The 2019 General Election

[Smokeandsteam]

I think the key points are what he said, “if we field 600 candidates there will be a hung parliament".

And, what he didn't say, he didn't say they would stand in every Labour seat.


I'll be surprised if they stand in more than around 40-50 seats.

I think so too. In a lot of seats in the Midlands, North and Wales a single leave candidate would be necessary to overturn Labour. The question is which party in each seat. If they do a deal on that, and get it right, Labour are done.

Labour’s position on Brexit is a toxic mess in these areas

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I think so too. In a lot of leave seats in the Midlands, North and Wales one leave candidate would be necessary to overturn Labour. The question is which party in each seat. If they get that right Labour are done

I guess we should stop behing surprised, but I really would be surprised if the Tories stood down any candidates in British constituencies. I think it could backfire spectacularly if they were to do that, and I don't see how they can make the political case for it to their own supporters.

 

[Wilf]

Have to see how this plays out in terms of what will probably be unpredictable splits and shifts, but on the face of it it's a disaster for Labour. I suspect Farage will get a bit of stick for this and there will be a tiny boost for ukip, but the bigger picture is messy but good for the tories. It's up to Labour to present this as a capitulation by johnson, a hard right alliance etc.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I guess we should stop behing surprised, but I really would be surprised if the Tories stood down any candidates in British constituencies. I think it could backfire spectacularly if they were to do that, and I don't see how they can make the political case for it to their own supporters.

400 years of political history says you are right. But these are not normal times. A possibility is that they could compromise by fielding a paper only candidate and agree not to campaign.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Have to see how this plays out in terms of what will probably be unpredictable splits and shifts, but on the face of it it's a disaster for Labour. I suspect Farage will get a bit of stick for this and there will be a tiny boost for ukip, but the bigger picture is messy but good for the tories. It's up to Labour to present this as a capitulation by johnson, a hard right alliance etc.

Your last bit shows the opportunity this might represent. It could help Labour hold on to a few seats, I'd have thought.

 

[JimW]

So presume they'll stand in Stroud which Drew won by a few hundred votes, hard to say if they'll take more labour than Tory votes there, he got over the line on a personal vote last time I reckon.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I guess we should stop behing surprised, but I really would be surprised if the Tories stood down any candidates in British constituencies. I think it could backfire spectacularly if they were to do that, and I don't see how they can make the political case for it to their own supporters.

I don't expect any Tories to stand down, and I think Farage knows that.

Although they may decide not to campaign in a few areas to give the BP a free run.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Re impact on labour vote - if it's BXP standing aside just in tory held seats but standing in labour seats where tories a threat then could help labour couldn't it?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Re impact on labour vote - if it's BXP standing aside just in tory held seats but standing in labour seats where tories a threat then could help labour couldn't it?

BIB - Farage didn't actually say that.

I think the key points are what he said, “if we field 600 candidates there will be a hung parliament".

And, what he didn't say, he didn't say they would stand in every Labour seat.

I'll be surprised if they stand in more than around 40-50 seats.

 

[JimW]

Re impact on labour vote - if it's BXP standing aside just in tory held seats but standing in labour seats where tories a threat then could help labour couldn't it?

That's what I meant about Stroud - tight Lab-Tory marginal, Lib Dems leaving it to Greens too.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Re impact on labour vote - if it's BXP standing aside just in tory held seats but standing in labour seats where tories a threat then could help labour couldn't it?

It depends on who they take votes from. In some seats I think you are right. In others the BP could take labour votes (which is what Farage thinks will happen)

 

[andysays]

BIB - Farage didn't actually say that.

What I've seen reported (BBC) is that they won't stand in the 317 seats won by Conservatives in 2017, but they will run against all other parties and focus on taking seats off Labour

 

[SpackleFrog]

I wasn't sure about a second referendum for a while because of the difficulties of deciding what the options would be. Now it's rather clearer what the 'deal' is. So let people choose: deal, no-deal or remain.

Would you be up for having no deal on the ballot paper?

 

[MickiQ]

Sounds like game over for the LP.

We will see, if we accept the belief that the BP take more votes from Tory than Labour then this will make it easier for the Tories to hang onto the marginals they already have but no easier to win the ones they need.
However rather than complaining about other parties conspiring against them Labour needs to get out and sell the message that they can run the country in a better and fairer way than the current shower and so far they don't seem to be doing a great job of that

 

[Pickman's model]

Would you be up for having no deal on the ballot paper?

fortunately the question won't rely on teuchter's answer

 

[cupid_stunt]

What I've seen reported (BBC) is that they won't stand in the 317 seats won by Conservatives in 2017, but they will run against all other parties and focus on taking seats off Labour

He has committed to not standing against the Tories in seats they won last time, he also said they will 'concentrate their efforts on all Labour held seats', but fell short of actually giving a commitment to stand in them all.

It's all in the wording, he's a fucking politician after all.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Anyway, what's Galloway's tipple?

He doesn't drink, "God knows who is and who is not a Muslim", remember.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

What I've seen reported (BBC) is that they won't stand in the 317 seats won by Conservatives in 2017, but they will run against all other parties and focus on taking seats off Labour

Yes. Thats what he said. But Farage said they were standing in 600 seats last week.

If you take a seat like Walsall at the moment you’d expect Labour to win the seat even though the majority of the vote will probably go to two leave candidates. It makes sense therefore for either the BP or Tories only to stand in these seats. Or at least decide which of them will ‘go for it’ with the other agreeing not to campaign.

If, as Farage suggests, there is now a ‘Leave Alliance’ this would be the only logical position to adopt

 

[Wilf]

So, there could be an element of this helps Labour keep their seats, but makes it harder to take Tory seats? Though all of that has to be cross cut with the issue of whether any particular seat - Lab or Con - was strongly leave or remain.

 

[marty21]

Farage bottled it , he was never going to get a deal from Boris. His strategy relies on the leave vote going to Boris in those Tory constituencies and on labour leavers being prepared to vote BP or Tory. It will depend on whether or not they think 5 more years of the Tories is worth it .

 

[8ball]

He doesn't drink, "God knows who is and who is not a Muslim", remember.

How does this work? Does it mean if you drink you're not a Muslim? Or that no one can say who is a Muslim or not, regardless of whether they drink.

 

[Dogsauce]

They’ll do what serves them/their paymasters best, same as any other party. I don’t think there will be a formal position, just whatever makes the end goal most likely.

 

[Smangus]

if nothing else it should (hopefully) clarify a few minds on the anti Tory front. I won't hold my breath though.

 

[SpackleFrog]

How does this work? Does it mean if you drink you're not a Muslim? Or that no one can say who is a Muslim or not, regardless of whether they drink.

"Many will remember the personal letter he sent around households, addressing voters of the Muslim faith and Pakistani heritage in Bradford West in 2012, in which he said: “I, George Galloway, do not drink alcohol and never have. Ask yourself if you believe the other candidate in this election can say that truthfully.”

In a concluding phrase, that led to the later revelation that Galloway had actually converted from Catholicism to Islam, he said: “God KNOWS who is a Muslim. And he KNOWS who is not. Instinctively, so do you”."

Is George Galloway really the authentic voice of all Muslims everywhere?

E2A: I don't think Galloway has ever actually said he is a Muslim for clarity but the fact he questions whether other Muslims are in fact Muslims means a lot of papers have said he is.

 

[8ball]

"Many will remember the personal letter he sent around households, addressing voters of the Muslim faith and Pakistani heritage in Bradford West in 2012, in which he said: “I, George Galloway, do not drink alcohol and never have. Ask yourself if you believe the other candidate in this election can say that truthfully.”

In a concluding phrase, that led to the later revelation that Galloway had actually converted from Catholicism to Islam, he said: “God KNOWS who is a Muslim. And he KNOWS who is not. Instinctively, so do you”."

Is George Galloway really the authentic voice of all Muslims everywhere?

Cheers, I'd totally forgotten about that.

 

[killer b]

It depends on who they take votes from. In some seats I think you are right. In others the BP could take labour votes (which is what Farage thinks will happen)

Historically BP/UKIP has always taken more Tory votes than it has done Labour. I can't see why we would expect to see any big changes as far as that's concerned in seats where the BP is standing.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Historically BP/UKIP has always taken more Tory votes than it has done Labour. I can't see why we would expect to see any big changes as far as that's concerned in seats where the BP is standing.

If anything, Farage talking up an alliance with Johnson will boost that trend I would have thought.

 

[Proper Tidy]

I'll be expecting libdem polling to sink now, with a brexit pact they are going to find it hard to stop voters swinging behind labour in all but a few seats

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Historically BP/UKIP has always taken more Tory votes than it has done Labour. I can't see why we would expect to see any big changes as far as that's concerned in seats where the BP is standing.

You don’t think the fact that in the previous election you refer to Labour stood on a platform of respecting and enacting the referendum result?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I'll be expecting libdem polling to sink now, with a brexit pact they are going to find it hard to stop voters swinging behind labour in all but a few seats

Shouldn't Corbyn be seeking to develop a remain alliance with the Lib Dems/Greens etc?