The 2019 General Election

[Mr Moose]

Mostly very posh. Tattenhall, Malpas - this is posh cheshire territory

Appealing to the millionaire footballer vote will be crucial.

 

[Crispy]

BXP election strategy: No "Leave Alliance" unless the govt. drops the Deal

 

[Pickman's model]

perhaps i was wrong and the only man in the land who can deliver a corbyn government is nigel farage

 

[Teaboy]

Yeseterday's Evening Standard was reporting how tory candidates in London marginals are pretending that brexit and Johnson don't exist in their literature. I bet if you live in a very pro brexit area the local tory will be hammering on about it relentlessly.

 

[cupid_stunt]

UKIP got 12.9% in the 2015 GE, yet the Tories still won with a majority, so I am not sure Johnson is going to be too worried about the current polling for the Brexit Party, esp. with Labour polling so low, and the LibDems so high.

Although, of course, it could all shift over the next few weeks.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

perhaps i was wrong and the only man in the land who can deliver a corbyn government is nigel farage

Unless their polling is telling them something radically different to what everyone else is seeing I am amazed by this.

Farage has clearly learnt nothing from the UKIP experience. At least 100 of the BP candidates will be head the balls, thereby damaging the brand beyond repair. They will be unable to flood resources in to winnable seats and will therefore end up with about 20-50 second places and zero MP's. Wow.

Johnson can't turn around and publicly rubbish his own deal and now Labour leave seats are likely to draft out of reach as the BP take 10-20% of the remain vote. This is the best news Corbyn has had for months. Who would have thought Farage would be the saviour of Labour..

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Of course Farage could just be bluffing/negotiating. And there is no doubt a split within their ranks on the best tactics. But any debate of the best tactics would automatically rule out the option he's just announced.

As I said yesterday, anyone making any assumptions about this election, is likely to be proven wrong.

I've been certain for months a leave alliance would emerge with Farage given a free run at Labour in 20-30 working class leave seats and the BP not standing against pro leave Tories.

What the fuck do I know eh?

Game on Jeremy....

 

[andysays]

Of course Farage could just be bluffing/negotiating. And there is no doubt a split within their ranks on the best tactics. But any debate of the best tactics would automatically rule out the option he's just announced.

As I said yesterday, anyone making any assumptions about this election, is likely to be proven wrong.

I've been certain for months a leave alliance would emerge with Farage given a free run at Labour in 20-30 working class leave seats and the BP not standing against pro leave Tories.

What the fuck do I know eh?

Game on Jeremy....

Sounds like Farage has been listening to his good friend Donald and is actually taking his advice seriously

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Sounds like Farage has been listening to his good friend Donald and is actually taking his advice seriously

It's either a stupid bluff (as he's demanding an unpayable price) or a determined bid to visit the dustbin of history. Either way, Labour has just been gifted 40 seats.

 

[Teaboy]

Brexit Party have a clear message which is their appeal. If Farage starts softening and moving towards Johnson's deal it will instantly make them an irrelevance I reckon. If they start trying to promote the line that no deal is possible under a Johnson government and that's why they can support it that might be a different matter. I'm not sure that would benefit Johnson especially.

 

[Flavour]

farage is being consistent with what he's been saying for years. the deal is shit, he can't support it. end of. i'm not that surprised. he's built such a massive brand over the years that's taken on an uncompromising "no deal" banner. there's no turning back. it's much more embarrasing for a politician with no actual power or responsibilites like farage to change his mind about something than it is for a PM like BJ who can blame the EU and so on

 

[killer b]

I'm not sure whether the Brexit Party being in the mix is a gift to Labour - UKIP standing aside in loads of seats in 2017 seemed to actually hurt the tory vote in those seats.

 

[killer b]

Stephen Bush's piece from yesterday: Nigel Farage's plan to pull out of seats could actually harm the Tories

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

I'm not sure any sort of deal is in Farage's interests really is it? This whole process of it being dragged out is working very nicely for him, probably much better than an actual Brexit in any form. After a no-deal it would probably be chaotic enough for him to keep himself in a prominent role sniping at any negotiations with Europe. A comfortable Tory majority voting through a deal though? Not sure where he'd go after that.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

I'm not sure whether the Brexit Party being in the mix is a gift to Labour - UKIP standing aside in loads of seats in 2017 seemed to actually hurt the tory vote in those seats.

And potentially in other seats too tbf - an explicit alliance with the Brexit Party is not going to convince any wavering remainy Tory voters to vote for them.

 

[teuchter]

All this nonsense with split votes, marginal seats and so on, all of which is just to do with tactical maneuvers rather than having any hope of reflecting what people actually want, is why there should have been a 2nd referendum before any general election.

 

[killer b]

But there was never the numbers in the current parliament to vote for a referendum, so whether it would have been better or not is moot.

 

[danny la rouge]

All this nonsense with split votes, marginal seats and so on, all of which is just to do with tactical maneuvers rather than having any hope of reflecting what people actually want, is why there should have been a 2nd referendum before any general election.

Well, if a referendum is to reflect what I “actually want” it needs to have an option for a European free federation of workers’ councils.

 

[ska invita]

farage is being consistent with what he's been saying for years.

not really, he was advocating a Norway model for years

 

[maomao]

I'm not sure any sort of deal is in Farage's interests really is it? This whole process of it being dragged out is working very nicely for him, probably much better than an actual Brexit in any form. After a no-deal it would probably be chaotic enough for him to keep himself in a prominent role sniping at any negotiations with Europe. A comfortable Tory majority voting through a deal though? Not sure where he'd go after that.

This is the peak of Farage's power before the election. Even if he got a dozen of his nutters into the HoC they're not actually a party and he wouldn't be able to control them. This is all about his position in the post Brexit/not Brexit fallout and his 'legacy'.

 

[8ball]

Well, if a referendum is to reflect what I “actually want” it needs to have an option for a European free federation of workers’ councils.

I'll go for that in lieu of better options.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Farage has clearly learnt nothing from the UKIP experience. At least 100 of the BP candidates will be head the balls, thereby damaging the brand beyond repair. They will be unable to flood resources in to winnable seats and will therefore end up with about 20-50 second places and zero MP's. Wow.

Which is interesting in itself because the EU elections very much showed signs of learning from UKIP and doing some decent vetting of candidates to weed out uber-loons

 

[8ball]

All this nonsense with split votes, marginal seats and so on, all of which is just to do with tactical maneuvers rather than having any hope of reflecting what people actually want, is why there should have been a 2nd referendum before any general election.

But there was never the numbers in the current parliament to vote for a referendum, so whether it would have been better or not is moot.

I think you are likely both right.

 

[Pickman's model]

All this nonsense with split votes, marginal seats and so on, all of which is just to do with tactical maneuvers rather than having any hope of reflecting what people actually want, is why there should have been a 2nd referendum before any general election.

only if you're in america. here it's tactical manoeuvres

 

[Proper Tidy]

Anybody looking at odds? I only bet on big political events nowadays, might stick a few quid on hung with same balance of power (tories need DUP)

 

[sleaterkinney]

Well, if a referendum is to reflect what I “actually want” it needs to have an option for a European free federation of workers’ councils.

Lexit has been delayed.

 

[8ball]

Anybody looking at odds? I only bet on big political events nowadays, might stick a few quid on hung with same balance of power (tories need DUP)

Yuck. Is that one of those bets you make so you'll feel a little better (or at least a little flusher) if it happens?

 

[Proper Tidy]

Yuck. Is that one of those bets you make so you'll feel a little better (or at least a little flusher) if it happens?

No it's to try and make money tbh

 

[8ball]

No it's to try and make money tbh

Fair enough. Can't say I personally want you to lose money, but...

 

[extra dry]

Turn out will be key.
Labour, I think, will sqeak in with 32-35%.
Other votes will be cons 28-30%
Brexit party 18%-20%
Libs 15-17%.