That might well be a factor, it's true, but technically Labour are still committed to negotiating their own Brexit deal and hopefully that will be in the manifesto and not too hideously undermined by the Labour right.

Hopefully.

It’ll be interesting to see how labour portrays its own policy for sure. To date, the policy has not been communicated clearly and precisely because shadow cabinet ministers have clouded the issue with their own spin/position on it
 
It’ll be interesting to see how labour portrays its own policy for sure. To date, the policy has not been communicated clearly and precisely because shadow cabinet ministers have clouded the issue with their own spin/position on it

Yeah, I agree it's a mess. But I think as long as Corbyn can get across that he doesn't want to cancel Brexit, the rest of the bullshit won't matter too much and hopefully they won't lose too many voters to the BP and that even if they do it won't be on the scale that Southern Tories lose votes to the Lib Dems.
 
Would you be up for having no deal on the ballot paper?
Yes, in a two stage process as mentioned by others.

Or put another way, whatever happens in the end needs to have a majority. If >50% of voters chose no deal at the first stage then we go with that. If not, then you look for a majority on a choice between the two highest polling options.
 
Yes, in a two stage process as mentioned by others.

Or put another way, whatever happens in the end needs to have a majority. If >50% of voters chose no deal at the first stage then we go with that. If not, then you look for a majority on a choice between the two highest polling options.

Interesting. How would you feel if no deal won?
 
Interesting. How would you feel if no deal won?
Maybe there needs to be a bit more honesty about what 'no deal' means. It means 'crash out, period of chaos, then a deal'. It doesn't mean 'no deal' at all. A massive amount of bollocks has been spouted on this issue (not aimed at you particularly), as if crashing out were the end of the process rather than just a really crap way to start it.
 
Maybe there needs to be a bit more honesty about what 'no deal' means. It means 'crash out, period of chaos, then a deal'. It doesn't mean 'no deal' at all. A massive amount of bollocks has been spouted on this issue (not aimed at you particularly), as if crashing out were the end of the process rather than just a really crap way to start it.

You're not really answering the question.

In any case, I am sure during the referendum campaign this point could be made.
 
You're not really answering the question.

In any case, I am sure during the referendum campaign this point could be made.
I answered the question upthread. 'no deal' can't in good faith be put in a referendum as an option. Those charged with enacting it would use the ref result as cover to avoid responsibility for the shit that would be its consequence.
 
Lol

Nigel Farage admits he was offered a peerage 48 hours before election U-turn

Nigel Farage admits he was offered a peerage 48 hours before election U-turn

The peerage claim seems a bit weird/off message. Farage is basically saying "I'm not going to stand everywhere to help Johnson win, but that guy was so desperate he offered me a peerage, which I turned down because I don't want it."

Agree its probably as much about pressure from activists and financial pressure as much as anything.
 
I answered the question upthread. 'no deal' can't in good faith be put in a referendum as an option. Those charged with enacting it would use the ref result as cover to avoid responsibility for the shit that would be its consequence.

That sounds a bit like you think it would win. And probably lots of people would be worried it would win, and wouldn't want it on the ballot paper. Which is why it won't work teuchter.

Could people take the discussion about a second referendum, which appears highly unlikely anyway, to the brexit thread?

Sorry.
 
Finally. I don’t know where you live, but in the West Midlands Bexit is likely to be a bigger issue than in 2017. Then, a lot of people (including Labour voters) assumed it was settled and voted on other issues. Given what’s happened since this won’t be the case this time round.
I'm sure - my only point there was that a 'leave seat' covers a lot of different types of seat, with lots of different things in play - you can't generalise about them in the way you were doing.
 
Finally. I don’t know where you live, but in the West Midlands Bexit is likely to be a bigger issue than in 2017. Then, a lot of people (including Labour voters) assumed it was settled and voted on other issues. Given what’s happened since this won’t be the case this time round.

What are you basing that on?

Anecdotally, although in my city (Nottingham) most people voted leave, few people are that bothered about it compared to various other issues. Brexit or no Brexit the city will return 3 Labour MPs as it always does and Broxtowe next door is likely to swing to Labour as well.
 
Green candidate stands down and throws support behind Labour

A Green candidate in Bristol has stood down and backed labour in an apparent fuck you to her party's 'remain alliance' bullshit.

Awesome, they could’ve run a picture of the guy the story actually refers to, but went instead with a headline image of the pretty blonde labour candidate and lower down the page, three attractive female members of the Green Party leadership.

Article edited by an old bloke in a raincoat, no doubt.
 
I'm sure - my only point there was that a 'leave seat' covers a lot of different types of seat, with lots of different things in play - you can't generalise about them in the way you were doing.

There are lots of different types of leave seats. Posh ones in the south of England, rural ones, coastal ones and those in deindustrialised towns in the Midlands, North and Wales.

But it’s entirely legitimate to ask a) the extent to which Labour’s policy shift on Brexit will affect its vote in all of these type of seat and b) if a ‘leave alliance’ where one leave candidate from the BP/Tories runs against Labour what the effect would be and also what happen if the BP/Tories are both competitive in these type of seats.

I‘ll also be interested to see how Labour candidates who voted for Johnson’s deal like Lisa Nandy do.

You seem to take the view that these aren’t significant points. We will have to disagree
 
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What are you basing that on?

Anecdotally, although in my city (Nottingham) most people voted leave, few people are that bothered about it compared to various other issues. Brexit or no Brexit the city will return 3 Labour MPs as it always does and Broxtowe next door is likely to swing to Labour as well.

According to a yougov survey brexit is the biggest issue, we could take that with a pinch salt, but the lead is massive.

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Bearing in mind remain has been ahead in the polls for some time now some recalibration of what constitutes a 'leave seat' is required, even for those who insist on running with the idea that nobody is voting about anything besides the EU in this election.
 
What are you basing that on?

Anecdotally, although in my city (Nottingham) most people voted leave, few people are that bothered about it compared to various other issues. Brexit or no Brexit the city will return 3 Labour MPs as it always does and Broxtowe next door is likely to swing to Labour as well.

Anecdotal too, also feedback from Labour Party members who’ve been out and about in the Black Country and other peripheral places around the City. I’ve got no doubt Labour will do well in Birmingham, even though it narrowly voted leave. But the election isn’t going to be won or lost in the cities.
 
According to a yougov survey brexit is the biggest issue, we could take that with a pinch salt, but the lead is massive.

View attachment 189701
Despite my deep misgivings about their recent absurd action on public transport; props to XR, increasing the environment % to that extent in the context of all else falling away in the face of Brexit...impressive.
 
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Bearing in mind remain has been ahead in the polls for some time now some recalibration of what constitutes a 'leave seat' is required, even for those who insist on running with the idea that nobody is voting about anything besides the EU in this election.

The reason that nobody has done that type of ‘recalibration’ is because the remain ‘lead’ is too marginal for it to be considered significant. In fact it’s lower than the ‘lead’ it had before the referendum
 
The reason that nobody has done that type of ‘recalibration’ is because the remain ‘lead’ is too marginal for it to be considered significant. In fact it’s lower than the ‘lead’ it had before the referendum

You can't use inverted commas three times in a two-sentence post it just looks silly.
 
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